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Article

An Evaluation of the Robustness of Length-Based Stock Assessment Approaches for Sustainable Fisheries Management in Data and Capacity Limited Situations

by
Laurence T. Kell
1,*,† and
Rishi Sharma
2,†
1
Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Weeks Building, 16-18 Princes Gardens, London SW7 1NE, UK
2
Food and Agricultural Organization, Fishery and Aquaculture Division, 00153 Rome, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Sustainability 2025, 17(11), 4791; https://doi.org/10.3390/su17114791
Submission received: 18 March 2025 / Revised: 19 May 2025 / Accepted: 20 May 2025 / Published: 23 May 2025

Abstract

:
To ensure sustainability, the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries (EAF) requires the evaluation of the impacts of fisheries beyond the main targeted species, to include those on bycaught, endangered, threatened and protected populations and keystone species. However, traditional stock assessments require extensive datasets that are often unavailable for data-limited fisheries, particularly in small-scale settings or in the Global South. This study evaluates the robustness of length-based approaches for fish stock assessment by comparing simple indicators and quantitative methods using an age-structured Operating Model. Simulations were conducted for a range of scenarios, for a range of life-history types and recruitment and natural mortality dynamics. Results reveal that while length-based approaches can effectively track trends in fishing mortality, performance varies significantly depending on species-specific life histories and assumptions about key parameters. Simple indicators often matched or outperformed complex methods, particularly when assumptions about equilibrium conditions or natural mortality were violated. The study highlights the limitations of length-based methods for classifying stock status relative to reference points, but demonstrates their utility when used with historical reference periods or as part of empirical harvest control rules. The findings provide practical guidance for applying length-based approaches in data-limited fisheries management, ensuring sustainability in data and capacity situations.

1. Introduction

The prevention of overfishing and the recovery of overfished stocks is crucial to ensure sustainability. This requires assessments of fishery impacts not only on the primary commercially exploited stocks, for which analytical stock assessments are available, but also on secondary stocks that are retained for the market. In addition, the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries (EAF) requires an assessment of impacts on the broader ecosystem and mitigation of negative impacts on non-target species to maintain the balance of marine ecosystems. This includes bycatch and discarded stocks, endangered, threatened or protected (ETP) populations, and keystone or hub species [1,2]. The designation of ETP depends on national and international legislation intended to protect highly vulnerable species and may vary by jurisdiction. The Marine Stewardship Council (MSC [3]) also defines primary and secondary species. The former are species of commercial value for which there are management reference points, such as the biomass associated with Maximum Sustainable Yield ( B M S Y ). The latter are those that are not ETP nor managed according to reference points and may be retained if they are of market value or discarded if catches are undesired but unavoidable.
Traditional stock assessments conducted for the main commercially valuable stocks require extensive datasets that are often unavailable for small-scale fisheries, fisheries in the Global South, or for discarded species [4]. These limitations have driven significant efforts over the past two decades to develop data-limited approaches, such as biomass-based catch-only methods [5]. Catch-only methods were originally developed to provide a global assessment of stock status [6]. The provision of fisheries management advice also requires the assessment of stock status relative to reference points, the prediction of the response of a stock to management, the validation that the predictions are consistent with reality, and the updating of advice based on feedback about the state of the stock [7]. However, catch-only methods have been shown to exhibit notable biases, which limit their utility in fisheries management.
Effective fisheries management requires more than biomass-based assessments, since setting size limits and monitoring the size structure of fish stocks are critical to preventing overfishing in growth and recruitment [8,9]. Length-based data are often also more readily available than age or time series of catch and effort in data and capacity-limited situations. The analysis of the size distribution of fish in a population can reveal whether juvenile or mature individuals are being harvested disproportionately [10,11]. Growth overfishing occurs when juveniles are harvested before reaching their optimal size, reducing yield. Recruitment overfishing occurs when there are not enough mature individuals remaining to reproduce and replenish the population. Length-based methods and empirical indicators can be used to assess historical and current levels of exploitation using short time series of data and provide advice as part of harvest control rules (HCR) [12,13].
Model-based estimates are attractive because, by incorporating assumptions about stock productivity, they provide estimates of unobservable state variables, such as stock biomass and fishing mortality, along with analytical reference points. Empirical indicators, such as mean size or relative abundance, on the other hand, are easier for managers and stakeholders to understand. However, model-based estimators do not necessarily ensure more robust management, since they require assumptions that, if incorrectly specified, introduce bias.
In data and capacity-limited situations, with limited knowledge about key processes, such as natural mortality, recruitment, and fishery exploitation patterns, the focus is often on generic solutions. Therefore, verification is essential to ensure that the methods are implemented correctly and produce outputs consistent with their intended purpose. Validation is required to ensure that scientific advice is robust and credible [14], by evaluating whether it is plausible that a system equivalent to the model could have generated the observed data [15]. Methodological differences can introduce bias, where fixed parameters are uncertain or priors misspecified; therefore, calibration is necessary to align model estimates or empirical indicators with observed data to classify stocks as being overfished or subject to overfishing.
The use of techniques, such as cross-validation, which involve partitioning data into testing and training subsets, is problematic in data-limited situations with few observations. Therefore, we conduct a simulation using an Operating Model to represent the ‘true’ system. The Operating Model is conditioned on species with a range of life histories, and then an Observation Error Model is used to generate pseudo-data to test candidate length-based approaches.
The objectives of this study are to facilitate comparisons and integration of the results from different assessment approaches and to identify the impact of uncertainties on management advice in order to promote transparency in the scientific advice process and to ensure that management decisions are based on the best available science. The primary research questions are as follows: (i) How do simple indicators compare to complex methods in tracking exploitation trends? (ii) Which assumptions have the greatest impact on performance? (iii) How reliable are proxy reference points and the use of historical reference periods? (iv) What are the implications for implementing length-based methods in data-limited fisheries?

