Current Challenges to Achieving Mass-Market Hydrogen Mobility from the Perspective of Early Adopters in South Korea

Abstract

Hydrogen mobility is expected to be a crucial element in decarbonizing fossil fuel-based transportation. In South Korea, hydrogen mobility has successfully formed an early market led by fuel cell passenger cars under strong support policies. Nevertheless, the fuel cell vehicle (FCV) market is still in its infancy, and current challenges must be overcome to achieve mass-market adoption. This study aims to identify the current challenges in the diffusion of FCVs in Korea. We identified the key challenges facing FCVs from a consumer perspective with data from the latest FCV customer survey. The data were applied to estimate ordered logit models of fuel cell car satisfaction and purchase intention. Significant challenges in Korea were identified from the perspective of vehicles, infrastructure, and renewable energy. Vehicle-related challenges include concerns about vehicle durability, such as recalls and repairs, and maintenance and repair costs. Infrastructure-related challenges include the fueling accessibility and fueling failures due to hydrogen refueling station facility failures, or hydrogen supply problems. Challenges related to renewable energy include the low proportion of hydrogen from renewable sources. To achieve the large-scale diffusion of FCVs, it is important to maintain support policies and attract new FCV demand, such as long-distance heavy-duty vehicles.

1. Introduction

The transport sector accounted for 23% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2019 and 70% of total emissions from road vehicles [1]. With the number of automobiles steadily increasing in South Korea, reaching 417 passenger cars per 1000 people by 2023 [2], zero-emission vehicles are becoming critical in transitioning to more sustainable transport [3]. According to Ref. [4], zero-emission vehicles are defined as “vehicles that produce zero tailpipe exhaust emissions of any criteria pollutant of greenhouse gas under all possible operational modes or conditions”. Currently, commercially available zero-emission vehicles include battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). BEVs are powered by electricity stored in batteries, which are charged via the grid or renewable energy sources, while FCVs rely on electricity generated by fuel cells (FCs) using hydrogen. Both BEVs and FCVs produce almost no pollutants or greenhouse gas emissions from their tailpipes. Furthermore, the greater the proportion of electricity and hydrogen derived from renewable energy sources, the more significant the reduction in their life cycle emissions. Therefore, as the share of renewable energy in the energy sector increases, converting fossil fuel-based vehicles to electric vehicles has been proposed as an effective way to decarbonize road transport [5].

Hydrogen can be produced without greenhouse gas emissions by utilizing renewable energy sources such as methane pyrolysis and water electrolysis [6]. Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power must be combined with electrical energy storage technology to be effectively utilized due to their intermittent nature. The electrolysis of water for hydrogen production enables the surplus electricity produced from renewable energy sources to be converted into hydrogen for storage, and this hydrogen can be converted back into electrical energy through FCs [7].

The Korean government prioritized the transition to zero-emission vehicles as a transportation strategy in the ‘National basic plan for carbon neutrality and green growth’, declared in 2023, and set a target of 4.2 million BEVs and 300,000 hydrogen FCVs by 2030 [8]. This shows that the Korean government has high expectations for the potential of hydrogen and FC technologies, as well as battery technology for zero-emission mobility.

Hydrogen mobility can be effectively applied to vehicles that require high-energy storage, such as taxis, car sharing and delivery, and long-distance road travel, which are hard-to-abate sectors with battery technology [9,10]. Currently, most commercial models of hydrogen mobility are electric vehicles powered by FCs [9]. There are no tailpipe emissions during operation, and upstream emissions can be minimized by utilizing hydrogen produced from renewable energy. However, despite these advantages, FCVs remain in operation on a small scale, with global cumulative sales reaching only 83,000 units in 2023 [11]. Current FCVs are concentrated in a few countries, including South Korea, China, and the United States, with South Korea having the largest number of FCVs on the road.

The Korean government has been actively promoting the diffusion of FCVs as a national strategy to activate the hydrogen economy since 2019 and has reflected the mid-to-long-term FCV target scale in the hydrogen strategy roadmap [12]. With strong support policies and the launch of the first FC passenger car model, Nexo, in 2018, the FCV market has successfully taken root. However, the growth rate of the Korean FCV market has decreased since 2023, with the number of new registrations decreasing from 10,256 in 2022 to 4673 in 2023 [2]. To achieve the Korean government’s target of distributing 300,000 FCVs by 2030, technological and policy improvements are required to create a continuous demand for FCVs.

This study aims to identify the current challenges in the diffusion of FCVs in Korea, in which the initial market has been rapidly formed but growth is slowing, and to suggest the technological and policy improvements necessary for the transition to sustainable hydrogen mobility. We reviewed previous studies on FCVs and the current status of FCVs in Korea, and analyzed the challenges from the perspective of customers. The unique feature of this study is that it identifies market issues through an empirical analysis targeting Korean FCV consumers, who have not yet been analyzed. We identified consumer challenges based on data from a survey of 100 FC passenger car owners as early adopters and 1000 Korean drivers as potential customers. These results can be used as a reference for establishing technology and policy directions for other countries that wish to expand hydrogen mobility in the future.

This paper is structured as follows: Section 2 reviews previous studies and the current situation in Korea. Section 3 presents the data and methods used in this study. Section 4 discusses the implications derived from the model analysis. Section 5 summarizes the most important challenges and proposes a perspective on hydrogen mobility.

2. Literature Review

2.1. Previous Studies on FCVs

Electric vehicles are increasingly being adopted in the transportation sector as an environmentally friendly solution, with various energy storage systems and charging methods being developed [13]. Since the early stage of the mass development of electric vehicles in the 1990s, the automotive industry has anticipated that BEVs and FCVs will occupy different segments of the market due to the differences in the energy densities of the applied energy carriers [14].

