Navigating the Bioeconomy: Using Delphi-SWOT to Build Robust Strategies for Sustainable Growth

Abstract

This study aims to demonstrate the effectiveness of the Delphi SWOT tool in formulating a bio-economy strategy for an isolated region. The analysis will highlight the management and planning aspects that are essential for assessing the internal and external circumstances of the region. A total of 16 experts were selected to participate in the Delphi method, which was used to investigate the current state of the bio-economy in the agricultural sector of a small isolated region in Greece. Following the convergence of the experts’ opinions, a SWOT analysis and a set of policy recommendations for the formulation of a bioeconomy strategy were derived. The formulation of a bioeconomy strategy in an isolated region reveals a promising landscape full of opportunities, but also full of challenges. The region has a number of intrinsic advantages that can be used to advance the bioeconomy. The focus on an isolated region limits the applicability of the findings to other regions with different socio-economic contexts. In addition, the Delphi method relies on expert opinion, which is inherently subjective. The bioeconomy concept has the potential to address the challenges faced by a small, mountainous, rural region whose economy has historically been based on energy production from lignite. To facilitate a sustainable transition, it is essential to harness the region’s human capital, promote sustainable agricultural practices, develop innovative products and processes, and establish new value chains that can stimulate economic growth.

1. Introduction

The bioeconomy is an emerging sector that is characterized by a dynamic evolution, signifying a shift towards more sustainable and environmentally conscious economic practices [1]. According to the European Commission, the bioeconomy encompasses “the production of renewable biological resources and the conversion of these resources and waste streams into value-added products, such as food, feed, bio-based products and bioenergy [2]. The bioeconomy continues to expand in line with evolving technology and societal values, highlighting the growing urgency for sustainable solutions. As scientific and technological advances continue, the bioeconomy is poised to expand its scope across a range of economic sectors and industries [3]. It is expected to have a profound and lasting impact on numerous facets of everyday life, including the products utilized, the means of energy production, and the management of resources. Furthermore, the bioeconomy offers a promising path towards sustainable agriculture through the use of renewable biological resources for the production of food, feed, energy, and bio-based products [4]. However, there are challenges to implementing this approach.

One of the main barriers to the implementation of the bioeconomy in agriculture is the restricted scope of available technology and infrastructure, particularly in small and isolated regions [5]. The transition towards an organic farming system necessitates the utilization of sophisticated technologies and the establishment of suitable infrastructure to ensure the optimal utilization of biological resources [6]. However, these resources may not be readily available or accessible to all farmers and enterprises, particularly in developing regions. Nevertheless, the absence of such facilities and infrastructure can be a significant barrier. Farmers may find it difficult to identify nearby processing facilities, which can lead to logistical difficulties and increased transports costs. Inadequate infrastructure can also impede the efficient distribution of organically produced products to markets, thereby hindering the development of the bioeconomy in agriculture [3]. It can be concluded that the success of the bioeconomy is inextricably linked to market demand and economic sustainability [7]. Despite the increasing interest in organic products, market demand remains uncertain and variable. This presents a significant challenge for farmers and businesses considering investment in bioeconomy initiatives. In the absence of a stable market, the profitability and sustainability of organic farming practices may be at risk [8].

The implementation of the bioeconomy in agricultural practices has the potential to transform the manner in which food is produced, the utilization of resources and the mitigation of environmental challenges. The bioeconomy, which harnesses renewable biological resources, has the potential to promote sustainability, enhance resource efficiency and stimulate economic growth [9]. One of the most significant advantages of implementing the bioeconomy in agriculture is the enhanced resource efficiency and cyclicality [10]. The bioeconomy facilitates the efficient utilization of biological resources, thereby reducing waste generation and optimizing resource utilization [11]. Agricultural waste and by-products can be transformed into valuable raw materials for the production of bioenergy or the manufacture of biomass-based products [12,13]. This approach serves to minimize dependence on finite resources and to advance the implementation of a circular economy model in which waste is transformed into a valuable input for new processes and products [12]. The optimization of resource utilization is a key aspect of the bioeconomy, contributing to the sustainability of agricultural practices and the reduction of environmental impacts. Furthermore, the bioeconomy presents farmers with the opportunity to diversify their income streams [14]. The diversification of income sources serves to enhance the resilience of farming systems, reduce dependence on traditional commodity markets and improve the overall economic stability of rural communities [15].

Moreover, the implementation of the bioeconomy in agriculture can also make a substantial contribution to rural development and job creation. The establishment of industries based on organic products necessitates a skilled workforce and investment in local infrastructure [16]. Such industries have the potential to revitalize rural areas by providing new employment opportunities and enhancing economic growth. Additionally, the bioeconomy encourages the utilization of local resources, thereby reducing the necessity for long-distance transportation and the formation of local value chains. This aspect of localization has the potential to facilitate the development of economically robust rural communities, thereby reducing the appeal of rural-to-urban migration [17].

The bioeconomy thus assumes a pivotal role in the mitigation of climate change. The bioeconomy makes a contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuels with renewable bioenergy sources, including biomass and biogas [18]. The production of energy from biomass can serve as an alternative to the utilization of fossil fuels in the domains of heating, electricity generation and transport. Such substitution results in a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and contributes to efforts to combat climate change. Furthermore, sustainable agricultural practices within the bioeconomy, such as organic and precision agriculture, have the potential to enhance soil health and facilitate carbon sequestration [19]. The adoption of regenerative practices, including cover crops, agroforestry and conservation agriculture, can facilitate the sequestration of carbon in agricultural soils, thereby reducing atmospheric carbon levels [20]. The bioeconomy thus presents an opportunity to transition to low-carbon agricultural systems, thereby mitigating the impacts of climate change while ensuring food security [19].