2. Materials and Methods

To ensure sustainability, it is necessary to monitor trends in exploitation and population health relative to reference levels [16]. These can be targets, limits, thresholds, or baselines [17]. Targets are to be achieved on average and limits are to be avoided with high probability, while thresholds trigger management action. Targets, limits, and thresholds are generally based on model-based quantities. Baselines, either based on model estimates or empirical quantities, are derived from historical periods when a stock was considered healthy, and can be used to monitor long-term or recovery plans [18,19].
Size data are potentially available from many fisheries and can provide either long-term trends or snapshots. If time series are unavailable, data from a single year, e.g., recovered from archives or from one-off sampling programmes, can be used to assess fisheries. Length data can also be used to develop community indicators and priors for stock assessment methods.
Various length-based approaches have been developed [20], from simple length-based indicators to sophisticated models that apply Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo, mixed-effects and maximum likelihood techniques [21,22]. The more complex methods are capable of integrating biological and fisheries information and estimating fishing mortality and reference points. However, the basic assumptions of all approaches are the same: the proportion of older and larger individuals is determined by the rate at which individuals grow and the level of mortality that determines how quickly they disappear from the population [10]. This requires knowledge of species- or stock-specific life histories.

2.1. Simulation Framework

Management Strategy Evaluation is a computationally intensive closed-loop framework that simulates feedback control rules by testing candidate Management Procedures against Operating Models that represent hypotheses about resource dynamics (Figure 1). This study employed open-loop simulations (omitting the harvest control rule and feedback) to screen length-based approaches, using pseudo-data generated by the Observation Error Model to compare their ability to assess fishing mortality relative to reference target fishing mortality reference points based on maximum sustainable yield ( F M S Y ).
To establish a theoretical foundation for formulating hypotheses regarding population dynamics, an age-structured Operating Model was implemented using life history theory conditioned on scenarios related to hypotheses about resource dynamics; the Observation Error Model then generates pseudo-data. This enables a sensitivity analysis to be conducted to assess the skill of length-based approaches and determine their robustness for a range of resource dynamics [23,24]. The analysis was performed using R statistical version 4.2.4 software using FLR [25], full details are provided in the (Appendix A).

2.1.1. Operating Model Conditioning

To evaluate robustness, a range of hypothetical but plausible Operating Model scenarios were conditioned that are likely to have major impacts on the performance of the approaches [26].
A reference case was defined and then scenarios representing the primary uncertainties (Table 1). The scenarios included the steepness of the stock-recruitment relationship, recruitment variability, natural mortality, selection pattern, and the level of measurement error. In all scenarios, the length-based approaches used the parameters specified in the Reference Case. This was conducted to ensure that the robustness of the methods was evaluated.

2.1.2. Life Histories

Case study species represent a variety of contrasting life histories, allowing a comparison of length-based approaches across a range of biological and ecological characteristics. Therefore, they exhibit a range of growth rates, maturity patterns, and natural mortality rates, chosen because they are familiar to the authors and are not intended to represent specific stocks. The species were sprat (Prattus sprattus sprattus), turbot (Posetta maxima), pollack (Pollachius pollachius), bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus), and thornback ray (Raja clavata). Life history parameters were obtained from FishBase (www.fishbase.org), and Figure 2 provides a summary of L , k, L 50 , and b; species are organized according to k. The bottom right panel illustrates the relative number of observations. Interspecific and intraspecific relationships are apparent, for example, L shows an inverse correlation with k and L 50 . A significant variation is observed in the condition factor of the length-weight relationship (b) for sprat. There are limited observations for pollack, indicating a high degree of uncertainty attributable to the reliance on FishBase data, which are often characterized by small sample sizes, restricted coverage, and the potential for life history parameters (such as maturity and growth) to be derived from different studies.
Natural mortality by age was based on length [27], and Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) was used as an indicator of a stock’s reproductive capability [28], assuming that fertilization depends on the mass of sexually mature individuals, regardless of the age structure of the adult population [29], and that factors like sexual maturity are age-dependent and unaffected by sex [30].

2.1.3. Fishery Dynamics

A double normal distribution modeled selectivity, allowing the simulation of asymptotic or dome-shaped selectivity. In the reference scenario, logistic selectivity was designed in accordance with the maturity ogive, ensuring that MSY reference points are consistent across various case studies.
The Operating Model Reference Cases for each species are summarized in Figure 3. The fishing pressure is initially low before increasing to twice F M S Y , management then reduces the fishing to 70% of F M S Y ; ribbons indicate the 95th percentile range along with the median and example Monte Carlo realizations.

