Study on the Realistic Basis and Influencing Factors of China–Russia Forest Carbon Sink Project Cooperation

Abstract

Current global climate change is becoming increasingly severe, and environmental pollution and ecological damage have become global challenges. Against the backdrop of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, international carbon sink cooperation has become a trend. Forests, as an important carbon sink resource, play a crucial role in mitigating climate change. How to utilize forest resources and achieve forest carbon sink project cooperation has become a hot topic of international concern. This article selects China and Russia as research objects, constructs six latent variables including economic factors, technological factors, natural factors, economic benefits, ecological benefits, and cooperation effects, establishes the Structural Equation Model (SEM), and explores the practical basis and influencing factors of China–Russia forest carbon sink project cooperation. The results show that (1) economic factors and technical factors have a positive impact on economic benefits, and have an indirect impact on the cooperation effect through economic benefits. (2) Natural factors have a positive impact on ecological benefits and have an indirect positive impact on the cooperation effect through ecological benefits; compared with economic benefits, ecological benefits have a more significant impact on the cooperation effect. (3) Natural factors are the main influencing factors of China–Russian forest carbon sink cooperation, followed by economic factors and technical factors. Based on the research results, this article deeply analyzes the main challenges faced by the cooperation between the two sides and puts forward targeted suggestions. In addition, this article also points out the future development prospects of international carbon sink cooperation, aiming to provide scientific basis and support for international carbon sink cooperation.

1. Introduction

Currently, global climate change and industrial large-scale production have brought many problems and troubles such as resource depletion, ecological damage, and environmental pollution [1]. In response to climate change and the need for green and sustainable economic transformation, the number of carbon sink projects has grown rapidly, and international carbon sink cooperation has become a trend.

International carbon sequestration cooperation, as a multidimensional and multi-level issue, has been extensively studied by the academic community both domestically and internationally in recent years. In terms of theoretical research, by reviewing existing literature, it is found that academic research on international carbon sink cooperation mainly focuses on the following four perspectives. The first approach is based on the economic perspective of carbon sink cooperation, studying the market value of carbon sinks and the international carbon sink trading system, including aspects such as carbon sink value, transaction costs, supply and demand relationships, and analyzing the impact of carbon sink trade on economic development. Guimei He et al. analyzed the development of and changes in international forestry carbon trading, summarized the characteristics and development trends of forestry carbon markets, and pointed out the progress and main challenges of domestic carbon trading [2]. David J. C. MacKay et al. believe that determining a global carbon price is necessary for countries to reach an agreement and jointly fulfill their commitments to address climate change [3]. The second approach is based on the perspective of global climate change, mainly studying the impact and response measures of international carbon sink cooperation in global climate change, including mitigating and adapting to climate change. When studying the current challenges and prospects of global climate governance, Wenjun Li believes that in order to address these challenges, efforts should be made to improve the global climate governance mechanism, accelerate the research and application of low-carbon technologies by contracting parties, and promote carbon trading [4]. The third approach is to study the international legal mechanisms and interest games of carbon sequestration cooperation from a political and legal perspective, focusing on how to promote cooperation among countries in the field of carbon sequestration through national legal means, exploring the interests and games of countries in carbon sequestration cooperation, and how to achieve win–win cooperation through policy coordination. Shipeng Yan clarified the development trajectory of the international legal mechanism for forest carbon sinks by studying the “absorption sink” measures of the Framework Convention on Climate Change, the “afforestation and reforestation” forest carbon sink mechanism under the Kyoto rules framework, and the post Kyoto era’s REDD+forest carbon sink mechanism, predicting its development trend and providing important support for the domestic legal protection of forest carbon sinks in the future [5]. The fourth approach is to study carbon sink assessment, monitoring, accounting, and measurement from a technical and methodological perspective. Yujie Fu et al. systematically elaborated on modern carbon sink assessment methods, proposing to focus on building a multi-scale and comprehensive forest carbon sink assessment system, constructing a comprehensive analysis framework for forest carbon stocks, and running through various links such as monitoring, evaluation, and enhancement of forest carbon sinks, in order to minimize the uncertainty of global forest carbon sink intensity and dynamic estimation processes [6].

From the perspective and attitude of scholars, the academic community has different views on international carbon sink cooperation: there is affirmation and support from academics such as Giacomo Grassi, who believe that forest-based climate mitigation can be achieved by protecting and strengthening carbon sinks, as well as reducing greenhouse gas emissions caused by deforestation. Some advocate for strengthening scientific policy cooperation among countries and increasing transparency in their commitments [7]. Some are cautious and skeptical, believing that there are some problems and challenges in carbon sequestration cooperation in practice. For example, Jianhui Yu et al. believe that there are inequalities in international carbon governance and carbon sequestration cooperation, and developing countries face dual pressures on the environment and natural resources. They advocate that international climate policy design should balance the differences in economic development and environmental resource decoupling between developed and developing countries [8]. Guido Ceccherini et al. pointed out that under the promotion of the bioeconomy, the demand for forest services and products continues to increase, forest logging rates increase, biomass loss increases, and carbon market demand poses challenges to sustainable forest management [9]. There are also those who believe that there are design barriers, such as Lin Zhao, who pointed out that there are different carbon measurement methods and technologies in various countries, and there are differences in measuring forest carbon sinks. They also pointed out the technical deficiencies in current carbon measurement, and that research and development are still needed for carbon sink storage measurement methods for different tree species and forest ages [10]. Sandra Brown discussed the current problems in forest carbon measurement and pointed out that in the future, the measurement of forest carbon stocks may rely more on remote sensing data, and new remote sensing data collection technologies are being developed [11].

