Climate Action for Decarbonization: The Case of a Subnational Government in Brazil

Abstract

The reduction in greenhouse gas emissions must be accelerated. Countries that are signatories to the Paris Agreement must propose their nationally determined contributions and develop decarbonization strategies to achieve conditional targets. In this paper, we identify a gap between these strategies and the capacity of governments to execute them. We use design science to structure this problem and apply Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) methodology to identify strategic objectives and to define prioritization criteria for the proposed actions. We then combine this with the Soft System Methodology (SSM) to identify alternative means to achieve net zero. We identify some critical issues that have an impact on implementing decarbonization strategies: (a) the large number of proposed actions; (b) agents affected by decarbonization actions that are not under the control of the government responsible for managing the strategy; and (c) the level of readiness of available technologies and the economic conditions for their implementation. Thus, this paper presents (1) a process to support implementing decarbonization strategies (PIMADE); (2) a combined use of the VFT and SSM methodologies for structuring problems to organize decision objectives and to establish actions for implementing strategies; and (3) an application of the proposed process at the subnational governmental level in Brazil.

1. Introduction

Global governance to address climate change is a key issue in achieving targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. According to [1] of the 198 countries that signed the Paris Agreement, 4.5% have achieved their net-zero targets, 10.6% have declared that they will achieve their targets, 8.6% have legislated, 29.3% have formulated policies to achieve neutrality targets, and the remaining 47% are in the process of discussing documents to achieve decarbonization.

The report Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement, drawn up as guided by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [2], states that 75% of its signatories require capacity-building actions to be applied to policy formulation to achieve net zero. At the core of this policy is action by each country to implement its commitments to reduce GHG emissions by drawing up decarbonization strategies that are part of its nationally determined contribution (NDC).

In addition to national states, non-state and subnational actors (e.g., regions, cities, and businesses) have joined these efforts [3,4,5,6,7]. The Under2 Coalition [8] brings together 270 subnational actors committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, and encourages the development of local decarbonization strategies which aim to implement NDCs. Kuramochi et al. [9] argue that the full implementation of individually reported and quantifiable commitments by regions, cities, and companies in ten major economies could reduce emissions by 3.8–5.5% by 2030, which would be greater than the projections set out in current national policy scenarios.

However, the literature has not conceptually clarified the conditions that lead to accelerated systemic decarbonization [10]. While many papers have analyzed the content of decarbonization strategies, the processes by which decarbonization strategies are developed have so far attracted less attention [11]. Decarbonization strategies require a multi-model, multi-stakeholder assemblage, given the time horizon and the ambition of the objectives. They seek to project trajectories that show a decline in GHG emissions to meet the demands of economic sectors at the lowest possible cost, and align with the commitments assumed by countries in the Paris Agreement.

Brazil established the Commitment to Climate Federalism, building on the CHAMP Initiative (Coalition for High-Ambition Multilevel Partnerships), which was endorsed at COP28 by 62 countries. This instrument defines the climate agenda as a priority for executive branches responsible for decisions at all levels of government. It sets out the commitment for federal entities to develop climate plans, instruments, and targets to be adopted in a continuous, progressive, coordinated, and participatory manner with all relevant actors.

Kanitkar et al. [12] highlight the need for new analytical frameworks for modeling emissions and building climate-policy scenarios which indicate possible equitable and environmentally correct futures. Decarbonization strategies present measures and actions that require efforts from all sectors of the economy and thus include a broad range of stakeholders, including government departments, public agencies, and—often—business groups, unions, and NGOs [11], which are not necessarily under government control. This makes implementing such measures and actions difficult [13].

This article presents a confirmed case of decarbonization strategies at the subnational governmental level in Brazil. The construction of the decarbonization strategies of the Government of Pernambuco (GOVPE) was supported by an integrated scheme involving an economic and a technological model. The economic modeling uses the Economic Forecasting Equilibrium System (EFES), a computable general equilibrium model based on input–output matrices [14]. The technological modeling uses the Brazilian Land-Use and Energy System Model (BLUES), which is an integrated assessment model for Brazil [15]. The models interact with EFES, feeding BLUES with their projections of socioeconomic variables, which supply data on the sectoral demands that must be met. With these data, BLUES processes the set of sectoral technologies with the lowest cost to meet these demands, and also takes into account the desired restrictions on GHG emissions.

This article contributes to filling the gap in the literature highlighted by [11,13] regarding the difficulty of implementing decarbonization actions arising from the fact that they involve a wide range of stakeholders that are not under government control. The proposed methodology addresses the challenge faced by the GOVPE Secretariats in implementing actions in line with the objectives of government management. Once the decarbonization plan was established, the GOVPE Secretariats decided to implement the proposed actions; however, they lacked a previously defined roadmap. As an example of an action proposed within the measure “Expansion of renewable electricity generation” in GOVPE, there is the action of “Establishing goals for including renewable energy from Pernambuco in the installed capacity of the Brazilian electricity sector”, for which the following Secretariats would be responsible for undertaking these actions: the State Secretariat of Planning and Management (SEPLAG); the Secretariat of Economic Development (SDEC); the Secretariat of Mobility and Infrastructure (SEINFRA); and the Secretariat of the Environment and Sustainability (SEMAS). The question that arises is how each of these Secretariats can contribute to implementing this action within the scope of its attributions while considering the involvement of actors outside the state government, such as energy companies, regulatory agencies, research and innovation institutions, and the population at large.