2.2. Observation Error Model

Methods based on length can be biased with low precision due to uncertain life history parameters, time-lags in exploitation rates, shifts in fishery selection patterns, fluctuations in year-class strength, and non-random sampling. An observation error model was, therefore, used to generate pseudo-data with alternative characteristics.
A main source of variability in fish populations is the length at a given age; therefore, length data were generated using a Monte Carlo simulation to allow the evaluation of issues related to bias and the level of sampling. However, there is no consensus on how it should be modeled, e.g., as constant at length (standard deviation) or proportional to length (coefficient of variation), how it changes with age (constant, linear, or functional form), or even the shape of the distribution for a given age [31]. It may also vary by life history, being less variable for fast-growing tuna than for short-lived species such as sprat. The length-based methods tested in this study [21,22] assume a value of 10%, which has also been assumed in previous simulation studies (e.g., [20]). To generate size data, an inverse age-length key was applied to the catch-at-age generated by the Operating Model. Variations in length-at-age were incorporated by applying a normal distribution to the anticipated length-at-age with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 10%. The sampling was carried out proportionally to the appearance of an age class for a specified sample size.

2.3. Length-Based Approaches

Length-based methods range from simple empirical indicators, such as mean length, to more complex models that incorporate biological and fisheries information to estimate fishing mortality and reference points.

2.3.1. Indicators

The length-based indicator considered was L m e a n , the mean length of the individuals greater than the length at 50% of the modal abundance (> L c 50 ). The key parameters are L c , the length at which the fish are first vulnerable to capture by the fishing gear and L . The population is assumed to be in equilibrium, which means that the recruitment, growth, and mortality rates are constant over time. L m e a n can be used to evaluate exploitation relative to a proxy for F M S Y , such as the length at which fishing mortality is equal to natural mortality ( L F = M ).
A single realization of the Reference Case is shown in Figure 4 by species. The length frequencies are pooled by lustrum (5 years); the vertical line is L m e a n (see below). There are differences in the length frequency distributions before overfishing (year 60), the right-hand limbs contain larger individuals than under overfishing (year 100); although the biomass recovers when fishing pressure is reduced, the size structure does not recover (year 120).

2.3.2. Beverton and Holt Estimator

The Beverton and Holt Z estimator estimates the total instantaneous mortality rate (Z) based on the relationship between the length of fish that have been recruited to the fishery and mortality and assumes that growth follows the von Bertalanffy growth function [32].
Z = k ( L L ¯ ) ( L ¯ L )
where Z is the total instantaneous mortality rate, and L ¯ is the mean length of the fish in the catch above L , the length at which the fish are fully recruited into the fishing. It is assumed that the population is in equilibrium, that the selection for the fishery is knife-edged, and that mortality is constant for all fully recruited fish.

2.3.3. Length-Converted Catch Curve (LCC)

Instantaneous total mortality (Z) can be estimated using length-converted catch curve analysis (LCC, [33]). This assumes that as fish age, their growth rate decreases, causing larger size categories to include more age groups compared to smaller ones, a phenomenon referred to as the “stack-up” effect, thereby resulting in broader age ranges in larger size categories than in smaller ones.

2.3.4. Length-Based SPR (LBSPR)

LBSPR is based on equilibrium assumptions, including asymptotic selectivity, the von Bertalanffy growth model, normally distributed length-at-age, constant natural mortality across adult age groups, stable recruitment over time, and unchanging growth rates across different cohorts. LBSPR estimates the selectivity parameters and the ratio of fishing mortality to natural mortality ( F / M ) by maximizing the probability [22]. The method estimates fishing mortality (F), with natural mortality (M) fixed. The spawning potential ratio (SPR) is also estimated and is the fraction of the reproductive potential that remains unfished per recruit, based on a specific F, derived from the length composition of the catch and biological data.
Selectivity is assumed to be logistic, defined by S 50 and S 95 , the sizes at which 50% and 95% of a population are retained by the fishing gear. The maturity ogive is specified by L 50 and L 95 . Therefore, the inputs are the selectivity, maturity ogive and life history ratios M / k and L m / L ; where k is the von Bertalanffy growth coefficient, L is the asymptotic size and L m is the size at maturity [34].

2.3.5. Length-Based Integrated Mixed Effects (LIME)

LIME provides estimates of F and SPR from length data and biological information, but does not assume equilibrium conditions. LIME estimates changes in recruitment and fishing mortality over time, using automatic differentiation and Laplace approximations to calculate the marginal likelihood of mixed effects [21]. LIME estimates a single selectivity curve for the entire time series, while LBSPR estimates a selectivity curve for each year, since each time step in LBSPR is independent of the other.
Other assumptions are the same as for LBSPR and the inputs to LIME are M ,   k ,   L ,   t 0 ,   CV L ,   L 50 ,   L 95 , steepness (h) and the parameters of the length-weight relationship (a and b). In the simulations, we estimate F and S P R for 3-year blocks to reduce the computation time.

Proxy Reference Points

In data-limited cases, natural mortality (M) is commonly used as a proxy for F M S Y , the fishing mortality that will achieve the maximum sustainable yield [35]. Alternatively, L o p t , the length at which a cohort achieves its maximum biomass, approximated by 2 / 3 L , can be used as a proxy for F M S Y [36]. An advantage of using length is that it is an observable quantity, while M is difficult to estimate even in data-rich assessments [37].

Baselines

An alternative to proxy reference points based on assumptions about M is to use a historical reference period. Therefore, the classification skill was evaluated for a reference period, years 79 to 81, when the fishing mortality was at F M S Y .