As evidenced in the literature, the implementation of the bioeconomy in agriculture has the potential to drive innovation and research within the agricultural sector [21,22,23]. Concurrently, it facilitates the advancement of novel technologies, methodologies and commodities that augment agricultural yield, efficacy and sustainability. The bioeconomy fosters collaboration between scientists, farmers, and businesses, facilitating technological advancement and fostering knowledge exchange. Research and development efforts in the bioeconomy encompass a range of areas, including crop improvement, biotechnology and sustainable agricultural practices. This research contributes to the enhancement of agricultural productivity and resilience, the improvement of crop characteristics and the development of innovative solutions for the management of resources. Furthermore, the bioeconomy offers a forum for interdisciplinary collaboration, uniting experts from diverse fields such as agriculture, biotechnology, engineering and environmental science. Such collaborative endeavors have the potential to yield groundbreaking innovations that will not only benefit the agricultural sector but also have a positive impact on society as a whole.

The study addresses a research gap concerning the strategic development of the bioeconomy in rural regions, with a particular focus on Western Macedonia, particularly in the context of the post-lignite era. While numerous studies have been conducted on the bioeconomy in general, the originality of this study lies in its focus on the evaluation of the Delphi-SWOT tool for strategy development in specific regions and the provision of policy recommendations for the bioeconomy. The aim is to enhance innovation and improve social cohesion at the local level. This research addresses the gap between bioeconomy theory and the practical strategies that can be adopted in areas with specific economic and social needs.

The originality of this manuscript is its assertion that the bioeconomy has the potential to confer a multitude of economic, environmental and social benefits upon the region of Western Macedonia, a region undergoing a period of transition. In the post-agricultural era, the bioeconomy has the potential to harness the human capital of the region by promoting sustainable agricultural practices, developing innovative products and processes, and creating new value chains that can generate new economic activity. The advancement of the bioeconomy in Western Macedonia has the potential to yield considerable social advantages for the region. These include the advent of novel opportunities for education and training, the development of new infrastructure and the promotion of social cohesion. This can assist rural communities in attracting and retaining a skilled workforce, thereby enhancing their economic standing and quality of life.

The objective of this study is to evaluate the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats pertaining to the bioeconomy in the region of Western Macedonia, with a view to formulating a strategy. The efficacy of the Delphi-SWOT tool in strategy development at the regional level will be demonstrated, elucidating aspects of management and planning for the assessment of the internal and external situation of the region, as well as the identification of the challenges and opportunities it faces.

The results of the Delphi-SWOT tool informed the internal and external environment of the bioeconomy in the region of Western Macedonia. Subsequently, they contributed to the formulation of policy proposals for the exploitation of the bioeconomic potential of the region, the promotion of innovation, the promotion of sustainable practices and the creation of a thriving and resilient bioeconomy that contributes to local prosperity and the global sustainable development goals. The region is characterized by a rich natural environment, including extensive forest areas, mountainous landscapes, and a significant variety of agricultural land. Soils are generally of moderate fertility, and climatic conditions range from continental to mountainous, with cold winters and dry summers—suitable for specific types of crops and livestock farming. Water resources are present but unevenly distributed across the territory. Farm sizes tend to be small to medium, often fragmented, and the land ownership structure includes a mix of private holdings and communal or family-owned plots. These factors shape the potential and constraints of bioeconomic development in Western Macedonia.

To address the challenges and opportunities related to bioeconomy development in Western Macedonia, the present study is guided by the following research questions:

• What are the internal strengths and weaknesses and the external opportunities and threats related to the development of the bioeconomy in the region of Western Macedonia, as perceived by key stakeholders?
• How effective is the Delphi-SWOT methodology as a tool for strategy formulation in the context of regional bioeconomy development?
• What policy recommendations can be derived from the SWOT analysis to support a sustainable bioeconomic transition in the region?

These research questions provide a clear framework for the methodological design, data analysis and discussion of findings presented in this study.

The manuscript is comprised of six sections. Section 2 presents a review of the literature on the development of strategies for the bioeconomy. This is followed by Section 3, which outlines the research area, research methods and context. Section 4 presents the results. Section 5 discusses the limitations of the research and presents a discussion of the findings. Finally, Section 6 outlines the conclusions, the proposed strategy pillars and areas for future research.

2. Literature Review

An increasing number of countries have adopted a bioeconomy strategy or policy. As the two terms are frequently used interchangeably, the term ‘bioeconomy strategy’ will be employed in the following text to refer to policy or strategy documents formally adopted by national governments or parliaments. In order to gain a deeper understanding of the bioeconomy strategies that countries have developed, it is useful to consider the comparative advantage that a country has in developing different components of the bioeconomy. Porter’s diamond model offers a conceptual framework that can be employed to ascertain the competitive advantage of a country that has adopted a bioeconomy strategy [24].

The four key elements of the model that determine a country’s competitive advantage for bioeconomy development are factor conditions, demand conditions, firm structure, strategy and competition, and related and supporting industries [24]. Moreover, Poku et al. [25] identify five key factors that are pertinent to the advancement of the bioeconomy. The first factor is the natural condition of a country, which has a significant impact on its competitiveness and competitive advantage in the context of biomass production. It can be observed that countries which possess a high level of soil sufficiency, favorable climatic conditions and a low population density are more likely to possess a comparative advantage in the development of biomass resources [26]. Conversely, countries with access to marine resources may choose to emphasize this aspect.

The second factor influencing the development of the bioeconomy is the labor force. While the influence of government interventions on natural resources is limited, the same cannot be said for the significant impact they can have on the specialization of the workforce in the bioeconomy, particularly through investment in education and vocational training [27]. The advancement of the bioeconomy necessitates the cultivation of particular competencies amongst the workforce to ensure their capacity to navigate and thrive within this evolving economic landscape [28]. The third factor is that of knowledge resources. These constitute one of the most significant instruments at the disposal of governments seeking to develop their bioeconomies through investment in public research. The concept of a ‘knowledge-based bioeconomy’ places particular emphasis on this aspect. Similarly, investment in research and innovation constitutes an essential component of the majority of strategies pertaining to the bioeconomy [29]. Given the pivotal role of private sector research in the advancement of the bioeconomy, it is similarly vital to foster an environment conducive to such endeavors. A fourth factor that is pertinent to the advancement of the bioeconomy is the availability of capital resources. The advancement of the bioeconomy is contingent upon investments across the entirety of the value chain, encompassing research and marketing [30]. The availability of capital, in particular venture capital for risky investments, is a necessary condition for the development of the bioeconomy. Finally, infrastructure is of equal importance. It is incumbent upon governments to provide the requisite infrastructure to facilitate the development of the bioeconomy, with particular emphasis on the areas of transport and information and communication technologies [31].

