Simplified Multi-Hazard Assessment to Foster Resilience for Sustainable Energy Infrastructure on Santa Cruz Island, Galapagos

Abstract

This study analyzes the clean energy infrastructure resilience on Santa Cruz Island, located in the Galapagos archipelago, facing identified multi-natural hazard scenarios such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and extreme weather events. Although Santa Cruz Island has a relatively modern energy infrastructure, its geographic location and lack of clear emergency management actions would significantly affect its performance. Risk assessment components, such as exposure and vulnerability, are also analyzed, highlighting the need for strategic interventions to ensure the continuity of energy supply and other essential services. Proved methodologies are used to propose action plans, including structural and non-structural solutions and simulations based on disaster scenarios. As a result, a series of strategies are revealed to strengthen the response and adaptation capacity of both critical infrastructure and the local community. These strategies hold the potential to ensure the island’s long-term energy security and sustainability, reducing its carbon footprint and instilling hope for a resilient future.

1. Introduction

Coastal locations and volcanic islands are highly vulnerable environments where natural hazards often occur simultaneously. These hazards can cause cascading effects that can cause extreme damage to critical infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, and energy transmission and distribution networks, among others. Thus, assessing the vulnerability and risk level is essential to achieve resilience in infrastructure. For instance, the study in [1] examines the current application of the multi-hazard approach in risk management systems, focusing on volcanic islands’ exposure to multiple hazards and their potential impacts. The study in [2] outlines the design, development, and application of a conceptual framework for assessing the vulnerability of integrated coastal elements in the Canary Islands. The study in [3] focuses on identifying areas highly vulnerable to earthquake, flood, and landslide hazards using Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing.

The Galapagos Islands, which belong to Ecuador, are located in the Pacific Ocean, 972 km from the continental coast. This archipelago consists of over two hundred islets, rocks, and islands of varying sizes. Only four islands are inhabited: San Cristóbal, Santa Cruz, Isabela, and Floreana [4]. Due to their relative isolation, the Galapagos Islands are home to diverse ecosystems and many unique species of plants and animals, making them a significant global tourist attraction. In this regard, Santa Cruz Island is the most inhabited island in the archipelago.

Santa Cruz Island, located in the heart of the Galapagos archipelago (see Figure 1 [5]), is one of the most important islands in both ecological and socioeconomic terms [6]. The population is growing, according to the latest INEC census in 2015, and has reached 17,678 inhabitants in the urban and rural areas. Of these, more than 12,000 residents live in Puerto Ayora [7], one of the island’s most important cities, and it houses its main port, which is crucial for developing commercial and tourist activities [8]. The demand for energy in Santa Cruz has increased significantly in recent years, which has prompted the search for new self-sustaining and bio-friendly alternatives [9]. However, this region faces a series of natural threats that put its infrastructures at risk, especially those related to generating clean energy (e.g., solar, wind, etc.) [10].

The island’s natural hazards include earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and extreme weather events such as El Niño [11]. These events threaten human life and biodiversity but can also cause severe damage to critical infrastructure, including power generation and distribution systems [12]. To mitigate these risks, it is essential to implement planning and design strategies that strengthen existing structures and improve the disaster response and recovery capacity, ensuring the safety and well-being of the population and the environment [13].

Vulnerable regions, particularly those at high risk, face unique challenges in implementing clean energy. For example, a study in Nigeria [14] highlights that the transition to renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, is crucial for environmental sustainability and the social and economic progress of the population. Furthermore, research in various Caribbean and Pacific islands has demonstrated that the transition to clean energy sources reduces their carbon footprint and minimizes the dependence on imported fossil fuels, improving the overall functioning of the energy system [15]. Even though these infrastructures are susceptible to damage from severe weather events, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IREA) [16] highlights that energy solutions must be adaptable and robust to face adverse conditions. Furthermore, community participation and government support are crucial for the long-term success of these initiatives.

Moreover, resilience has been defined in different ways over time, as shown in [17], in which it is defined as a system attribute characterized by the ability to recover from challenges or disruptive events. However, as mentioned in [18], the concepts of infrastructure vulnerability and risk management must be differentiated from the concepts of resilience to facilitate analysis and clarify the most crucial areas for future progress. In this regard, considering critical infrastructure analysis, the work detailed in [19] explores the adverse effects of climate change on renewable power systems, highlighting that modern power system infrastructures have become more exposed to the environment. This study proposes the formation of microgrids to achieve cutting-edge climate resilience. Furthermore, the study in [20] investigated an integrated assessment that identifies risk sources and considers the time-dependent nature of resilience to evaluate the impacts of seismic events on critical electric power infrastructure.

However, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, no work has been developed that addresses the vulnerability of and risks to the critical infrastructure of the Galapagos Islands, which, due to their particular characteristics, make them unique worldwide.

Currently, Santa Cruz Island has some renewable energy sources, such as photovoltaic panels, and it is also supplied by the Baltra Island wind and photovoltaic park, which contributes to the energy demand of both islands [4,21,22]. This entire design represents the best technical, economic, and environmental alternative, but its generation is significantly lower than the electricity production from burning fossil fuels. This dependence is expensive and polluting, increasing the island’s vulnerability to supply interruptions [22,23].

This study considers that resilience is fundamentally based on robust multi-hazard-based assessments of the critical power infrastructure vulnerability and risks. Therefore, this study proposes strategies to foster resilience for clean energy infrastructure on Santa Cruz Island, based on studies from countries such as Japan and New Zealand that have developed advanced models of resilience to natural disasters, such as tsunami walls, buildings resistant to large earthquakes, and sophisticated drainage systems to combat flooding, which have incorporated innovative technologies and integrated policies that ensure the continuity of energy supply [24]. The strategies are based on theoretical and practical research, using revised risk analysis tools, simulations, and consultations with local and international experts. With this, it is intended to contribute significantly to developing resilient infrastructures in highly vulnerable areas on Santa Cruz Island, promoting a balance between technological advancement and environmental conservation, in line with global sustainable development goals (SDGs) 3, 7, 9, and 11. Furthermore, this study could be a reference for volcanic islands, such as Hawaii and the Azores, with comparable natural hazard risk profiles [1].

The rest of this paper is organized according to the flow chart shown in Figure 2: Section 2 presents the methodology applied to develop this work. Section 3 presents the risk, exposure, and vulnerability results for the Puerto Ayora, Bellavista, and Baltra communities achieved after processing the material according to the proposed methodology. Section 4 discusses the obtained findings. Finally, Section 5 summarizes the main conclusions of this work.

2. Methods

According to the analysis by Stuberova and Hromada [25], strengthening resilience in critical energy infrastructure is essential due to the growing dependence on these infrastructures and the impacts of disruptive events. They propose five basic principles: the identification of the element of interest, risk assessment, the definition of the scenario, the assessment of resilience, and the selection of tools to strengthen resilience.

These models have shown that the application of tools such as matrices to strengthen resilience is of great help for the sustainable and effective development of electric power infrastructure, and they can not only be applied to that field but have been adapted and modified for different contexts, showing the importance of a customized approach for each region. Therefore, this plan included the following:

• Threat and vulnerability analysis, identifying and assessing natural threats specific to the region and their potential impact on energy infrastructure.
• The design of technical solutions and mitigation strategies.
• The development of infrastructure and technologies that can withstand extreme conditions, such as hybrid systems and energy storage.
• Strengthening institutional and community capacities. The training and preparation of the community and local authorities to manage and respond to emergencies.
• The implementation of appropriate policies and regulations. Proposals for policies that promote resilience and sustainability in developing energy infrastructure.

This integrated approach not only sought to ensure the security and sustainability of energy infrastructure on Santa Cruz Island but also aimed to serve as a replicable model for other regions with similar conditions. This proposal was not a solitary endeavor but a collaborative effort that invited the participation of all stakeholders. The success of El Hierro Island in Spain, which has achieved almost 100% electricity supplied from renewable sources, combining wind and hydroelectric energy with energy storage systems, is a testament to the power of collaboration [26]. These projects demonstrate that designing resilient and sustainable solutions in island contexts is possible but requires careful planning and significant investment.

On the other hand, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) incorporates and expands risk concepts based on ISO 31000 and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) in its approach to climate risk management. ISO 31000 defines risk as the impact of uncertainty on achieving objectives [27], an idea that the IPCC adopts and adapts to address climate change’s uncertain and variable effects. The UNDRR, meanwhile, describes disaster risk in terms of the potential loss of life, injuries, or property damage, focusing on how natural and artificial hazards affect communities [28]. In its Fifth Assessment Report, the IPCC introduced a specific approach to identifying and assessing risks associated with climate change, in line with the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) practice, which focuses on understanding and managing natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, or landslides. These definitions create a conceptual framework that analyzes the climatic, ecological, economic, and social impacts related to climate risks and natural hazards arising from the interaction between the three hazard components (frequency, magnitude, and intensity) and the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems [29].