3. Results

The indicator ( L m e a n ), the two legacy methods (LCC and BH), and the modern, more complex methods (LBSPR and LIME), are compared in Figure 5 for the Reference Case by species; the dashed line is the Operating Model values of F / F M S Y and the ribbons the 95th percentiles. All approaches follow trends in F, although species- and method-specific bias is apparent. L m e a n exhibits hyperstability, not showing the same level of variation as the Operating Model, and BH fails for sprat at higher F levels.
The different length-based approaches were validated by comparing their skill in classifying fishing mortality relative to F / F [ M S Y ] . As an example, the LBSPR estimates from the Reference Case are summarized in Figure 6. The first panel shows the distributions of F / F M S Y from LBSPR (i.e., the indicator) and the Operating Model; the indicator is biased as it underestimates the Operating Model values. The classification skill is assessed by comparing the estimates with the Operating Model, in the form of the confusion matrix, which summarizes the number of true positives (TP), false positives (FP), true negatives (TN) and false negatives (FN). The ability to identify positive and negative cases is measured by the indicators sensitivity ( T P R = T P T P + F N ) and specificity ( T N R = T N T N + F P ), respectively. An ideal indicator would have sensitivity and specificity equal to 1. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves plot the TPR against the false positive rate ( F P R = 1 T N R ). A perfect indicator would correctly classify all cases ( T P R = 1 and F P R = 0 ). Therefore, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) quantifies the classification skill; a perfect classifier would have an AUC of 1 and a random classifier 0.5. An ROC curve can be used for calibration to correct bias in reference levels, since the best discriminant threshold is the point with the shortest Euclidean distance to ( T P R = 1 , F P R = 0 ) ; the red dot shows the classification skill of the proxy reference point F M S Y and the blue dot the best value obtained by calibration. Calibration improves the best skill score (BSS) from 0.34 to 0.5.
The skill and robustness of the length-based approaches are summarized using the AUCs by approach, species, and scenario in Figure 7. A value of 0.5 is equivalent to a coin toss, and values close to 1 indicate excellent skill (Table 2), and the length-based approaches are ranked (left to right) by their median AUCs. 1 / L m e a n and LBSPR performed the best, and LIME the worst. This is particularly true for species with higher individual growth rates (k).
The scenarios represent a robustness test, as the length-based approach settings are based on the Reference Case. High steepness and low M improve performance even when M, a required input assumption for LIME and LBSPR, is misspecified. Although M is used as a proxy for F M S Y , this changes the reference level, and therefore, does not affect the AUC. Recruitment variability has an impact and increasing the CV reduces it, while auto-correlated errors improve classification skill.
The AUCs were used to screen and select the best-performing approaches. The methods with the best AUCs are L m e a n and LBSPR and were selected for the following analysis, and their TSS is summarized in Figure 8 and Table 3). Four options are available to provide advice: (i) use a proxy for F M S Y based on M, (ii) calibration by determining the best reference level, (iii) use a reference period where the stock was considered healthy, or (iv) evaluate trends/Trends derived from year-to-year changes in the five-year running mean to identify directional trends while reducing noise.
The performance of the proxies was poor, even when the assumptions were met (i.e., in the Reference Case). For sprat L m e a n only performed well if M was low, and there were more older individuals in the population; the performance was better for the LBSPR Reference Case. For turbot, L m e a n had at best moderate skill when immature individuals were caught and LBSPR if the steepness was equal to 0.9. When calibration was used to set the best reference level, performance improved. Performance was scenario-specific and species-specific, and so it is difficult to draw general conclusions about how to choose defaults and specify proxy reference points. The scenario had an effect, and low M and high steepness improved TSS, and fishing on immature individuals reduced TSS. Of the scenarios, fishing on immatures had a negative effect on turbot, but low M only affected ray. Calibration is likely to be difficult for data-poor stocks, where agreeing and weighting the plausibility of scenarios will be difficult. An easier option if historical data are available is to use a reference period, in which case performance across scenarios and life histories is similar to calibration.
An alternative to assessing state (relative to a proxy reference point, a calibrated reference level, or a historical period) is to assess trend, i.e., year-on-year changes. This performs better, is less affected by the choice of scenario, and is robust to uncertainty.

4. Discussion

Stock assessment has been criticized for the use of overly complex models that rely on poorly constrained parameters or arbitrary assumptions [38], and simpler models have been proposed as alternatives [39]. For example, length-based approaches are increasingly being used to assess and manage data- and capacity-limited fisheries. The performance of stock assessment models must be validated against independent observations rather than model outputs alone [7]. Therefore, this study used a simulation framework to validate length-based approaches using an Operating Model. None of the methods provided robust estimates of F M S Y for the scenarios evaluated. The classification skill was highest compared to a baseline reference period in which the health of the stock was known. In particular, LIME, even though it did not assume equilibrium conditions, exhibited the least reliable performance. These findings support the argument that an increase in model complexity does not necessarily translate into improved reliability or robustness.
Guidelines for length-based methods often emphasize the importance of ensuring that older fish are vulnerable to capture. However, length frequency distributions are influenced by multiple factors beyond the selection pattern, including the steepness of the stock-recruitment relationship and whether a population is declining or recovering. In depleted populations where recruitment potential is reduced (i.e., for low steepness), the absence of recruits (i.e., smaller fish) can be misinterpreted as reduced exploitation. Even when selection pattern assumptions are violated (is dome-shaped), trends can still be detected relative to a baseline. A challenge lies in accounting for shifts in spatial or temporal distribution that alter vulnerability to capture. Standardizing length-frequency data to mitigate potential biases introduced by such changes is essential for robust assessments.
It is crucial to distinguish between the reference points used for performance evaluation (e.g., F M S Y proxies) and control points that define management actions (e.g., as part of a harvest control rule). Proxy reference points based on assumed natural mortality (M) may introduce bias if M is poorly estimated. Instead, using historical reference periods, when stocks were at desirable levels, can provide more reliable benchmarks for management [40]. Empirical harvest control rules based on observable trends (e.g., mean size or relative abundance) are often easier for managers and stakeholders to understand compared to model-based rules. However, both approaches should be rigorously tested as a Management Procedure using Management Strategy Evaluation to ensure robustness under uncertainty.
There are three main components to consider when developing robust harvest control rules, namely state, trend, and variability or entropy. The state component provides an immediate response to current stock conditions, e.g., based on trigger reference points, enabling prompt management action. The trend component measures the rate of change, allowing the incorporation of recruitment trends or environmental changes into management decisions. Entropy reflects how controllable a stock is; for example, stocks with high natural mortality and recruitment variability are inherently less controllable than long-lived species with more stable age structures, and incorporating this component into a harvest control rule allows signal and noise to be balanced. Harvest control rules can integrate these three components based on either model-based estimates or empirical indicators, for instance, by weighting state and trend indicators based on the AUC and calibrating control points by maximizing the True Skill Statistic. This is analogous to PID (Proportional-Integral-Derivative) controllers in control theory, which offer a flexible and adaptive framework for fisheries management [41,42].