Based on this difficulty, verified in the various actions already planned, this article proposes a methodology for implementing decarbonization strategies, initially for GOVPE, but which can also be expanded to other subnational governments. To support the proposed methodology, Value-Focused Thinking (VFT) [16] and the Soft System Methodology (SSM) [17] are combined.

This article is organized as follows: Following this Introduction, Section 2 presents a brief review of the literature on net zero. Section 3 introduces a new methodology to support implementing decarbonization strategies. Section 4 describes the application of the new methodology at a subnational governmental level in Brazil. Section 5 discusses the results obtained, and Section 6 presents the conclusions of this research and makes suggestions for future studies.

2. Review of the Literature

This section presents a brief review of the literature on the challenges related to implementing integrated climate actions for reducing GHG emissions to promote mechanisms for capacity building for climate change-related planning and effective management in emerging countries that include a focus on women, young people, and local and marginalized communities, as guided by UN Sustainable Development Goal 13.

In the climate policy area, governing through targets and goals has become commonplace, as it is difficult to reach binding top-down agreements [18,19,20,21]. The Paris Agreement requires parties to build Long-Term Low-Emissions Development Strategies (LT-LEDS) and communicate them to the UNFCCC as a complement to nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that focus on short-term climate action [22]. LT-LEDS serve the function of politically signaling climate ambitions to negotiate international partnerships, to request financial assistance, or to demonstrate results, as well as being an objective tool for implementing climate policy.

A systematic review of the literature on net zero [23] found 41,459 articles published since 1939, with an explosive growth in the number of articles published between 2021 and 2023, thus demonstrating the commitment of science to producing proposals that contribute to neutralizing GHG emissions.

2.1. Principles Guiding Decarbonization Policy

The principles that guide decarbonization by guiding state and private policies [24,25,26,27] to raise standards of human development should be an objective of all decarbonization strategies, but these must be combined with changing people’s consumption patterns and recognizing that natural resources are not endless and must be used rationally [28,29]. A decarbonized economy requires new business models [30,31,32,33] that positively impact people’s lives and provide a “just transition” for those most affected by the change, such as workers in the coal and oil industry who lose their jobs when renewable fuels replace fossil fuels [34,35].

Any analysis of scenarios for the use of technologies to reduce GHG emissions by using renewable energy sources [36,37,38] must take into account the fact that many technologies predicted to reduce GHG emissions have different levels of technological readiness [39,40,41]; such technologies include green hydrogen and the capture, use, and storage of carbon gas, both of which require further development before they can be adopted in full. In this context, Cheng and Jiang [42] suggest that policymakers should pay attention to improving the connection between the emerging carbon market and the need for electricity market reform, and utilize the price discovery function of the carbon market to guide investment decisions in the renewable energy sector.

In addition to technological maturity, geopolitical aspects must also be analyzed. For example, the war in Ukraine has made it challenging to import natural gas, which was replacing coal, thereby causing changes in the decarbonization strategies established by member countries of the European Community as defined in the European Green Deal [43,44]. Another important aspect that must be taken into consideration is that increases in renewable energy in emerging economies such as Brazil tend to lead to an increase in energy intensity, as observed by [45]; as a result, special attention will be needed regarding mechanisms that improve the overall energy efficiency of the production system.

2.2. Need to Implement Integrated Decarbonization Strategies

All efforts to reduce GHG emissions are welcome, but integrated plans and a multilevel climate governance system to achieve the net zero goal deserve special attention [3,46,47,48,49]. We identified several levels of coverage for these strategies, from the methodology presented by Pulselli et al. [50] for Cityzen Roadshows applied to cities and their neighborhoods to develop a local decarbonization strategy in 5 days, to the model proposed by Basimile et al. [51] to integrate government policies with the provision of renewable energy for industry, electricity production, and transportation in order to neutralize GHG emissions in Sichuan Province, China.

This review led us to consider the need for policymakers to deepen their understanding of the main uncertainties in strategies for mitigating climate change and the interdependence of policies. This reinforced the need to formulate robust decarbonization strategies [11,32] that aim at achieving the neutrality goals assumed in international agreements.

Theoretical frameworks such as VFT and the SSM provide a robust foundation for structuring decarbonization strategies. VFT aligns with the need to prioritize actions based on stakeholder values [16], while the SSM addresses systemic barriers to implementation [17]. Recent studies on ESG practices further underscore the role of governance in driving sustainability outcomes [52], reinforcing the relevance of these theories to our context.

