Water Surface Ratio and Inflow Rate of Paddy Polder Under the Stella Nitrogen Cycle Model

To address the challenge of optimizing hydrological parameters for nitrogen pollution control in paddy polders, this study coupled the Stella eco-dynamics model with an external optimization algorithm and developed a nonlinear programming framework using the water surface ratio and inflow rate as decision variables and the maximum nitrogen removal rate as the objective function. The simulation and optimization conducted for the Hongze Lake polder area indicated that the model exhibited strong robustness, as verified through Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis, with coefficients of variation (CV) of nitrogen outlet concentrations all below 3%. Under the optimal regulation scheme, the maximum nitrogen removal rates (${\eta }_1$, ${\eta }_2$, and ${\eta }_4$) during the soaking, tillering, and grain-filling periods reached 98.86%, 98.74%, and 96.26%, respectively. The corresponding optimal inflow rates ($Q^{*}$) were aligned with the lower threshold limits of each growth period (1.20, 0.80, and 0.50 m³/s). The optimal channel water surface ratios ($A_1^{*}$) were 3.81%, 3.51%, and 3.34%, respectively, while the optimal pond water surface ratios ($A_2^{*}$) were 19.94%, 16.30%, and 17.54%, respectively. Owing to the agronomic conflict between “water retention without drainage” and concentrated fertilization during the heading period, the maximum nitrogen removal rate (${\eta }_3$) during this stage was only 37.34%. The optimal channel water surface ratio ($A_1^{*}$) was 2.37%, the pond water surface ratio ($A_2^{*}$) was 19.04%, and the outlet total nitrogen load increased to 8.39 mg/L. Morphological analysis demonstrated that nitrate nitrogen and organic nitrogen dominated the outlet water body. The “simulation–optimization” coupled framework established in this study can provides quantifiable decision-making tools and methodological support for the precise control and sustainable management of agricultural non-point source pollution in the floodplain area.