Table 1. Definition of risk resulting from the interaction between the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.

Hazard	“The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event that may cause loss of life, injury, or […] damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision and environmental resources”.
Exposure	“The presence of people; livelihoods; environmental services and resources; infrastructure; or […] assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected”.
Vulnerability	“The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected”.
Risk	“The potential for consequences where something of value is at stake and the outcome is uncertain, […]”.

presents the IPCC definitions of hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk.

Robert D’Ercole offers an approach used as a basis for the analysis, defining the risk to the population (or other elements of human interest) as the result of negative and positive factors. The harmful components include threats and vulnerabilities that increase risk, while the positive component is defined through the concept of “capabilities”, a term that describes the positive dynamics of risk [30].

2.1. Hazards Analysis

2.1.1. Seismicity

In the Galapagos Islands, the shallow earthquakes that occur on the submarine platform and the continental coast are a consequence of the subduction process of the Nazca oceanic plate under the continental plate of South America. Seismic zoning, as defined in the Ecuadorian Construction Standard [31], was used as a reference to evaluate the seismic threat in the region.

Analyzing the values presented in

Table 2. Factor values depending on the adopted seismic zone.

Seismic Zone	I	II	III	IV	V	VI
Z factor	0.15	0.25	0.30	0.35	0.40	≥0.50
Seismic hazard characterization	Intermediate	High	High	High	High	Very High

, it was concluded that the characterization of the seismic threat to Santa Cruz Island was intermediate. Next, a historical summary of the earthquakes that have affected the Galapagos Islands according to the United States Geological Survey from 1900 to date is presented (see

Table 3. Record of earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 5.

Ord.	Date	Latitude	Length	Depth	M.A.G.
1	6/4/1954	−0.88	−91.864	15	6.26
2	5/5/1926	2.893	−91.384	10	5.88
3	11/8/1929	2.414	−88.733	10	5.75
4	22/12/1999	−0.625	−91.882	10	5.7
5	20/10/1987	0.917	−87.073	10	5.6
6	10/9/1991	0.904	−87.389	10	5.4
7	27/7/1991	1.773	−90.49	10	5.4

), highlighting that most of these events have not significantly impacted Santa Cruz Island [32]. However, a notable earthquake was recorded on 4 June 1954, with a magnitude of 6.26 Mw. This earthquake was due to the slight movement in the upper part of a hot spot plume located 1.50 km west of Isabela Island [33].

2.1.2. Tsunami

The region is known for its vulnerability to tsunamis due to its seismic activity caused by volcanic eruptions, the movement of tectonic plates, and its location at a convergence point of ocean currents. These natural phenomena can cause significant damage to infrastructure, including that related to clean energy, such as the destruction of solar panels, wind turbines, and transmission cables.

Tide gauges located north and south of Santa Cruz Island monitor sea level fluctuations, recording wave arrivals, the duration of disturbances, and any weather changes. In addition, ADCPs installed on the island record the water temperature and current direction every 20 min, providing crucial data on tsunami behavior at the time of impact [34].

Using a simulation based on an 8.6 magnitude earthquake scenario on the Ecuadorian coast, it has been estimated that a wave could reach a height of approximately 10 m in Puerto Ayora during high tide. The tsunami would be expected to reach Puerto Ayora in 1 h and 30 min, flooding about 20% of the city [12].

2.1.3. Volcanic Activity (Ash)

Santa Cruz Island lacks active volcanoes and does not directly face threats associated with volcanic activity; this hazard is more critical on other islands in the archipelago, such as Isabela and Fernandina, which have active volcanic activity. However, Santa Cruz could experience indirect impacts from volcanic activity on surrounding islands, particularly in terms of large-scale eruptions that could alter local climatic conditions, affect the air quality, or interfere with navigation and tourism operations in the area [35].

2.1.4. Floods

On Santa Cruz Island, the ravines generate runoff that, due to the characteristics of the soil and human presence, causes flooding. Heavy rains, especially in the rainy season, exceed the soil’s absorption capacity, causing the formation of ravines from the upper to the lower area, creating temporary lagoons. The areas most affected by these floods are El Aguacatal, El Bosque, Miramar, and some streets in Puerto Ayora, where the lack of storm sewers aggravates the situation, particularly between December and February [12].