The literature highlights that decarbonization strategies require efforts from all sectors of the economy, making their implementation difficult. Furthermore, these strategies contain essential objectives, but do not present a clear definition of those responsible for implementing them. Finally, there is a need to involve society in the implementation process so that it is possible to visualize more possibilities for decarbonization strategies. Based on the literature review, we established following proposition to guide the development of the methodology proposed in this article: the effectiveness of the actions of subnational governments in the implementation of decarbonization policies requires support instruments to put them into practice. The methodology proposed in this article contributes to filling this gap, being an instrument to support the implementation of decarbonization strategies.

3. Materials and Methods

In turbulent and uncertain times, decision-makers (DMs) use planning methods to explore, align, and improve development strategies and outline scenarios to understand which change factors may affect the future [53].

National or subnational governments lead these plans, which also involve several agents, such as public and private companies, organized civil society, academia, and citizens. Inclusive participation in policy-making and carefully considered communication can increase public support [54].

Given this complexity, selecting an appropriate methodology for implementing decarbonization strategies determines its success [11]. This section describes the construction of a methodology to support implementing, monitoring, and evaluating decarbonization strategies.

3.1. Methodology Design

The design science technique was adopted to construct an implementation methodology, which enables artifacts to be created and evaluated to solve organizational problems [55,56,57]. Next, the six activities proposed by [58] were developed.

Table 1. Synthesis of the results of the activities of design science research. Created by the authors.

Process of Design Science Research	Stages in the Development of the Procedure
Activity 1 and 2. Identify the problem (motivation) and objectives of the solution.	Constructing a methodology for implementing decarbonization strategies is necessary when it is realized that the actions described in the strategies involve many agents over whom the government has no control. The literature does not present roadmaps for implementing decarbonization strategies. It is essential to propose a methodology that integrates all the agents involved and enables the recommendations of the strategies to be implemented.
Activity 3. Develop the artifact.	The methodology needs to provide instruments that guarantee the involvement of all the agents mentioned. The government must act as a promoter, regulator, and inspector of the decarbonization actions. It must verify the actions being implemented and what still needs to be achieved, according to the recommendations of the decarbonization strategy. It must map the perception of the agents involved and create alternatives that enable implementation of the decarbonization strategies.
Activity 4. Demonstration.	This entire process needs to be instrumentalized and made accessible by developing an information system that allows the monitoring and follow-up of the actions for implementing the decarbonization strategies.
Activity 5. Evaluation.	The proposed methodology must be discussed and validated by representatives of the agents involved in implementing the decarbonization strategies.
Activity 6. Communication.	The proposed methodology must be publicized.

presents a summary of the activities that led to the methodology.

To ensure the integration of all stakeholders of decarbonization strategies, a government body must be designed to coordinate actions. As shown in Figure 1, a Carbon Neutral Committee (CNC) is suggested.

This body’s responsibilities will be as follows: I—to create and implement a system to monitor the goals; II—to define priority actions for implementing the goals; III—to periodically report on the progress of decarbonization actions; IV—to identify sources of resources for the progress of decarbonization actions; and V—to review the decarbonization strategies.

The monitoring system will be designed to keep the information on the decarbonization strategies and its progress indicators up to date and to ensure that the GHG inventory is also kept up to date.

Given the urgency of the issue, it is important to optimize resources (capital, human resources, and time) while implementing decarbonization strategies. Hence, the CNC will confer agility on discussions and decisions on implementing the decarbonization strategies.

Each government unit involved in the decarbonization strategies will be responsible for a set of programs to implement decarbonization actions that are continuously monitored. To make this monitoring feasible, an information system must be developed for use by these units.

3.2. A Combined VFT-SSM to Structure the Methodology for Implementing Decarbonization Strategies

This proposed methodology involves coordinating the different actors responsible for the proposed actions and creating mechanisms to involve the communities directly affected when these mechanisms are implemented. The steps are detailed below, along with the support methods proposed to execute them.

Step 1—Structuring the objectives to be achieved by the government unit. The first step of the methodology consists of identifying the objectives to be achieved by each government unit drawing up decarbonization actions. Although the overall objective of having decarbonization strategies is to reduce CO₂ emissions, each government unit assumes different responsibilities according to its specific objectives. Structuring the objectives of the government unit facilitates identifying alternatives for the purposes of decarbonization. To assist in this step, Keeney’s [16] VFT methodology is proposed. According to Morais et al. [59] and De Almeida et al. [60], VFT provides a systematic approach to structuring the objectives to be achieved in complex decisions by making explicit what is wanted and allowing one to discover how to achieve this. Applications of VFT can be found in the context of sustainability [61,62,63]. In the present work, not all stages of the VFT methodology are applied, but rather only the structuring of the hierarchy of fundamental objectives and the network of means objectives.

Step 2—Definition of actions to achieve the objectives identified in Step 1. Because the activities involve many actors and difficulties in implementation will arise, applying the SSM is suggested, as this leads to understanding the necessary changes with the objective of finding alternatives that lead to tackling highly complex problems more effectively. As proposed by [17], the SSM has been helpful in sustainability [64,65]. We also highlight a study that combined the SSM and VFT [62], thus reinforcing the suitability of using these two methodologies in implementing the decarbonization strategies. However, unlike Bernardo et al. [62], who used the SSM to define objectives and VFT to create alternatives for action, this study structures the organizational unit’s objectives by applying VFT in Step 1. Each branch of the network of intermediate objectives is then transformed into a problem situation to be worked on using the SSM method.