In addition, from the research perspective or analysis dimension, the current academic research on international carbon sink cooperation mainly focuses on the analysis of China’s international carbon sink cooperation from the regional and global perspectives. For example, Wang Wen et al. studied the opportunities for China ASEAN carbon sink cooperation under the background of carbon neutrality, and explored the prospects of green finance cooperation between China and ASEAN member countries, such as green funding needs and carbon sink finance business [12]. Yingming Xu et al. pointed out that the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism has an impact on international trade rules, and trade competition based on climate change will intensify. They proposed that China should optimize its trade structure, reduce the negative impact of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism, strengthen international dialogue and cooperation, accelerate the construction of the carbon market, and enhance its influence in addressing climate change [13]. Based on the carbon flow of wood forest products brought by international trade, Huang Li et al. investigated the potential relationship between the trade of wood forest products and forest carbon reserves between China and countries along the “the Belt and Road” [14]. Some scholars have also studied international carbon sequestration cooperation from a global perspective, such as Cuicui Feng et al., who proposed cooperation models to explore the feasibility of increasing carbon sequestration and blue carbon economic benefits through global cooperation, and proposed strategies for achieving ecological and economic benefits through cooperation, guiding future policy-making and international cooperation [15]. Overall, it can be seen that the academic community lacks in-depth research and exploration on the differences and particularities of carbon sink cooperation between different countries and regions.

In view of this, considering that developing forest carbon sinks is an effective measure to address climate change and promote sustainable development, and that China has rich experience and financial and technological support in afforestation and sink enhancement, while Russia has abundant forest resources, this article selects China and Russia for in-depth analysis. Against the backdrop of carbon neutrality goals, China and Russia have demonstrated a strong willingness to cooperate on forest carbon sequestration based on their common green development concept. In recent years, China has formulated policies such as the Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Fully, Accurately, and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job in Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality and Implementation Plan for Consolidating and Enhancing Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration Capacity to clarify the goals of increasing forest coverage and accumulation, in order to promote green, low-carbon and circular development. Russia has also emphasized the sustainable management of forest resources and the enhancement of ecosystem carbon sequestration capacity through policies such as the Strategy for the Development of the Russian Federation Forestry Complex by 2030 and Strategy for Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions Socio-economic Development of the Russian Federation by 2050 [16]. Both sides expressed their willingness to strengthen cooperation in areas such as ecological environment, biodiversity conservation, and climate change response, particularly in new forms of cooperation in low-carbon technologies, carbon capture and storage, and carbon markets, in agreements such as the Treaty of Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation between China and Russia, the Joint Statement of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on International Relations and Global Sustainable Development in the New Era, and the Joint Statement of the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation on Deepening the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in the New Era [17]. In the project cooperation, China and Russia have taken multiple cooperation measures, such as holding an academic forum on forest and grass ecological construction, establishing a China–Russia Tomsk wood industry and trade cooperation zone, and building a China–Russia international carbon sink data center. With the support of these environmental policy strategies and projects, China–Russia carbon cooperation can effectively achieve resource sharing and complementary advantages, policy coordination and strategic docking, talent exchange and technological innovation, market expansion and economic development, jointly promoting the improvement of the ecological environment, biodiversity protection and sustainable forest development of the two countries, and advancing the global climate governance process.

To sum up, the academic community has made a series of valuable research results in the field of international carbon sink cooperation, covering multiple dimensions such as economics, political law, technical methods, etc., which provide rich theoretical support for international carbon sink cooperation. However, the analysis of the particularity and difference of carbon sink cooperation between different countries and regions is still insufficient. In view of this, this article mainly focuses on the realistic basis and influencing factors of China–Russian forest carbon sequestration project cooperation, and discusses the potential benefits and future development prospects of the cooperation through in-depth analysis of the realistic conditions of the two sides in terms of economy, technology and nature, as well as the challenges faced in the process of cooperation, aiming to provide scientific basis and support for China–Russian carbon sequestration cooperation, and provide experience and reference for international carbon sequestration project cooperation.

2. Theoretical Background and Research Hypotheses

2.1. Theoretical Framework

According to existing research theories, Wei Fu et al. constructed models from the aspects of forestry management level, forest disaster severity, forest stock level, etc. to study the factors affecting forest carbon sinks [18]. Ting Jin et al. measured the risks of forestry carbon sequestration projects from the perspectives of nature, management, and market [19]. Gang Tian et al. analyzed the practical basis and potential of forest carbon sink cooperation between China and Russia from the aspects of trade environment, geographical advantages, forest resources, and forest carbon storage [20]. Qian Zhang et al. elaborated on the influencing factors of the realization of forestry carbon sequestration value from the perspective of the “forest resources—carbon market—social economy” system, and explored the various benefits brought by forestry carbon sequestration [21]. Lijuan Su et al. pointed out that forest management should achieve technical feasibility, economic acceptability, and significant ecological and social benefits. In the process of indicator selection, ecological benefits (such as biodiversity, carbon sinks, etc.) and economic benefit indicators should be comprehensively considered [22]. Based on the existing research theories and experiences, this article studies the practical basis and influencing factors of China and Russia forest carbon sequestration project cooperation from six aspects: economic factors, natural factors, technological factors, economic benefits, social benefits, and cooperation effects. The influencing factors will be explored from the three aspects of economy, nature, and technology, and the expected benefits of project cooperation will be analyzed from the two aspects of economic and ecological benefits. The satisfaction and loyalty of project cooperation will be expressed by the cooperation effects, thus constructing a theoretical framework for forest carbon sink cooperation between China and Russia (as shown in Figure 1). Under this theoretical framework, this article uses the Structural Equation Model (SEM) to explore in depth the direct and indirect impacts of different factors on the cooperation of China and Russia in forest carbon sink projects.