Hydrogen mobility is expected to be a crucial element in decarbonizing fossil fuel-based transportation, and its potential for energy savings and emission reductions has been discussed in various studies [9,10,15,16,17,18,19,20,21]. Currently, hydrogen mobility is mainly utilized in the form of electric vehicles with FC systems [9]. FC technology has the great potential to compete with BEVs in the transportation sector [22]. Compared with BEVs, FCVs have a higher energy storage efficiency, which makes them more advantageous in terms of long-distance driving, fast refueling, scalability, and flexibility, and are suitable for application in vehicles with a high capacity [10,17].

However, the FCV market size is still small and in the niche market stage. The cumulative global sales of hydrogen vehicles in 2023 were 83,000 vehicles, most of which are in operation in some countries such as Korea, China, the United States, Europe, and Japan [11]. Several studies have suggested economic feasibility, energy efficiency, infrastructure issues, and technological maturity as obstacles to the large-scale adoption of FCVs.

The economic challenges include the high manufacturing costs and purchase costs of FCVs, and the high costs of refueling stations, while the energy efficiency challenges include the relatively low energy density of hydrogen per volume compared to most fossil fuels [10,15,17,23,24]. However, compared to battery technology, hydrogen storage technology is evaluated to have better volumetric and weight densities [14,25].

The infrastructure challenges include a lack of hydrogen infrastructure, which means not only insufficient hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) but also a lack of hydrogen production and distribution infrastructure [7,10,17,18,25]. The scale of HRSs affects the initial FCV proliferation [26], and the issue of fueling convenience is analyzed as a factor delaying the spread of FCVs [25,27]. In a case study of China, Ref. [28] suggested that government financial support for the early construction of HRSs could improve the efficiency of FCV market expansion.

Hydrogen infrastructure also affects the environmental friendliness of FCVs. When considering the life cycle emissions of FCVs, the higher the share of hydrogen in the fossil-based production pathway, the lower the greenhouse gas emission reduction effect [19,21]. It has even been pointed out that FCVs may be less ecologically efficient than gasoline vehicles in countries with a high share of fossil fuels or low power generation efficiency [18]. Therefore, the hydrogen pathway used in the transportation sector is an important factor affecting the total cost of ownership and the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from FCVs [20,21].

Technology maturity is another challenge faced by FCVs and hydrogen infrastructure. Refs. [9,16] emphasized the need for the technological maturity of the hydrogen fuel supply system, and Ref. [17] presented FC durability issues as a significant barrier. In addressing the durability challenges of FCs, more advanced Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) technologies are being developed to prevent failures and extend the lifespan of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs), which are commonly used in hydrogen vehicles [29]. Refs. [23,30,31] analyzed the Chinese FCV industry chain and found the technology readiness level and the production scale to be factors affecting the future diffusion of FCVs. In addition, safety challenges [16,23] and an insufficient number of manufacturers [20,32] were also considered barriers.

Many studies have already been conducted in major countries, such as China, the United States, and Japan, to expand their FCVs. Refs. [23,27,30,31,32,33] analyzed major market factors, such as the FCV industry’s value chain, economic analysis of FCVs, and government policy in China, and suggested FCV policies and expansion plans. Research on FCVs in the United States has mainly focused on the California market, and studies have been conducted on governance strategies for market formation [34], the FCV forecast [28], and potential demand [35,36]. Studies in Japan include FCV consumer preferences and policy incentive analysis [26,37]. In addition, studies on FCV diffusion have been conducted in Germany [33], India [38], Italy [24], Spain [39], and Denmark [40]. In cross-national comparative studies, Ref. [22] analyzed and compared FCV policies in the United States, Japan, and the European Union; Ref. [41] compared and analyzed the barriers to FCV diffusion in the Germany, Japan, and California; and Ref. [42] compared and analyzed policies in northwestern European countries.

South Korea’s initial FCV market started relatively later than other countries, such as the United States, Japan, and Germany. Therefore, there are not many empirical studies on FCVs in Korea, which have mainly focused on the pre-market introduction stage, such as infrastructure development [43,44], the hydrogen industry [45], and hydrogen vehicle policy [43]. Although various studies on FCV consumers have been conducted, including Refs. [35,36,46,47], research on Korean consumers remains limited. In Korea, there are many studies on BEVs as eco-friendly car customers [5,48,49,50,51] but only a few related to the FCV demand. Ref. [52] analyzed the potential demand for FCVs among Korean electric vehicle customers and suggested that reducing FCV purchase costs could boost sales for early adopters.

2.2. Current Status of FCVs in South Korea

Here, we describe the current status of the FCV market in Korea from the following three aspects: vehicles, infrastructure, and government policy. To analyze the current situation, we reviewed relevant recent literature, including policy data and industry trends.

2.2.1. Vehicles

As of 2023, the number of registered automobiles in Korea was 26 million, of which 34,258 were FCVs. Passenger cars accounted for 98% of FCVs, most of which were sold to individuals and operated for personal use. Other FCV models, such as 651 buses and 16 medium-sized trucks, were also in operation and mainly used for commercial purposes, such as city buses and delivery vehicles [53]. In Korea, only Hyundai’s FCV models are sold, and, until 2015, the passenger car model Tucson ix was sold in limited quantities. However, since the launch of Nexo in 2018, only Nexo has been sold. Other models include two buses launched by Hyundai, namely, Elec City and Universe, and the Xcient truck.

As shown in

Table 1. Number of newly registered FCVs in Korea from 2019 to 2023 [47].

	By 2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Total	5102	5843	8532	10,256	4673
FC car	5085	5783	8473	10,104	4294
FC bus	17	60	54	152	367
FC truck	none	None	5	none	11

, the number of new registrations from 2019 to 2023 increased from 2019 to 2022 but decreased to less than 50% of 2022 in 2023.

As previously mentioned, Korea is an FCV hub with a domestic manufacturer, which is advantageous for early market formation. Looking at the FC car production volume, domestic sales, and export sales from 2019 to 2023 (

Table 2. Production volume and domestic and export sales of FC cars in Korea from 2019 to 2023 [48].

	By 2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Production volume	6020	6459	9438	10,606	5594
Domestic sales	4194	5786	8502	10,164	4328
Export sales	788	995	1119	361	224

), the production volume is mostly sold domestically, and it gradually increases until 2022, but shows a downward trend in 2023.