5. Conclusions

Length-based approaches offer potential for assessing and managing data-limited fisheries. However, the results of this study demonstrate that these methods face significant challenges in providing robust estimates of fishing mortality F relative to F M S Y . The use of historical reference periods, where the health of the stock is known, was found to be more reliable than relying on proxies based on uncertain parameters such as natural mortality. Simple indicators, such as the mean length ( L m e a n ), often outperformed more complex methods like LIME, especially in scenarios where key assumptions about resource dynamics were violated. This highlights that increasing the complexity of the model does not necessarily improve performance, and the careful selection of assessment methods that are tailored to the specific characteristics of each fishery is essential. In particular, a large bias can result from misspecification of M and selection pattern, which were species- and scenario-specific. Therefore, length-frequency data should be standardized to account for potential spatial or temporal shifts in stocks and fisheries.
The validation of length-based methods using Operating Models allows testing for a range of plausible scenarios (i.e., it is probable based on the available evidence and is logically coherent) and uncertainties that have a significant impact on the performance to ensure robustness before real-world application. Integrating length-based approaches with complementary methods, such as catch-only methods, could further improve the performance of data-limited assessments. The Operating Models applied here can also be used to develop harvest control rules, enabling the design and testing of management strategies. Ultimately, the success of length-based methods will depend on their alignment with fishery-specific needs and on maintaining transparency and simplicity in scientific advice. By addressing these considerations, method selection, data standardization, robust validation, and integration with other approaches, length-based methods can play a critical role in achieving sustainable fisheries management in data- and capacity-limited contexts.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization: L.T.K. and R.S.; Methodology: L.T.K. and R.S.; Software: L.T.K.; Validation: L.T.K. and R.S.; Formal analysis: L.T.K.; Investigation: L.T.K.; Resources: L.T.K.; Data curation: L.T.K.; Writing—original draft preparation: L.T.K.; Writing—review and editing: L.T.K. and R.S.; Visualization: L.T.K.; Supervision: L.T.K.; Project administration: R.S.; Funding acquisition: R.S. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

FAO Fish4ACP and RP funds for L.T.K. We acknowledge FAO and FISH4ACP funded by the EU for support of this project.

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Informed Consent Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

This study is based on simulations conducted using an age-structured Operating Model. No new empirical data were generated. The methods and code used for the simulations are publicly available on GitHub at [https://github.com/flrpapers/lengthbasedapproaches, (accessed on 19 May 2025)]. Researchers interested in replicating or extending this work can access all relevant materials there.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Abbreviations

The following abbreviations are used in this manuscript:
EAFEcosystem Approach to Fisheries
ETPEndangered, Threatened or Protected
MSCMarine Stewardship Council
MSEManagement Strategy Evaluation
OMOperating Model
OEMObservation Error Mode
MPManagement Procedure
HCRHarvest Control Rule
FLRFisheries Library in R
SSBSpawning Stock Biomass
SRPSpawner-Recruit Potential
MSYMaximum Sustainable Yield
BMSYBiomass at Maximum Sustainable Yield
FMSYFishing mortality at Maximum Sustainable Yield
LmeanMean length of individuals above a threshold
LcLength at first capture
Lc50Length at 50% capture probability
LF=MLength at which fishing mortality equals natural mortality
LoptLength at which cohort biomass is maximized
LmLength at maturity
L50Length at 50% maturity
L95Length at 95% maturity
S50Size at 50% selectivity
S95Size at 95% selectivity
CVCoefficient of Variation
CVLCoefficient of Variation in Length
BHBeverton and Holt estimator
LCCLength-converted Catch Curve
LBSPRLength-Based Spawning Potential Ratio
LIME  Length-based Integrated Mixed Effects
SPR  Spawning Potential Ratio
ROC  Receiver Operating Characteristic
TP  True Positive
FP  False Positive
TN  True Negative
FN  False Negative
TPR  True Positive Rate (Sensitivity)
TNR  True Negative Rate (Specificity)
FPR  False Positive Rate
AUC  Area Under the Curve
BSS  Best-Skill Score
TSS  True Skill Statistic

Appendix A. Simulation Framework

The simulation framework uses an Operating Model to describe resource dynamics and to generate pseudo-data, which are used by the candidate approaches. This allows indicators and estimates to be compared to known Operating Model values. The Operating Model also includes the Observation Error Model, which generates pseudo-observations to simulate fishery data. Although Operating Models are also used in Management Strategy Evaluation, a Management Procedure was not evaluated, i.e., a feedback loop was not included. Equations are provided below.