2.2. Variable Selection and Research Hypotheses

Economic factors, as one of the key factors affecting the success of China and Russia forest carbon sequestration project cooperation, involve multiple aspects, including trade conditions, market demand, market prices, and price stability. These factors collectively affect the economic benefits and sustainability of the project. According to market supply and demand theory and international trade theory, changes in external trade, environment, and market demand are closely related to carbon prices, and they jointly affect international carbon trading and cooperation [23]. The favorable international environment and economic and trade cooperation foundation provide strong guarantees for the development of forest carbon sink cooperation between China and Russia [20]. The continuously improving trade situation, growing carbon market demand, and higher carbon market prices can provide a more stable cooperation environment and broader market space for both parties. However, the carbon sink market is also affected by multiple risk factors, among which price risk is a factor with relatively high uncertainty [24]. From a risk management perspective, a stable carbon price can help reduce investors’ risks, increase their confidence and enthusiasm, and thus promote the development and implementation of projects. Based on existing research and analysis results, this article proposes hypothesis H1: Economic factors have a significant positive impact on economic benefits.

As a fundamental condition for forest carbon sequestration project cooperation, natural factors have an impact on the potential of cooperative projects in ecological protection and environmental improvement. Some scholars often choose indicators such as forest coverage, forest area, or forest stock to measure forest resources [25,26,27], while the abundant forest resources and carbon storage in China and Russia provide conditions for cooperation in carbon sequestration projects. At the same time, the superior geographical advantages of China and Russia have promoted personnel exchanges between the two countries and promoted the development of forestry carbon sink projects [20]. Gang Tian et al. pointed out that forest natural disasters are an important factor in reducing forest carbon sequestration efficiency, and the implementation of carbon compensation projects should pay attention to strengthening forest management [28]. Therefore, this study selected geographical location, forest coverage, carbon storage, and forest natural disasters to measure natural factors. According to the theories of ecology and sustainable development, the superiority of natural conditions will have a positive impact on ecological benefits and sustainable development, thereby promoting cross-border carbon sink cooperation. Based on this, hypothesis H2 is proposed: natural factors have a significant positive impact on ecological benefits.

Technical factors, as one of the key factors affecting the success of carbon sequestration cooperation, cover all technical aspects related to carbon capture, carbon sequestration, technology research and development, cost control, and talent cultivation and exchange. These technical factors not only directly affect the economic benefits brought by the project, but also have an impact on the implementation efficiency and quality of the project. As Xia Jiang pointed out that economic growth affects the utilization of forest resources through technological progress, thereby affecting the stock of forest resources [29]. It is worth noting that the development process of forest carbon sequestration projects is complex and requires multiple stages, including design, approval, filing, implementation and monitoring, emission reduction verification, and emission reduction distribution. Each stage requires a strict technical review [19]. It can be seen that technical support is crucial in carbon sequestration cooperation. In forest carbon sequestration projects, the application of technological progress and innovation is mainly reflected in two aspects: carbon capture and storage [30]. In terms of carbon capture, optimizing forest management strategies, such as selecting efficient carbon sequestration tree species, adjusting forest stand structure, and improving forest productivity, can enhance the forest’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and help with carbon sequestration and sink enhancement [31]. At the same time, by utilizing modern technological means such as remote sensing monitoring and drone inspections, accurate measurement and prediction of forest carbon sinks can be achieved, providing strong support for scientific decision-making in projects. In terms of carbon storage, by developing advanced carbon sequestration technologies such as geological sequestration and mineral immobilization [32], captured carbon dioxide can be safely and stably stored underground or in minerals, avoiding its re-release into the atmosphere. In addition, technological progress and innovation are not only reflected in the modernization of equipment, but also in a deeper understanding and application of the carbon cycle mechanism in forest ecosystems, which is an important way to improve forest carbon storage capacity. For example, by properly regulating the material cycle and energy flow of forest ecosystems, carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil can be promoted, further enhancing the carbon storage potential of forests. Leonel J.R. Nunes et al. pointed out that forest policies and strategies should aim to extend the carbon storage capacity of trees and forests for as long as possible, and increase the carbon storage of vegetation and soil through forest management [33]. The carbon capture and storage capacity of forests directly affects the carbon absorption and storage efficiency of projects, as well as the environmental benefits they bring. Secondly, the research and application costs brought about by forest carbon sequestration technology are also indispensable economic considerations in technological factors. In forest carbon sequestration projects, the level of research and application costs affects the development and promotion of advanced technologies, as well as the economic feasibility and market competitiveness of the project. In addition, the implementation of carbon sequestration projects involves the pre-measurement and prediction of forest carbon sequestration, as well as the post monitoring and verification of forest carbon sequestration, which require the participation of professional technical personnel. Due to the special nature of the project, on-site investigations by professional personnel are needed to ensure the authenticity and effectiveness of forest carbon sequestration [18]. The cultivation and exchange of technical talents can not only promote technological innovation and improve productivity, but also promote international cooperation and exchange, providing strong human and intellectual support for project implementation. From this, it can be seen that strengthening technological research and innovation, improving the economic and feasibility of technology, can promote the development of forest carbon sequestration projects and the sustainable management of forest resources. Based on this, this article proposes hypothesis H3: Technological factors have a significant positive impact on economic benefits.

Economic benefits, as another key latent variable, measure the economic return and market influence of a project. Wei Chen measures the benefits of carbon sequestration projects based on the value of forest carbon sinks [34]. The higher the carbon sequestration price, the more financial benefits the project will receive, and the larger the scale of carbon sequestration project cooperation. As another important indicator for measuring the economic benefits of a project, investment return takes into account both the cost and benefits of the project. Investors hope to participate in forestry carbon sequestration projects in a low-cost and efficient manner [24]. The higher the investment return, the more significant the economic benefits, and investors will have stronger confidence to participate in carbon sequestration projects, providing continuous financial support for the projects and promoting their sustainable development. The international carbon market share reflects the competitiveness and influence of the project in the global carbon market. Carbon sequestration projects adopt different compensation standards, resulting in certain differences in market share [35]. High-quality compensation standards can attract more participants to enter the market, thereby expanding market share and enhancing the overall efficiency of the carbon sequestration market. This can also attract more high-quality projects to enter the market, ensuring the effectiveness and sustainability of the projects. Therefore, hypothesis H4 is proposed: Economic benefits have a significant positive impact on the effectiveness of cooperation.