The SSM approach consists of seven steps. This enables various aspects of the problem situation, which is the object of the study, to be learned and understood more easily and thoroughly. The first two steps set out to understand and define the problem situation. The last three steps are used to generate recommendations for change and establish actions to improve the problem situation based on a comparison between the current actual situation and the desired ideal situation. There are also two steps related to systemic thinking, in which basic definitions and conceptual models of the systems are developed. In this study, the branches of the network of intermediate constructed objectives are transformed into problem situations. For each problem situation, a rich figure is constructed, and relevant systems and the root definition are identified according to Steps 1 and 2 of the SSM method.

Step 3—Prioritizing actions that must be developed to contribute to the decarbonization process. Within the scope of the CNC, a multicriteria decision support method should be used to prioritize the actions identified in Step 2 that need to be developed in the short, medium, and long term. The multicriteria approach is appropriate because it seeks to achieve more than one objective by prioritizing actions.

Step 4—Monitoring and follow-up of decarbonization actions. The fourth and final step of the methodology involves creating an information system for monitoring and following up on decarbonization actions.

The set of activities for implementing the decarbonization strategies using the proposed methodology was called the Process for Implementing and Monitoring Decarbonization Actions (PIMADE). In the next section, we describe how this was applied in GOVPE to validate the proposed steps for the methodology of implementing the decarbonization strategies.

4. Application of PIMADE and Results

In Brazil, GOVPE accepted the challenge of making the state of Pernambuco carbon neutral by 2050, and prepared its decarbonization plan [66]. It now seeks to execute the actions set out in the decarbonization strategies based on the selected technologies and on adopting public policies and business models to meet the decarbonization goals of the state. The Pernambuco Decarbonization Plan (PDPE) was built according to the five stages detailed in Figure 2.

The PDPE contains projections for decarbonization (Figure 3) in the energy and industry sectors, as well as in land use, solid waste, and transportation.

The PDPE selected low-carbon technologies that could reduce projected emissions by 75% by 2050. The remaining 25% of emissions will be offset by removing carbon from the atmosphere, through carbon storage and/or generating energy from biomass. The PDPE identifies 45 technological solutions, 59 GHG reduction targets, 63 indicators, and 215 actions to be implemented by seven state agencies.

The PIMADE was adopted by the GOVPE Secretariat of Environment and Sustainability (SEMAS) as a pilot study. The process was applied using the four steps (Figure 4) described in Section 3.

4.1. Structure Objectives

To apply Step 1, an Executive Decarbonization Group (GED) was defined at SEMAS. The group coordinator acted as the DM responsible for establishing the hierarchy of objectives and the network of means objectives, following the steps of the VFT methodology. Figure 5 presents how the SEMAS objectives were structured in the context of decarbonization.

The branches of the network of means objectives were constructed using the VFT methodology and transformed into problem situations.

4.2. Identify Problem Situations and Relevant Systems

In Step 2, the SSM method was applied, with the participation of the GED members. According to the SSM method, relevant systems were identified with their root definition for each problem situation. The members of the GED met and, for each problem situation derived from the end-means objectives identified with the VFT application, a graphical visualization was constructed. This visualization explained the entities involved in the problem situation, represented of how things work, detailed the responsibilities and competencies, and highlighted the relationship between structure and process. According to the SSM method, such a graphical representation is referred to as a rich figure. For each problem situation, the GED constructed a rich figure that allowed the visualization and identification of the relevant systems. Figure 6 represents the rich figure constructed for one of the problem situations, that of vegetation conservation.

Table 2. Problem situations and relevant systems/root definitions identified. Created by the authors.

Problem Situation	Relevant Systems/Root Definition
1-Use of renewable energy	(a) Centralized generation system/Need to promote the expansion of centralized renewable energy generation while reducing socio-environmental impacts.
	(b) Distributed generation system/Need to promote the expansion of the generation of distributed renewable energy.
2-Management of wastes	(a) Waste management system/Need to improve the management of urban solid waste (education, separation, recycling, composting).
	(b) Biofuel generation system/Need to advance the recovery and use of biogas (in landfills and sewage treatment plants).
3-Use of land	(a) Land use management system/Need to adopt sustainable, resilient and low-carbon production systems (agroforestry systems, crop–livestock–forest integration) with increased productivity, without increasing the area under cultivation, providing high added value and efficient mechanisms for accessing markets and the energy use of waste.
	(b) Rural property management system/Need to ensure the regularization of rural properties by applying the legal definitions of permanent protection areas and of legal reserves of native forests.
4-Conservation of vegetation	(a) Native vegetation management system/Need to create monetization opportunities to maintain the preservation of native areas.
	(b) Reforestation control system/Need to reduce deforestation (inspection and environmental education).
	(c) Conservation systems/Need to conserve the Caatinga and Atlantic Forest in the form of Conservation Units protected by specific laws.
5-The use of low-carbon transport	(a) Transportation system/Need to improve low-carbon transportation alternatives for the population.
	(b) Biofuel use system/Need to create opportunities to increase and diversify the use of biofuels in the state’s transportation system.
	(c) Urban logistics system/Need to stimulate the systemic management of urban logistics in the state’s municipalities.
	(d) Electrification system/Need to create opportunities for the use of electrification in the state’s transportation.

presents the problem situations and the relevant systems identified.