Since 1965, the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMHI) [36] has installed meteorological stations in the Galapagos Islands, but only the Charles Darwin Research Station in Puerto Ayora is still operational. In March 2022, Santa Cruz recorded 312 mm of rain, one of the highest rainfalls in its history, with negative impacts on infrastructure, the environment, agriculture, public health, and tourism. This significant increase in rainfall was associated with the El Niño phenomenon, which can increase rainfall by 50% to more than 200% depending on its intensity and the affected region [37].

2.1.5. Landslides

Landslides are gravitational phenomena where a part of the land moves to lower levels when the destabilizing forces exceed the stabilizing forces. These movements are usually related to intense rainfall since torrential rains increase the destabilizing forces and reduce the resistance of the soil, facilitating the slide [8,38].

In South America, landslides are the third biggest hazard in terms of economic losses caused by natural phenomena after floods and surface water erosion and before earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Although landslides in areas of a low population density may not cause significant economic damage, those in densely populated areas can have serious consequences, such as economic and life losses. This study focused on landslides and landslides that affect the economic value of land [8].

2.1.6. Multi-Hazard Map

The maps created in this study were developed using QGIS 3.36.0 software, incorporating hazard maps and information obtained from the Secretaría Nacional de Gestión de Riesgos in Ecuador [39]. In contrast, power distribution information was obtained from the geoportal of ELECGALAPAGOS S.A. [40]. A detailed map, shown in Figure 3, was developed after collecting and analyzing the data and reports on the main natural hazards on Santa Cruz Island, such as landslides, floods, volcanic ash fall, tsunamis, and earthquakes. This map integrates information on each hazard, accurately identifying vulnerable areas. In addition, it is correlated with the existing electrical infrastructure on the island, allowing for a complete assessment of the associated risks. This identification of risk areas facilitates disaster mitigation planning. It is essential to implement preventive and response measures, thus ensuring the resilience of the electrical infrastructure and the continuity of energy supply in emergencies.

2.2. Exposure Analysis

Detailed information about the energy network was collected to analyze the island’s critical electrical infrastructure, and maps showing the electrical transmission and distribution network were created (see Figure 4, Figure 5 and Figure 6). These maps included the main routes of the high-voltage lines and the location of the Galapagos Provincial Electric Company ELECGALAPAGOS S.A., the photovoltaic plant, and the wind towers [21]. This cartography was essential to understanding energy distribution and planning future expansions or improvements.

Currently, Santa Cruz’s energy infrastructure relies on diesel generators, which, while reliable, carry environmental and economic risks. Collaborating with international organizations, the Ecuadorian government is developing projects to implement renewable energy sources, such as solar panels and wind turbines [9]. However, these projects face significant challenges related to scalability, maintenance, and resilience to natural disasters.

2.3. Vulnerability Analysis

With the information collected, an analysis of the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure in the main populated sectors of Santa Cruz Island was carried out. This analysis evaluated the potential impact of the natural threats identified on the electrical installations and suggested measures to mitigate these risks. The study focused on three key areas, Puerto Ayora, Bellavista, and Baltra Island, essential for the island’s electricity generation.

A scheme based on the risk reduction agenda was used for categorization and adaptation to the local situation. The natural hazards in each exposed area were evaluated and classified with different levels and colors: 1 represented very low vulnerability, and 5 represented very high vulnerability, as shown in

Table 4. Vulnerability categories.

Number of Hazards	Category
1	Very low
2	Low
3	Medium
4	High
5	Very high

.

2.3.1. Vulnerability of Puerto Ayora

Puerto Ayora, the island’s main urban and economic center, has a high population density and numerous critical infrastructures, including a photovoltaic plant and the electric company. Its coastal location exposes it to several natural hazards, such as tsunamis, floods, earthquakes, and volcanic ash. According to the ELECGALAPAGOS GEOPORTAL [40], it was divided into four distinct zones to better represent these risks, as shown in Figure 7.

2.3.2. Vulnerability of Bellavista

Bellavista, located in an elevated area with a varied topography, faces challenges different from those of Puerto Ayora. Its geographic environment makes it especially vulnerable to landslides, the formation of ravines due to heavy rains that can cause flooding, and earthquakes and volcanic ash falls, which are common throughout the island. For the analysis, the main towns in this sector were considered: Santa Rosa, Bellavista, and El Cascajo (see Figure 8).