A key driver for the development of the bioeconomy is strong consumer demand for products of organic origin. Governments can promote labels for bio-based products, conduct information campaigns and encourage social dialogue [32]. Governments can also implement public procurement rules that stimulate demand for bio-based products.

One common feature of bioeconomy strategies globally is the prioritization of cluster development [33]. The concept of industrial clusters or innovation clusters is predicated on the recognition that the development of the bioeconomy necessitates the establishment of a robust, regionally integrated network of industries that are interrelated and mutually supportive along the value chain, providing specialized inputs and services [34]. Furthermore, clusters benefit from the close interaction of research organizations, start-ups (often spin-offs), and companies with the capacity to engage in product development and access large markets. It has been demonstrated that governments lack the capacity to establish clusters from the outset.

Despite the growing body of literature on bioeconomy transitions, existing studies often emphasize national or sectoral strategies, with limited empirical focus on post-industrial or peripheral regions. There is a notable gap in applied research that combines foresight methodologies with regional-level strategic planning. This study addresses that gap by applying a Delphi-SWOT approach specifically designed to capture stakeholder insight and guide bioeconomy development in a transitioning region like Western Macedonia.

3. Materials and Methods

3.1. Research Area

Western Macedonia (Figure 1) continues to demonstrate a pronounced specialization in the mining and energy production of lignite, a fuel source that has been supplying energy to the entire country for decades. Nevertheless, the lignite industry has not generated substantial industrial spillovers, which could otherwise stimulate further industrial growth and offset the losses associated with lignification. The degree of specialization in other productive sectors is relatively limited. The monoculture of lignite has resulted in a high level of economic dependence and vulnerability in the region, with the consequence that the entire region will be affected by lignification in a variety of ways [35]. Furthermore, regions such as Western Macedonia exhibit markedly low levels of expenditure on research and development (R&D) in comparison to the national average. The evidence indicates that the local research and production base, the public sector and the private sector have all demonstrated a limited capacity to innovate, to support innovation and to make structural adjustments to increase competitiveness.

A review of previous studies for the region indicates that approximately 10.6 thousand jobs will be lost as a result of de-lignification by 2029, comprising direct, indirect and induced employment. This represents a decline compared to the figure for 2019. Furthermore, it is estimated that the loss of gross value added in the region will exceed EUR 1 billion by 2029 (in comparison to 2019), representing 26% of the region’s gross domestic product [36,37]. The impact of the aforementioned changes will compound the challenges faced by an already vulnerable socio-economic system [38,39]. The region is characterized by a low population density, accompanied by a range of negative demographic indicators and an ageing population. The region exhibits particularly adverse social indicators, including elevated unemployment rates, particularly among women and young people, elevated rates of youth migration, and elevated poverty rates.

3.2. Research Methods and Context

The Delphi method is a structured communication technique that is employed to gather expert opinions and to make informed decisions or predictions on a specific topic [40,41]. In other words, it is a qualitative research approach. The objective is to establish a consensus among a group of experts through the systematic collection and analysis of their feedback. The process comprises several rounds of questionnaires or surveys, with controlled feedback mechanisms designed to encourage convergence of views. Following each round, experts receive summaries of previous responses, allowing them to assess the range of opinions within the group. Through this iterative approach, the Delphi method allows for the refinement and adaptation of views over time, leading to a more refined and collective view [41,42].

In the present study, the formulation of the Delphi theses was based on a rigorous process involving a literature review and consultations with local agencies and stakeholders. This process resulted in the identification of seven thematic problem areas that reflect the main challenges and opportunities for the bioeconomy in the Region of Western Macedonia. These thematic areas include regional resources, human capital readiness, current bioeconomy implementation, barriers to adoption, adoption factors, strategic development axes and external environmental influences. Each theme was translated into a set of targeted questions posed to the experts, and the resulting responses constituted the core data for the Delphi process.

Furthermore, we ensured verification of expert evaluations through several mechanisms. The Delphi method included two iterative rounds with controlled feedback. After the first round, experts were presented with anonymized summary results and invited to revise their judgments in light of group feedback. This method promotes convergence and consistency in expert opinions. Additionally, responses were numerically ranked, allowing us to quantify agreement levels across statements. Only the most highly rated responses were included in the final SWOT analysis. The use of the Triple Helix model in expert selection also enhanced the reliability of the evaluation, offering a triangulated perspective from academia, public institutions and industry.

We have also expanded this section to explicitly include the basic assumptions of the Delphi method, which are foundational to its application:

• Anonymity of expert participants, which reduces the influence of dominant individuals and allows for independent thinking.
• Iterative rounds of questioning with controlled feedback, which enable participants to refine their views.
• Statistical aggregation of responses, ensuring systematic analysis.
• The assumption that group consensus can provide more reliable outcomes than individual opinions alone.

The advantages of the Delphi method in this context include its capacity to address complex, interdisciplinary problems; its suitability for situations where empirical data are scarce; and its ability to capture informed judgments from experts across diverse sectors.

However, the method also has limitations, such as reliance on expert opinion (which may be subjective), the potential for bias in expert selection, and the time-consuming nature of multiple rounds. These were mitigated in this study through structured questionnaire design, controlled feedback, and the application of a clearly defined selection framework (Triple Helix model).

In addition, we provide below a detailed description of the research procedure to ensure clarity and replicability:

• A literature review and stakeholder interviews were conducted to identify key thematic areas relevant to the bioeconomy in Western Macedonia.
• Based on this, a structured first-round questionnaire was developed, featuring seven thematic groups with multiple statements per group.
• Sixteen experts were selected using the Triple Helix model (academia, public sector, private sector).
• In the first round, experts were asked to rate up to three statements per thematic group.
• The responses were aggregated and hierarchically ranked (presented in

  Table 1. Hierarchical sorting of Delphi results’ first round.