This study identified five problem situations, covering 13 relevant systems. Each one contains a root definition and the significant elements that need to be considered in a possible approach to solve the problem situation.

4.3. Apply CATWOE to Identify Stock

For each of the relevant systems, the CATWOE elements were proposed, in which the Clients (C), the Actors (A), the Transformation Process (T), the Weltanschauung (perception or worldview that results in the desired transformation) (W), the Owners (O) and the Environment (E) are identified.

As an example, we present the CATWOE application for the problem situation/relevant system/root definition set 4-c described in Table 2, as follows:

• Client: Population.
• Actors: Rural landowners, companies, Department of the Environment, State Environmental Inspection Agency.
• Transformation process: Less than 5% of the territory of Pernambuco was under protection as a conservation unit when the UN Convention on Biological Diversity established the need to conserve at least 30% of the Earth’s natural habitats and to reduce to almost zero the loss of areas of high importance for biodiversity, including ecosystems of high ecological integrity. Pernambuco needs to establish which areas in its territory should remain conserved to guarantee biodiversity, resilience, and carbon stocks.
• Weltanschauung: Create conservation units of native biomes protected by law, create ecological corridors, and define ecological–economic zoning that directs new ventures to degraded areas and establishes severe restrictions in areas important for conservation.
• Owner: The person who has the power to modify or stop the transformation, SEMAS, State Environmental Inspection Agency.
• Environmental Constraints: Financial resources for expropriation, inspection, guidance, notification, administrative processes, fines, maintenance, and management of protected areas.

Based on the five problem situations identified, by applying the SSM method and the transformation actions proposed in the CATWOE for each of the 13 relevant systems/root definitions (Table 2), 38 actions were identified to be developed by SEMAS, as presented in

Table 3. Actions identified by SEMAS. Created by the authors.

A1. Liaise with the Department of Agriculture to determine actions to promote the use of solar energy on family farms (income generation, energy security)

A2. Liaise with the Department of Infrastructure to promote the use of distributed energy in public buildings

A3. Liaise with funding bodies to facilitate credit for the acquisition of equipment for generating distributed energy (farmers, companies, homes)

A4. Liaise with technology and education centers to provide training in the use of distributed renewable energy

A5. Liaise with the Department of Economic Development to attract new ventures/investments for the generation of renewable energy in the state and engage in negotiations with the federal government on transmission lines, grants, and auctions

A6. Work on regulating centralized renewable energy generation projects to ensure a reduction in socio-environmental impacts

A7. Liaise with the Department of Science and Technology to encourage universities and technology and research centers to provide training and qualifications in the area of renewable energy and conduct research to make the use of new sources viable in Pernambuco (e.g., green hydrogen)

A8. Support the Department of Agriculture in training farmers to adopt sustainable low-carbon technologies and practices for breeding and cultivation, providing technical assistance and rural extension

A9. Promote, together with the Department of Agriculture and regional development banks, programs for access to credit to finance low-carbon technologies

A10. Support the Department of Agriculture in developing projects to improve agricultural products that generate greater added value

A11. Support initiatives to increase the flow of agricultural products into markets

A12. Implement a structure to enable the validation of rural environmental records

A13. Develop a program to support the reforestation of Legal Reserve areas and Permanent Preservation Areas on rural properties

A14. Seek strategies with the Department of Agriculture to advance land regularization/documentation of rural properties

A15. Promote and support studies and projects that seek to monetize environmental assets, resulting in a financial return for owners who preserve native vegetation

A16. Improve the structure of environmental inspection

A17. Develop mechanisms to discourage illegal deforestation

A18. Promote environmental education

A19. Work with municipalities to strengthen inspection and environmental education actions at the municipal level;

A20. Create conservation units for native biomes

A21. Create ecological corridors

A22. Propose ecological–economic zoning that directs enterprises to degraded areas and establishes severe restrictions in areas important for conservation

A23. Work with municipalities to strengthen selective collection in urban and rural areas

A24. Work with municipalities to strengthen collectors’ associations

A25. Work with companies to advance the implementation of reverse logistics

A26. Support municipalities in raising funds to make waste management actions viable

A27. Work with sanitary landfills to establish mechanisms to encourage the use of biogas generated in landfills

A28. Work with the Infrastructure Secretariat to establish mechanisms to encourage and use biogas in treatment plants

A29. Plan and develop, together with the Urban Development Secretariat and other actors involved in the field, a program that aims to guide the state’s municipalities in implementing actions aimed at improving low-carbon transportation alternatives in towns, the purpose being to intensify their use by the population (including measures to promote active transportation, such as bike paths, thermal comfort/tree planting, improvements in safety conditions, improvements in public transportation, and low-carbon transportation collectives, among others)

A30. Plan and develop a program to identify sources of resources for municipalities to develop actions aimed at improving low-carbon transportation alternatives in towns

A31. Liaise with the Infrastructure Department to develop a program for integrating modes of transport.