Appendix B. Operating Model

Operating models represent plausible alternative hypotheses about resource dynamics and may reflect the concerns of stakeholders. Involving stakeholders acknowledges that the sustainable management of fisheries must respect ecological, economic, and social objectives [43].
Stock assessments are commonly used to condition Operating Models; however, there is not always enough information to estimate model parameters (e.g., [37,44]), and alternative choices may provide equally good fits [45]. This affects management advice, as reference points are largely determined by fixed parameters and choices of natural mortality and steepness [46]. Other sources of uncertainty are model structure and process variability, e.g., recruitment [47]. Therefore, ensuring robustness requires performing select scenarios, for example, using hypotheses based on life history theory [48,49].

Appendix B.1. Scenarios

When conditioning an Operating Model, a number of scenarios that reflect the main uncertainties are agreed upon before running simulations. In this study, a reference case was first defined, and then a robustness set was developed to represent the main sources of uncertainty.
Instead of conditioning a number of Operating Models, an alternative is to implement a single scenario with priors that reflect parameter uncertainty; then, the outputs are comparable to posterior distributions in a Bayesian analysis [50]. A potential problem is the lack of consideration of variations in process and measurement error. Common practice is to condition a reference set, i.e., a limited set of scenarios, which include the most important uncertainties in the model structure, parameters, and data. These comprise alternative scenarios that have high plausibility, reflect the concerns of stakeholders, and are likely to have significant impacts on the performance of Management Strategies.

Appendix B.2. Conditioning

Life-history relationships were used to condition the Operating Models based on life-history relationships to allow Operating Models to be conditioned on ecological processes, of particular value in data-poor situations where knowledge and data are limited. The approach is also applicable in data-rich situations, as simulation testing an assessment procedure using a model conditioned on the same assumptions is not necessarily a true test of robustness.
To create the Operating Model, FLR [25] was used to parameterize an age-based equilibrium per-recruit model based on assumptions about growth, maturity and natural mortality-at-age. The per-recruit model was then combined with a stock-recruit relationship [51]. Life history parameters for growth, natural mortality and maturity were used to parameterize functional forms for weight (W), proportion mature (Q), natural mortality (M) and fishing mortality (F)-at-age. These were then used to calculate the spawner ( S / R ) and yield-per-recruit ( Y / R ). When combined with a stock-recruitment relationship [52], the equilibrium stock size is a function of fishing mortality (F). The equilibrium relationship was then turned into a dynamic model and projected forward.

Appendix B.2.1. Life History Processes

The parameters of the growth model k, L , t 0 , [32]; parameters a and b characterize the length-weight relationship, while the length at which 50% of the population reaches maturity is given by L 50 . Age-specific natural mortality was modeled based on length [27], and spawning stock biomass (SSB) served as an indicator of the reproductive potential of the population (SRP [28]). The study assumed that fecundity correlates with the weight-at-age of mature individuals, regardless of the adult demographic spread [29] and that maturity processes are primarily age-dependent and not influenced by sex [30].

Individual Growth

Growth in length was assumed to follow the Von Bertalanffy growth equation
L = L ( 1 e x p ( k ( t t 0 ) )
where k is the rate at which the rate of growth in length declines as the length approaches the asymptotic length L and t 0 is the hypothetical time at which an individual is of zero length.
Length is converted to mass using the length-weight relationship.
W = a L t b
where a is the condition factor and b is the allometric growth coefficient.

Maturity-at-Age

The proportion of mature-at-age is modeled by the logistic equation with three parameters: age at 50% ( a 50 ), 95% ( a 95 ) mature, and maturity as age approaches infinity.
f ( x ) = 0 if ( a 50 x ) / a 95 > 5 a if ( a 50 x ) / a 95 < 5 m 1.0 + 19 . 0 ( a 50 x ) / 95 ) otherwise

Natural Mortality

It is often assumed that the natural mortality in stocks under exploitation remains constant for each species, regardless of their body size. This assumption is crucial for models that focus on fish populations based on size and to forecast the effects of fisheries management strategies based on size, such as regulations concerning the size of the mesh [27]. However, direct estimates of instantaneous natural mortality made in controlled studies have been shown to vary by age [53]. Although M can sometimes be estimated within an assessment model, for example, where data from tagging provide information independent of fishing mortality rates. However, in most cases, M is derived from life-history relationships, e.g., based on size [54]. The large and ever-increasing literature on this subject is a reflection of uncertainty. Reference [27] in an empirical study showed that M is significantly related to body length, asymptotic length, and k. The temperature is not significant when k is included, since k itself is correlated with temperature, that is,
M = 0.55 L 1.61 L 1.44 k

