Assessment of Shallow Geothermal Development Potential Based on the Entropy Weight TOPSIS Method—A Case Study of Guizhou Province
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Methodology
3.1. Construction of Geothermal Evaluation Index System in Different Regions
3.2. Construction of a Geothermal Evaluation Index System for Projects in the Guizhou Region
Target Level | Standard Floor | Indicator Layer | Index Trend | Source of Data |
---|---|---|---|---|
Development potential of shallow geothermal energy in Guizhou | Environmental dimension B1 | Gross floor area C1/m2 | + | [61] |
Heating and cooling area C2/m2 | + | [61] | ||
Economic dimension B2 | Gas price C3/CNY/m3 | − | [58] | |
Heat generated per CNY C4/kW/CNY | + | [58] | ||
Cost per kilowatt of heat C5/CNY/kW | − | [58] | ||
Initial investment cost C6/10,000 CNY | − | [46] | ||
Payback period C7 | − | [46] | ||
Technical aspects B3 | Total summer cooling load at ground source side C8/kW | + | [60] | |
Total winter heat load at ground source side C9/kW | + | [60] | ||
Maximum load C10/kW | + | [60] | ||
Extended meter heat transfer C11/W/m | + | [60,63] |
3.3. Introduction to Entropy Weights and TOPSIS Models
3.4. SWOT Analysis
3.5. Case Study of Guizhou Province
4. Results
4.1. Entropy Weighted TOPSIS Model Measurement Results
4.2. SWOT Analysis and Recommendations for Different Regions and Guizhou Province
4.3. Detailed Comparison of Projects in Central and Southwest China
4.4. Assessment of Economic Benefits
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Northeast China | North China | East China | South China | Southwest China | Northwest China | Central China | Indicator Trend | Source of Data | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Land-based heat flow data registrations | 159 | 539 | 538 | 144 | 242 | 582 | 136 | + | [41,42,43,44] |
Average summer temperature (°C) | 22.2 | 23.5 | 28.3 | 28.5 | 22.4 | 20.9 | 28.2 | + | [51] |
Average winter temperature (°C) | −8.7 | −1.9 | 7.9 | 17.2 | 6.4 | −2.4 | 7.6 | − | [51] |
Precipitation (mm/year) | 644.2 | 512.8 | 1260.3 | 1606.8 | 846.7 | 417.3 | 1260.3 | + | [52] |
Electricity price (CNY/kWh) | 0.583 | 0.592 | 0.659 | 0.630 | 0.481 | 0.402 | 0.630 | − | [53] |
Population density (persons/km2) | 121 | 285 | 536 | 429 | 225 | 31 | 400 | + | [54] |
Proportion of newly built shallow geothermal building area | 0.004799171 | 0.010735447 | 0.002134362 | 0.002953675 | 0.003817887 | 0.002475544 | 0.004559984 | + | [55,56] |
Project | Project Location | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 | C6 | C7 | C8 | C9 | C10 | C11 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
A | Zunyi City, Guizhou Province | 110,000 | 75,003 | 4.11 | 2.433 | 0.411 | 7600 | 0.56296 | 7200 | 6300 | 7300 | 53 |
B | Renhuai City, Guizhou Province | 73,644 | 58,868 | 4.11 | 2.433 | 0.411 | 3438 | 0.32131 | 5200 | 5500 | 5500 | 50 |
C | Liupanshui City, Guizhou Province | 67,413 | 569,433 | 4.73 | 2.114 | 0.473 | 5400 | 0.40329 | 6500 | 6890 | 4950 | 55.2 |
D | Guiyang City, Guizhou Province | 105,000 | 85,000 | 4.17 | 2.398 | 0.417 | 3450 | 0.4589 | 3592 | 3926 | 3926 | 50 |
District (Not Necessarily a Formal Administrative Unit) | Closeness | Arranged in Order |
---|---|---|
Northeast China | 0.27726861 | 7 |
North China | 0.59237353 | 1 |
East China | 0.49450098 | 2 |
South China | 0.39092218 | 4 |
Southwest China | 0.34761606 | 6 |
Northwest China | 0.48099566 | 3 |
Central China | 0.38431618 | 5 |
Advantage (S) | Weaknesses (W) | |
East China boasts 538 land heat flow registers, forming a solid geothermal base. Its high population density generates strong energy demand and vast market potential, enabling large-scale geothermal development. | In East China, the relatively high electricity price increases the operating costs of geothermal heating projects, weakens their market competitiveness, and limits the large-scale promotion of shallow geothermal energy. | |
Opportunities (O) | SO Strategy | WO Strategy |
It has the highest overall development potential among the different regions and is the policy support from the central government; with the “dual carbon” target, society’s demand for clean energy will continue to grow. | With rich geothermal resources and high energy demand in East China, the company, backed by policies, expands shallow geothermal development. Through demonstration projects, it aims to capture market share and promote regional development. Aligning with the “dual-carbon” goal and local advantages, it will focus on shallow geothermal development to attract industrial clustering. | To tackle high electricity costs hindering East China’s shallow geothermal development, we will seek government subsidies, strengthen domestic and international tech cooperation, drive joint R&D with local partners, cultivate talent, and boost technological self-sufficiency. |