A32.Promote work with the Science and Technology Department to develop studies and technologies for the local production and use of biofuels and green fuels

A33. Promote work with the Infrastructure Department to develop studies and regulations to enable the use of biofuels (e.g., ethanol in the public fleet)

A34. Liaise with the Infrastructure Department to develop studies and plans for implementing optimized systemic management of urban logistics (installation of distribution centers, freight transportation outside urban centers, active freight transportation within municipalities)

A35. Liaise with the Department of Science and Technology to promote research for technological development aimed at reducing costs associated with electrification (including the viability of local wind and solar production to directly supply the vehicle charging system)

A36. Liaise with/support the Department of Infrastructure to promote dialog between manufacturers/private initiatives and other stakeholders seeking to foster the installation of infrastructure for electric vehicles

A37. Liaise with the Department of Infrastructure to prepare studies to increase the number of electric metro lines

A38. Liaise with the Department of Infrastructure to prepare studies and standards for the electrification of public transport (buses)

.

After completing Step 2 of PIMADE, Step 3 prioritized the actions generated.

4.4. Prioritizing the Actions

To prioritize the identified decarbonization actions, the objectives that the DM wishes to achieve by prioritizing these actions must be established. In structuring SEMAS’s objectives, in Step 1, after applying the VFT (Figure 5), three fundamental objectives were identified: to contribute to generating sustainable employment and income in the state; to contribute to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the strategic axes of the PDPE; and to contribute to the resilience/adaptation of the state to extreme events/climate change. A multicriteria approach was used for this prioritization, because the intention was to achieve more than one objective.

To verify whether the actions contributed to achieving SEMAS’s objectives, the criteria that would enable the performance of the decarbonization actions to be measured considering these objectives needed to be established. Thus, two indicators were constructed together with the SEMAS GED, namely, the mitigation index and the adaptation index, as described below. These were the criteria used in prioritizing the actions.

4.4.1. Mitigation Index

The mitigation index (MI) is defined as

$$\mathrm{M}\mathrm{I}={\displaystyle \frac{pr+i}{\max (pr+i)}}$$

(1)

where pr is the potential for reducing GHG emissions according to what is established in the PDPE, being evaluated on a three-point verbal scale where 3 indicates a high impact, 2 means indicates a medium impact and 1 indicates a low impact; i is the type of impact, evaluated as 2 if the impact is direct and 1 if the impact is indirect; $\max (pr+i)$ represents the maximum possible score obtainable according to the adopted scales; and MI is a number between 0 and 1. The closer it is to 1, the greater the contribution of the action to reducing GHG emissions.

4.4.2. Adaptation Index

The adaptation index (AI) is defined as

$$\mathrm{AI}={\sum }_{k=1}^n{\displaystyle \frac{a_k}{n}}$$

(2)

where$a_k$ corresponds to the attribute k established to evaluate each action, k = 1, 2, 3, and 4, such that$a_1$ evaluates whether the action contributes, yes or no, in some way to generating sustainable employment and income;$a_2$ evaluates whether the action contributes, yes or no, in some way to a resilient infrastructure;$a_3$ evaluates whether the action contributes, yes or no, in some way to the conservation of ecosystems and water security; $a_4$ evaluates whether the action contributes, yes or no, in some way to ensuring food, nutritional, and health security; and n is the total number of k attributes established. AI is a number between 0 and 1. The closer it is to 1, the greater the contribution of the action to adaptation and resilience to climate change and extreme events.

4.5. Prioritized Actions

To conduct the multicriteria analysis of the actions, the DM’s rationality was identified. In this problem, the DM wanted to prioritize actions that presented a more balanced performance in the two evaluation criteria, characterizing a non-compensatory rationality.

The method chosen to perform the multicriteria evaluation was PROMETHEE-ROC—Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation—Rank Order Centroid [67], because it is a non-compensatory multicriteria method, which enables actions to be ordered from the best- to the worst-performing ones, and has the advantage over other methods of requiring only ordinal information of the criteria from the DM.

Each action was evaluated according to the two evaluation criteria represented by the mitigation and adaptation indices. The GED established by consensus that the most important criterion would be the prioritization of actions that would most contribute to the adaptation of the state of Pernambuco to climate change. With information on the order of importance between the criteria, the PROMETHE-ROC method assigned a weight of 0.75 to the adaptation criterion and 0.25 to the mitigation criterion, which were considered adequate by the GED. The matrix with the action evaluation data was inserted into PROMETHEE-ROC DSS, a web-based decision support system available free of charge at https://www.cdsid.org.br/prometheeroc/ (accessed on 05 May 2025). Of the 38 actions (Table 3) identified and submitted to PROMETHEE-ROC, the top 10 with the best evaluation were prioritized (

Table 4. Actions prioritized by SEMAS. Created by the authors.