2.2.2. Infrastructure

The Korean government announced its policy direction for the ‘Hydrogen Infrastructure and Charging Station Construction Plan’ in 2019, which included a strategic goal of deploying 310 hydrogen refueling points nationwide by 2022 [49]. The construction of new HRSs was carried out under the leadership of the government, and 205 HRSs and 300 refueling points were secured by 2023. We estimated the ratio of FCVs to refueling points to evaluate infrastructure availability.

Table 3. Hydrogen refueling points and the ratio of FCVs to refueling points [47].

	By 2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Total refueling points	36	70	170	229	300
Total FCVs	5102	10,945	19,477	29,733	34,406
Ratio of FCVs to refueling points	142	156	115	130	115

summarizes the refueling points and FCVs from 2019 to 2023. The ratio of FCVs to refueling points decreased from 156 in 2020 to 115 in 2023.

To assess the impact of HRSs on FC car sales, we generated a scatter plot illustrating the relationship between hydrogen refueling points and FC car registrations across 17 administrative districts. As depicted in Figure 1, there is a positive correlation between the number of refueling points and the number of FC car registrations [54,55].

In the initial stage, HRSs were mainly designed for passenger cars, but, with the increase in FC buses after 2022, HRSs with a higher capacity were also introduced. Currently, HRSs with a maximum charging capacity of 25 kg per hour or less account for about 49% of all charging stations, HRSs with a capacity of 25–100 kg account for 40%, and HRSs with a capacity of more than 100 kg per hour account for 11%. Operating hours vary depending on the location, but most stations are generally open for about 12 h, from 08:00 to 20:00.

The hydrogen pathway in South Korea mainly consists of byproduct hydrogen from oil refining and chemical manufacturing, and hydrogen from gas reforming. Most HRSs rely on off-site production with hydrogen transported by high-pressure tube trailers. In Korea, fossil fuel-derived hydrogen production is effectively used to form the initial market, and technologies to produce large-capacity hydrogen in cooperation with natural gas are also being developed to prepare for the expansion of demand [45]. Currently, a demonstration project to utilize hydrogen from renewable sources in the transportation sector has been promoted in Jeju [56], but hydrogen from renewable sources in Korea remains in the demonstration stage.

2.2.3. Government Policy

The Korean government strengthened the financial incentives for FCV and HRS development by announcing the ‘Hydrogen Economy Roadmap’ and the ‘Hydrogen Infrastructure and Charging Station Construction Plan’ in 2019 [12,57]. The successful formation of the initial FCV market and the expansion of HRSs largely depended on support from the public sector. Unlike the United States or Europe [22], Korea’s government support is implemented in the form of direct subsidies in the FCV vehicle purchase stage and the infrastructure construction stage, which have the effect of reducing upfront costs.

The FCV incentive system includes support measures that can reduce purchasing costs, such as FCV subsidies and tax reductions, and operating cost support measures, such as parking fees and toll reductions. Subsidies are provided by the national government and local governments, and the scale of support is set to ensure cost competitiveness with conventional vehicles in terms of upfront costs [58]. We conducted an economic analysis of FCVs under the current incentive system in South Korea. We mainly analyzed the purchase cost and fuel cost among the total cost of ownership and excluded the maintenance cost, which is currently difficult to estimate. As shown in

Table 4. Comparison of purchase costs and fuel costs between FC cars and gasoline cars in Korea.

		FC Car (Nexo)	Gasoline Car (G70)
Purchase cost	Sticker price	KRW 69,500,000	KRW 53,800,000
	Sales tax	KRW 3,022,727	KRW 3,604,640
	Subsidy	KRW 32,500,000
	Final purchase cost	KRW 40,022,727	KRW 57,444,640
Fuel cost	Fuel cost per unit	KRW 9900 per kilogram	1548 won per liter
	Average fuel economy	96.2 km per kilogram	10.7 km per liter
	Fuel cost per year	KRW 1,154,644	KRW 1,540,931

Note: Purchase cost and fuel cost are applied as of August 2024. The FC car subsidy is the sum of national government and local government subsidies. Fuel efficiency is applied based on the certified fuel efficiency during the test process.

, the purchase costs and fuel costs of FC cars are lower than those of gasoline cars. This result shows that the Korean FC car incentive system is designed to lower the economic barrier from the customers’ perspective.

As a support system for HRSs, the national government provides subsidies for construction costs and supports operating cost deficits for small-scale private charging stations. The national government supports 50–70% of the construction costs for HRSs built by local governments or private providers. The level of subsidy varies depending on the entity undertaking the construction and the type of refueling station. The fuel cost subsidy, set to begin in 2024, is limited to private refueling stations and covers up to 80% of the total fuel cost deficit. This subsidy aims to support the economic feasibility of refueling station operations and continuously expand the HRS network [59].

2.3. Scope of the Study

We reviewed previous studies and the current status of FCVs in South Korea and derived the following insights. The diffusion of FCVs is important for the decarbonization of the transportation sector, but FCVs are still in the phase of a niche market. Korea successfully formed an early market in a relatively short period, which was possible due to efforts to secure the economics of FCVs through attractive incentives and continuous HRS development. However, to grow into a large mass-market, continuous demand must be created, and efforts should be made to identify the challenges of the current FCV market.

However, research on the demand for FCVs in Korea is still rare, and there are few empirical studies related to customers. Some studies, such as Ref. [36], have targeted FC car drivers, but few studies have targeted the early adopters who actually own and drive FC cars. Therefore, this study analyzed the current challenges from the perspective of customers by utilizing empirical data collected from early adopters and potential customers of FC cars in Korea. This study is unique in that it is empirical research on Korean consumers, and the data used in this study were acquired in a timely way timely in 2023, and will thus be useful in discussing the challenges and prospects of the Korean FCV market.