Ecological benefits refer to the positive impact of forest carbon sequestration projects on the ecological environment. In many cases, the benefits of forest carbon sequestration projects are usually directly based on the carbon storage obtained by the project [34]. The implementation of the project can effectively increase forest carbon sequestration, thereby addressing climate change issues. In addition to increasing forest carbon sinks, soil and water conservation, biodiversity, and other important forest ecological functions are also important [22]. Forest carbon sequestration projects are often accompanied by the protection and restoration of forest ecosystems, which not only help maintain biodiversity and protect rare animals, but also improve regional air and soil quality. Realizing ecological benefits is one of the main goals of forest carbon sequestration projects and an important driving force for cooperation between both parties. Good ecological benefits can enhance the sense of identification and satisfaction of both parties towards the project, thereby promoting the deepening development of the cooperative relationship. On this basis, hypothesis H5 is proposed: Ecological benefits have a significant positive impact on cooperation effectiveness.

The cooperation effect refers to the actual achievements and quality of the cooperative relationship between China and Russia in the forest carbon sequestration project cooperation. This article reflects the breadth and depth of cooperation in terms of the number and scale of collaborative projects, measures the speed and efficiency of project execution in terms of collaboration efficiency, evaluates the long-term and stable nature of collaborative relationships in terms of collaboration stability and sustainability, and reflects the satisfaction and mutual trust of both parties in the collaboration process and results, thus providing a more intuitive explanation of the collaboration effect.

3. Materials and Methods

3.1. Data Sources

This study designed a survey questionnaire based on a pre-set variable system (as shown in

Table 1. Variable system.

Latent Variables	Number	Observed Variables
Economic factors	JJ1	Trade situation between China and Russia
	JJ2	China’s carbon market demand
	JJ3	Demand in the Russian carbon market
	JJ4	Chinese carbon market price
	JJ5	Russian carbon market prices
	JJ6	Price stability of China’s carbon market
	JJ7	Price stability of the Russian carbon market
Natural factors	ZR1	The degree of geographical superiority between China and Russia
	ZR2	Forest coverage rate between China and Russia
	ZR3	Forest carbon storage in China and Russia
	ZR4	Number of natural forest disasters in China
	ZR5	Number of natural forest disasters in Russia
Technical factors	JS1	Progressiveness of China’s carbon capture and storage technology
	JS2	Progressiveness carbon capture and storage technology in Russia
	JS3	Research and application costs of forest carbon sequestration technology in China
	JS4	Research and application costs of forest carbon sequestration technology in Russia
	JS5	Training and Exchange of Technical Talents between China and Russia
Economic benefits	BB1	Carbon trading revenue
	BB2	Return on investment
	BB3	International carbon market share
Ecological benefits	CC1	Increase carbon sequestration
	CC2	Enriching biodiversity
	CC3	Improve air water and soil quality
Cooperative effects	AA1	Number and scale of collaborative projects
	AA2	Cooperative efficiency
	AA3	Stability and sustainability of cooperation
	AA4	Satisfaction and mutual trust in cooperation

), and used the Likert five points scale method for scoring: 1 is “completely disagree”, 2 is “basically disagree”, 3 is “average”, 4 is “basically agree”, and 5 is “completely agree”. The survey subjects select the corresponding scores for each question based on their cognitive situation, in order to evaluate the impact of different factors on forest carbon sink cooperation. This study distributed questionnaires to higher education groups who have knowledge of forest carbon sinks and have studied or researched forestry, and collected questionnaire data from both China and Russia. The questionnaire explicitly asked respondents about their correct understanding of forest carbon sinks, which refers to the process by which forest ecosystems absorb carbon dioxide and fix it in vegetation and soil to reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air. The survey will be stopped for respondents who make incorrect judgments or choices. Understanding carbon sequestration means that respondents need to have basic concepts and knowledge of forests as a carbon sink mechanism, and recognize their important role in carbon cycling and climate change. This accurate understanding will enable respondents to evaluate the reality and influencing factors based on accurate information, and improve the objectivity and scientificity of questionnaire data. This questionnaire survey also considered factors such as gender, education level, and major, and was distributed to various cities and regions in China and Russia to ensure the representativeness and breadth of the questionnaire. A total of 531 questionnaires were distributed, including 330 in China and 201 in Russia. A total of 439 valid questionnaires were collected, with a response rate of 82.67%.

3.2. Model Building

This study uses the Structural Equation Model (SEM), an estimation and causal relationship testing method, to empirically analyze the practical basis and influencing factors of China and Russia forest carbon sink cooperation. In a SEM, two models are usually used, namely the structural model and the measurement model, and are generally represented by a linear equation system.

3.2.1. Measurement Model

The measurement model consists of two parts: latent variables and observed variables. This article sets up six latent variables, namely economic factors, natural factors, technological factors, economic benefits, ecological benefits, and cooperation effects, and corresponding 27 observed variables. This model is mainly used to describe the relationship between observed variables and latent variables, and its formula is as follows:

$$X={\Lambda }_X\xi +\delta$$

(1)

$$Y={\Lambda }_Y\eta +\epsilon$$

(2)

In Formulas (1) and (2), $\xi$ and $\eta$, respectively, represent exogenous latent variables and endogenous latent variables; $X$ and $Y$ are the observed variables of exogenous latent variables and endogenous latent variables, respectively; ${\Lambda }_X$ and ${\Lambda }_Y$ are the factor loading matrices of the observed variable on the latent variable, representing the relationship between $X$ and $\xi$, $Y$ and $\eta$, respectively; $\delta$ and $\epsilon$ are the measurement errors of the explicit variable.

