The impact of land use change on grain potential productivity is one of the most important topics in the research of land use/cover change and its effects. Western Jilin, located on the edge of an ecotone in northern China, and its land use have changed dramatically in recent decades, with significant impact on grain potential productivity. This study evaluated the grain potential productivity in different conditions and analyzed the response to land use change based on land use data, meteorological data and statistical data by using the Global Agro-ecological Zone model. Results showed that (1) grain potential productivity of Western Jilin in 2010 was 19.12 million tons, an increase of 34.8% over 1975 because of changes in land use and in climate; (2) due to land use change, grain potential productivity in the study area increased between 1975 and 2000, however, it decreased between 2000 and 2010; (3) conversion in type of land use and an increase in irrigation percentage caused grain potential productivity to increase by 0.70 million tons and 3.13 million tons respectively between 1975 and 2000; between 2000 and 2010, grain potential productivity had an increase of 0.17 million tons due to the increase in farmland area, but it decreased by 1.88 million tons because the irrigation percentage declined from 36.6% to 24.7%. Therefore, increasing investment in agriculture, improving land quality and increasing the conversion rate of grain potential productivity to actual production would be a better choice for ensuring national food security and achieving sustainable land use.
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