  Question	Rating
  1. Available Resources for Bioeconomy Development
  Available resources exist in agriculture and livestock sectors	39
  Resources available in the forestry sector	22
  Water resources are usable	13
  Resources span across all areas	4
  No exploitable resources (disagreed)	0
  2. Human Capital Readiness
  Yes, with proper training	36
  Training is essential for success	27
  Reluctance to adopt innovation	10
  Ageing population is a challenge	8
  Population size is insufficient	3
  3. Current Implementation
  Project is at an early stage	35
  Adopted through conventional methods	20
  Traditional practices without awareness	16
  Fully developed concept	2
  Not applicable	0
  4. Adoption Barriers
  Lack of planning by authorities	29
  Lack of incentives	18
  Lack of information from the state	16
  Lack of staff knowledge	15
  Inability to adapt to innovation	6
  5. Adoption Factors
  Attract entrepreneurs to traditional sectors	32
  Support via Common Agricultural Policy	27
  Knowledge transfer to rural population	15
  Raise awareness of environmental benefits	12
  Strategic support by local agencies	12
  6. Strategy Axes
  Promote renewable energy and circular economy	28
  Support for innovation in circular economy	24
  Awareness and knowledge dissemination	17
  Sustainable resource management	15
  Enhance agricultural sector competitiveness	15
  7. External Influences
  European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)	23
  Inflation and rising energy costs	22
  Changing global dietary patterns	18
  Environmental commitments and policies	17
  Climate change	11
  Reduced energy supply	7

  Source: author’s own creation.

  ).
• A second-round questionnaire was created based on the top-ranked statements from Round 1.
• Experts reassessed the items in Round 2, and the results were further refined.
• The most significant results were used to construct the SWOT matrix (

  Table 2. SWOT matrix for the development of the bioeconomy.

  Strengths	Weaknesses
  1. Crop residues can be employed as a source of raw material for the production of biofuels or as animal feed. 2. Animal manure can be employed as a source of organic matter for the production of biogas through anaerobic digestion. 3. Energy crops have been cultivated with the specific purpose of being used as a raw material for the production of biofuels and other bioproducts. 4. The region is characterized by the presence of substantial infrastructure and energy transmission networks. The region boasts a substantial number of substations and grid lines, which could be utilized to support the integration of renewable energy sources, including solar, wind and hydropower.	1. A further factor contributing to the current situation is the lack of investment in infrastructure. It is essential to invest in the requisite infrastructure, such as biorefineries, in order to facilitate the growth of value chains. 2. The absence of value chains: It is necessary to identify potential value chains that can be developed in the area based on the available local resources. To illustrate, agricultural waste can be employed in the production of biofuels or bioplastics, whereas, forest residues can be utilized in the manufacture of bio-based chemicals. 3. A further challenge is the limited financial resources available. This may prove an impediment to the development of the bioeconomy.
  Opportunities	Threats
  1. Specialized training programmes are to be developed depending on the sector (agriculture, animal husbandry, mixed holding). This will be done following a needs assessment, which will determine the current knowledge and skills of the workforce in the area, as well as the knowledge and skills required for a bio-economic production model. 2. In collaboration with local agencies and industry partners, training opportunities are provided for participants, including internships, apprenticeships, and job shadowing. 3. The implementation of practical applications by trainers on specific farms. 4. It would be beneficial to provide financial incentives to young farmer-entrepreneurs in order to encourage them to invest in the bioeconomy. Such incentives may include tax benefits, grants and low-interest loans. 5. The establishment of bioeconomy support structures at the local and regional levels. It is thus possible to facilitate the acquisition of the skills and knowledge required for success in the bioeconomy by young farmer-entrepreneurs. Such assistance may encompass business development support, technical training, and mentoring. 6. The provision of incentives for the formation of collective bodies or co-operative schemes with the objective of exploiting an economy based on livelihoods. 7. The existence of considerable energy resources is a further factor to be taken into account. The region is a significant producer of biomass resources, including agricultural residues, forest residues and waste from livestock and food processing industries. Such resources may be employed in the production of biofuels, biogas and heat and electricity through cogeneration. 8. The potential for development within the circular economy, coupled with the availability of substantial quantities of urban waste that can be repurposed, represents a significant opportunity. Thus far, there has been no utilization of reusable materials. However, it is feasible to develop local chains of collection, processing and promotion of such materials. 9. As a consequence of the adoption of sustainable and environmentally friendly production methods by the economy. 10. The creation of new value chains in the agri-food sector and new urban networks that favor circular economic models will also contribute to this outcome.	1. A further issue is the lack of planning and information available to farmers. The formulation of policy and regulatory frameworks that facilitate the advancement of the bioeconomy within the agricultural sector. This may entail the provision of incentives for farmers and businesses to adopt bio-based production processes, as well as the allocation of resources to support research and development activities. 2. The lack of clarity surrounding institutional and regulatory frameworks can present a significant challenge for farmers and businesses seeking to make long-term investment decisions. 3. The lack of flexibility at the local and regional levels of self-government: the failure to recognize the significance of the bioeconomy and to provide adequate support for it. 4. The transience of natural resource reserves, coupled with the phenomenon of over-consumption and the creation of new needs, has resulted in a situation where the long-term sustainability of the global economy is increasingly uncertain.

  Source: author’s own creation.

  ), which informed strategic policy recommendations.

The Delphi method is a versatile technique that has been widely adopted across a range of disciplines. The Delphi method has been employed extensively in a number of fields, including business and management, technology and innovation, politics and government, education and training, healthcare and medicine, environmental planning, market research, defence and security, and the social sciences [43]. It is important to recognize that the applicability of the Delphi method extends beyond the aforementioned areas, as it can be adapted to various others where expert consensus and informed decision-making are desirable [44]. In the present study, the Delphi method was employed in conjunction with a SWOT analysis. Each tool possesses distinctive capabilities and offers distinctive advantages. However, their combined use can facilitate enhanced situation assessment, facilitate the identification of challenges and opportunities, and facilitate strategy formulation [45]. The Delphi method may be employed for the purpose of eliciting opinions from a group of experts. The Delphi method can be employed at an early stage to elicit opinions and forecasts regarding external factors, including economic trends, purchasing behavior and technological developments. Such perspectives can prove invaluable in informing the SWOT analysis. In contrast, the SWOT analysis offers a systematic approach to assessing both internal capabilities (strengths and weaknesses) and external factors (opportunities and threats) [46]. This analysis can assist in mapping the current landscape, identifying internal resources and weaknesses, as well as external factors that may impact performance.