3.2.2. Structural Model

The structural model is mainly used to handle linear relationships between latent variables and is an explanation of causal relationships between latent variables. In this study, economic factors, natural factors, and technological factors are considered as exogenous latent variables. Economic benefits, ecological benefits, and cooperative effects serve as endogenous latent variables. This model reveals the interactions and relationships between latent variables, and its formula is as follows:

$$\eta =B\xi +\Gamma \eta +\zeta$$

(3)

In the formula, $\eta$ is the endogenous latent variable, $\xi$ is the endogenous latent variable, $B$ represents the influence of exogenous latent variables on endogenous latent variables, $\Gamma$ represents the relationship between endogenous latent variables, $B$ and $\Gamma$ are path coefficients, and $\zeta$ is the error of the structural equation, which is the unexplained part.

3.3. Statistical Description and Normality Test

The analysis data of SEM must be based on the premise of satisfying normal distribution. Through descriptive statistical analysis, it was found that the average scores of each variable were between 3 and 4, indicating that the research population scored above the average level in terms of influencing factors and collaborative outcomes. The normality test was conducted on each measurement item, and the output results showed that the absolute values of the skewness coefficient and kurtosis coefficient of each measurement item were below 3 and 8, respectively, which met the standards. Therefore, it can be concluded that the data of each measurement item follows an approximate normal distribution.

3.4. Reliability and Validity Testing

3.4.1. Cronbach’s Alpha Coefficient Reliability Test

To ensure the internal consistency of the scale, this study calculated the Cronbach’s alpha coefficient to test the reliability of the questionnaire. As shown in

Table 2. Reliability analysis of factors influencing China and Russia forest carbon sequestration cooperation and its expected benefits scale.

Variable	Cronbach’s α	Number of Items
Economic factors	0.866	7
Natural factors	0.807	5
Technical factors	0.839	5
Influence factors	0.936	17
Economic benefit	0.707	3
Ecological benefit	0.864	3
Cooperative effect	0.858	4
Expected benefits	0.925	10

, Cronbach’s alpha values for the six dimensions of economic factors, natural factors, technological factors, economic benefits, ecological benefits, and cooperative effects are all greater than 0.7. The overall reliability coefficients for influencing factors and expected benefits are within the range of 0.9–1, indicating that the questionnaire has good reliability.

3.4.2. KMO and Bartlett Validity Tests

This study used KMO and Bartlett’s test to measure the validity of the questionnaire. According to

Table 3. KMO and Bartlett’s test.

Sampling Sufficient Kaiser Meyer Olkin Metric		0.974
Bartlett sphericity test	Approximate chi square	7407.51
	Df	351
	Sig	0

, the KMO output value is 0.974, which is greater than 0.9, and the p value is 0.000, which is less than 0.05. It passed the significance test with a significance level of 95%, indicating that the scale data are suitable for factor analysis.

3.4.3. Convergence Validity and Composite Reliability

This study further examines the convergence validity and Composite Reliability (CR) of each dimension. This article uses Average Variance Extracted (AVE) to measure convergence validity, which measures the degree to which observed variables explain latent variables. The larger the AVE value, the higher the convergence validity. Correspondingly, a CR value of 0.6 or above indicates good consistency and combination reliability of the scale. The calculation formulas for AVE and CR are as follows:

$$\begin{array}{c}AVE={\displaystyle \frac{\sum {\lambda }_1^2}{\sum {\lambda }_1^2+\sum \mathrm{var}\left({\epsilon }_{\mathrm{i}}\right)}}\\ \end{array}$$

(4)

$$CR={\displaystyle \frac{{\left(\sum {\lambda }_{\mathrm{i}}\right)}^2}{{\left(\sum {\lambda }_{\mathrm{i}}\right)}^2+\sum \mathrm{var}\left({\epsilon }_{\mathrm{i}}\right)}}$$

(5)

In Formulas (4) and (5), ${\lambda }_{\mathrm{i}}$ represents the standardized factor load and ${\epsilon }_{\mathrm{i}}$ represents the measurement error.

According to the analysis results of latent variable convergence validity and combination reliability in

Table 4. Convergence validity and combination reliability.

Observed Variables	Latent Variables	Standardization Factor Load	p	Multivariate Correlation Square	CR	AVE
JJ7	Economic factors	0.671		0.45	0.866	0.48
JJ6		0.699	***	0.489
JJ5		0.647	***	0.419
JJ4		0.758	***	0.575
JJ3		0.663	***	0.44
JJ2		0.75	***	0.563
JJ1		0.653	***	0.426
ZR5	Natural factors	0.573		0.328	0.808	0.461
ZR4		0.584	***	0.341
ZR3		0.745	***	0.555
ZR2		0.743	***	0.552
ZR1		0.727	***	0.529
JS5	Technical factors	0.765		0.585	0.838	0.508
JS4		0.647	***	0.419
JS3		0.708	***	0.501
JS2		0.726	***	0.527
JS1		0.714	***	0.51
BB1	Economic benefits	0.728		0.53	0.72	0.462
BB2		0.617	***	0.381
BB3		0.69	***	0.476
CC3	Ecological benefits	0.832		0.692	0.865	0.682
CC2		0.828	***	0.686
CC1		0.817	***	0.667
AA1	Cooperative effects	0.75		0.563	0.858	0.602
AA2		0.795	***	0.632
AA3		0.798	***	0.637
AA4		0.759	***	0.576

*** p < 0.000.

, it can be seen that the AVE values of economic factors, natural factors, and economic benefits are between 0.36–0.5, reaching the acceptance threshold. The AVE values of technical factors, ecological benefits, and cooperation effects have all reached 0.5 or above, indicating high convergence validity. According to the test results, the CR values of all latent variables are above 0.6, indicating good combination reliability. Overall, all latent variables have good convergent validity and combinatorial reliability.