Threat (W) | ST Strategy | WT Strategy |
As the clean energy market grows, new energy technologies emerge, competing with shallow geothermal energy in some regions. Despite favorable overall resources in East China, complex local geology raises exploration and development challenges, costs, and risks. | Facing competition from other new energy sources, the weather-independent and stable advantages of shallow geothermal energy are leveraged to offer differentiated services, expanding market share. Resource and market strengths are utilized to boost investment in geological exploration and development technology, enhancing project reliability and stability. | To address cost risks from high electricity prices and complex geology, we have tightened cost management and optimized project design and construction to cut expenses. We have also ramped up tech innovation investment, sharing achievements and reducing R&D costs through cooperation to boost industry resilience and market edge. |
Advantage (S) | Weaknesses (W) | |
Southwest China has significant geothermal resources. The favorable electricity price reduces the operating costs of shallow geothermal heating projects, enhancing the market competitiveness of shallow geothermal energy. | The region lags in shallow geothermal energy development. Low population density shrinks the market, and the local climate offers no thermal advantage, weakening geothermal demand. | |
Opportunities (O) | SO Strategy | WO Strategy |
Southwest China, rich in tourism resources, sees clean energy heating/cooling demand in scenic spots and towns. With strong provincial policies and the “dual-carbon” goal driving clean energy demand, it can seize the opportunity to accelerate energy transition. | With its geothermal resource base, policy support, and 242 land-based heat flow data registrations, Southwest China should leverage these strengths, develop a specialized shallow geothermal energy plan, integrate geothermal development with tourism, and expand the industrial and commercial shallow geothermal market using its electricity price cost advantage. | Utilize policy support to address development gaps, seeking more financial subsidies and tax incentives. Leverage policy advantages to actively introduce advanced domestic and foreign shallow geothermal development technologies and management experience, establishing cooperation mechanisms to reduce external dependencies. Strengthen publicity to enhance public awareness and acceptance, cultivating market demand. |
Threats | ST Strategy | WT Strategy |
To tackle weak tech and market competition, increase R&D investment, and encourage joint research. For complex geology and talent scarcity, establish a risk-prevention mechanism, strengthen surveys, and pre-assess risks. To expand the market, target surrounding areas, cooperate with neighbors, and export technologies and services. | Southwest China should capitalize on the weather-resilience and high stability of shallow geothermal energy, promoting it in areas with high energy-stability demands. Leveraging its geothermal resource advantages, it should increase investment in geological exploration and development technologies. For complex geology, conduct targeted research and employ advanced survey techniques. Also, utilize favorable electricity prices to optimize the energy cost structure of shallow geothermal projects. | To address weak technology and market competition, it boosts R&D investment and promotes joint research between enterprises and institutions. Facing complex geology and talent shortages, it sets up a risk control mechanism, beefs up geological surveys, and anticipates geological risks. To expand the limited market, it actively reaches out to surrounding areas, collaborates with neighboring provinces, and exports shallow geothermal technologies and services to widen the market reach and boost industry influence. |
Advantage (S) | Weaknesses (W) | |
Guizhou has a solid foundation of shallow geothermal resources, with its electricity price offering a cost-effective edge. Boasting abundant tourism resources, it also holds significant market potential. Moreover, the province’s policies provide robust support, all of which contribute to favorable conditions for shallow geothermal energy development. | In Guizhou, low population density in some areas reduces demand, hindering large-scale development. Its mild climate reduces geothermal heating and cooling needs. Complex topography raises development difficulty and costs. Additionally, talent attraction and retention are challenging, with heavy reliance on external tech and talent and weak independent innovation. | |
Opportunities (O) | SO Strategy | WO Strategy |
