Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water and Food Security in Jordan: Implications for Transcending “The Tragedy of the Commons”
2. Study Area
3.1. Trends and Scenarios of Climate Change
|Basin||Temperature change (oC)||Precipitation change (%)|
|Jordan River north side wadis||+1||+2||+5||+10|
|Jordan River south side wadis||+1||+2||–10||–20|
|Dead Sea wadis||+1||+2||–5||–10|
|North Wadi Araba area||+1||+2||–10||–20|
|South Wadi Araba area||+1||+2||–10||–20|
|Southern Desert (Disi)||+1||+2||–10||–20|
3.2. Climate Change and Crop Production in Jordan
- Y = Olive production (ton),
- X1 = Average temperature in the considered months,
- X2 = Rainfall in November,
- X3 = Rainfall in December,
- X4 = Rainfall in January,
- X5 = Accumulated rainfall in March and
- X6 = Cultivated area (10–1 ha).
|Crop||Climate Change Scenario||Change in Yield||Reference|
3.3. Mapping of Land Use and Its Change
3.4. Climate Change and Water Deficit
3.5. Climate Change and Food Security
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Population Growth and Land Use Change
|Land use/cover||Irbed||Amman-Zarqa||Ajloun *|
|Mixed rainfed areas||42.4||39.8||29.4||35.4||39.4||36.9||29.7||50.0|
|Class||Year 2010||Year 2030||Year 2050|
|Mixed rainfed areas||3.8||3.3||2.7|
|Rangelands and non-cultivated areas||93.0||92.1||90.2|
|Water bodies (dams and TWW plants)||<0.1||0.1||0.1|
4.2. Climate Change Impact on Crop Production and Food Security
|ETc (mm)||Area (ha)||Production (×103 ton)||WUE (kg/ha/mm)||ETc (mm)||Area (ha)||Production (×103 ton)||WUE (kg/ha/mm)|
|Egg Plant||Deir Alla||267||532||17.2||121.1||305||389||11.3||95.2|
4.3. Climate Change Impact on Water Security
|2022||983 (1,000) *||120||20||494||1,617|
|2030||910 (1,037) *||150||35||580||1,675|
|2050||760 (937) *||220||48||760||1,788|
|Without climate change||With climate change|
|Supply without Red-Dead conveyor||1,144||1,360||1,460||1,540||1,292||1,314||1,232|
|Supply with Red-Dead conveyor||1,144||1,940||2,040||2,120||1,872||1,894||1,812|
|Water balance without Red-Dead conveyor||–420||–257||–215||–248||–374||–488||–769|
|Water balance with Red-Dead conveyor||––||323||365||332||206||92||–189|
4.4. Implications for Building Adaptive Capacity
- Modification of cropping patternThis adaptation measure was supported by findings from this study, which showed that some crops had lower WUE than other crops, i.e., they consumed more water and produced less food. Among these irrigated crops are banana and olives. Also, WUE would differ from one geographical location to another. For example, WUE for potato in Deir Alla (in Jordan Valley) would reach 86 kg/ha/mm compared to 52 kg/ha/mm for the same crop in Rum (desert area). These figures would favor the cultivation of potato in the Jordan Valley rather than in the highlands. This adaptation measure would also include the intrusion of new crop varieties with high WUE.
- Improvement of irrigation efficiencySince climate change scenarios would reduce WUE and since the current irrigation efficiency was relatively low (65%), adaptation measures should include the improvement of irrigation systems efficiency. This adaptation measure “more crop per drop” would increase production and WUE without developing new water resources.
- Reuse of treated wastewaterDue to population growth, more wastewater would be generated from urban and rural areas. Therefore, this source of water should be developed and utilized in a sustainable manner. One option would be the reuse of treated wastewater for irrigating fodder crops, provided that water would meet the standards for its reuse. Also, soil suitability for this option should be investigated .
- Water demand management optionsThis measure should include the control and/or reallocation of water consumption among sectors of utilization. Demand management would also encompass the institutional arrangements supervising the water sector and the allocation patterns to avoid conflicts among sectors.
- Water supply management optionsFindings from this study showed that the Red-Dead conveyor would be the main water supply to narrow the gap between supply and demand. The other options might include the improvement of efficiency of water use at the system level and the development of marginal water resources of brackish and treated wastewater.
- Capacity building and public awareness campaignsAdaptation measures would not be achieved without creating public awareness as means to knowledge transfer and to helping people develop attitudes necessary to adopt practices and formulate new positive behavior patterns towards water conservation. Although the problem of water scarcity had been recognized at the community level, however, transfer of knowledge and technology would be needed to implement adaptation measures.
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Al-Bakri, J.T.; Salahat, M.; Suleiman, A.; Suifan, M.; Hamdan, M.R.; Khresat, S.; Kandakji, T. Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water and Food Security in Jordan: Implications for Transcending “The Tragedy of the Commons”. Sustainability 2013, 5, 724-748. https://doi.org/10.3390/su5020724
Al-Bakri JT, Salahat M, Suleiman A, Suifan M, Hamdan MR, Khresat S, Kandakji T. Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water and Food Security in Jordan: Implications for Transcending “The Tragedy of the Commons”. Sustainability. 2013; 5(2):724-748. https://doi.org/10.3390/su5020724Chicago/Turabian Style
Al-Bakri, Jawad Taleb, Mohammad Salahat, Ayman Suleiman, Marwan Suifan, Mohammad R. Hamdan, Saeb Khresat, and Tarek Kandakji. 2013. "Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Water and Food Security in Jordan: Implications for Transcending “The Tragedy of the Commons”" Sustainability 5, no. 2: 724-748. https://doi.org/10.3390/su5020724