The Delphi-SWOT tool was deemed the most appropriate for the purpose of gathering information on the multifaceted and complex issue of the potential establishment of a bioeconomy strategy in the Region of Western Macedonia. This is due to the necessity of obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the economic, agricultural, political, environmental and social issues pertinent to the region, which can only be achieved through the input of experts who possess a substantial depth of knowledge in these areas. The survey was conducted over a period of six months and comprised two rounds of data collection facilitated by questionnaires. In order to develop the questionnaires, a comprehensive review of the relevant literature was conducted, and interviews were held with local agencies and stakeholders. In the initial phase of the study, experts were requested to select up to three statements that they deemed most pertinent. The results were subsequently organized according to the rankings assigned to facilitate the preparation for the second Delphi round. In the second round, the experts were once again asked to select up to three statements that were subsequently re-ranked, thereby revealing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (Figure 2).

4. Results

A comprehensive investigation of the current status and future prospects of the bioeconomy in the agricultural sector in the region of Western Macedonia was deemed essential to gain a deeper understanding of the sector’s internal and external environment. The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the bioeconomy were identified through the use of the Delphi method. Following the completion of two rounds of questionnaires completed by experts, the process was concluded, and a SWOT analysis and set of policy proposals were generated. These will inform the formulation of a strategy for the promotion of the bioeconomy in the region of Western Macedonia.

The selection of experts was based on the Triple Helix model (academics, public sector, industry) [47,48,49]. In the initial and subsequent rounds of the Delphi method, a total of 16 experts participated. Of these, five were academics, six were civil servants representing various governmental agencies, including the Ministry of Rural Development, Forestry Directorate, Agriculture Directorate, Hellenic Agency for Community Aid Payments and the Municipality of Kozani, and five were private sector representatives. The experts were requested to assign a rating of between one and three (with three indicating the greatest importance) to up to three statements in each of seven groups of questions. The most dominant statements formed the basis for the second round of the Delphi method. Table 1 presents the results of the initial questionnaire round in descending order.

The formulation of Delphi theses and problem definitions is explicitly reflected in the thematic structure of the first-round questionnaire. Experts evaluated and ranked specific statements within each of the seven categories mentioned earlier. These statements were formulated to capture both quantitative and qualitative aspects of regional bioeconomy readiness. The structured responses from the first round, presented in Table 1, served as the foundation for the second round of the Delphi process, where experts reassessed the top-ranked issues. The re-evaluated statements informed the construction of the SWOT matrix (Table 2), providing a transparent link between expert insights and strategic conclusions.

During the two Delphi rounds, we observed both convergence and divergence of expert views. In Round 1, a wide range of priorities was evident, but a consistent pattern emerged with certain statements consistently receiving high scores across experts. These were selected for reassessment in Round 2. In this second round, expert responses showed greater consensus, as evidenced by narrower scoring variance and greater alignment on key priorities.

However, some divergence persisted in areas such as the role of public acceptance, coordination among stakeholders, and investment readiness, suggesting ongoing debate and uncertainty in these dimensions. These divergent views were taken into account when formulating the SWOT matrix, ensuring it reflects both consensus and contested areas. This stepwise process—from broad thematic exploration to refinement and synthesis—provides a strong basis for the justification of results and their policy relevance.

Subsequently, the three statements with the highest scores per group were developed, and the second round of the Delphi method was created. The three statements with the highest scores from the second round were subsequently incorporated into the final SWOT matrix. The SWOT matrix, constructed on the basis of the responses provided by experts, is presented in Table 2. The matrix comprises four strengths, three weaknesses, ten opportunities and four threats, as identified by the experts.

The SWOT analysis for the potential formulation of a strategy for the promotion of the bioeconomy in the West Macedonia Region provides a comprehensive overview of the internal strengths, weaknesses, external opportunities and threats that characterize the prospective development of this emerging sector. These factors collectively determine the trajectory of the bioeconomy in the region and inform the strategies that can be adopted to optimize its benefits and mitigate its challenges.

The region is endowed with a number of intrinsic advantages that can be leveraged to advance the bioeconomy. Firstly, the plentiful availability of crop residues presents an opportunity to utilize these materials as valuable feedstocks for biofuel production or as animal feed, thereby reducing the amount of waste produced. Furthermore, the utilization of animal manure as a source of organic matter for biogas production exemplifies a sustainable approach to waste management, whilst simultaneously contributing to energy production. Furthermore, the cultivation of energy crops serves to reinforce the region’s capacity to establish a dependable supply of raw materials for the biofuels and bioproducts industries. Furthermore, the region’s well-established energy transmission infrastructure provides a favorable foundation for renewable energy production, encompassing solar, wind and hydropower.

The regional development of the bioeconomy is not without its challenges. A dearth of investment in pivotal infrastructure, such as biorefineries, has the potential to impede the establishment of efficacious value chains. Similarly, the absence of clearly delineated value chains based on local resources underscores the necessity for strategic planning and the optimization of resources. Furthermore, the lack of financial resources may impede the advancement of bioeconomy initiatives, underscoring the necessity for the establishment of robust financial support mechanisms.