Driven by the “double carbon” goal, the demand for clean energy is rising. Guizhou can leverage this to speed up energy transformation. With neighboring provinces needing clean energy, Guizhou can expand into those markets. Moreover, as the nation focuses more on Southwest energy development, Guizhou stands to gain more resources and policy support. | Leverage Guizhou’s abundant geothermal resources and policy support to create a provincial shallow geothermal development plan with defined goals and routes. Integrate shallow geothermal development with tourism, capitalizing on the province’s rich tourist resources. Use the electricity price cost advantage to expand the shallow geothermal market, attracting enterprises across sectors. Seize the national support for Southwest energy development. | Actively strive for more financial subsidies and tax incentives to reduce development costs; take advantage of the policy to introduce advanced shallow geothermal development technology and management experience at home and abroad and cultivate local technical talents; increase the publicity and promotion of shallow geothermal energy; improve the awareness and acceptance of residents and enterprises; and cultivate local market demand. |
Threat (T) | ST Strategy | WT Strategy |
Competition in the clean energy market is fierce; complex terrain increases the difficulty and risk of shallow geothermal development, which may encounter technical difficulties and difficulties in attracting and retaining talent, leading to a shortage of talent. | Exploit the high stability of shallow geothermal energy to expand the market for Guizhou’s data centers. Conduct targeted geological research on Guizhou’s complex terrain, using advanced exploration tech to boost efficiency. Leverage electricity prices to optimize project energy costs and increase competitiveness. Strengthen cooperation with neighboring provinces to integrate resources and enhance the overall competitiveness of the regional shallow geothermal industry. | Boost R&D investment, and encourage enterprise–research institute collaborations to develop terrain-adaptive tech, reducing risks. Intensify geological surveys, pre-assess risks, and plan contingencies. Offer preferential policies to attract, retain, and cultivate talent. Strengthen cross-provincial cooperation and export tech and services to expand market reach and industry influence. |
Norm | Dongying District Project, East China | Guiyang City Project, Southwest China |
---|---|---|
Total building area m2 | 252,400 | 105,000 |
Gas price CNY/m3 | 4.28 | 4.17 |
Total heat load kW | 20,598 | 3926 |
Project investment, CNY million | 5100 | 3450 |
Coal saving t | 8800 | 2520 |
Carbon dioxide emissions t | 21,600 | 6405 |
Other business directions | Heating of agricultural facilities | not have |
Ground Source Heat Pump Operating Costs in the Guizhou Science and Technology Park in Guizhou Province | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vintages | Operating Mode | Running Time (h) | Power Consumption (kW/h) | Electricity (CNY) | Water Consumption (tonnes) | Water Charges (yuan) | Maintenance Overheads (CNY) | Total Cost (CNY) | Air-Conditioned Area (m2) | Running Time (months) | Operating Unit Cost (CNY/month/m2) |
2019 | Refrigeration | 760 | 1,132,932 | 1,146,225 | 776 | 3647.2 | 410,000 | 971,248.86 | 47,200 | 2.5333 | 2.5 |
Heat production | 1706 | 373,978.6 | 411,376 | 5.6866 | |||||||
2020 | Refrigeration | 3396.5 | 333,401 | 366,741 | 195 | 916.5 | 410,000 | 1,711,480.6 | 79,600 | 4.7173 | 1.95 |
Heat production | 4560 | 848,930 | 933,283 | 6.3333 | |||||||
2021 | Refrigeration | 2010 | 111,389 | 122,528 | 283 | 1330.1 | 580,000 | 1,241,556.7 | 79,600 | 2.8 | 2.51 |
Heat production | 2464.5 | 488,817 | 537,699 | 3.4229 |
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Deng, Y.; Chen, M.; Hu, Y. Assessment of Shallow Geothermal Development Potential Based on the Entropy Weight TOPSIS Method—A Case Study of Guizhou Province. Sustainability 2025, 17, 4312. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17104312
Deng Y, Chen M, Hu Y. Assessment of Shallow Geothermal Development Potential Based on the Entropy Weight TOPSIS Method—A Case Study of Guizhou Province. Sustainability. 2025; 17(10):4312. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17104312
Chicago/Turabian StyleDeng, Yiqirui, Mengyu Chen, and Yujie Hu. 2025. "Assessment of Shallow Geothermal Development Potential Based on the Entropy Weight TOPSIS Method—A Case Study of Guizhou Province" Sustainability 17, no. 10: 4312. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17104312
APA StyleDeng, Y., Chen, M., & Hu, Y. (2025). Assessment of Shallow Geothermal Development Potential Based on the Entropy Weight TOPSIS Method—A Case Study of Guizhou Province. Sustainability, 17(10), 4312. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17104312