(A1) Liaise with the Department of Agriculture to promote the use of solar energy on family farming properties (income generation, energy security)

(A2) Liaise with the Infrastructure Secretariat on the use of energy distributed in public buildings

(A13) Develop a program to support the reforestation of Legal Reserve areas and Permanent Preservation Areas on rural properties

(A16) Improve the environmental inspection structure

(A17) Develop mechanisms to discourage illegal deforestation

(A20) Create conservation units for native biomes

(A21) Create ecological corridors

(A15) Promote and support studies and projects that seek to monetize environmental assets, resulting in a financial return to owners who preserve native vegetation

(A3) Liaise with funding bodies to facilitate credit to enable purchase of equipment for generating distributed energy (farmers, companies, homes)

(A4) Liaise with technology and education centers to provide training in the use of distributed renewable energy

). A sensitivity analysis was performed, with a variation of ±10% in the values of the weights of the criteria and the evaluations of decarbonization actions. This showed that the 10 prioritized actions remain among the 10 best evaluated, although their order of priority has changed.

5. Discussion

By applying the VFT methodology in Step 1, that of structuring the objectives, GOVPE was able to identify the objectives to be achieved in this decision-making context and the means to achieve them. The paths to be taken and the obstacles to be overcome became clear. When applying the SSM in Step 2, involving the members of SEMAS GED, the public agents could visualize the relevant systems and determine what needed to be achieved to resolve the identified problematic situations.

Studies in the literature have utilized the SSM and VFT, separately and in combination, in the context of sustainability [62,64,65]. Initially, the PIMADE methodology would begin by applying the SSM method to define the decarbonization activities that each Secretariat is responsible for, to be carried out in the short, medium, and long term. These activities would be followed by a meeting of the CCN to prioritize decarbonization activities. Then, the VFT methodology would be applied to identify objectives and establish indicators for the activities, as well as their connection to the indicators of the decarbonization plan, as presented in Bernardo et al. [62].

However, after discussions with SEMAS, it became clear that there was a need to first establish which objectives the Secretariat should prioritize in executing the actions, and how these actions intertwined with activities already carried out. The establishment of objectives enabled decarbonization actions that supported the prioritization of climate adaptation activities within the set of mitigation actions, a situation not initially foreseen in the PDPE. This difficulty faced in implementing the PDPE corroborates the analysis of Sietsma et al. [68] regarding the submissions of the Global Stocktake, where they identified that the decarbonization strategies adopted contained more descriptive topics than those related to the practical implementation of the proposed solutions.

Kovac et al. [43] identified that a common problem in climate strategies is that while they contain the essential objectives, the tasks are not sufficiently channeled towards coordinating the various territorial and sub-national levels of climate planning and governance, in which government structures are constantly changing and a clear definition of those responsible for implementing the actions is lacking. The use of PIMADE contributes to filling this gap by supporting the implementation of location-specific climate actions and fostering the emergence of climate innovations. The prioritization of actions using mitigation and adaptation indices (Section 4.4) reflects VFT’s emphasis on value-driven decision-making. Similarly, the SSM-based identification of problem situations (Table 2) demonstrates how systemic barriers can be addressed through iterative stakeholder engagement. These results align with broader ESG research that highlights governance as a critical enabler of sustainability transitions [52]. Thus, the local territorial level is strengthened by what has become a maxim of climate policy: “think globally, act locally”.

Regarding the action presented as challenging to implement in the Introduction of this article to illustrate the motivations for developing the methodology proposed here, namely, the measure “Expansion of renewable electricity generation” in the state, the action of “Establishing goals for including renewable energy from Pernambuco in the installed capacity of the Brazilian electricity sector” is cited. The application of PIMADE identified and prioritized actions that GOVPE could develop that would contribute to implementing the plan, including (1) to liaise with the Department of Agriculture to promote the use of solar energy on family farming properties (income generation, energy security); and (4) to liaise with technology and education centers to provide training in the use of distributed renewable energy, among other actions that were identified but were not prioritized.

On implementing PIMADE, 38 actions were identified that could be carried out by GOVPE in pursuit of net zero, of which 10 were prioritized to reconcile the need to execute the actions with the means and resources available to begin implementing PDPE within SEMAS. The prioritized actions involve articulating SEMAS with various stakeholders, including the Ministry of Agriculture, financing agencies, and technological and educational institutions, as outlined in Table 4.

However, we must consider that other prioritized actions involve coordination with other government departments that have not yet had the opportunity to apply PIMADE, such as the State Infrastructure Secretariat. Once the application of PIMADE is established across the government, the harmonization of actions and prioritization of all government actions will be carried out within the scope of the CCN (Figure 1), involving all government areas responsible for implementing PDPE.

This problem may be repeated in other government units responsible for implementing the actions and indicates the importance of applying the proposed methodology within the entire GOVPE.

It is important to highlight that in the definition of the fundamental objectives in Step 1, there is an intertwining of the necessary neutrality of GHG emissions and the construction of a new standard of economic and environmental development. This was frequently highlighted in the literature review, with the creation of jobs in sustainable economic chains that are resilient to extreme events resulting from climate change being emphasized.