2.3.3. Vulnerability of Baltra Island

Baltra Island (see Figure 9) is crucial for Santa Cruz Island’s electricity generation, as it is home to wind turbines that are essential for power supply. Any disruption in this area would considerably impact the entire island. The vulnerability analysis identified three main threats to Baltra: seismic activity, tsunami impacts, and volcanic ash fall.

3. Results

3.1. Vulnerability

3.1.1. Puerto Ayora

Using the categorization scheme in Table 4, the vulnerability of each sector under study was assessed, allowing for a detailed analysis. The results indicate that zones 1 and 2 have a medium vulnerability level, with a value of three, due to flooding threats, volcanic ash fall, and earthquakes. In contrast, zones 3 and 4 show a high degree of vulnerability, with a value of four, due to the addition of the threat of tsunamis. These results are presented in

Table 5. Puerto Ayora vulnerability level.

Puerto Ayora
Sector	Hazards					Total	Category
	Landslide	Flood	Volcanic Ash	Tsunami	Earthquake
Zone 1	0	1	1	0	1	3	Medium
Zone 2	0	1	1	0	1	3	Medium
Zone 3	0	1	1	1	1	4	High

and Figure 10.

3.1.2. Bellavista

By applying the categorization scheme, vulnerable areas in Bellavista were identified. The results show that Santa Rosa and Bellavista are highly vulnerable to four threats: landslides, floods, volcanic ash fall, and earthquakes. In contrast, El Cascajo, exposed only to volcanic ash fall and earthquakes, is classified as a low-vulnerability area with two threats. These results are presented in

Table 6. Bellavista vulnerability level.

Bellavista
Sector	Hazards					Total	Category
	Landslide	Flood	Volcanic Ash	Tsunami	Earthquake
Santa Rosa	1	1	1	0	1	4	High
Bellavista	1	1	1	0	1	4	High
El Cascajo	0	0	1	0	1	2	Low

and Figure 11.

3.1.3. Baltra Island

Baltra Island was divided into two zones of influence for analysis: Puerto Seymour and the rest of the island (see Figure 9). Both areas are exposed to the same threats of volcanic ash fall and earthquakes, classified as having a low vulnerability category and a total of two threats. However, Puerto Seymour is also exposed to tsunamis, raising its vulnerability category to medium, with a value of three. These results are presented in

Table 7. Baltra Island vulnerability level.

Baltra Island
Sector	Hazards					Total	Category
	Landslide	Flood	Volcanic Ash	Tsunami	Earthquake
Port Seymour	0	0	1	1	1	3	Medium
Remaining area	0	0	1	0	1	2	Low

and Figure 12.

3.2. Risk Assessment

To carry out the risk analysis, the methodology and concepts described by the IPCC and Robert D’Ercole were used and adapted to the context of Santa Cruz Island. This approach considered the exposure to threats in each area, the specific vulnerability, and the prevention or risk reduction measures implemented by the Decentralized Autonomous Government (GAD) of Santa Cruz.

A risk classification scheme was developed considering three levels: low, medium, and high (see

Table 8. Risk levels.

Risk	Percentage
Low	1–33%
Medium	34–66%
High	67–100%

). The percentage ranges in this table are linked to the risk assessment categories for the power generation structures. This classification was based on a combined assessment of the exposure to threats, inherent vulnerability, and the effectiveness of preventive measures. This scheme provides a comprehensive visualization to facilitate planning and strategic decision-making in risk management and the implementation of appropriate interventions on Santa Cruz Island.

3.2.1. Risk Analysis by Areas

Puerto Ayora is exposed to three–four natural hazards, with a vulnerability that varies between medium and high. Consequently, the overall risk would be high. However, the risk reduction measures implemented by the Santa Cruz Cantonal GAD, based on “resilience” and “response”, reduce this risk to a medium level.

Bellavista has been classified as medium risk since it is exposed to two–four natural hazards, with a vulnerability that varies between low and high and without significant risk reduction measures.

Baltra Island is exposed to two–three natural hazards with a vulnerability between low and medium. Due to mitigation measures similar to those of Puerto Ayora, it has been classified as low risk.

Table 9. Risk analysis by area.