4. Results

4.1. Model Adaptation Test

The fitting index of the model was calculated, and the CMIN/DF was 2.445, which is ideal for fitting within the range of 1–3. The RMSEA was 0.057, within the range of <0.08, indicating good fit of the results. IFI, TLI, and CFI were 0.937, 0.930, and 0.937, respectively, all of which are greater than 0.9, indicating excellent adaptation of the results. AGFI and GFI were 0.839 and 0.866, respectively, reaching levels above 0.8, indicating good compatibility. Overall, the model has good adaptability, and the obtained model topology is shown in Figure 2.

4.2. Path Coefficient and Factor Load Analysis Results

Analyzing the model path coefficients (as shown in

Table 5. Estimation results of model path coefficient.

			Std.	C.R.	p
Economic benefits	<---	Economic factors	0.591	2.936	0.003
Economic benefits	<---	Technical factors	0.435	2.182	0.029
Ecological benefits	<---	Natural factors	0.898	11.761	***
Cooperative effects	<---	Economic benefits	0.302	4.898	***
Cooperative effects	<---	Ecological benefits	0.733	9.97	***

*** p < 0.000.

) and factor loading coefficients (as shown in Table 4) can verify the theoretical assumptions of the model, leading to the following conclusions:

• Economic factors have a significant positive impact on economic benefits. According to the analysis results, the correlation coefficient between economic factors and economic benefits is 0.591, with a p value of 0.003 (less than 0.05), reaching a significant level, indicating that economic factors have a significant positive impact on economic benefits. Among the various observed variables of economic factors, China’s carbon market price has the greatest impact on economic factors, with a factor loading of 0.758, indicating that the higher the carbon price, the higher the economic benefits that China and Russia can achieve from carbon sink cooperation. This is followed by China’s carbon market demand, China’s carbon market price stability, Russia’s carbon market price stability, Russia’s carbon market demand, China–Russia trade status, and Russia’s carbon market price.
• Technological factors have a significant positive impact on economic benefits. From the analysis results, it can be seen that the correlation coefficient between technical factors and cooperation effectiveness is 0.435, with a p value of 0.029 (less than 0.05), reaching a significant level, indicating a positive correlation between technical factors and economic benefits. In order to improve the effectiveness of cooperation, efforts can be made to enhance the training and exchange of technical talents between China and Russia, with a factor load coefficient of 0.76, which has the greatest impact on technical factors. This indicates that the better the communication and exchange between scholars related to forest carbon sequestration in the two countries, the greater the economic benefits for the forest carbon sequestration cooperation project between China and Russia. The next most influential ones are Russia’s carbon capture and storage technology, China’s forest carbon sink technology research and application costs, China’s carbon capture and storage technology, and Russia’s forest carbon sink technology research and application costs.
• Natural factors have a significant positive impact on ecological benefits. The empirical analysis results indicate that natural factors have a significant positive impact on ecological benefits. The correlation coefficient between them is 0.898, with a p-value of 0.000, which also reaches a significant level. Among the various observed variables in natural factors, improving ecological benefits can mainly be achieved by increasing forest resource coverage and forest carbon storage in China and Russia.
• Economic benefits have a significant positive impact on cooperation effectiveness. The data analysis results show that the correlation coefficient between economic benefits and cooperation effectiveness is 0.302, with a p-value of 0.000, reaching a significant level. Therefore, it can be concluded that the higher the economic benefits obtained from the China and Russia forest carbon sink cooperation, the better the cooperation effect.
• Ecological benefits have a significant positive impact on cooperation effectiveness. According to the research results, the correlation coefficient between ecological benefits and cooperative effects is 0.733, with a p-value of 0.000, still reaching a significant level. Therefore, it can be concluded that improving and enhancing ecological benefits can to some extent bring about an improvement in the effectiveness of cooperation.

5. Discussion

5.1. Analysis of Impact Effects

By calculating the direct, indirect, and total effects of the model, the impact of the causal variable on the outcome variable can be measured. From

Table 6. Analysis of impact effects.

	Structure	Effect Coefficient	Inspection Results
Direct effect	Economic factors → Economic benefit	0.591	Pass
	Technical factors → Economic benefit	0.435	Pass
	Natural factors → Ecological benefit	0.898	Pass
	Economic benefit → Cooperative effect	0.302	Pass
	Ecological benefit → Cooperative effect	0.733	Pass
Indirect effect	Economic factors → Economic benefit → Cooperative effect	0.179	Pass
	Natural factors → Ecological benefit → Cooperative effect	0.658	Pass
	Technical factors → Economic benefit → Cooperative effect	0.132	Pass
Total effect	Economic factors → Cooperative effect	0.179	Pass
	Natural factors → Cooperative effect	0.685	Pass
	Technical factors → Cooperative effect	0.132	Pass

, it can be seen that among the various influencing factors, natural factors have the greatest direct impact on ecological benefits, while economic factors have the greatest direct impact on economic benefits compared to technological factors. Among the expected benefits, ecological benefits have the greatest impact on the effectiveness of cooperation. In addition, economic benefits play a mediating role in the positive impact of economic and technological factors on cooperation effectiveness, indicating that the more favorable the economic or technological factors are, the more significant the economic benefits will be, and thus the better the cooperation effect. Ecological benefits play a mediating role in the positive impact of technological factors on cooperation effectiveness, indicating that the more favorable natural conditions are, the more significant the ecological benefits will be, resulting in higher cooperation satisfaction and better cooperation effectiveness. Among the total effects of various influencing factors on the cooperation effect, natural factors have the greatest impact on the cooperation effect, followed by economic and technological factors, indicating that natural factors are the main factors affecting the cooperation of China and Russia in forest carbon sequestration projects.