Therefore, modeling the GOVPE decarbonization strategies, in addition to delivering benefits in terms of mitigating climate change, also proves to be an important vector for economic growth and job creation in the state in the long term, given the diversity of measures, sectors, magnitudes, and knowledge that clearly shows a need for multisectoral and multilevel action for implementing decarbonization [12]. This will require continued planning and investment in innovation to develop the technological solutions required to build a carbon-neutral future linked to increased quality of life for people and the planet.

Buylova et al. [18] argue that, from the process of formulating decarbonization strategies to their implementation, society’s participation is necessary to visualize more possibilities for long-term climate action to prevent states from limiting themselves to pre-conceived future paths for decarbonization and development without considering the vicissitudes of putting the proposed solutions into practice. This reinforces the need for case studies like ours to examine in more depth how long-term strategies are used to explore how different sources of information, networks, knowledge, and social pressures shape and influence these plans and policies in order to turn them into steering instruments rather than paper tigers.

Therefore, the next priority for the sustainable-development community should be to explore more concretely how measures to achieve environmental sustainability can substantially contribute to social and economic sustainability, especially regarding job creation. Grover and Rao [69] found evidence that activities promoted under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), as provided for in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, prompted reductions in inequality, poverty, and unemployment in Brazilian regions from 2000 to 2010, compared to Brazilian regions where no CDM projects had been present.

Moreover, many of these jobs may need to be created by governments through public funding. Traditional indirect job creation by promoting environmentally sustainable businesses is desirable, but this will probably not be sufficient.

The PIMADE methodology contributes to climate-governance debates by bridging the gap between policy design and implementation, a challenge underscored in the literature on multilevel governance [46,47,48,49]. However, its feasibility hinges on stable political support and institutional capacity, as observed in Pernambuco’s cross-sectoral coordination. Resource constraints, such as funding for the Carbon Neutral Committee, may limit scalability in low-capacity settings. Replicability requires adaptation to local governance structures; for instance, federalist systems may need stronger interjurisdictional alignment. Future research should explore PIMADE’s performance in politically fragmented or resource-scarce contexts to validate its broader applicability.

Based on the preceding discussion, this work advances the field by providing the following contributions:

(a) Theoretical contributions—Unlike previous reports in the literature which usually describe the use of SSM structure objectives and use of VFT to identify alternatives, in this article, we report the use of VFT to enable objectives to be structured and criteria to be prioritized, and the use of SSM to generate alternatives based on the understanding of the difficulties in achieving the identified objectives. This article also introduces a climate adaptation index associated with a mitigation index to prioritize decarbonization actions. Finally, this article expands the literature on implementing decarbonization strategies, an aspect that is still scarcely explored in the literature.

(b) Practical implications—The methodology proposed in this article facilitates the implementation of decarbonization strategies, which is reported in the literature as a major challenge. It enables the prioritization of these strategies considering their impact. Finally, the proposal can be applied by any subnational government that aims to meet climate goals.

6. Conclusions and Future Work

Although many articles have analyzed the content of decarbonization strategies, the processes by which decarbonization strategies are implemented have attracted less attention so far. The Process of Implementing and Monitoring Decarbonization Actions (PIMADE) in national and/or subnational states has been declared effective, as this has enabled public agents to begin implementing existing decarbonization strategies in an organized and integrated manner, with well-defined priorities, thus optimizing the use of resources that are already available. This shows that, in addition to creating feasible decarbonization strategies, support instruments must be created to put these strategies into practice so that each country can fulfill its NDC by taking its plans off the shelf.

This article contributes to the literature by highlighting the combined use of the VFT and SSM problem-structuring methods. This is different from previous studies that have utilized the SSM to structure objectives and VFT to generate alternatives. This article used VFT to list the orientation of objectives and the prioritization criteria based on the DM’s values. After defining the objectives, the SSM was adopted to identify problem situations and define relevant systems/roots to generate alternatives to address the barriers identified in the PDPE.

The PDPE is focused on reducing GHG emissions, i.e., mitigation. However, GOVPE is responsible for both mitigation and climate adaptation, with the aim of improving the population’s living conditions, considering the contradictory effects of climate change that have already affected the population of the State of Pernambuco. Due to this, as a practical implication of applying PIMADE, creating the climate adaptation index associated with the mitigation index in the process of prioritizing actions stands out.

Despite the contributions of PIMADE, one limitation of the methodology is it depends on there being an administrative structure to implement it, such as the creation of a Carbon Neutral Committee (CNC) and an Executive Decarbonization Group (GED), which may not work in unstable political contexts. One limitation of the application presented in this article is that only Steps 1, 2, and 3 of the methodology were applied, because of the restriction to one state secretariat.

Regarding the application of the proposed methodology, the following challenges should be considered:

(a) Establishing indicators to monitor the actions of government units and relating them to the DDS indicators.

(b) Ensuring that PIMADE is applied to all state secretariats mentioned in the plan, as in SEMAS.

(c) Implementing the Information System to monitor and follow up on decarbonization actions.

Furthermore, we consider it necessary to encourage new studies to conceptualize the characteristics and strategies that will lead to deep systemic decarbonization measures to address the climate emergency.