3. Data and Methods

3.1. Data

This study utilized survey data targeting FC passenger car customers for empirical analysis. The data are the results of two surveys intended for people who purchase and drive FC cars and general drivers as potential customers. The former targeted drivers who owned and used FC cars for personal use, and 100 respondents participated in the survey [60]. The latter targeted general drivers who did not own FC cars, and 1000 drivers nationwide participated in the survey.

The FC car driver survey was conducted online in October 2023, and the respondents were recruited through a panel of professional research institutes and online clubs. To ensure the validity of the survey results, the survey was limited to those who had driven FC cars for at least 6 months; they all owned Hyundai’s Nexo model. The questionnaire consisted of items regarding their overall FC car experiences, such as vehicle use and charging behavior, as well as vehicle awareness, satisfaction, and personal characteristics.

Table 5. Independent variables for FC car satisfaction and repurchase intention models.

Variables	Description	Units
Gender	Gender	1 = male, 2 = female
Age	Age	Age
Driving experience	Total number of years of driving experience	Year
Number of family members	Number of household members	People
Occupation	Respondent’s occupation	1 = office worker, 0 = others
Monthly income	Average monthly income of the respondent’s household	KRW 10,000 Korean
Number of cars	Total number of cars owned by the respondent’s household	Cars
Region	Region where the respondent lives	1 = metropolitan area, 0 = others
Technology interest	Level of interest in cutting-edge technologies assessed on a 5-point Likert scale	1 = extremely uninterested, 2 = somewhat uninterested, 3 = neutral, 4 = somewhat interested, 5 = extremely interested
Eco-friendliness	Level of interest in environmental protection activities assessed on a 5-point Likert scale	Same as above
Period of ownership	Total number of months the respondent drove an FC car	Months
Repairs and recalls	Total frequency of recalls or repairs during the ownership of an FC car	Counts
Driving days	Average number of days FC car used per month	Days
HRS in use	Total number of refueling stations used in the past month	Stations
Fueling frequency	Total number of refueling sessions in the past month	Times
Fueling failure	Experience fueling failure due to unexpected stoppage and breakdowns of refueling facilities	1 = never, 2 = almost none, 3 = sometimes, 4 = very often
Importance of purchase price	Level of agreement that the price of an FC car is an important barrier to its diffusion	1 = extremely disagree, 2 = somewhat disagree, 3 = neutral, 4 = somewhat agree, 5 = extremely agree
Importance of maintenance and repair (M&R) cost	Level of agreement that the M&R cost of an FC car is an important barrier to its diffusion	Same as above
Importance of fuel cost	Level of agreement that the hydrogen cost is an important barrier to FC car diffusion	Same as above
Importance of durability	Level of agreement that the durability of FCs and their critical components are an important barrier to FC car diffusion	Same as above
Importance of an HRS network	Level of agreement that the number of accessible HRSs is an important barrier to FC car diffusion	Same as above
Importance of refueling time	Level of agreement that the refueling time of HRSs is an important barrier to FC car diffusion	Same as above
Satisfaction with performance	Level of satisfaction with the vehicle performance of FC cars	1 = extremely dissatisfied, 2 = somewhat dissatisfied, 3 = neutral, 4 = somewhat satisfied, 5 = extremely satisfied
Satisfaction with range	Level of satisfaction with the driving range of FC cars	Same as above
Satisfaction with design	Level of satisfaction with the FC car design	Same as above
Satisfaction with fueling	Level of satisfaction with the convenience of hydrogen refueling	Same as above
Satisfaction with fuel cost	Level of satisfaction with the hydrogen cost	Same as above

summarizes the main variables taken from the survey results and used in this study.

The Korean driver survey was conducted in 2017, 2019, and 2023 [60,61,62]. Although this survey was not conducted annually, it was used because it was deemed appropriate for comparing changes over time. All three surveys were designed to analyze the year-on-year changes by applying the same sampling strategies and survey methods. The survey set Korean driver’s license holders as the population and extracted the sample by applying population characteristics and regional population composition quotas. The respondents were recruited through a professional research panel, and the survey was conducted online. All three surveys included fuel type preferences for the next purchase vehicle, but the 2023 survey also added questions on electric and hydrogen mobility awareness and perception. In this study, the results were used to analyze potential customers of FC cars.

Table 6. Independent variables for the purchase intention of an FC car.

Variables	Description	Units
Gender	Gender	1 = male, 2 = female
Age	Age	age
Occupation	Respondent’s occupation	1 = office worker, 0 = others
Monthly income	Average monthly income of the respondent’s household	KRW 10,000 Korean
Number of cars	Total number of cars owned by the respondent’s household	cars
Region	Region where the respondent lives	1 = metropolitan area, 0 = others
Technology interest	Level of interest in cutting-edge technologies assessed on a 5-point Likert scale	1 = extremely uninterested, 2 = somewhat uninterested, 3 = neutral, 4 = somewhat interested, 5 = extremely interested
Eco-friendliness	Level of interest in environmental protection activities assessed on a 5-point Likert scale	Same as above
Average mileage	Average annual mileage of the respondent	kilometer
Average fuel cost	The average monthly fuel cost of the respondent	10,000 Korean won
Vehicle choice	The most important attribute to consider when buying a car	1 = economic factor, 0 = others
Next purchase	How many years from now does the respondent expect to buy a new car?	Year
Factor 1	Level of awareness of the major attributes of FC cars	1–5
FC car experience	Level of experience with FC cars	1 = never drove an FC car, 2 = never drove an FC car but saw one, 3 = drove an FC car before, 4 = owned an FC car before
HRS accessibility	Whether an HRS is located near the respondent’s home	1 = more than one HRS, 0 = none
Motivation for buying an FC car	Main motivation if the respondent is buying an FC car	1 = economic motivation, 0 = others
Importance of purchase price	Level of agreement that the price of an FC car is an important barrier to its diffusion	1 = extremely disagree, 2 = somewhat disagree, 3 = neutral, 4 = somewhat agree, 5 = extremely agree
Importance of maintenance and repair (M&R) cost	Level of agreement that the M&R cost of an FC car is an important barrier to its diffusion	Same as above
Importance of fuel cost	Level of agreement that the hydrogen cost is an important barrier to FC car diffusion	Same as above
Importance of durability	Level of agreement that the durability of FC and critical components is an important barrier to FC car diffusion	Same as above
Importance of an HRS network	Level of agreement that the number of accessible HRSs is an important barrier to FC car diffusion	Same as above
Importance of refueling time	Level of agreement that refueling time at HRSs is an important barrier to FC car diffusion	Same as above
Eco-friendliness of FC cars	Level of agreement that an FC car can reduce carbon emissions and mitigate air pollution	Same as above
Pride in FC cars	Level of agreement that an FC car driver would feel proud	Same as above
Safety concerns with FC cars	Level of agreement that an FC car has safety issues, such as fire hazards and explosion risks, compared with an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) car	Same as above
Societal needs of FC cars	Level of agreement that there should be more hydrogen mobility adopted for the mitigation of climate change and air pollution	Same as above
Prospects for FC cars	Level of agreement that we will eventually buy FC cars in the long run	Same as above
Driving performance	Comparative evaluation of vehicle performance of an FC car compared with an ICE car	1 = ICE car is much superior, 2 = ICE car is somewhat superior, 3 = same, 4 = FC car is somewhat superior, 5 = FC car is much superior
Driving range	Comparative evaluation of the driving range of an FC car compared with an ICE car	Same as above
Design	Comparative evaluation between the FC car design and ICE car design	Same as above
Fueling convenience	Comparative evaluation of fueling convenience between FC cars and ICE cars	Same as above