Risk Analysis
Area	Parameters			Category
	Exposure to Threats	Vulnerability	Risk Reduction Measures
Puerto Ayora	3–4	Medium–High	SAT Early Warning System Tsunami evacuation routes Annual tsunami emergency drill Land use and occupation plans	Medium
Bellavista	2–4	Low–High	SAT Early Warning System Land use and occupation plans	Medium
Baltra Island	2–3	Low–Medium	SAT Early Warning System Tsunami evacuation routes Energy storage in batteries	Low

summarizes how the Santa Cruz Cantonal GAD’s risk reduction measures have influenced the risk categorization for each area (see Figure 13).

3.2.2. Risk Analysis for the Power System

For a more specific analysis of the power generation infrastructure, which was crucial for this study, the methodology proposed by Miyamoto International and USAID was adopted to complement the categories described in a previous section [41]. This methodology assesses risk based on the following critical parameters: the area, hazards, construction materials, and year of construction; see

Table 10. Value justification matrix for risk.

Structure	Area	Hazards	Construction Materials	Year of Construction
ELEC Galapagos	Being in an urban area and close to the fire station, a low value was considered.	It is located where floods, earthquakes, and ash fall have an effect.	Its construction is based on reinforced concrete.	Year of construction: 1998 [21]
Photovoltaic plant (Puerto Ayora)	Likewise, it is located in an urban area but further away from the fire department.	It is located where floods, earthquakes, ash falls, and tsunamis have an effect.	Solar panels are mainly made of silicon, an essential semiconductor metal that generates energy. They also contain other materials, such as aluminum and copper, which are highly corrosion-resistant. Finally, they are made up of glass sheets. These considerations have placed them in the range of steel materials.	Year of construction: 2014 [42]
Photovoltaic plant (Baltra Island)	It is close to the Baltra airport, considered a safe and early response area.	It is located where only earthquakes and ash fall would have an effect.
Wind towers (Baltra Island)	Certain wind towers are located in different island areas and are far from response entities.	They are located where only earthquakes and ash fall would have an effect.	Their composition is mainly made up of high-quality steel, and their shafts are made of light and resistant materials such as fiberglass, carbon fiber, or polyester.	Year of construction: 2006 [43]
Electrical network poles	As their locations are in both urban and rural areas, specific poles will not have immediate disaster recovery.	They are generally affected by landslides, earthquakes, ash falls, and, in certain places, tsunamis, which is why they are valued highly considering their exposure.	The posts are made of a wide variety of materials, including wooden and metal posts generally located near the sea and others made of concrete in the populated areas.	Intermediate values were taken since old and new poles have no specific construction year.
Power transformers	The transformers are mainly located close to the electric company, so they have a partially immediate recovery in the event of disasters.	Like the poles, they would be affected by landslides, earthquakes, and ash fall.	Transformers are mainly made of steel and other metal components.	Like the poles, there is no specific year of construction, but there is constant maintenance, which is considered a below-average value.

. Each parameter is rated on a scale of 0.1 to 1, where 0.1 indicates the minimum risk and 1 the maximum risk.

This approach allows for a comprehensive risk assessment, providing percentages to classify the degree of risk (see Table 9), which are calculated taking the worst-case scenario with a total risk (TR) of five, implying a risk percentage (%R) of 100%. As mentioned, this system complements the previous scheme, adjusting the risk classification based on these critical parameters. The results are presented in

Table 11. Risk analysis of essential structures.

Structure	Zone	Hazards	Construction Materials	Year of Construction	TR	%R
ELEC Galapagos	0.1	0.5	0.2	0.5	1.3	32.5%
Photovoltaic plant (Puerto Ayora)	0.2	0.8	0.4	0.2	1.6	40.0%
Photovoltaic plant (Baltra Island)	0.2	0.3	0.4	0.2	1.1	27.5%
Wind towers (Baltra Island)	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.3	1.6	40.0%
Electrical network poles	0.5	0.8	0.5	0.5	2.3	57.5%
Power transformers	0.3	0.5	0.4	0.3	1.5	37.5%

as follows:

Consequently, Figure 14 and Figure 15 depict the power generation infrastructure risk maps of Puerto Ayora and Baltra Island.

3.3. Strategies for Fostering Resilience

The GAD of Santa Cruz implements risk prevention and loss reduction measures that include structural and non-structural actions. Structural measures include building barriers and reinforcements to protect infrastructure, while non-structural measures include evacuation policies, community education programs, and early warning systems.

The coming sections detail specific strategies identified to support the GAD in risk mitigation as part of the assessment. These strategies would strengthen preparedness actions and the response capacity to natural hazards, reducing losses and fostering resilience.

3.3.1. