Research on the Development of the New Energy Vehicle Industry in the Context of ASEAN New Energy Policy

Abstract

The green transformation of traditional energy structures and the development of the new energy industry are crucial drivers of sustainable development in the country. The ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (2016–2025; APAEC [2016–2025]), established in 2016, has significantly promoted the growth of the new energy sector and enhanced energy structures across Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). This initiative has also inspired these countries to develop corresponding industrial policies aimed at supporting the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, resulting in significant growth in this sector within the ASEAN region. This paper analyzes the factors influencing the development of the NEV industry in the context of ASEAN’s new energy policies, drawing empirical insights from data collected across six ASEAN countries from 2013 to 2024. Following the implementation of the APAEC (2016–2025), it was observed that ASEAN countries reached a consensus on energy development and cooperation, collaboratively advancing the NEV industry through regional policies. Furthermore, factors such as national governance, financial development, education levels, and the size of the automotive market positively contribute to the growth of the NEV industry in ASEAN. Conversely, high energy consumption can hinder its progress. Additionally, further research indicates that the APAEC (2016–2025) has exerted a more pronounced impact on countries with robust automotive industry foundations or those prioritizing relevant policies. The findings of this paper offer valuable insights for ASEAN countries in the formulating policies for the NEV industry, optimizing energy structures, and achieving low-carbon energy transition and sustainable development.

1. Introduction

In the face of escalating environmental degradation and energy crises, the development of a green economy has emerged as a global imperative. ASEAN, a region renowned for its dynamic economic growth, contributes approximately 7% to global carbon emissions [1]. A recent International Energy Agency (IEA) report projects that ASEAN’s share of global energy demand growth will reach up to 25% by 2035 [2], highlighting the region’s growing focus on strengthening energy security, mitigating carbon emissions, and achieving sustainable development. In 2016, ASEAN countries launched the APAEC (2016–2025) to accelerate regional energy transition and achieve carbon neutrality. To meet this goal, promoting new energy vehicles (NEVs) and greening the transport sector have become key priorities in countries’ carbon-neutral strategies. The ASEAN region has emerged as a significant global NEV market due to its large population, stable economic growth, and abundant resources. From 2014 to 2024, the NEV penetration rate in ASEAN countries surged from 0.16% to 10.64% [3], signaling a robust increase in regional consumer demand for NEVs and highlighting the substantial future potential of ASEAN’s NEV market. A thorough analysis of the new energy automobile industry’s evolution in ASEAN countries, particularly within the context of ASEAN’s new energy policies and related factors, is crucial. This analysis is essential for promoting the green development of ASEAN’s automobile industry, accelerating regional low-carbon energy transition, and ultimately achieving sustainable development in both regional economic growth and environmental protection.

Currently, academic research primarily focuses on the NEV industry in developed regions of Europe, the United States, and East Asia, with relatively limited attention given to the ASEAN emerging market. Existing studies in ASEAN countries mainly concentrate on the current development status of the NEV industry [4], development challenges [5], and single-country policy assessments [6]. Additionally, some scholars have conducted qualitative analyses of the consumer factors influencing NEV purchases [7]. Closely related to the research of our article is the study of policy measures and paths for the development of the NEV industry in ASEAN countries. Huang et al. [5] assessed e-mobility policies in 10 ASEAN countries using the STEELUP framework, identifying Thailand (45 points), Singapore (44 points), and Vietnam (42 points) as leaders, and Brunei (18 points) and Cambodia (17 points) as laggards. Regional policies focus on industrial promotion, with insufficient incentives for personal electric vehicles. Wu et al. [8] state that the approach to developing the NEV industry in ASEAN focuses on the core battery industry by offering preferential policies to attract capital and advanced production factors from abroad. This enables rapid establishment of the NEV industry but increases dependency on foreign investment. Wad [9] contrasts Malaysia’s protectionist national policy with Thailand’s foreign investment strategy, noting Malaysia’s export challenges and Thailand’s production success but limited indigenous technological capability compared to South Korea and China [10]. Kuroiwa et al. [11] emphasize the Thai government’s role in developing the domestic market and infrastructure through policy support, focusing on key automotive products and strengthening supplier localization that enhances the industry.

It can be seen that with the gradual development of the NEV market in ASEAN, the region has become increasingly rich in relevant research. However, there is a notable gap in research examining NEV industry development from a regional policy synergy perspective. The APAEC, as a significant regional energy policy, has yet to be researched by scholars regarding its impact on the NEV industry through policy synergy measures, such as harmonizing technical standards, coordinating financial incentives, and planning for energy transition. Therefore, our research examines how the energy structure can be improved and how the NEV industry can evolve in the context of the ASEAN new energy policy. Additionally, it analyzes the factors influencing NEV industry development and conducts an empirical study based on data from six ASEAN countries between 2013 and 2024. The study demonstrates that since the introduction of the APAEC (2016–2025) in 2016, ASEAN countries have reached consensus on harmonizing technical standards, coordinating financial incentives, and collaboratively planning the energy transition. These regional policy measures have significantly accelerated the development of ASEAN’s NEV industry. Key determinants identified for the advancement of the NEV sector include the quality of national governance, financial sector development, educational standards, and the scale of the automotive market. Conversely, excessive energy consumption is expected to hinder sectoral growth. The research further indicates that the APAEC (2016–2025) exerts a greater positive influence on NEV industry development in countries with a more robust automotive sector or explicit policy focus in this area, such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

The present study utilizes the APAEC policy as its core entry point, employing an analytical framework integrating policy synergy variables to systematically examine the role of the APAEC policy in the development of the ASEAN NEV industry. This study addresses a research gap concerning ASEAN’s new energy automobile industry from the perspective of regional policy synergism, thereby offering novel insights into the application of research perspectives and methods. The study provides useful lessons and references for ASEAN countries to improve regional energy development policies, synergistically promote the development of the NEV industry, and realize regional low-carbon energy transition and sustainable economic development.

2. ASEAN New Energy Policy and NEV Development Status

2.1. Energy Mix: Traditional Energy Dominance and Renewable Energy Development in Parallel

The prevailing energy supply structure in ASEAN is characterized by a preponderance of conventional energy sources, with a concomitant gradual increase in the share of renewable energy generation in total power generation. From 2000 to 2022, the installed capacity of traditional energy sources in ASEAN still accounted for the majority of power generation, with the proportion decreasing from 80% to 70.8% (see Figure 1). This indicates that ASEAN countries are limited by the needs of economic development and have a high degree of dependence on traditional energy sources. It is, therefore, reasonable to conclude that it will still take a long time before they start to change the energy structure dominated by traditional energy sources [12]. Projections indicate that the world’s proven oil reserves are likely to be depleted by the year 2052, if current consumption patterns persist [13,14]. This scenario underscores the pressing need for urgent action to address the escalating energy demands of human society. According to IRENA, the cost of electricity for the majority of renewable energy projects experienced a decline in 2023. Solar photovoltaic power generation exhibited a 12% decrease, onshore wind power demonstrated a 3% decline, offshore wind power and hydropower both experienced a 7% reduction, and concentrated solar thermal power generation showed a 4% decrease [15]. For the ASEAN countries that are experiencing a surge in electricity demand and an urgent need for new generating capacity, renewable energy power generation has emerged as the preferred low-cost power generation method. It is imperative to promote the transformation of the energy supply structure. The proportion of renewable energy in total electricity generation within the ASEAN region has been progressively rising from 19% in 2000 to 29.2% in 2022. In 2022, ASEAN’s total electricity generation attained 1263 TWh, with a renewable energy contribution of approximately 29.2%, comprised of hydroelectricity at 19.5%, biomass at 3.2%, photovoltaic at 3.1%, geothermal at 2.1%, and wind energy at 1.1% (see Figure 1). While ASEAN countries have made efforts to optimize their energy supply structure, the potential for transformation remains largely untapped. The future of renewable energy in the ASEAN region offers significant development opportunities and market prospects.

The structure of energy demand in the ASEAN is characterized by high aggregate demand and high levels of energy consumption. Energy use in ASEAN countries grew from 12,828.47 kg oil equivalent to 13,223.57 kg oil equivalent between 2018 and 2023, representing a net increase of 395.10 kg oil equivalent (see

Table 1. Energy use in ASEAN countries, 2018–2023 (in kg oil equivalent).

	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
Indonesia	813.44	850.27	810.00	824.62	935.77	828.86
Malaysia	2839.45	2878.30	2722.60	2793.50	2867.10	2786.45
Philippines	554.50	551.87	518.16	530.99	550.79	541.80
Singapore	5798.26	6067.60	6033.41	6495.85	6630.39	6223.16
Thailand	1937.18	1976.43	1872.52	1833.86	1857.31	1908.82
Vietnam	885.65	987.27	991.28	962.20	1023.06	934.49
Total	12,828.47	13,311.74	12,947.98	13,441.02	13,864.42	13,223.57

Source: World Bank.

). Singapore and Malaysia, as the more developed economies, are well ahead in terms of energy use, well above the regional average. While countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines have a low base of energy use, they have large populations and strong growth rates in energy use. With regard to consumption sectors, industry, transport, residential, commercial, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are the top seven, with the industry and transport sectors having the highest energy demand [16]. The total energy consumption in the industry, transport, and construction sectors is 21 EJ, and it is expected to continue to grow at nearly 3% per year until 2035. In the transport sector, the consumption of transport fuel in the ASEAN region is predominantly accounted for by oil, constituting more than 90% of the total consumption. This figure stands at an impressive 2.8 mbpd, which is comparable to the total oil consumption for transport in the Middle East, estimated at 2.9 mbpd [2]. The promotion of NEVs is imperative for the successful transition of the transport sector in ASEAN countries to a low-carbon energy future. ASEAN has been identified as one of the fastest-growing regions in the world, with population growth, accelerated urbanization, and industrialization serving as the primary drivers of its sustained energy demand. The energy consumption pattern exhibited by the ASEAN is characterized by a substantially high-carbon path dependency, while the financial burden associated with the development of renewable energy sources is progressively diminishing. Recent analyses indicate that the levelized cost of energy of solar energy in the ASEAN has decreased to 38–46 USD/MWh, which is lower than that of coal (60 USD/MWh). This suggests that the conditions for large-scale promotion are in place [17]. The development of new energy sources will be an obvious choice for ASEAN if it is to have sustainable access to green and low-cost energy supplies.

2.2. The Two-Tiered Architecture of ASEAN New Energy Policy: Regional Leadership and National Practices

Energy policy constitutes a pivotal instrument in addressing energy demand, ensuring regional energy security, and maintaining sustainable economic development. At the regional level, ASEAN’s new energy development policy has been gradually taking shape since 1998 and has been promoted mainly through the APAEC. In the APAEC (2016–2025), the ASEAN has outlined its strategy to achieve a target of 23% of total primary energy supply (TPES) from renewable energy sources and 35% of total installed renewable energy capacity by 2025. The plan is divided into two phases, with the first phase (2016–2020) focusing on enhancing energy connectivity and market integration to ensure energy security, accessibility, affordability, and sustainability. Conversely, the second phase (2021–2025) places a greater emphasis on energy transition and enhancing energy resilience. This is to be achieved through innovation and cooperation to accelerate the energy transition [16]. The proposal further outlines six strategic initiatives, including the advancement of decarbonization pathways, the promotion of high-level policy dialogues, the enhancement of research and development (R&D) networks, the endorsement of renewable energy financing, the support for the sustainable development of biofuels, and the establishment and improvement of the Renewable Energy Information and Training Centre. The second phase of ASEAN’s six-strategy plan is now yielding results, with 35% of ASEAN’s installed renewable energy capacity in 2021, which is already above the target. However, as of 2022, the share of renewable energy in the region’s TPES was only 15.6% [18], which falls short of the intended target of 23% by 2025. The target for installed renewable energy capacity set by ASEAN has been surpassed. The process of optimizing the energy structure is yet to be realized. There is considerable scope for enhancement in the regional energy transition.

The acceleration of the electrification of passenger vehicles has emerged as a pivotal strategy for ASEAN countries, underpinned by the Paris Agreement and the APAEC. After the 42nd ASEAN Summit in May 2023, the member states of the ASEAN voted to adopt the ASEAN Leaders’ Declaration on the Development of a Regional Electric Vehicle Ecosystem. The declaration calls upon member states to establish regional standards, promote investment and R&D cooperation, and facilitate cooperation with external partners to jointly accelerate the development of an electric vehicle ecosystem in Southeast Asia. This is the inaugural instance in which ASEAN has proposed the collaborative development of NEVs. The objective of this initiative is to leverage the region’s strategic positioning and abundant resources to enhance the infrastructure for supply chain investment. The primary ambition is to transform the ASEAN region into a prominent global production hub for electric vehicles and a pivotal element in the supply chain for NEVs. Through this, ASEAN countries have established ambitious industry development goals, primarily in the form of novel vehicle electrification targets, to achieve a specified percentage of electric vehicle production and sales in the forthcoming years (see

Table 2. NEV industry development targets in ASEAN countries (selected).

National	Policy Objectives
Thailand	Achieve 50% of total domestic vehicle production of electric vehicles by 2030 and 100% by 2035. Push to complete the target number of 1.2 million electric vehicles and 690 charging stations in 2036.
Indonesia	Eighty percent localization of pure electric vehicles by 2030, production of 600,000 and one million electric vehicles by 2030 and 2035, respectively, and 1000 charging stations and 400,000 electric vehicles by 2025, 20% of which will be produced locally.
Malaysia	Electrified models (including hybrids) are planned to account for 15% of vehicle sales by 2030. The share of purely electric vehicles in car sales will increase to 38% by 2040. Construction of 125,000 charging stations and plans to roll out 2000 electric buses in the transport sector.
Philippines	A comprehensive roadmap for the electric vehicle industry will be developed in 2023, with a plan to virtually eliminate the sale of fuel vehicles in the Philippines by 2040.
Vietnam	By 2035, all newly registered automotive businesses must be clean-fuel vehicles. From 2040 onward, a ban is to be placed on the import and production of fuel vehicles. Net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in transport by 2050, with 100% of road transport using electricity and green energy.
Singapore	Ban new diesel vehicle/taxi registrations from 2025. All new registrations must be EVs, plug-in hybrids, or fuel cell EVs from 2030; phase out all fuel vehicles by 2040. Reach 60,000 charging stations by 2030 (40,000 public, 20,000 private), averaging 5 vehicles per station.

Source: official websites of national government departments, Marklines, IEA. https://www.iea.org/reports/an-energy-sector-roadmap-to-net-zero-emissions-in-indonesia (accessed on 1 July 2025).

). For instance, Thailand has set itself the target of achieving 50% local production of electric vehicles by 2030, rising to 100% by 2035. Indonesia’s EV Acceleration Plan (2020–2030) aims to have all new vehicles fully electric by 2035. Meanwhile, Malaysia’s National Energy Transformation Roadmap 2023 establishes a target of 80% EV penetration by 2050, with 90% of EVs to be locally manufactured. The Philippines’ industrial development goal is to stop selling fuel vehicles by 2040, with 50% of vehicles being NEVs by 2050, and so on. The electrification transition of the ASEAN automotive market is supported by these cooperation initiatives and policy objectives.

To promote the development of the NEV industry, ASEAN countries usually formulate “two-way” policies, i.e., from the production side and the consumption side, with a view to promoting the overall development of the industry. Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore have formulated and implemented a series of policies to support the development of the NEV industry, including tax exemption, purchase subsidies, and improved charging facilities, and Vietnam, the Philippines, and other countries are also actively following (see

Table 3. NEV industry development policies in ASEAN countries (selected).

National	Summary of Policies
Thailand	Car Purchase Subsidy	Subsidies for EVs based on battery capacity: 10.30 kWh battery: 70,000 THB/unit >30 kWh battery (CKD/CBU *): 150,000 THB/unit CKD pickups (>30 kWh): 150,000 THB/unit
	Tax Incentives	Reduced import tariffs: up to 40% discount (retail ≤ THB 2 million) 20% discount (battery capacity > 30 kWh, THB 2–7 million) Reduction of excise tax: reduced from 8% to 2% Reduction of road tax: 80% reduction within one year (registered 1 October 2022–30 September 2025)
Indonesia	Car Purchase Subsidy	Pure EVs: up to IDR 80 million Hybrids: up to IDR 40 million (≥40% local sourcing)
	Tax Incentives	Corporate tax: 50% reduction for 5 years (investment > IDR 100 billion) 100% exemption (investment > IDR 500 billion, longer period for larger investment) VAT: 1% (≥40% local sourcing) 6% (20–40% local sourcing)
Malaysia	Tax Incentives	CBU EVs: import duty and excise tax exemption (until end-2025) CKD EVs: excise tax and sales tax exemption (until end-2027) Charging pile makers: exemption from statutory income tax and 100% investment tax credit (2023–2032, 5 years)
Philippines	Tax Incentives	Reduction of import tariff rates (five-year period from January 2023): 0% tariff for complete vehicles parts tariff reduced from 5% to 1%
Vietnam	Car Purchase Subsidy	Cash subsidy: USD 1000 per EV Registration fee: 100% exemption (March 2022–March 2027) 50% of standard rate (March 2027–March 2032)
	Tax Incentives	EV/battery production: import tariff reduction for equipment enjoy special investment incentives Charging stations: low electricity tariffs exempt import duties on equipment and accessories first 5 years exemption from corporate income tax/land tax next 5 years reduced taxes
Singapore	Car Purchase Subsidy	Purchase of electric vehicles: 45% refund of the additional registration fee. Purchase of low-emission vehicles under the Passenger Vehicle Emission Scheme: increased refund (up to SGD 25,000).

* CKD: fully assembled in bulk; CBU: fully assembled. Source: official websites of national government departments, Marklines. https://www.marklines.com/cn/report/rep2833_202504 (accessed on 1 July 2025).

). The government’s proactive policy support, coupled with the substantial growth in investment in the electric vehicle manufacturing sector, is projected to drive a substantial increase in sales of NEVs in major ASEAN countries. Specifically, it is estimated that sales will escalate from 59,659 units in 2022 to 349,651 units in 2024, marking an average annual growth rate of 80.3%. This dynamic growth figure underscores the vibrant vitality and extensive growth prospects of the electric vehicle market in the ASEAN region.

2.3. Development Potential: Uneven Regional Industrial Development

Presently, the NEV industry in the ASEAN region is still in the primary stage of development, and the level of development varies among different countries. From the perspective of improving industrial policies, countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia have adopted the development of NEVs as a key component of their national policy systems. In contrast, countries such as Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia have yet to establish clear guidelines for their respective governments on the formulation and introduction of specific policies for the NEV industry [19]. From a sales perspective, Thailand is projected to sell 129,770 NEVs in 2024, achieving a penetration rate of 20.48%. In contrast, the Philippines is estimated to sell only 2870 NEVs in 2024, resulting in a penetration rate of 0.61% (see Figure 2). Furthermore, the developmental trajectory of the NEV industry exhibits significant variations among different nations. For instance, Thailand boasts a well-developed automotive supply chain base and significant industrial policy advantages and is a manufacturing hub for electric vehicles in the ASEAN region [8]. Conversely, Malaysia has expedited its development through policy innovation and international collaboration, successfully attracting prominent automotive companies, such as Tesla, to the region. Indonesia, with its abundance of nickel and other raw materials, possesses distinct development potential. However, the scarcity of public charging stations, the high cost of vehicles, the inadequacy of infrastructure, and the monopolization of the automotive sector by traditional companies have emerged as the primary impediments to the advancement of the NEV industry. Singapore, conversely, has established itself as a technology and demonstration center, with a focus on R&D in NEVs. The country has also encouraged multinational corporations to establish R&D bases and has facilitated investment in start-up projects [20].

The uneven development of the NEV industry in the ASEAN region is both a limitation and an opportunity to strengthen regional cooperation in this field. For countries with a low level of industrial development, it is extremely difficult to break through the bottleneck of industrial development solely on their own. For countries with a relatively better level of industrial development, it is also necessary for them to achieve further upgrading of their industries through industrial cooperation. It is submitted that the enhancement of regional economic integration cooperation is a strategy through which ASEAN countries can optimize the utilization of their respective comparative advantages, thereby facilitating the establishment of an NEV industry chain characterized by complementarity.

3. Analysis of Factors Affecting the Development of the NEV Industry in the Context of Allied New Energy Policies

3.1. New Energy Policy

The active development of a nascent energy policy by ASEAN is a key initiative to not only address climate change but also improve the competitiveness of the NEV industry. In the APAEC (2016–2025) period, the ASEAN region established an overarching regional target of 23% renewable energy in the primary energy mix by 2025. Following this target, member states have established national targets, with the development targets of Laos (59%), the Philippines (41%), Indonesia (26%), Cambodia (35%), Myanmar (29%), and Thailand (24%) all exceeding the aforementioned ASEAN target [16]. At present, ASEAN member states have formulated new energy incentive policies based on their own national conditions, including feed-in tariffs, preferential loans, capital subsidies, and tax incentives. The significance of this policy model, which combines top–down regional synergy with bottom–up national refinement, extends beyond merely increasing the share of clean energy. It also establishes a conducive fundamental environment for the development of the NEV industry. First, the special policies for NEVs in various countries, such as car purchase subsidies and purchase tax exemptions, effectively reduce consumers’ car-purchase costs, making NEV prices more affordable and directly enhancing NEV market competitiveness [21]. Second, the provision of a large-scale renewable energy power supply has been demonstrated to directly reduce the cost of NEVs, thereby significantly enhancing their environmental and economic benefits in comparison to traditional fuel vehicles. Finally, the presence of clear and stable policy signals and support measures has been shown to effectively reduce the uncertainty of investors and consumers regarding the long-term development of the industry’s expectations, thereby boosting market confidence. The current new energy policy framework of the ASEAN is founded on two key pillars that are designed to foster the development of the NEV industry. These pillars include the establishment of a clean and low-carbon energy base and the creation of a favorable industrial development environment. The transformation of the energy structure and industrial policy has acted as a synergistic force for ASEAN, thereby establishing a solid foundation for the development of the region’s NEV industry and enhancing its competitiveness.

3.2. Level of National Governance

The effectiveness of policy implementation is contingent upon the level of national governance, which, in turn, plays a value-oriented role in the development process of the new energy automobile industry. The efficacy with which policy implementation impacts the development of the NEV industry is a pivotal consideration. The impact of policy implementation is evident in the government’s capacity to standardize, streamline approval processes, and foster infrastructure synergy. These factors collectively influence the transition of the new energy automobile industry from a policy-driven to a market-driven model, thereby catalyzing its advancement. The inadequate implementation of policy, or overly complicated implementation processes, will significantly erode market confidence and industry momentum. Despite the evident potential exhibited by the Philippines and Vietnam in terms of the development of the NEV industry, the absence of financial strength and policy coordination has been identified as a key impediment to the effective support of such development, thereby directly undermining market confidence [8]. To attract foreign-funded automobile enterprises, the Indonesian government has implemented a series of policy measures. However, the mandatory requirement of local production of 60% of foreign-funded parts and components, in conjunction with an excessive reliance on administrative approval, has resulted in protracted project development cycles. Conversely, Thailand has demonstrated a remarkable capacity to enhance the efficacy of policy implementation. The Board of Investment Promotion of Thailand has established a precise mechanism that links subsidies and battery capacity. This mechanism stipulates that only models with a battery capacity exceeding 50 kWh can benefit from the most substantial subsidies, thereby effectively guiding technological upgrades. This policy has also attracted Chinese automakers, such as BYD and Great Wall Motor, to establish production bases in Thailand. As reported by Sina Finance, the annual production capacity of BYD’s factory is 150,000 vehicles, and the company has plans to attract more than 50 supporting enterprises to establish a presence in Thailand. The utilization of local parts and components is expected to exceed 40%, thereby significantly driving the development of the local supply chain [22]. The effectiveness of the policy is reflected in Thailand’s electric vehicle sales surging by 684.4% year-on-year in 2023, with a market penetration rate of 12.63% [3], thus establishing Thailand as the largest NEV market in ASEAN. Conversely, the enhancement of national governance has been demonstrated to exert a propelling influence on the evolution of the NEV industry. This is achieved by means of the guidance of social conceptual change and the enhancement of environmental awareness among residents. A range of national governance initiatives aimed at developing a green economy and promoting low-carbon living have contributed to the formation of a green consumption preference among consumers, thereby increasing the demand for NEVs. The process of institutionalization of environmental protection concepts has resulted in the elevation of NEVs from a mere transportation alternative to a pivotal vehicle in the construction of an ecological civilization.

3.3. Energy Structure

From the perspective of energy supply, the national energy supply structure is associated with the effectiveness of emission reduction in the NEV industry, which exerts a significant influence on the promotion effect of NEVs. Government subsidies in ASEAN countries have been found to promote the use of NEVs but also to indirectly increase the demand for electricity. Even though NEVs powered by electricity generate zero emissions during operation, it should be noted that carbon emissions are also produced in the process of electricity generation, which is required for the conversion of other energy sources. In the event of electricity being derived from traditional fossil fuels, such as coal, for power generation, the life-cycle of carbon emissions of electric vehicles may be higher than those of fuel vehicles [23]. In 2023, the ASEAN countries had a total installed renewable energy capacity of 106,575 MW [24]. This is indicative of the region’s commitment to optimizing its energy mix. The transition to a cleaner electricity mix is poised to resolve the ongoing debate surrounding the “cleanliness of electricity sources” for NEVs, thereby facilitating the automotive industry’s transition toward “carbon neutrality”. The transformation of the energy supply side will extend the environmental benefits of NEVs from the use phase to the entire life-cycle through the closed loop of “clean power production, green power storage, and low-carbon transport consumption”. Concurrently, as public awareness of environmental protection increases gradually, consumers in regions with a high proportion of renewable energy power generation will recognize NEVs as “truly environmentally friendly,” and their willingness to purchase them will increase. Consequently, the optimization of the power structure is expected to promote the development of the NEV industry by facilitating the full cycle of NEV emission reduction and enhancing consumers’ awareness of environmental protection.

From an energy demand perspective, elevated levels of energy consumption will engender a phenomenon known as a “carbon lock-in effect”. This will impede the growth of the NEV industry. High energy consumption is typically associated with a high-carbon energy structure and a consumption pattern that is less than ideal. This has the effect of hindering the penetration of NEVs through three distinct avenues. The initial effect pertains to the distortion of energy prices. In economic systems where fossil fuel subsidies are pervasive, the full life-cycle cost advantage of NEVs is diminished. For instance, the Malaysian transport sector actively promotes the utilization of biofuels; however, the subsidy policy for gasoline and diesel has a detrimental effect on the development of the NEV industry. Second, the issue of infrastructure crowding-out effects must be addressed. The spatial requirements of energy-intensive industries, which occupy a significant proportion of the grid capacity, constrain the feasibility of constructing charging facilities, thereby leading to a paucity of public charging infrastructure. This, in turn, poses a significant challenge to the effective dissemination of NEVs [25]. Third, it is important to note that crude energy use is accompanied by fuel vehicle use dependence. High-energy-consuming economies are typified by low-density urban sprawl development patterns, which force residents to commute long distances. This spatial structure also means that consumers are more inclined to use fuel vehicles than NEVs, a phenomenon that has been termed “mileage anxiety” [26].

The optimization of the energy mix is pivotal in achieving comprehensive life-cycle emission reductions and fostering consumer acceptance of NEVs. However, high energy consumption hinders their dissemination due to price distortion, inadequate infrastructure, and the prevalence of low-density urban structures. Consequently, the optimization of the electric energy structure and energy consumption structure is a pivotal strategy for fostering the sustainable development of the NEV industry.

3.4. Level of Financial Development

The development of the new energy automobile industry is characterized by its capital and technology intensiveness, necessitating substantial long-term investment. Financial support has emerged as an increasingly pivotal mechanism for promoting this industry. On the supply side, the financial market is guided by green financial policies, which optimize the allocation of credit funds, thereby ensuring that more funds flow to green and energy-saving industries, such as NEVs. This results in a gradual reduction in the financing cost of the NEV industry, an easing of financing constraints, and an improvement in production efficiency [27]. Moreover, the development of NEVs necessitates substantial financial resources to underpin R&D, innovation, and technological enhancement. The enhancement of financial development provides a more dependable financial guarantee for enterprises to undertake green technological innovation, thereby effectively mitigating the risk of enterprises in technological innovation and enhancing their propensity to engage in green innovation and transformation [28]. From a demand-side perspective, the continuous innovation of consumer financial instruments has enhanced consumers’ capacity to make payments, thereby contributing to the advancement of the NEV industry. By the life-cycle hypothesis, it is predicted that consumers will allocate their resources in a manner that optimizes utility as they progress through the various stages of the life-cycle. In the context of the conventional financial system, low-income groups encounter significant challenges in achieving resource allocation across the life-cycle through formal channels, primarily due to the absence of collateral and credit history. The financial products designed specifically for the automotive industry, including the “zero down payment” option, can transform a single car purchase into a consumption model that spans the entire life-cycle. This transformation is achieved by the integration of consumption scenarios within the financial product, thereby empowering consumers to discount future income cash flows to finance current consumption. This can be considered an early manifestation of future income through the mechanism of credit intermediation, which aligns with the rational consumer decision-making process, as outlined in the life-cycle hypothesis of smooth inter-period consumption. The utilization of automotive financial instruments has been identified as a pivotal factor in the enhancement of the consumption structure, thereby fostering the development of new demand segments for NEVs.

The enhancement of financial development has been demonstrated to have a substantial impact on the dynamism of the NEV market, with this impact being exerted through two distinct channels: the optimization of capital allocation and the activation of consumer demand. The promotion of the development of the NEV industry is a key consequence of this enhancement.

3.5. Level of Education

The impact of education on the NEV industry is reflected in two main ways. First, it enhances citizens’ environmental protection concepts. Second, it provides professional talent support. It has been demonstrated that consumers with a higher level of education exhibit a stronger sense of self-identity and social responsibility, and as such, they demonstrate a greater propensity to consider the extent to which their consumption behavior is conducive to ecological protection. Furthermore, they demonstrate a greater propensity to align their consumption behavior with the concept of green consumption and to engage in more in-depth cognition when purchasing a car [29]. In addition to this, they are more willing to pay a premium for environmental attributes and will have a stronger preference for buying NEVs [30]. Concurrently, nations with a more advanced educational infrastructure frequently possess a more comprehensive talent development apparatus, which is capable of consistently generating professionals of the highest caliber for the NEV industry. These competencies are not only drawn from the domains of automotive engineering, electronic information technology, and materials science, but they also extend to marketing, strategic management, and policy research, which serve as pivotal support for the advancement of the industry. In the domain of technological R&D, individuals with advanced educational qualifications have the potential to expedite the advancement of critical technologies in the field of NEVs. This is attributable to their professional expertise and innovative capacity, which enable them to directly enhance the performance and reduce the cost of NEVs. In terms of marketing and consumer guidance, marketing and management talents with a good educational background can accurately capture consumer demand and launch corresponding marketing programs to enhance public awareness and acceptance of NEVs. Furthermore, nations with advanced higher education systems tend to exhibit more open and inclusive academic environments. Through international exchanges and cooperation, the new energy automobile industry in ASEAN countries is well-positioned to promptly assimilate global advancements in scientific research and cutting-edge technology, thereby expediting its transformation and upgrading.

In conclusion, the influence of education on the new energy automobile industry is comprehensive and extensive. This phenomenon is not merely a matter of consumer awareness; it also provides substantial talent support for the sustainable development of the industry. Consequently, it is imperative to foster the advancement of the new energy automobile industry through the enhancement of national education standards and the cultivation of talent in related domains.

3.6. Size of the Automotive Market

The size of the automotive market exerts a direct and significant influence on the NEV industry. First, the substantial motor vehicle stock signifies a high potential for replacement. When consumers are presented with choices during the vehicle replacement cycle, NEVs can expedite the transition from oil vehicles to electric vehicles by their price competitiveness under the purchase subsidy, the significantly lower cost of use, and the comparative advantage of the intelligent driving experience [31]. Second, the size of the motor vehicle stock reflects the maturity of a country’s automotive industry base. It is evident that countries with high stock typically possess a well-developed supply chain system and a reserve of skilled industrial workers. This provides a solid foundation for the production and manufacturing of NEVs. For instance, the experience accumulated by traditional automakers in factors such as body structure, chassis design, quality, and safety control helps them develop NEV businesses, and they can quickly switch to the production of core components, such as motors and electronic control, through production line modification, which reduces the cost of investing in new capacity [32]. The training of skilled workers by traditional automakers has been shown to facilitate the transition to the production of NEVs following a relatively brief period of skills development, thereby mitigating the shortage of skilled personnel. Finally, the size of the automotive market also catalyzes infrastructure upgrades to facilitate the growth of the NEV industry. The issue of high-density fuel vehicle regional pollution has become a matter of increasing concern, prompting the government to expedite the development of a charging network and charging piles. This initiative is intended to address the issue of “mileage anxiety,” thereby fostering greater consumer confidence and encouraging the adoption of NEVs. The government’s strategy is designed to create a cycle of replacement demand, infrastructure enhancement, and market expansion. The positive cycle of infrastructure improvement and market expansion is a phenomenon that has been observed in various contexts.

The establishment of a robust foundation for the development of the NEV industry has been facilitated by the automotive market’s release of alternative demand, its integration of industrial resources, and its catalyzation of infrastructure upgrades.

3.7. Situation of the Electricity Infrastructure

The extent to which infrastructure is adequate is a pivotal factor in the popularization of NEVs. The technical advancement and spatial adaptability of the grid infrastructure act as the underlying support system, determining the expansion boundary of the energy supply network for NEVs. First, at the physical access level, the expansion capacity and distributed layout of the power grid provide the necessary conditions for the construction of charging piles. The regional power grid, with its high load-carrying capacity, has the potential to overcome the bottleneck in power supply through technical means, such as increasing transformer capacity and line transformation. This, in turn, would allow the deployment density of charging piles in the unit area to exceed the limitations of the traditional distribution network. Next, the smart grid planning model, constructed through Geographic Information System spatial analysis, facilitates the precise integration of charging pile siting with urban functional areas and traffic networks. To illustrate, high-power fast-charging piles can be configured in commercial agglomeration areas, while slow-charging piles are delineated in residential areas, thereby establishing a gradient energy supply system [33]. This spatial adaptability optimizes the efficiency of land resource utilization and improves consumer convenience by reducing the charging radius. Finally, the enhancement of grid infrastructure has been demonstrated to engender substantial network externalities. The enhancement of the national grid infrastructure and the gradual increase in the coverage of charging piles have been shown to engender an increase in consumers’ psychological expectation of the convenience of charging, which, in turn, increases the purchase rate of NEVs [34].

The enhancement of grid infrastructure facilitates the establishment of charging piles while concurrently optimizing the energy supply ecology of NEVs through technological integration and institutional innovation. This development is a necessary driving force for the advancement of the NEV industry.

4. Empirical Analysis of NEV Industry Development in the Context of ASEAN New Energy Policies

4.1. Data and Samples

In this study, the relevant data from six countries, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam, were selected as the research samples from 2013 to 2024, and the samples with missing data on NEV sales were excluded. The car sales data utilized in this study were drawn from the Global Automotive Industry Platform (Marklines), with the remainder of the data sourced from the World Bank and ASEAStats databases.

4.2. Variables

4.2.1. Dependent Variable: NEV Industry Development Level (Penetration)

NEV industry development level: The present study employed the penetration rate of NEVs as a metric to assess the developmental level of the NEV industry. An increase in the penetration rate of NEVs was directly proportional to an increase in sales volume, market share, and the development of the NEV industry.

4.2.2. Independent Variable

• New energy policy: Considering the fact that the energy transition of ASEAN countries has entered a new stage following the entry into force of the APAEC (2016–2025), this research established the time dummy variable Post, with Post = 0 before 2016 and Post = 1 in 2016 and beyond, and considered 2016 as the cut-off point of regional energy policy synergy to test the impact of the program on the new energy automobile industry development.
• Energy structure: this study measured a country’s energy structure from the supply-side and demand-side perspectives using the proportion of renewable energy generation and energy use, respectively.
• National level of governance: In this study, the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGIs) were utilized to assess the governance level of a nation, as outlined in the research conducted by Shahbaz et al. [35]. The WGI is a comprehensive database developed by the World Bank that systematically measures the level of governance and the market environment in countries across the globe through six dimensions (see

  Table 4. The six broad dimensions of WGI.

  The Primary Indexes	The Definition of Sub-Indexes
  Voice and Accountability	Reflects perceptions of the extent to which a country’s citizens are able to participate in selecting their government, as well as freedom of expression, freedom of association, and a free media.
  Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism	Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism measures perceptions of the likelihood of political instability and/or politically motivated violence, including terrorism.
  Government Effectiveness	Reflects perceptions of the quality of public services, the quality of the civil service and the degree of its independence from political pressures, the quality of policy formulation and implementation, and the credibility of the government’s commitment to such policies.
  Regulatory Quality	Reflects perceptions of the ability of the government to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private sector development.
  Rule of Law	Reflects perceptions of the extent to which agents have confidence in and abide by the rules of society, and in particular the quality of contract enforcement, property rights, the police, and the courts, as well as the likelihood of crime and violence.
  Control of Corruption	Reflects perceptions of the extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including both petty and grand forms of corruption, as well as “capture” of the state by elites and private interests.

  ): Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, Control of Corruption. The six comprehensive governance indicators are based on hundreds of independent underlying variables obtained from dozens of different data sources, reflecting the perceptions of thousands of survey respondents and experts in the public, private, and NGO sectors around the globe. An increase in the value of the indicator is indicative of an enhancement in the level of governance within the nation. The values of the WGIs are calculated in three steps: (1) Matching of the six indicators that measure the level of governance with the indicators of a variety of other independent data sources is accomplished to fully absorb the information from various data sources; (2) organize and standardize the source data of each key item, so that the range of values is kept between 0 and 1; (3) adjust the source data by using the Unobserved Components Model (UCM), to ensure that the composite indexes of each key item of governance take a value between −2.5 and 2.5, and that they are comparable. The closer the value is to 2.5, the higher the quality of the governance element is, and conversely, the lower the quality of the element is. WGI relies on cross-country governance indicators to measure the quality level of the comprehensive governance of the national government, and it is considered one of the most rigorous and influential composite indicator systems in many quantitative studies of governance, and has become an important reference for measuring a country’s governance level for many countries and international organizations.
• Level of financial development: As posited by Dabla et al. [36], this research employed the ratio of total bank credit to the private sector to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the year in question as a metric to ascertain the level of financial development. The magnitude of the indicator is directly proportional to the financial development of the nation.
• Level of education: As posited by Zhao et al. [37], the present study employed the ratio of total public expenditure on education to GDP as a metric to gauge the level of education in each nation. It is evident that as the value increases, so too does the level of education in the country.
• Size of the automotive market: The study utilized the number of registered passenger cars as a metric to ascertain the magnitude of a nation’s automobile market. An increase in the value is indicative of a greater number of passenger cars in the country and an expansion in the size of the automotive market.
• Electricity infrastructure situation: As posited by Jiang et al. [38], this research employed the electricity access rate as a metric to assess the infrastructure landscape of a nation’s NEV industry. It can thus be concluded that an increase in the value of the indicator is indicative of an improvement in the infrastructure of the country’s NEV industry.

4.2.3. Control Variables

In this paper, consumer price index (CPI), foreign direct investment (FDI) level, and population density (Population) were used as control variables (see

Table 5. Variable definitions and descriptions.

Variable	Variable Name	Variable Symbol	Variable Definition
Dependent Variable	Degree of Development of the NEV Industry	Penetration	NEV Sales/Total Vehicle Sales
Independent Variable	New energy policies	Post	APAEC (2016–2025) implementation, Post = 0 until 2016, Post = 1 in 2016 and afterward
	Level of national governance	WGI	World Bank WGI index
	Energy structure	Renewable	Proportion of electricity generated from renewable sources
		Usage	Energy use
	Level of financial development	Finance	Private sector credit/GDP
	Level of education	Education	Total public expenditure on education/GDP
	Size of the automobile market	Car	Number of registered passenger cars
	Infrastructure situation	Electricity	Electrification rate
Control Variables	Level of consumption	CPI	CPI
	Foreign direct investment	FDI	FDI
	Population density	Population	Population density

).

4.3. Model

To determine the panel data regression model, this paper conducts an F-test and LM-test for specific model selection, and the results are shown in

Table 6. Model test results.

Type of Test	Statistic	Prob Value	Null Hypothesis (H0)	Conclusion
F-test	F (11, 37) = 2.11	Prob > F = 0.5895	All individual and time fixed effects are zero.	The null hypothesis that no significant fixed effects exist is accepted, and the pooled model is adopted.
LM-test	chibar2 (01) = 0.00	Prob > chibar2 = 1.0000	The variance of the random effects is zero.	The null hypothesis of no significant random effects is accepted, and the pooled model is used.

.

According to F-test and LM-test results, both results support the use of the pooled model while rejecting the use of the fixed effects model and random effects model. Therefore, we use the pooled model to assess the influencing factors of the development of the NEV industry in the context of ASEAN’s new energy policy. The specific regression model is as follows:

$$\begin{array}{ll}{Penetration}_{i,t}=& {\alpha }_0+{\alpha }_1{Post}_t+{\alpha }_2{WGI}_{i,t}+{\alpha }_3{\mathrm{U}\mathrm{s}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{g}\mathrm{e}}_{i,t}+{\alpha }_4{\mathrm{R}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{w}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{b}\mathrm{l}\mathrm{e}}_{i,t}\\ & +{\alpha }_5{\mathrm{F}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{c}\mathrm{e}}_{i,t}+{\alpha }_6{Education}_{i,t}+{\alpha }_7{Car}_{i,t}+{\alpha }_8{Electricity}_{i,t}\\ & +{Controls}_{i,t}+{\epsilon }_{i,t}\end{array}$$

(1)

Equation (1) is the benchmark model, in which ${Penetration}_{i,t}$ represents the level of development of the NEV industry in the country i in the year t; ${Post}_t$ is a time dummy variable, Post = 0 before 2016 and Post = 1 in 2016 and beyond; ${WGI}_{i,t}$, ${\mathrm{U}\mathrm{s}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{g}\mathrm{e}}_{i,t}$, ${\mathrm{R}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{w}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{b}\mathrm{l}\mathrm{e}}_{i,t}$, ${\mathrm{F}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{c}\mathrm{e}}_{i,t}$, ${Education}_{i,t}$, ${Car}_{i,t}$, and ${Electricity}_{i,t}$ are the level of governance, energy use, share of renewable energy generation, level of financial development, level of education, car market size, and access to electricity in country i in year t, respectively; ${Controls}_{i,t}$ is the control vector; ${\epsilon }_{i,t}$ is the random error term.

$$\begin{array}{ll}{Penetration}_{i,t}=& {\alpha }_0+{\alpha }_1{Post}_t\times {Treated}_i+{\alpha }_2{WGI}_{i,t}+{\alpha }_3{\mathrm{U}\mathrm{s}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{g}\mathrm{e}}_{i,t}\\ & +{\alpha }_4{\mathrm{R}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{e}\mathrm{w}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{b}\mathrm{l}\mathrm{e}}_{i,t}+{\alpha }_5{\mathrm{F}\mathrm{i}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{a}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{c}\mathrm{e}}_{i,t}+{\alpha }_6{Education}_{i,t}+{\alpha }_7{Car}_{i,t}\\ & +{\alpha }_8{Electricity}_{i,t}+{Controls}_{i,t}+{\epsilon }_{i,t}\end{array}$$

(2)

Considering the observed disparities in policy support and development levels across countries in the ASEAN region regarding the NEV industry, this study utilized the DID method to investigate potential disparities in the development levels of the NEV industry between countries with well-established automotive industries and those that have prioritized the development of NEVs following the implementation of the ASEAN–China Free Trade Agreement in 2016. Within the ASEAN region, Brunei is heavily reliant on fossil fuels and has thus far demonstrated a limited commitment to the promotion of NEVs. Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar are economically underdeveloped and lack the economic strength to promote NEVs. Their national policies are focused on safeguarding people’s livelihoods. Despite the evident potential of the Philippines and Vietnam to develop the NEV industry, their financial strength and policy coordination are insufficient to provide effective support for the development of NEVs. Singapore has established itself as a technology hub for NEVs. However, constrained by land scarcity and air pollution, the country has invested significantly in public transport over the past two decades, encouraging residents to opt for public transit over private vehicles. Consequently, the promotion of NEVs has not yielded the desired results. It is evident that Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia have established a more robust foundation in the automobile industry and have strategically positioned themselves as regional hubs for NEV production. These countries have been proactive in attracting both domestic and foreign investment and have been diligent in developing and enhancing the automobile industry chain [8]. The grouping variable Treated was thus set, with Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia selected as the experimental group (Treated = 1) and the remainder of the countries designated as the control group (Treated = 0). Based on Model (1), the cross-multiplier term Treated × Post was incorporated to formulate Model (2). This was then regressed to ascertain the disparities in the development of the new energy automobile industry among countries with differing levels of new energy automobile industry development following the implementation of the plan. Following the implementation of the scheme, an examination was conducted of the disparity in the developmental stage of the NEV industry among nations exhibiting varying degrees of advancement in this domain.

4.4. Empirical Results

4.4.1. Correlation Analysis

Basic correlation analysis quantifies the linear relationship between two variables; however, it fails to account for the potential influence of other variables. In contrast, the ASEAN new energy vehicle (NEV) industry—this study’s research object—is affected by the interaction of multiple factors, including policy, economy, technology, and society. Partial correlation analysis is a statistical technique used to determine the extent of linear correlation between two or more variables while controlling for the influence of other variables. It measures the “net correlation,” defined as the true correlation between variables after eliminating extraneous variables. Therefore, using the partial correlation coefficient is a more rational and reliable approach to elucidate the intrinsic linear relationship between economic variables. Following Kenett et al. [39], this paper employs partial correlation analysis for its correlation analysis, with results presented in

Table 7. Partial correlation analysis.

Variable	Partial	Semipartial	Partial	Semipartial	Significance
	Corr.	Corr.	Corr.2	Corr.2	Value
Post	0.319	0.244	0.102	0.0594	0.0351
WGI	0.358	0.278	0.128	0.0771	0.0172
Usage	−0.503	−0.422	0.253	0.178	0.0005
Renewable	−0.0974	−0.071	0.0095	0.005	0.529
Finance	0.509	0.429	0.26	0.184	0.0004
Education	0.283	0.214	0.08	0.0457	0.0628
Electricity	−0.254	−0.191	0.0647	0.0364	0.0957
Car	0.376	0.294	0.141	0.0865	0.0119
FDI	0.316	0.241	0.0998	0.0583	0.0367
CPI	0.184	0.136	0.0338	0.0184	0.232
Population	0.253	0.189	0.0639	0.0359	0.0979

. The results indicate that “Finance” and “Usage” were strongly and significantly correlated with the dependent variable, while “Post,” “WGI,” “Car,” and “FDI” were also significantly correlated.

4.4.2. Empirical Results and Analysis

The results of the benchmark regressions are presented in columns (1) through (3) of

Table 8. Regression results.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Penetration	Penetration	Penetration	Penetration	Penetration	Penetration
Post	6.339 **	6.37 **	6.519 **
	(2.09)	(2.08)	(2.18)
Treated × Post				9.887 **	10.41 **	12.01 **
				(2.02)	(2.11)	(2.48)
WGI	29.65 **	28.96 **	27.58 **	27.62 **	26.83 **	25.47 **
	(2.65)	(2.56)	(2.48)	(2.49)	(2.41)	(2.36)
Usage	−0.0191 ***	−0.019 ***	−0.0217 ***	−0.0199 ***	−0.02 ***	−0.0239 ***
	(−3.40)	(−3.36)	(−3.77)	(−3.43)	(−3.45)	(−4.03)
Renewable	−0.176	−0.329	−0.23	−0.242	−0.458	−0.39
	(−0.61)	(−0.90)	(−0.63)	(−0.79)	(−1.18)	(−1.03)
Finance	0.280 ***	0.302 ***	0.297 ***	0.286 ***	0.317 ***	0.318 ***
	(3.91)	(3.83)	(3.84)	(3.93)	(3.93)	(4.08)
Education	1.68	1.831	4.721 *	2.061	2.344	6.057 **
	(0.93)	(1.00)	(1.91)	(1.09)	(1.22)	(2.33)
Electricity	−0.740	−1.101	−1.43 *	−0.323	−0.78	−1.138
	(−1.15)	(−1.32)	(−1.70)	(−0.48)	(−0.93)	(−1.38)
Car	0.741 *	0.752 *	1.37 **	0.124	0.11	0.757
	(1.96)	(1.98)	(2.63)	(0.27)	(0.24)	(1.37)
FDI	1.301 **	1.283 **	1.099 **	1.503 ***	1.499 ***	1.335 **
	(2.58)	(2.52)	(2.16)	(2.82)	(2.80)	(2.55)
CPI		0.0693	0.126		0.0913	0.163
		(0.69)	(1.21)		(0.91)	(1.57)
Population			0.404 *			0.484 **
			(1.69)			(2.03)
Cons	65.53	91.99	102.7	30.99	64.3	73.79
	(1.07)	(1.27)	(1.44)	(0.49)	(0.88)	(1.05)
N	54	54	54	54	54	54
R2	0.432	0.438	0.474	0.429	0.439	0.489
Adj_R2	0.316	0.308	0.336	0.312	0.309	0.356

Note: ***, **, and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively.

. The initial column displays the regression results with the incorporation of foreign economy-level control variables exclusively. The subsequent column presents the regression results with the incorporation of national economy-level control variables. The final column illustrates the regression results with the incorporation of population-level control variables. The empirical results demonstrated that new energy policy, national governance level, energy usage, financial development level, and automobile market size exert a significant positive impact on the NEV industry in ASEAN countries. Specifically, the regression coefficient of Post was significantly positive at the 5% level, indicating that, following the entry into force of APAEC (2016–2025), ASEAN countries have reached a consensus among themselves in the areas of technical standards, the coordination of financial incentives, etc., and that the synergistic effect of the regional policy has significantly increased the penetration rate of NEVs in the region, which has strongly pushed forward the development of the new energy automobile industry. The regression coefficient of WGI was significantly positive at the 5% level, indicating that an increase in the level of national governance is associated with enhanced implementation of the NEV policy, increased awareness of environmental protection among the residents, and the promotion of the development of the NEV industry. The coefficient of Renewable Energy was not significant. This may be attributed to the low utilization of renewable energy in the ASEAN region, the need for further development, and the limited impact on the growth of the new energy automobile industry. The coefficient of Finance was significantly positive at the 1% level. This finding indicates that enhancing the level of financial development has the potential to optimize resource allocation and activate consumer demand, thereby significantly improving the development of the new energy automobile industry. The coefficient of Car was found to be significantly positive, indicating that the substantial automobile market scale accelerates the development of the new energy automobile industry through three mechanisms. First, it releases the demand for electric vehicles to replace oil vehicles. Second, it gives full play to the advantages of the transformation and upgrading of the industrial base of traditional automobile enterprises. Third, it catalyzes infrastructure upgrades. Moreover, the coefficient of the control variable FDI was revealed to be significantly positive at the 5% level, thus indicating that an increase in FDI results in the introduction of advanced technology and management styles to ASEAN countries. Furthermore, it was found that FDI exerts a significant effect on the development of the new energy automobile industry in ASEAN countries by promoting industrial clusters. Additionally, the coefficient of the Population variable was found to be significantly positive at the 10% level, thus indicating that ASEAN benefits from an abundant labor reserve. The continuously growing population was found to bring with it the advantage of a new energy automobile consumer market. The population’s increased consumption of NEVs has led to the expansion of the NEV consumer market, thereby promoting the sustainable development of the NEV industry.

As illustrated in columns (4) and (6) of Table 8, the regression results of the double difference model are presented. The coefficient of the cross-multiplier term Treated × Post was significantly positive, indicating that the promotion effect of APAEC (2016–2025) on the NEV industry is more obvious in countries with a better foundation of the automotive industry or policy priority: Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. The coefficients of WGI, Finance, Education, and FDI were examined, with the coefficient of Population being found to be significantly positive. This indicates that the countries in the treatment group, under the framework of regional policy synergy, develop the new energy automobile industry by improving the level of governance, increasing financial support, cultivating talent, introducing foreign capital, and utilizing the advantages of the labor force. The coefficient of Usage remains substantially negative, thereby indicating that the issue of elevated energy consumption in ASEAN countries is more pronounced in the countries constituting the treatment group. This, in turn, restricts the development of the new energy automobile industry. The coefficient of usage continues to exhibit a substantial negative value. It is imperative that the ASEAN countries, notably Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia, augment the development of renewable energy systems. This should be achieved through the integrated advancement of wind power and storage, the optimization of green power consumption mechanisms, and the synergy of clean energy infrastructure. Such measures are essential to overcome the energy constraints that impede progress, thereby providing low-carbon kinetic energy support for the nascent new energy automobile industry.

5. Research Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

The development of NEVs has become a significant means of promoting energy transition and sustainable economic growth. Based on data from six ASEAN countries from 2013 to 2024, this paper examines the development of the NEV industry and its influencing factors within the context of new energy policies. The study found that, following the implementation of the APAEC (2016–2025), ASEAN countries have played a strong role in promoting the development of the NEV industry in ASEAN by utilizing the synergistic effect of regional policies. The degree of national governance, the level of financial development, the standard of education, and the magnitude of automotive production contribute to the development of the industry, while excessive energy use has a dampening effect. Further research findings indicate that the APAEC (2016–2025) is particularly impactful in promoting the NEV industry in countries that possess a well-developed automotive industry foundation or policy priority, such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. In consideration of the findings, the present paper offers the following recommendations:

(1)

It is imperative to enhance the efficacy of governance and to encourage the synergistic advancement of the regional NEV industry. First, ASEAN should strengthen the APAEC (2016–2025) by establishing binding mechanisms—such as a cross-sectoral policy tracking platform to monitor compliance—to address policy fragmentation and implementation inefficiencies. Second, it can combine relevant policy tools with its own characteristics to accelerate the development of the NEV industry. For example, Indonesia could shift the focus of its OFDI record management from pre-approval to follow-up supervision, streamline redundant administrative procedures, and better balance efficiency and risk. In addition, ASEAN countries should deepen regional cooperation based on frameworks such as the APAEC (2016–2025), establish a mutual recognition system for NEV technical standards, a synergistic mechanism for financial subsidies, and explore a regional carbon credit trading platform.

(2)

Promote energy transformation and build a synergistic system of “renewable energy power generation and clean charging for NEVs”. Accelerate the development of abundant hydropower and photovoltaic resources in the ASEAN region, with a focus on advancing the construction of Laos’ hydropower hubs and a transnational transmission corridor between Thailand and Malaysia to realize regional clean energy complementarity. Moreover, regions or countries with abundant photovoltaic resources but underdeveloped power grids—such as Vietnam and the Philippines—can draw on the experience of Randallstown, Maryland, in the United States in developing rooftop photovoltaics and utilizing solar energy resources. Alternatively, they can implement integrated “photovoltaic + energy storage + charging pile” power plants. Simultaneously, develop Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology standards to enhance power supply resilience and the convenience of NEVs through bidirectional power flow [13].

(3)

It is imperative to enhance the standard of education, promote environmentally sustainable concepts among the populace, and cultivate talent for the NEV industry. The integration of the concept of sustainable development into fundamental education is imperative, as is the cultivation of residents’ environmental awareness and their identification with NEVs. This can be achieved through the implementation of activities such as environmental protection practice projects and the construction of low-carbon campuses. At the higher education level, the ASEAN NEV Young Talent Program can be established to attract R&D talents through mechanisms such as joint laboratories and academic visiting scholar programs. Additionally, joint industry–university–research initiatives can train talents in automotive engineering, battery technology, and policy management, providing intellectual support for regional green transformation.

(4)

Innovate financial instruments to stimulate capital flow on both the supply and demand sides. From a supply-side perspective, financial institutions should increase credit support for automobile enterprises’ R&D investment and production expansion, and raise the proportion of medium- and long-term loans. They should also explore innovative products, focusing on developing options such as pledge loans for NEVs, points revenue rights loans, and carbon emission reduction loans—all designed to support the green and low-carbon development of vehicle enterprises. From a demand-side perspective, it is suggested that financial institutions and automobile manufacturers collaborate to implement a “New Energy Car Purchase Exclusive Credit Plan,” offering a zero-down-payment, low-interest installment program to reduce consumers’ financial burden when purchasing a vehicle. Piloting a “Green Travel Credit Card” that provides consumption rebates, charging discounts, and other stacked benefits for car buyers would also be beneficial. Furthermore, establishing a regional NEV consumer finance platform could facilitate cross-border car purchase financial services for users with adequate credit, thereby accelerating the integration of the regional NEV market.

Certainly, there are still some limitations in this article that deserve further research by scholars. First, given the substantial disparities in the safety profiles of different NEVs and the challenges associated with quantifying these differences, the article does not delve specifically into how these factors influence the market penetration rate of NEVs—an area that undoubtedly merits in-depth research. Second, the data employed in this analysis was drawn exclusively from the ASEAN-6 countries, potentially limiting our ability to detect nuanced variations in the NEV industry across other economic contexts. The restricted sample size may compromise the generalizability of the findings. Third, this study places particular emphasis on macroeconomic indicators, with relatively less attention given to micro-level factors—such as consumer preferences, NEV pricing strategies, and competitive dynamics among automakers—that could influence automotive market trends. Future research should aim to expand the dataset and incorporate a broader spectrum of indicators to develop a more holistic understanding of the drivers shaping the NEV market.