summarizes the main variables taken from the survey results and used in this study.

3.2. Analysis Methods

First, we analyzed the FC car driver survey results on satisfaction and willingness to repurchase FC cars. Satisfaction was designed to be answered on a 5-point scale with “How satisfied are you with your FC car?” (very dissatisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, average, somewhat satisfied, or very satisfied). Repurchase intention was also designed to be answered on a 5-point scale with “I intend to repurchase an FC car when I buy my next car” (very disagree, somewhat disagree, average, somewhat agree, or very agree).

The ordered logit model was used as a statistical technique to derive the factors affecting satisfaction and repurchase intention. We set satisfaction and repurchase intention, evaluated on a 5-point scale, as the dependent variables, and analyzed the model with demographic and household characteristics, FC car use and charging-related variables, and FC car awareness-related variables as independent variables.

The ordered logit model is used to estimate the relationships between an ordinal dependent variable and a set of independent variables. An ordinal variable is categorical and ordered, such as the likelihood of repurchasing a hydrogen car. In an ordered logit, an underlying score is estimated as a linear function of the independent variables and a set of cutpoints. The probability of observing an outcome corresponds to the probability that the estimated linear function and random error are within the range of the cutpoints estimated for the outcome, as follows [63]:

$$\mathrm{P}\mathrm{r}({\mathrm{o}\mathrm{u}\mathrm{t}\mathrm{c}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{m}\mathrm{e}}_{\mathrm{j}}=\mathrm{i})=\mathrm{P}\mathrm{r}({\mathrm{k}}_{\mathrm{i}-1}<{\mathsf{\beta }}_1{\mathrm{x}}_{1\mathrm{j}}+{\mathsf{\beta }}_2{\mathrm{x}}_{2\mathrm{j}}+\dots +{\mathsf{\beta }}_{\mathrm{k}}{\mathrm{x}}_{\mathrm{k}\mathrm{j}}+{\mathrm{u}}_{\mathrm{j}}\le {\mathrm{k}}_{\mathrm{i}})$$

(1)

Here, ${\mathrm{u}}_j$ is assumed to be logistically distributed in ordered logit. The coefficients ${\mathsf{\beta }}_1,{\mathsf{\beta }}_2\dots {\mathsf{\beta }}_k$ are estimated along with the cutpoints k₁, k₂…k_k−1, where k is the number of possible outcomes. k₀ is taken as −∞, and k_k is taken as +∞.

From the modeling results, we derived variables that statistically significantly affected the satisfaction and repurchase intention, and discussed the implications of these results on the FC car demand.

Second, we analyzed FC car preference from the Korean driver survey results and derived the factors affecting the purchase intention of FC cars. The FC car preference ratio was examined over time by comparing the survey results from 2017, 2019, and 2023. The purchase intention of FC cars was surveyed only in 2023, and the survey question was designed to ask the respondents to answer on a 5-point scale (not at all, somewhat not, neutral, somewhat, or very much) the question “Do you intend to purchase an FC car when purchasing your next car?” To analyze the factors affecting purchase intention, we applied the ordered logit model as in the FC car driver analysis. Purchase intention and statistically significant variables were derived from the modeling results.

Figure 2 illustrates the main analysis variables and analytical method covered in this study.

4. Results

4.1. Perspective of Early Adopters

In this section, we present the results of the FC car satisfaction and repurchase intention model analysis to examine the FC car preferences of early adopters. After investigating the two models, the main findings from the early-adopter perspective are discussed.

4.1.1. Factors Affecting FC Car Satisfaction

According to a survey of 100 early adopters, the response rates for FC car satisfaction were as follows: 4.3% were very dissatisfied, 18.6% were somewhat dissatisfied, 22.0% were neutral, 39.3% were somewhat satisfied, and 15.7% were extremely satisfied. We analyzed the ordered logit model with FC car satisfaction as the dependent variable (

Table 7. Ordered logit model of FC car satisfaction.