Selection Pattern

Selectivity is influenced by the vulnerability to being caught and generally takes an asymptotic or dome-shaped form. In the asymptotic scenario, the selectivity initially increases with age or size before plateauing; in contrast, the dome-shaped selectivity decreases with age. The selectivity in fisheries varies due to differences in gear types, the timing and location of fishing activities, and the species’ biological characteristics. For example, if models incorrectly assume logistic selectivity for species caught using gill nets or hooks, estimates may be skewed because large fish that escape capture might be assumed to be caught. To accommodate both asymptotic and dome-shaped selectivity patterns, fisheries’ selectivity was modeled using a double normal distribution. In the base scenario, logistic selectivity was aligned with the maturity ogive, ensuring consistency of M S Y reference points between studies. The implications of altering selection patterns are well documented: fishing at sizes below or above L o p t (the length at which a cohort reaches peak biomass) decreases M S Y ; harvesting fish before achieving L 50 reduces F M S Y while increasing B M S Y because conserving older fish becomes essential.
The vulnerability of individuals to fishing was modeled by the selection pattern. For asymptotic selectivity, there is an initial increase with age or size, followed by a leveling off, whereas for domed-shaped selectivity, selectivity-at-age declines after reaching a maximum. Selectivity will differ between fisheries depending on gear characteristics, when and where the fishery operates, and the biology of the species. Fisheries selectivity was, therefore, modeled as a double normal, as this allowed both asymptotic and dome-shaped selectivity to be simulated. The double normal has three parameters that describe the age at maximum selection ( a 1 ), the rate at which the left-hand limb increases ( s l ) and the right-hand limb decreases ( s r ), which allows flat-topped or domed-shaped selection patterns to be chosen, i.e.,
f ( x ) = 2 ( a a 1 s l ) 2 , i f a < a 1 2 ( a a 1 s r ) 2 , i f a a 1

Stock Recruitment Relationship

The biomass of the spawning stock (S) is the sum of the products of the numbers of females, N, the proportion of mature-at-age, Q and their mean fecundity-at-age, G, which is taken to be proportional to their weight-at-age, i.e.,
S = i = 0 p N i Q i G i
In this study, fecundity-at-age is assumed to be proportional to biomass, and the sex ratio is assumed to be 1:1.
A Beverton and Holt stock-recruitment relationship [51] was assumed. This relationship is derived from a simple density-dependent mortality model in which the more survivors there are, the higher the mortality. It is assumed that the number of recruits (R) increases toward an asymptotic level ( R m a x ) as S increases, i.e.,
R = S a / ( b + S )
The relationship was reformulated in terms of steepness (h), virgin biomass (v) and S / R F = 0 . Steepness is the proportion of the expected recruitment produced at 20% of virgin biomass relative to virgin recruitment ( R 0 ) . However, there is often insufficient information to allow its estimation from stock assessment [55] and so scenarios were considered for different values of steepness, i.e., resilience to overfishing. Virgin biomass was set at 1000 Mt to allow comparisons between scenarios.
R = 0.8 R 0 h 0.2 S / R F = 0 R 0 ( 1 h ) + ( h 0.2 ) S

Appendix B.2.2. Equilibrium Analysis

The age-based Operating Model used an equilibrium analysis to integrate a stock-recruitment relationship with a spawning stock biomass and a yield-per-recruit analysis. For any given fishing mortality rate, the corresponding biomass of the spawning stock (S) per recruit (R) is derived as S / R , conditional on the assumed growth, natural mortality and age-specific selection pattern.
S / R = i = 0 p 1 e j = 0 i 1 F j M j W i Q i + e i = 0 p 1 F i M i W p Q p 1 e F p M p
When the value of S / R obtained is inverted and superimposed on the stock-recruitment function as a slope ( R / S ), the intersection of this slope with the stock-recruitment function defines an equilibrium level of recruitment. When this value of recruitment is multiplied by the yield per recruit calculated for the same fishing mortality rate, the equilibrium yield associated with the fishing mortality rate emerges [56].
Y / R = a = r n 1 e i = r a 1 F i M i W a F a F a + M a 1 e F i M i + e i = r n 1 F n M n W n F n F n + M n
The second term is the plus-group, i.e., the summation of all ages from the last age to infinity.

Appendix B.2.3. Projection

The stock-recruitment relationship and the vectors of weight, natural mortality, maturity, and selectivity-at-age allow a forward projection model to be created, which forms the basis of the Operating Model.
N t , a = R t , if a = 0 , N t 1 , a 1 e Z t 1 , a 1 , if 1 a A 1 , N t 1 , A 1 e Z t 1 , A 1 + N t 1 , A e Z t 1 , A , if a = A ,
where N t , a is the number of fish of age a at the beginning of year t, R t is the total number of recruits born in year t. Here, A is the so-called plus group age, which is an aggregate age greater than or equal to the actual age A.

