Impact of Climate Change on the Tourism Potential of Northeastern Brazil: Trend Analysis and Future Perspectives
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Dataset
2.3. Methodological Procedure
2.3.1. Climate Data Processing and Analysis
2.3.2. Zonal Risk Assessment
2.3.3. Proposing Adaptation Strategies
3. Results
3.1. Historical Data: Climate Data Processing and Analysis (1961–2019)
3.2. Zonal Risk Assessment and Climate Change Projection Trends
4. Discussion
4.1. Climate Change and Sustainable Tourism in the BNE: Hazards and Risks
4.2. Adaptation Measures for Climate-Related Risks in Sustainable Tourism in the BNE
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Cluster | Main Hazards | Risks for Tourism |
---|---|---|
Cluster 1 (Coastal Zone) | Coastal erosion; heatwaves, extreme rainfall; urban flooding; coastal flooding; sea level rise; sea surface temperature warming (impacting reefs and coastal ecosystems); increases in minimum and maximum air temperatures; ocean acidification; severe droughts in inland areas. | Severe damage to urban tourism and hotel infrastructure; recurring disruptions of tourism services due to extreme rainfall events and urban flooding; coastline retreat and beach loss; reduced tourist attractiveness of urban beaches and resorts; decline in the environmental quality of beaches and marine ecosystems; public health issues and thermal discomfort for tourists in urban centers caused by heatwaves; increased operational costs in the tourism sector; salinization of coastal aquifers; water supply crises, particularly in inland municipalities. |
Cluster 2 (Western zone) | Heat waves; extreme/intense rain; prolonged droughts. | Damage to rural and ecotourism infrastructure due to occasional intense rainfall events; risk of access disruptions to tourist destinations during periods of extreme rainfall and intensified droughts; reduced attractiveness of community-based and ecotourism activities due to climate variability (alternating extremes of drought and heavy rain); risk to local biodiversity, affecting natural attractions and ecotourism routes; increased risk of wildfires during prolonged dry periods. |
Cluster 3 (Sertão/Semi-arid zone) | Severe heatwaves; prolonged droughts; isolated intense rainfall (isolated but destructive events). | Critical reduction in water availability, directly affecting rural and cultural tourism; increased health risks for tourists and local communities due to intense heatwaves; increased risk of localized extreme rainfall events, leading to accelerated erosion and damage to access routes to tourist sites; gradual loss of tourism appeal due to environmental degradation and decreased thermal comfort; increased risk of wildfires during prolonged dry periods; loss of local biodiversity (Caatinga), reducing ecotourism and cultural attractiveness. |
Cluster 4 | Intense heatwaves; extreme rainfall (occasional flooding, especially in flood-prone areas); marked climate variability (shifts in dry and wet season cycles); coastal erosion; sea level rise; sea surface temperature warming (impacting reefs and coastal ecosystems). | Loss or degradation of coastal tourism infrastructure (due to coastal erosion and sea level rise); damage to infrastructure caused by extreme rainfall events and occasional flooding in urban and rural areas; reduction in the tourism potential of natural areas due to intensified climate extremes, affecting ecotourism and community-based tourism; direct economic impact from damage to tourist destinations vulnerable to climate variability; severe damage to coastal tourism infrastructure due to coastal erosion and sea level rise. |
Cluster 5 (South/Southeast of Bahia) | Heatwaves; intense rainfall and localized flooding; coastal erosion; sea level rise; sea surface temperature warming (impacting reefs and coastal ecosystems). | Loss of coastal and marine biodiversity (reefs, mangroves), reducing the attractiveness of ecotourism and beach tourism; increased risk of wildfires affecting tourist attractions in Atlantic Forest areas and nature reserves; impacts on tourism infrastructure due to coastal erosion, extreme rainfall, and localized flooding; gradual decline in environmental quality of beaches and reduced thermal comfort due to the combination of heatwaves and sea surface temperature rise. |
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Badiru, A.; Humaire, L.; Wanderley, L.S.d.A.; Matzarakis, A. Impact of Climate Change on the Tourism Potential of Northeastern Brazil: Trend Analysis and Future Perspectives. Sustainability 2025, 17, 5290. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125290
Badiru A, Humaire L, Wanderley LSdA, Matzarakis A. Impact of Climate Change on the Tourism Potential of Northeastern Brazil: Trend Analysis and Future Perspectives. Sustainability. 2025; 17(12):5290. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125290
Chicago/Turabian StyleBadiru, Ayobami, Lívia Humaire, Lucas Suassuna de Albuquerque Wanderley, and Andreas Matzarakis. 2025. "Impact of Climate Change on the Tourism Potential of Northeastern Brazil: Trend Analysis and Future Perspectives" Sustainability 17, no. 12: 5290. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125290
APA StyleBadiru, A., Humaire, L., Wanderley, L. S. d. A., & Matzarakis, A. (2025). Impact of Climate Change on the Tourism Potential of Northeastern Brazil: Trend Analysis and Future Perspectives. Sustainability, 17(12), 5290. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17125290