Variables	Coefficient	Standard Error	z	P > |z|
Gender	0.1793	0.5735	0.31	0.755
Age	−0.0720 (*)	0.0433	−1.66	0.096
Driving experience	0.0769 (*)	0.0457	1.68	0.093
Number of family members	−0.0166	0.2159	−0.08	0.939
Occupation	0.0844	0.4308	0.2	0.845
Monthly income	−0.0088	0.0523	−0.17	0.867
Number of cars	0.1943	0.2891	0.67	0.502
Region	−0.7003	0.4476	−1.56	0.118
Technology Interest	0.3195	0.2980	1.07	0.284
Eco-friendliness	−0.2004	0.3317	−0.6	0.546
Period of ownership	0.0000	0.0000	1.29	0.197
Repairs and recalls	−0.4553 (**)	0.2290	−1.98	0.048
Driving days	0.1518	0.3336	0.45	0.65
HRS in use	0.3142	0.2567	1.22	0.221
Fueling frequency	−0.0679	0.1165	−0.58	0.56
Fueling failure	−0.7125 (**)	0.2852	2.5	0.012
Importance of purchase price	0.1904	0.2755	0.69	0.49
Importance of M&R cost	−0.1658	0.3612	−0.46	0.646
Importance of fuel cost	0.2293	0.3483	0.66	0.51
Importance of durability	−0.5126	0.4746	−1.08	0.28
Importance of HRS network	0.8604 (**)	0.3976	2.16	0.03
Importance of refueling time	−0.8741 (***)	0.3042	−2.87	0.004
Satisfaction with performance	0.7821 (**)	0.3608	2.17	0.03
Satisfaction with range	0.3561	0.2491	1.43	0.153
Satisfaction rate with design	0.2413	0.2636	0.92	0.36
Satisfaction with fueling	−0.2099	0.2154	−0.97	0.33
Satisfaction with fuel cost	0.1696	0.2154	0.79	0.431
/cut1	0.5246	2.3042
/cut2	2.98206	2.3024
/cut3	4.7561	2.3433
/cut4	7.6896	2.4214
Number of observations = 100; Log likelihood = −111.82914; LR chi2 (27) = 58.12; Prob > chi2 = 0.0005; Pseudo R2 = 0.20630

Note: *** 99% significance level, ** 95% significance level, and * 90% significance level.

) and derived a statistically significant model. The explanatory variables of this model were personal characteristics, vehicle ownership and use, HRS usage patterns, the perception of the vehicles, and satisfaction with the vehicle attributes, which have been suggested as the major factors influencing vehicle selection in previous studies [52,64,65,66].

In this model, the following seven variables were found to be significant: the importance of the refueling time was significant at the 99% significance level; repairs and recalls, fueling failure, the importance of the HRS network, and satisfaction with the performance were significant at the 95% significance level; and age and driving experience were significant at the 90% significance level.

The coefficient of the refueling time was negative, which shows that FC car drivers who considered refueling time important had lower levels of satisfaction. Fueling failure also had a negative value of coefficient, which means that an unexpected charging failure experience had a negative effect on satisfaction. Repairs and recalls showed a negative relationship with satisfaction, indicating that drivers who had experienced vehicle breakdowns or recalls had lower satisfaction.

Conversely, the HRS network and vehicle performance showed a positive relationship with satisfaction, which means that users who considered the HRS scale important and were satisfied with vehicle performance tended to have higher satisfaction. Among the individual characteristics, men were more satisfied than women, and drivers with more driving experience showed higher satisfaction.

4.1.2. Factors on Repurchase Intention

The response rates for the repurchase intention of FC cars were as follows: 10.4% strongly disagreed, 23.9% somewhat disagreed, 22.1% were neutral, 26.6% somewhat agreed, and 17.9% strongly agreed. Repurchase intentions had a more than 10% higher negative response rate than the satisfaction results. We analyzed the ordered logit model, with repurchase intention as the dependent variable. A statistically significant model was derived, as shown in

Table 8. Ordered logit model of the repurchase intention.

Variables	Coefficient	Standard Error	z	P > |z|
Gender	−0.6788	0.5724	−1.19	0.236
Age	0.0016	0.0428	0.04	0.97
Driving experience	0.0452	0.0454	1	0.319
Number of family members	−0.2197	0.2026	−1.08	0.278
Occupation	−0.2885	0.4176	−0.69	0.49
Monthly income	−0.0187	0.0537	−0.35	0.727
Number of cars	0.1164	0.2910	0.4	0.689
Region	0.8238 (*)	0.4336	1.9	0.057
Technology interest	0.6234 (**)	0.3109	2.01	0.045
Eco-friendliness	−0.4206	0.3276	−1.28	0.199
Period of ownership	0.0000	0.0000	0.07	0.945
Repairs and recalls	−0.2419	0.2180	−1.11	0.267
Driving days	0.5842 (*)	0.3366	1.74	0.083
HRS in use	0.8148 (***)	0.2672	3.05	0.002
Fueling frequency	−0.0570	0.1177	−0.48	0.628
Fueling failure	−0.4383 (*)	0.2652	1.65	0.098
Importance of purchase price	0.2237	0.2888	0.77	0.439
Importance of M&R cost	−0.6295 (*)	0.3718	−1.69	0.09
Importance of fuel cost	0.2244	0.3395	0.66	0.509
Importance of durability	0.4459	0.4229	1.05	0.292
Importance of HRS network	−0.0623	0.3956	−0.16	0.875
Importance of refueling time	−0.3561	0.2895	−1.23	0.219
Satisfaction with performance	0.0453	0.3665	0.12	0.902
Satisfaction with range	0.3146	0.2538	1.24	0.215
Satisfaction with design	0.7542 (***)	0.2714	2.78	0.005
Satisfaction with fueling	0.2278	0.2074	1.1	0.272
Satisfaction with fuel cost	0.4637 (**)	0.2100	2.21	0.027
/cut1	4.7776	2.32478
/cut2	6.7814	2.3590
/cut3	8.3464	2.4048
/cut4	10.5730	2.5124
Number of observations = 100; Log likelihood = −123.963; LR chi2 (27) = 61.70; Prob > chi2 = 0.0002; Pseudo R2 = 0.1993

Note: *** 99% significance level, ** 95% significance level, and * 90% significance level.

.

In this model, the same explanatory variables as the satisfaction model were used, and, among them, the following eight variables were statistically significant: HRS in use and satisfaction with design were significant at the 99% significance level; technology interest and satisfaction with fuel costs were significant at the 95% significance level; region, driving days, fueling failure, and importance of M&R costs were significant at the 90% significance level.