Nevertheless, there are significant strategic opportunities for exploration in pursuit of a thriving bioeconomy. The implementation of specialized training programmes, designed to meet the specific requirements of particular sectors, such as agriculture and livestock, can facilitate the acquisition of the requisite skills and knowledge by the local workforce, thereby enhancing their capacity to engage in bioeconomic production models. Forming partnerships with local agencies and industries can facilitate access to training opportunities, including internships, apprenticeships, and hands-on experiences on farms. Financial incentives directed towards nascent entrepreneurial farmers have the potential to stimulate investment in the bioeconomy by offering tax breaks, grants and soft loans. The establishment of local and regional bioeconomy support structures serves to facilitate the dissemination of knowledge and the development of business activities. Furthermore, the potential for the establishment of collective entities, such as clusters, to facilitate the exploitation of the bioeconomy could serve to enhance co-operation and optimize the utilization of resources.

It is evident that a reference to the potential threats is a necessary component of the sustainable development of the bioeconomy. The absence of coherent policy and regulatory frameworks oriented towards the agricultural sector may impede the adoption of biobased production processes. The lack of clarity surrounding institutional and regulatory frameworks represents a significant challenge, potentially deterring long-term investment in the absence of clear guidance. The reluctance of local and regional administrators to fully comprehend the significance of the bioeconomy and provide efficacious assistance could impede progress. Furthermore, the finite nature of natural resources, compounded by overconsumption and the generation of new demands, underscores the necessity for responsible and sustainable resource management.

In conclusion, the SWOT analysis on the possibility of forming a bioeconomy strategy and promoting it in the Region of Western Macedonia reveals a promising landscape characterized by potential opportunities, yet also by significant challenges. It would be prudent for any effective strategy to capitalize on the region’s strengths by investing in key infrastructure, promoting the development of the value chain and sustainable practices. The promotion of education, innovation and investment in the bioeconomy can be facilitated through collaborative efforts between stakeholders, local industries and self-governing bodies. It is imperative that weaknesses and threats are addressed through the implementation of integrated policies, regulatory clarity and effective resource management in order to ensure the long-term success and sustainability of the bioeconomy in the region. The Region of Western Macedonia has the potential to emerge as a hub of bio-economic innovation and prosperity if it implements strategic planning, proactive initiatives and a commitment to sustainability.

To consolidate the findings of the SWOT analysis and inform strategic planning, a conceptual strategy diagram was developed to illustrate the key pillars and stakeholder roles in the development of the regional bioeconomy (Figure 3).

5. Discussion

The findings of this study support the notion that the bioeconomy holds considerable promise for regions in economic transition [29,50,51]. However, practical implementation depends on a nuanced understanding of local strengths and constraints, which was enabled through the Delphi-SWOT approach [52,53]. The results illustrate that experts view Western Macedonia as a region with bioeconomic potential, particularly in leveraging agricultural and forestry residues, yet constrained by weak infrastructure and unclear institutional support.

Subsequently, the findings of this study corroborate those of [54], who posit that education is a pivotal factor in the adoption of the bioeconomy. It can be reasonably assumed that farmers with higher levels of education will have a stronger foundation in science and technology, which will facilitate an understanding of bioeconomy principles [55]. Furthermore, they are better equipped to navigate complex information and evaluate the potential benefits of bioeconomy practices. Educational programmes at all levels can facilitate the transfer of knowledge and empower farmers to make informed decisions [56].

Conversely, farmers who possess a robust comprehension of the bioeconomy concept are more inclined to espouse its tenets [57,58]. These insights encompass environmental benefits, including a reduction in waste and an efficient use of resources, as well as economic opportunities, such as the creation of new markets and value-added products. Additionally, there are potential social impacts, including rural development and job creation [59,60]. It is of the utmost importance to disseminate clear and accessible information through workshops, training programmes and webinars in order to raise awareness and build knowledge. However, as Paltaki and Michailidis [61] have observed, the willingness of farmers to undergo bioeconomy training represents a crucial factor. Training programmes that concentrate on the acquisition of practical skills, such as biological resource management, waste minimization and bio-based product development, can equip farmers with the requisite tools for the successful implementation of the aforementioned skills. The provision of information addressing concerns, the presentation of clear benefits and the offering of incentives to participate in training can encourage farmers to invest in their bioeconomy knowledge [62].

In addition to the aforementioned variables, a number of other factors have been identified as influencing the adoption of the bioeconomy in agricultural holdings. The size and type of agricultural holding are also pertinent considerations. It is posited that larger agricultural holdings may have greater resources available for investment in bioeconomy practices [63]. It may be posited that specialized farms, for example those engaged in bioenergy production, may be more conducive to the integration of the bioeconomy. Another factor is economic sustainability, as farmers will tend to prioritize practices that offer clear economic benefits, such as reducing costs or increasing income through the introduction of new products [7]. Subsequently, government policies provide incentives for the adoption of bioeconomy practices, which can significantly encourage their uptake [32]. Ultimately, the exchange of experiences and best practices among farmers can facilitate the formation of a support network, thereby accelerating the adoption of the bioeconomy [64].

Incentives, such as subsidies, tax breaks and funding for research and development (R&D) in bio-based technologies, can encourage farmers to invest in the agricultural bioeconomy sector [65]. It is of the utmost importance that regulations are transparent and stable, ensuring the sustainability of the utilization of organic resources and addressing concerns such as land-use change. This is vital for investor confidence. Furthermore, the economic competitiveness of organic products in comparison to traditional alternatives is a significant driver [66,67,68]. The adoption of bioeconomy principles by businesses is contingent upon the existence of a discernible economic advantage [69].

The availability of affordable financing and the existence of infrastructure for the processing of biological resources have been identified as significant factors influencing the rate of adoption. Concurrently, advancements in biotechnology, bioinformatics and other disciplines are pivotal for the creation of efficacious and cost-effective products and processes derived from biological sources [70]. The continuous innovation of new techniques enables the creation of high-value products from biomass, thereby rendering the bioeconomy a more attractive proposition [71].

It is imperative that the general public is aware of and has a positive perception of organic products if the market is to accept them [11,72]. Those consumers who are pursuing sustainability are more likely to choose products of organic origin, thereby boosting demand and influencing businesses [73,74].

Conversely, the facilitation of knowledge exchange between researchers, businesses and policy makers is vital for the development and implementation of effective bioeconomy strategies [75]. Concurrently, the development of a skilled workforce through education and training programmes is fundamental to the advancement of the bioeconomy.