The above analysis and research reveal the impact mechanism of the China–Russian forest carbon sequestration cooperation project. However, this work still has some limitations. The data collection is limited by the subjective cognition of the respondents, which may lead to a certain deviation in the data. In terms of variable selection, because the project involves policy, economy, technology, environment and other factors, it is difficult to fully cover, so only representative variables can be selected. At the same time, although the structural equation model is suitable for dealing with complex relationships and multivariate data, the effectiveness of its results still depends on the model assumptions, and the analysis of complex causality is challenging, so it is necessary to continue to explore more optimized methods in subsequent research.

5.2. Main Challenges and Obstacles of Carbon Sink Cooperation

5.2.1. Main Challenges of China–Russian Forest Carbon Sequestration Cooperation

Both China and Russia are rich in forest resources and play an important role in the global carbon sink market. The carbon sequestration cooperation project between the two countries is of great significance to promote the regulation of the global carbon balance, but there are still different challenges in promoting the China–Russian forest carbon sequestration cooperation project.

First, the divergence of the global carbon offset mechanism and the fragmentation of the market system. Forest carbon sequestration is an important carbon offset project in the global carbon sequestration market, so it is very important to measure the amount of forest carbon sequestration. However, according to the statistics of the world bank, there were 30 carbon offset mechanisms in the world by 2020. The requirements of various carbon offset mechanisms in terms of legal binding force, monitoring, reporting and certification (MRV) are not uniform, making different carbon offset mechanisms different in terms of effectiveness, permanence and sustainability of carbon emission reduction [36]. This may lead to large deviations in the accounting and certification of forest carbon sequestration, resulting in differences between the two sides in the formulation of cooperation objectives and project evaluation, affecting the planning of project cooperation and hindering the advancement of the project. Different measurement methods adopted by countries will also affect the comparability and credibility of data in international cooperation, thus increasing the difficulty and complexity of international cooperation. In addition, different measurement methods will also lead to differences between the trading parties on the value of the carbon sink products traded, which increases the transaction costs and risks, reduces the willingness to cooperate on carbon sink projects, and affects the effectiveness of international cooperation. Therefore, it is necessary for China and Russia to jointly build a regional carbon offset standard system, jointly launch a forest carbon sequestration accounting framework, develop a unified carbon sequestration measurement methodology, and develop a blockchain traceability platform compatible with the data of the two countries to ensure the scientificity and accuracy of the data and the effectiveness of project cooperation.

Second, natural disasters pose a major ecological and economic threat. Both China and Russia are rich in forest resources. However, according to data from the Russian Federal Forestry Agency, in 2021, the average annual forest fire area in Russia exceeded 19 million mu, and according to data from the official website of the Chinese State Forestry and Grassland Administration, the average annual spread area of pests and diseases such as pine wilt disease in China exceeded 2 million mu. These natural disasters will not only destroy forest vegetation and reduce carbon sequestration capacity, but also increase the economic cost and management difficulty of the project. Although China and Russia have project cooperation in many aspects, most of these projects are concentrated in aerospace, energy and other heavy industries, and the cooperation mechanism between the two sides in disaster early warning, emergency response and post disaster recovery is not mature enough. The two countries should strengthen the construction of monitoring and early warning systems, use satellite remote sensing, UAV monitoring, ground sensor networks, forest disaster prediction and other advanced technical means to monitor forest conditions in real time, and provide timely warnings of disasters such as fires, pests and diseases, as well as improving the emergency response ability, improving emergency plans, strengthening the construction of professional teams, and ensuring that disasters can be handled quickly and effectively. In addition, comprehensive prevention and control strategies should be implemented, fire source management should be strengthened, biological prevention and control technology should be popularized, stand structure should be improved, and forest disaster resistance should be improved.

Third, the continued weakness of the international carbon sink market has exacerbated market risks and financing difficulties. In the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol, the implementation effect of carbon emission reduction in developed countries is not good, and the demand of the international forestry carbon sink market is seriously insufficient. In the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol in 2012, the operation mechanism of the clean development mechanism (CDM) project was reformed, and the developed countries in the EU region significantly reduced their carbon emission reduction targets. In addition to the multiple challenges of the global economic downturn, the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the energy crisis, the food crisis and geopolitics since 2020, the international market transaction of forestry carbon sequestration has continued to be weak, and the global forestry carbon sequestration transaction has been depressed [37]. In the sluggish international market environment, the carbon price is unstable, and the two countries’ confidence in the international carbon sink market is insufficient. There may be problems such as project financing difficulties, imbalance between market supply and demand, waste of resources, and increased investment risks of market participants. The two sides need to strengthen policy communication, expand financing channels, optimize project management, monitor and analyze market dynamics, and establish a risk warning and response mechanism to jointly address the challenges posed by the continued weakness of the international carbon sink market.