The number of HRSs used and satisfaction with the FC car design showed a positive relationship with the intention to repurchase, which shows that drivers who used more HRSs and were more satisfied with the design had a higher intention to repurchase. Drivers who were more interested in cutting-edge technology and more satisfied with fuel costs were more likely to repurchase FC cars.

Conversely, the variables related to fueling failure experience and M&R cost showed a negative relationship with the repurchase intention, which indicates that drivers with more fueling failure experience or drivers who considered the M&R cost important had lower repurchase intentions. The results related to the region and driving days showed that drivers who lived in the metropolitan area or drove FC vehicles frequently had a higher repurchase intention.

Based on the model results, the main findings from an early-adopter perspective are summarized as follows.

The lack of HRS and fuel costs, which were discussed as obstacles in previous studies, did not have a negative effect on the satisfaction or repurchase intention of early adopters in Korea; instead, they appeared to be positive factors. This result suggests that the cost of hydrogen in South Korea remains at a level that can secure fuel cost competitiveness and that most buyers reside in locations with easy access to HRSs. Early adopters are securing HRSs near their homes or primary activity locations, as infrastructure is a key factor in vehicle purchase [67]. In addition, vehicle performance and design had a positive effect on early customer preferences, which could have become a driving force for the increased demand for FC cars.

However, long refueling times and fueling failure experience were considered as obstacles related to HRSs. According to the results of the FC car driver survey, the average fueling time was 23 min per event, including waiting time, and the average number of times users experienced fueling failure was 0.8 times per month.

The obstacles related to FC cars were frequent recalls and repairs and concerns about M&R costs. According to the survey results, 62.5% of the respondents had a repair experience after purchasing an FC car, and 60% experienced recalls of FCs and major parts. The Hyundai Nexo vehicles sold in Korea until 2023 were provided with a warranty of up to 10 years or 160,000 km for major components, including the FC system. Consequently, most repairs are covered during this period. However, there are concerns that maintenance and repair costs may increase after the warranty expires.

In addition, the purchase cost, which was presented as a barrier in previous studies, did not significantly affect the satisfaction and repurchase intentions of early adopters in Korea. This shows that the purchase cost is currently competitive with the conventional model due to the incentive system. However, if the support policy is not maintained, it will be difficult to continuously secure cost-competitiveness.

4.2. Analysis of Potential Adopters

The following is an analysis of the potential customers of FC cars and the factors affecting consumers’ purchase intentions.

We analyzed the percentage of drivers who chose FC cars as their preferred fuel type when purchasing their next vehicle. We obtained this ratio using the same survey questions and survey methods in 2017, 2019, and 2023 to compare the changes over time. The FC car selection ratio by year was 0.4% in 2017, 4.5% in 2019, and 1.5% in 2023. The FC car selection rate was 4.5% in 2019, which is higher than the 2017 results, but decreased to 1.5% in 2023. As shown in

Table 9. Percentage of drivers who chose FC cars as their preferred fuel type.

	FCV	BEV	Hybrid
2017	0.4%	22.3%	20.7%
2019	4.5%	24.2%	28.2%
2023	1.5%	28.0%	37.2%

, the selection rates of BEVs and hybrid electric vehicles among eco-friendly vehicles continued to increase, but the FC car selection rate decreased in 2023.

As the purchase intention of FC cars was included only in the 2023 survey, the purchase intention model was analyzed based on the 2023 data. The purchase intention of 1000 respondents was as follows: 21.5% strongly disagreed, 31.5% somewhat disagreed, 20.6% neutral, 21.2% somewhat agreed, and 5.2% strongly agreed.

We analyzed the ordered logit model with the purchase intention as the dependent variable, and a statistically significant model was derived, as shown in

Table 10. Ordered logit model for FC car purchase intention.

Variables	Coefficient	Standard Error	z	P > |z|
Gender	0.2510 (*)	0.1407	1.78	0.075
Age	0.0103 (*)	0.0062	1.66	0.098
Occupation	−0.0500	0.1388	−0.36	0.719
Monthly income	−0.0080	0.0147	−0.54	0.589
Number of cars	−0.0368	0.1120	−0.33	0.742
Region	−0.0621	0.1259	−0.49	0.622
Technology interest	0.5955 (***)	0.0803	7.42	0.000
Eco-friendliness	0.1011	0.0908	1.11	0.266
Average mileage	0.0000	0.0000	−0.99	0.323
Average fuel cost	−0.0010	0.0064	−0.16	0.873
Vehicle choice	−0.0927	0.1301	−0.71	0.476
Next purchase	0.0010	0.0256	0.04	0.968
Factor 1	0.3838 (***)	0.0802	4.79	0.000
FC car experience	0.3396 (***)	0.1297	−2.62	0.009
HRS accessibility	0.1101	0.1463	0.75	0.451
Motivation for buying an FC car	0.2779 (**)	0.1243	2.24	0.025
Importance of purchase price	0.0679	0.1008	0.67	0.5
Importance of M&R cost	−0.0797	0.1013	−0.79	0.432
Importance of fuel cost	0.0802	0.1127	0.71	0.477
Importance of durability	−0.0168	0.0971	−0.17	0.863
Importance of HRS network	−0.2852 (**)	0.1128	−2.53	0.011
Importance of refueling time	−0.0572	0.0936	−0.61	0.541
Eco-friendliness of FC cars	0.0595	0.0975	0.61	0.542
Pride in FC cars	0.2258 (***)	0.0764	2.96	0.003
Safety concerns with FC cars	−0.2247 (***)	0.0738	−3.05	0.002
Societal needs for FC cars	0.0721	0.0953	0.76	0.449
Prospects for FC cars	0.6519 (***)	0.0841	7.75	0.000
Driving performance	0.1126	0.0960	1.17	0.241
Driving range	0.2132 (***)	0.0688	3.1	0.002
Design	0.2050 (**)	0.0826	2.48	0.013
Fueling convenience	0.0751	0.0758	0.99	0.322
/cut1	3.3471	0.8809
/cut2	5.4848	0.8902
/cut3	6.8420	0.8985
/cut4	9.3804	0.9248
Number of observations = 1000 Log likelihood = −193.1262; LR chi2 (31) = 623.66; Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Pseudo R2 = 0.2072

Note: *** 99% significance level, ** 95% significance level, and * 90% significance level.