The aforementioned conclusions corroborate the fundamental assumptions and crucial research findings that the adoption factors of the bioeconomy are interrelated and necessitate a multifaceted approach for the successful transition to a bioeconomic production model [76].

The findings of the research study corroborate the conclusions of previous investigations that have identified a significant challenge facing the global agricultural sector: the need to meet the growing demand for food, fibre and fuel, while simultaneously reducing its environmental impact [18,68]. The bioeconomy is presented as a promising solution to the aforementioned challenges. Nevertheless, the transition to a bioeconomy in agriculture is not an inevitable consequence. Environmental concerns represent a pivotal motivating factor in the development of the bioeconomy in agriculture. In light of the pressing issues of climate change and resource depletion, there is a clear imperative for a transition towards sustainable practices [77]. The bioeconomy offers solutions such as biofuels and bio-derived materials, which have the potential to reduce dependence on fossil fuels [52]. Furthermore, the core principles of the bioeconomy include the minimization of waste and the promotion of efficient resource utilization, which can be achieved through practices such as composting.

The implementation of government policies that provide incentives for research, development and adoption of biotechnologies and bio-based products can serve as a significant driving force [78,79]. Conversely, the absence of supportive policies can impede progress [80]. Furthermore, market forces are of significant consequence. The growing consumer demand for sustainable products presents opportunities for farmers who adopt bioeconomy practices. By meeting this demand, farmers may be able to enhance their market position and profitability [81].

Technological advances also exert a considerable influence on the bioeconomy in agriculture [82]. The fields of precision agriculture and genetic engineering offer innovative tools and techniques. Furthermore, the establishment of infrastructure for biomass logistics, storage and processing is crucial for the effective functioning of a bioeconomy in the agricultural sector.

Finally, the social dimension constitutes an integral component of the adoption of the bioeconomy in agriculture [83]. It is of the utmost importance that the general public is receptive to biotechnologies and bio-based products if they are to be adopted on a widespread basis. It is imperative that open communication and education be employed in order to address public concerns about these technologies. Nevertheless, the potential impact of the bioeconomy on rural communities, including in terms of job creation and income generation, requires careful consideration. The equitable adoption of the bioeconomy necessitates the distribution of its benefits to these communities, the promotion of social acceptance and the assurance of long-term sustainability [84].

In conclusion, the adoption of the bioeconomy in agriculture is driven by a complex interplay of environmental, political-economic, production and social factors. It is imperative that policymakers, researchers, agriculturalists and stakeholders recognize and address these factors in order to facilitate a successful transition to a more sustainable and resilient agricultural system.

While several findings align with the broader bioeconomy transition literature, this study also revealed region-specific insights. For example, the persistent fragmentation in governance and the lack of intersectoral coordination emerged as particularly acute in Western Macedonia, where the transition from lignite dependency adds complexity. These findings contribute to theoretical discussions on the territorial dimension of bioeconomy planning, highlighting how historical legacies, institutional structures, and local readiness shape the feasibility of strategic frameworks in structurally transitioning regions.

Furthermore, the strategic approach to developing a regional bioeconomy in Western Macedonia demonstrates significant alignment with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), reinforcing its broader relevance beyond local needs. The promotion of sustainable agricultural practices through valorization of biological resources strengthens food security (SDG 2) [85], while the exploitation of biomass and bioenergy resources contributes to affordable and clean energy solutions (SDG 7) [86]. Simultaneously, the encouragement of entrepreneurship, job creation and capacity building among rural communities fosters decent work and economic growth (SDG 8) [87,88]. The integration of circular economy principles supports responsible consumption and production patterns (SDG 12) [89,90], and the emphasis on renewable energy and sustainable land use practices advances climate action (SDG 13). This convergence of regional development initiatives with global sustainability imperatives highlights the transformative potential of a well-orchestrated bioeconomy transition.

An essential element in ensuring that the bioeconomy delivers tangible benefits to all stakeholders is the establishment of mechanisms for the continuous monitoring of socioeconomic performance [91]. It is crucial to track indicators such as employment rates in bioeconomy sectors, rural income diversification, business formation rates, education and training uptake, and demographic trends such as rural retention or migration [92]. Such monitoring frameworks enable stakeholders to assess the real impacts of bioeconomy interventions, ensuring that the transition supports sustainable community development [93,94,95]. In this context, fostering resilient and sustainable rural communities becomes paramount. The pragmatic view of sustainability embraced in this study acknowledges that economic viability, social cohesion, and environmental stewardship must progress together [96]. Building vibrant local economies through bioeconomic activities not only addresses environmental goals but also mitigates rural decline, reinforces social fabric, and enhances the overall quality of life in regions undergoing economic transformation [96,97]. These aspects underline the need for integrated regional strategies that balance innovation-driven growth with inclusive and measurable socioeconomic outcomes. Beyond the regional focus and reliance on expert opinion, the study is subject to several additional limitations. The time-bound nature of the Delphi process is reflective of perceptions during a specific phase of the regional transition, which may evolve. Furthermore, the potential for response bias may be introduced by self-selection or varying degrees of familiarity with the bioeconomy concept. Additionally, while the Delphi SWOT approach provides structured expert insight, the lack of quantitative triangulation may limit the statistical generalizability of the results. These limitations underscore the necessity for complementary approaches in future research. A significant limitation of the research is that it is confined to the Region of Western Macedonia. Consequently, the findings may not be applicable to other regions of Greece that exhibit disparate economic and social characteristics. Finally, the Delphi method is based on the opinions of experts, which are inherently subjective. Despite the scoring process being designed to minimize subjectivity, it is possible that this may still represent a source of error.

6. Conclusions

In order to develop a bioeconomy strategy for the region of Western Macedonia that is aligned with the principles of strategic planning, a series of steps must be undertaken and a number of specific factors must be taken into account. Firstly, a comprehensive examination of the existing bioeconomy in the region is essential. This entails an evaluation of the region’s resources, industrial sectors, and business activities. Subsequently, the future development of the bioeconomy in the region should be guided by clearly defined goals and priorities. It is essential that the objectives set are realistic, quantifiable and attainable with the resources and capabilities available locally. Subsequently, a system of action must be developed, comprising specific initiatives, policies and programmes that will facilitate the attainment of defined objectives. It is essential that the system be flexible and adaptable, capable of responding to changes and evolving needs within the environment. Ultimately, it is essential to implement a monitoring and evaluation system that enables the continuous assessment of progress towards the attainment of objectives and the adaptation of actions in accordance with this assessment.