5.2.2. Obstacles Faced by Developing Countries

Forest carbon sink has a significant effect on mitigating climate change by absorbing and storing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. There is no doubt that international cooperation has strategic value in the field of carbon sequestration, which helps to increase the area of forests, improve the quality of forests, enhance the function of carbon sequestration, so as to accelerate the development of global forest carbon sequestration and alleviate the problem of climate warming. However, it should be noted that there is a large gap between developing countries and developed countries in carbon governance [38]. Developing countries need to fundamentally solve the interlocking fault of technology, capital and institutional governance in this field. At the technical level, they often face the main obstacles of lack of professional knowledge and technology, lack of sufficient resources to research and develop new technologies, and lack of training and technology transfer opportunities. Technology transfer and personnel training in international carbon sink cooperation are important ways for developing countries to overcome technological barriers. It can promote technology exchange and enable developed countries to provide advanced technology and experience in forest management, afforestation technology and carbon sequestration measurement to developing countries, so as to improve the efficiency of forest carbon sequestration projects and forest carbon storage capacity. At the financial level, forest carbon sequestration projects usually require a large amount of initial investment, including land purchase, seedling planting, forest management, carbon sequestration monitoring and measurement. And carbon sequestration projects usually have the characteristics of long cycle, large investment and slow return. Developing countries often lack sufficient funds to support carbon sink projects. International cooperation can help relatively poor countries overcome financial barriers and achieve financing by providing financial assistance, establishing forest carbon Partnership Fund and Carbon Fund [39], establishing carbon trading market and so on [40]. For example, developed countries can purchase carbon sinks from developing countries through the carbon trading market, so as to provide financial support for forest carbon sink projects. At the same time, it can also avoid excessive deforestation, support forest protection and sustainable forestry management, and increase forest carbon reserves under the international framework of climate change mitigation. At the policy system level, developing countries often have problems in the field of forest carbon sinks, such as an imperfect policy system, imperfect laws and regulations, and poor adaptability of international rules. Some developing countries have not yet established a sound forest carbon sequestration policy system, and the laws and regulations on forest management and carbon trading are not sound enough, resulting in the lack of basis and guarantee in the process of development, trading and supervision of projects. In addition, as the rules and standards of the international carbon market are mostly formulated by developed countries, and there are strict requirements on the qualification conditions, monitoring technology level, carbon sink accounting methods and other aspects of forest carbon sink projects, it may be difficult for developing countries to meet these standards [41]. The realization of international cooperation can promote the coordination of countries at the policy level and jointly formulate the goals and plans of carbon sink development. At the same time, developing countries can also learn from the successful experience of other countries to formulate forest carbon sequestration policies suitable for their national conditions and provide policy guarantee for forest carbon sequestration projects. Therefore, developing countries can achieve technology transfer, capital flow and policy coordination through international cooperation in carbon sinks, so as to jointly promote the development of global carbon sinks and address the challenges of climate governance. It can be seen that international cooperation in carbon sinks is an effective strategy for mitigating climate change.

5.3. Future Prospects and Cooperation Suggestions

With the in-depth development of climate governance, international cooperation in carbon sinks has gradually moved from traditionalism to diversification, involving mutual restraint and interaction in politics, finance, science and technology and other fields, shaping the pattern and trend of international cooperation in carbon sinks. In the future, in order to maximize the effect of international cooperation on carbon sequestration, it is necessary to strengthen cooperation from the three dimensions of ‘technical feasibility—economic feasibility—ecological benefit compatibility’ to promote international cooperation on carbon sequestration in a more comprehensive, efficient and sustainable direction.

At the technical level, countries should strengthen international cooperation, encourage technology sharing and innovation, and jointly develop and promote advanced technologies for carbon capture, storage, measurement, monitoring and management. They should promote the international community to reach a consensus on forest carbon sequestration measurement, adopt internationally recognized measurement methods and standards, unify carbon sequestration accounting technical specifications, and ensure the scientificity and effectiveness of cooperation projects. They should jointly formulate forest carbon sequestration informatization construction standards, establish forest carbon sequestration measurement and monitoring database, provide platform support for forest carbon sequestration project development and carbon sequestration trading, and enhance the credibility of international cooperation. And they should build a talent pool and technology exchange platform in the field of carbon sequestration technology, promote exchanges and learning among talents from different disciplines in various countries, and realize technology transfer and experience sharing.

At the economic level, countries should promote the establishment of an international carbon market, stabilize carbon prices through cross-border carbon trading, and reduce the impact of price fluctuations on the economy of projects. They should explore government subsidies, carbon market transactions, green finance and other financing channels, seek diversified cooperation modes, reduce cooperation costs and improve the economic return of the project. Through market mechanism and policy guidance, countries should promote the balance of supply and demand in the carbon market, and realize the rational allocation and effective utilization of carbon sink resources. They should develop the carbon derivatives market, establish a risk early warning mechanism, and conduct risk management through carbon futures, options and other financial derivatives to enhance the risk tolerance of market participants.

At the ecological level, countries should strengthen the construction of forest disaster monitoring and early warning systems, establish an emergency response mechanism, use advanced technology and early warning models to predict and assess potential disaster risks, improve the accuracy and timeliness of early warning, and ensure that rapid action can be taken when disasters occur to reduce losses. They should adopt scientific forest management and management technologies, such as mixed forest construction, close to nature management, etc., to improve the stability and resistance of forest ecosystem. They should promote the establishment of an international disaster assistance mechanism to provide technical and financial support to the affected countries to jointly address the challenges posed by climate change. To implement the ecological compensation mechanism, governments should encourage more subjects to participate in the cooperation of forest carbon sequestration projects, and reward and compensate afforestation and other ecological protection activities, so as to achieve a win–win situation of ecological and economic benefits.

6. Conclusions

This study collected the relevant data of forest carbon sequestration cooperation between China and Russia in the form of questionnaire, and built a structural equation model on this basis to explore the realistic basis and influencing factors of forest carbon sequestration cooperation between China and Russia. Through our research, this article draws the following conclusions: (1) economic factors and technical factors have a positive impact on economic benefits, and have an indirect impact on the cooperation effect through economic benefits; (2) natural factors have a positive impact on ecological benefits and have an indirect positive impact on the cooperation effect through ecological benefits, and compared with economic benefits, ecological benefits have a more significant impact on the cooperation effect; (3) natural factors are the main influencing factors of China–Russian forest carbon sink cooperation, followed by economic factors and technical factors. In addition, at the current stage of carbon sequestration governance, the differences in the global carbon offset mechanism and the fragmentation of the market system, the major ecological and economic threats posed by natural disasters, and the continued weakness of the international carbon sequestration market exacerbated market risks and financing difficulties are all challenges facing China–Russia carbon sequestration cooperation. Based on this, this article puts forward targeted suggestions for the cooperation between the two sides. In the future, international carbon sink cooperation can be strengthened from the three dimensions of “technical feasibility—economic feasibility—Ecological Benefit Compatibility” to contribute to global climate governance.