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Figure 1. Management Strategy Evaluation Framework. In this study, feedback was not implemented, i.e., the harvest control rule was not simulated.
Figure 1. Management Strategy Evaluation Framework. In this study, feedback was not implemented, i.e., the harvest control rule was not simulated.
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Figure 2. Life history parameters, colours distinguish species which are ordered from left to right by the von Bertalanffy growth coefficient (k); the lower right panel summarizes the number of observations.
Figure 2. Life history parameters, colours distinguish species which are ordered from left to right by the von Bertalanffy growth coefficient (k); the lower right panel summarizes the number of observations.
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Figure 3. Operating model simulations by species for the Reference Case. These show fishing mortality, recruitment, spawning stock biomass, and yield relative to MSY reference points. Fishing intensity is initially low, then increases to twice F M S Y , before a management intervention reduces fishing to 70% of F M S Y . The ordering of stocks is by the individual growth coefficient k, ribbons indicate the 95th percentile range along with median and example Monte Carlo realizations (red).
Figure 3. Operating model simulations by species for the Reference Case. These show fishing mortality, recruitment, spawning stock biomass, and yield relative to MSY reference points. Fishing intensity is initially low, then increases to twice F M S Y , before a management intervention reduces fishing to 70% of F M S Y . The ordering of stocks is by the individual growth coefficient k, ribbons indicate the 95th percentile range along with median and example Monte Carlo realizations (red).
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Figure 4. Length frequency distributions from a single Monte Carlo simulation for the Reference Case. The average length is indicated by L m e a n .
Figure 4. Length frequency distributions from a single Monte Carlo simulation for the Reference Case. The average length is indicated by L m e a n .
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Figure 5. Estimates of F / F M S Y from the length-based approaches, the dashed line represents Operating Model estimates of F / F M S Y , and red line the Operating Model values.
Figure 5. Estimates of F / F M S Y from the length-based approaches, the dashed line represents Operating Model estimates of F / F M S Y , and red line the Operating Model values.
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Figure 6. Classification skill of an indicator relative to the Operating Model. (i) Distributions of the indicator (blue) and operating model (red) values, with vertical lines indicating classification thresholds, (ii) Confusion matrix plot showing true positives (TP), false positives (FP), true negatives (TN), and false negatives (FN), with calculated True Skill Statistic (TSS = 0.34) and Balanced Skill Score (BSS = 0.5); (iii) Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve illustrating the trade-off between true positive rate (sensitivity) and false positive rate (1-specificity), with the area under the curve (AUC = 0.81) indicating overall classification performance.
Figure 6. Classification skill of an indicator relative to the Operating Model. (i) Distributions of the indicator (blue) and operating model (red) values, with vertical lines indicating classification thresholds, (ii) Confusion matrix plot showing true positives (TP), false positives (FP), true negatives (TN), and false negatives (FN), with calculated True Skill Statistic (TSS = 0.34) and Balanced Skill Score (BSS = 0.5); (iii) Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve illustrating the trade-off between true positive rate (sensitivity) and false positive rate (1-specificity), with the area under the curve (AUC = 0.81) indicating overall classification performance.
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Figure 7. Area under the ROC curve by species and management scenario.
Figure 7. Area under the ROC curve by species and management scenario.
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Figure 8. True skill score analysis for F / F M S Y across species and scenarios.
Figure 8. True skill score analysis for F / F M S Y across species and scenarios.
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Table 1. Parameters used in the Operating Model and their impact on key stock assessment metrics. This table demonstrates how changes in growth, maturity, and mortality parameters affect the assessment outputs. (✔ indicates where a parameter is required by a specific approach).
Table 1. Parameters used in the Operating Model and their impact on key stock assessment metrics. This table demonstrates how changes in growth, maturity, and mortality parameters affect the assessment outputs. (✔ indicates where a parameter is required by a specific approach).
CategoryParameter       L F = M      L Mean   BHLCC  LBSPR  LIME
Growth L -
k--
t 0 -----
C V ( L ) -----
C V ( L ) -----
Mortality (M)Mean----
Exponent-----
Maturity L 50 -----
Selectivity S 50 ----
S 95 ----
Shape----Logistic
Table 2. Summary of Operating Model Scenarios with Reference Case values highlighted. This table outlines the key parameters and assumptions used in the Operating Model to simulate different fishery management scenarios.
Table 2. Summary of Operating Model Scenarios with Reference Case values highlighted. This table outlines the key parameters and assumptions used in the Operating Model to simulate different fishery management scenarios.
ParameterValues
Steepness (H)0.7 (Reference Case), 0.8, 0.9
Recruitment VariabilityLow, Medium, High
Natural Mortality (M)0.2, 0.25, 0.3
SelectivityShifted, Logistic, Domed
Sample Size50, 100, 150
Table 3. AUC and TSS Categories.
Table 3. AUC and TSS Categories.
AUC Categories
QualityRange
Fail ( 0 , 0.6 )
Fair [ 0.6 , 0.7 )
Good [ 0.7 , 0.9 )
Excellent [ 0.9 , 1.0 )
TSS Categories
QualityRange
Negative ( 1.0 , 0.0 )
None [ 0.0 , 0.2 )
Low [ 0.2 , 0.4 )
Moderate [ 0.4 , 0.6 )
High [ 0.6 , 1.0 )
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Kell, L.T.; Sharma, R. An Evaluation of the Robustness of Length-Based Stock Assessment Approaches for Sustainable Fisheries Management in Data and Capacity Limited Situations. Sustainability 2025, 17, 4791. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17114791

AMA Style

Kell LT, Sharma R. An Evaluation of the Robustness of Length-Based Stock Assessment Approaches for Sustainable Fisheries Management in Data and Capacity Limited Situations. Sustainability. 2025; 17(11):4791. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17114791

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kell, Laurence T., and Rishi Sharma. 2025. "An Evaluation of the Robustness of Length-Based Stock Assessment Approaches for Sustainable Fisheries Management in Data and Capacity Limited Situations" Sustainability 17, no. 11: 4791. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17114791

APA Style

Kell, L. T., & Sharma, R. (2025). An Evaluation of the Robustness of Length-Based Stock Assessment Approaches for Sustainable Fisheries Management in Data and Capacity Limited Situations. Sustainability, 17(11), 4791. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17114791

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