Overall, this process requires co-operation between public authorities, the business sector, local community representatives and other stakeholders to ensure the successful implementation of the bioeconomy strategy in the region. Based on the SWOT analysis, a comprehensive strategy should have six pillars to maximize the potential for sustainable development. The following pillars describe key actions that can be taken to build on strengths, address weaknesses, seize opportunities and mitigate threats in the pursuit of a thriving bioeconomy.

• Invest in infrastructure: Recognizing the lack of investment in basic infrastructure, the region should prioritize the establishment of biorefineries and related facilities. An integrated investment plan should be developed to facilitate the integration of value chains, from the sourcing of raw materials to the distribution of finished products. Public-private co-operation, combined with financial incentives, can stimulate the creation of a strong infrastructure network to support the development of the bioeconomy. To encourage investment, financial incentives should be offered to young entrepreneurial farmers. These incentives can include tax breaks, grants and soft loans. By reducing economic barriers, the region can attract a new generation of forward-thinking farmers willing to contribute to sustainable bioeconomic development.
• Value chain development: To address the lack of clearly defined value chains, the region should undertake a systematic assessment of available local resources. This assessment will serve as a basis for identifying and promoting potential value chains, such as the use of agricultural waste for the production of biofuels and forest residues for bio-based chemicals. The development of value chains should be driven by sustainable practices, innovation and efficient use of resources. Taking advantage of the significant amounts of energy resources available, the region should prioritize the development of combined heat and power systems. Strategic partnerships with energy producers and distributors can facilitate the integration of renewable energy into the existing energy transmission infrastructure, reducing the region’s carbon footprint and increasing energy security.
• Workforce training and capacity building: In line with the opportunities offered by specialized training programmes, the region should work with educational institutions, industry experts and local stakeholders to design and implement targeted training initiatives. These programmes should address the specific needs of different sectors, including agriculture, livestock and mixed farming. By strengthening the skills and knowledge of the local workforce, the region can ensure the successful adoption of bio-economic production models.
• Co-operation between industry and local authorities: By working closely with local institutions and industry, the region can create training opportunities such as internships, apprenticeships and on-farm placements. These experiences will provide participants with first-hand exposure to bio-economic practices, fostering a culture of innovation and knowledge sharing. By bridging the gap between theoretical knowledge and practical application, this collaboration can promote skills development and enhance synergies between industry and local actors. Recognizing the potential of bioeconomy entrepreneurship, local and regional bioeconomy support structures should be established. These structures can provide business development support, technical training and mentoring to young farmer-entrepreneurs. By providing an enabling environment and fostering a supportive ecosystem, the region can empower individuals to succeed in the bioeconomy.
• Implement circular economy and sustainable production practices: To realize the potential of the circular economy, the region should take proactive measures to recover reusable materials from municipal waste. Local chains should be established to collect, process and trade these materials, promoting resource efficiency and minimizing waste. By adopting circular economy principles, the region can contribute to environmental sustainability and resource conservation. On the other hand, the adoption of sustainable and environmentally friendly production methods in all sectors should be actively promoted. By incentivizing and supporting the implementation of environmentally friendly practices, the region can contribute to both economic development and environmental protection, promoting a harmonious relationship between nature and industry.
• Communication: The aim is to create an effective communication mechanism that will increase the awareness, understanding and participation of all stakeholders in the development of the bioeconomy in the region. Firstly, an information and communication framework should be established, including the development of strong messages and the use of appropriate communication media, such as websites, social networks, press releases, events and training programmes. This framework should be accessible to all stakeholders, from the general public to professionals, politicians and academics. Another important factor is the creation of collaborative platforms and networks that allow stakeholders to exchange ideas, knowledge and experiences on the bioeconomy. The communication pillar should also focus on creating opportunities for dialogue and debate between the various stakeholders, with the aim of developing common approaches and solutions for the sustainable development of the bioeconomy. Finally, continuous evaluation and monitoring of communication activities is essential to ensure effectiveness and adaptation to changing needs and circumstances.

In conclusion, the development of a strategy for the bioeconomy in the region of Western Macedonia requires a multifaceted approach. The pillars described above provide a roadmap for harnessing the region’s bioeconomic potential, promoting sustainable practices and creating a thriving and resilient bioeconomy that contributes to local prosperity and global environmental goals. Through collaborative efforts, strategic planning and commitment to sustainable development, the Western Macedonia region can position itself as a model of balanced and inclusive development.

To improve the applicability of the proposed actions, key policy recommendations may be grouped by stakeholder category:

• Local governments: strengthen coordination mechanisms, foster participatory planning, and integrate bioeconomy into local development agendas.
• Farmers and co-operatives: facilitate access to training, support adoption of bio-based technologies, and promote aggregation for biomass valorization.
• Regional development agencies: create financial incentives, attract investment in bioeconomic infrastructure, and coordinate innovation networks.
• Educational and research institutions: develop curricula focused on bioeconomy skills, and support applied research in sustainable technologies adapted to regional resources.

Future research could build on this study by conducting comparative analyses with other coal-transition or post-industrial regions in Europe, such as Silesia (Poland), Lusatia (Germany) or Jiu Valley (Romania), to identify contextual divergences and shared governance challenges in bioeconomy implementation. Moreover, combining Delphi results with quantitative modelling approaches (e.g., multi-criteria decision analysis, system dynamics or scenario simulation) could enhance policy relevance and strategic foresight. Longitudinal research exploring the institutional uptake and adaptive evolution of regional bioeconomy strategies over time would also be valuable for assessing their durability and impact. These directions provide a sound basis for further development of territorial bioeconomy frameworks and methodological innovation in future studies.