. In this model, personal characteristics, vehicle purchase characteristics and usage patterns, factor 1, related to FC car awareness, FC car experience, and the perception of FC cars and HRSs were used as explanatory variables based on previous studies [26,52,64,65,66]. Factor 1 reduced six variables, evaluating the awareness of FC car prices, subsidies, charging costs, charging methods, support systems, and HRSs, by factor analysis into one factor. It is expressed as five integer values from one to five, with a larger number indicating a higher level of awareness.

Twelve variables were found to be statistically significant with regard to the purchase intention. Technology interest, factor 1, FC car experience, pride in the FC car, safety concerns with the FC car, prospects for the FC car, and driving range were significant at the 99% significance level; motivation for buying an FC car, the importance of an HRS network, and design were significant at the 95% significance level; and gender and age were significant at the 90% significance level.

The results related to individual characteristics showed that drivers who were interested in cutting-edge technology, male drivers rather than female drivers, and relatively older drivers had higher purchase intentions. In addition, drivers who had a higher awareness of FC cars and more FC car experience had higher purchase intentions.

Regarding the characteristics of FC cars, drivers who thought positively about the economics and range of FC cars were more willing to purchase them. Among the variables related to the perception of FC cars, drivers who were proud of owning an FC car and expected hydrogen cars to be a future-oriented technology had a higher purchase intention. Conversely, drivers who had greater concerns about FC car safety or who considered infrastructure important had a lower willingness to purchase.

For potential customers, HRS accessibility was a critical factor in FC vehicle adoption. The results showed that the perceived importance of the HRS network significantly affected the purchase intention. The more the HRS network was considered to be an important decision factor when purchasing an FC car, the lower the intention to purchase an FC car. As argued in Ref. [28], it is difficult to secure a significant FCV market share with support policies, such as incentives alone, without deploying basic infrastructure.

From these results, the main findings regarding potential customers in Korea are summarized as follows:

In Korea, FC cars are still in the niche market stage, and potential customers decreased in 2023 compared with 2019. The first FC car model was released in 2018, and social interest in FCVs was high due to the declaration of a strong support policy. However, as FC cars expanded, and vehicle and infrastructure issues were reported, it seemed to have had a negative impact on FC car preference and public acceptance.

The results show that potential customers in Korea are also mostly tech-savvy with a high interest in cutting-edge technology, and drivers with high technological expectations from FC cars. However, personal environmental interest or the environmental friendliness of FC cars is not statistically significant with purchase intentions. This shows that FC car demand in Korea is formed mainly by technology enthusiasts and that demand driven by environmental friendliness is relatively insufficient.

In addition, awareness and experience with an FC car have a positive effect on demand. Specifically, positive perceptions of the vehicle image, driving range, and design can increase the purchase intention. Therefore, it is expected that continuous support policies and promotional activities will increase the potential demand. Safety issues and the limited infrastructure for FC cars are recognized as negative factors and major challenges in the spread of FC cars.

5. Conclusions

In South Korea, hydrogen mobility has successfully formed an early market led by FC passenger cars under strong government support policies. However, the FCV market remains nascent, facing challenges that hinder widespread adoption. A recent survey of current and potential FCV users identified key obstacles from a consumer perspective, focusing on vehicle durability, infrastructure, and renewable energy sources.

Vehicle Durability: Early FCV models have experienced significant durability issues, including frequent recalls and repairs, leading to concerns about M&R costs. Over 60% of early adopters reported such issues, negatively impacting their preference for FCVs. Enhancing technical aspects like durability and cost-effectiveness is essential.

Infrastructure Challenges: Access to hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) and fueling reliability are major concerns. Early adopters often choose HRS locations near their homes or workplaces, highlighting infrastructure as a critical factor in vehicle purchase decisions [67]. Unexpected fueling failures, primarily due to equipment malfunctions or hydrogen supply issues [68], pose significant barriers. For potential customers, HRS accessibility is crucial, and merely providing incentives without adequate infrastructure is insufficient for substantial market growth. Expanding HRS networks and improving operational efficiency are vital for increasing FCV adoption.

Renewable Energy Concerns: The low proportion of hydrogen produced from renewable sources is a notable issue. Korea’s hydrogen production heavily relies on fossil fuels [45], and both current and prospective customers show limited concern for environmental benefits. This indicates a low awareness of FCVs as an eco-friendly technology, reflecting the country’s fossil fuel-dependent hydrogen strategy and the limited share of renewable energy in the power grid. Transitioning to sustainable hydrogen mobility requires increasing the use of renewable energy in transportation and boosting the market share of green hydrogen.

Conclusions: Sustaining FCV growth necessitates ongoing support policies and efforts to stimulate new demand. In Korea, achieving economic feasibility for FCVs involves maintaining strong incentives and support measures. Government initiatives should also focus on education and public awareness to enhance acceptance. Despite having the largest number of FC cars, public acceptance in Korea remains low, with only 1.5% of drivers preferring FC cars in 2023. Studies in California and China similarly predict limited FC car market sizes in the near future [21,22]. Future market expansion should target long-distance heavy-duty vehicles, such as buses and trucks, where FC technology offers advantages over battery alternatives. As the number of high-capacity hydrogen vehicles increases, the entire hydrogen supply value chain, including HRS operations, is expected to scale up, improving economic efficiency. The Korean government has set a strategic goal of more than 600 hydrogen refueling points by 2030 [69]. To achieve this, public sector support for the construction and operation of HRSs will continue, aiming to improve the operational profitability and encourage private sector participation.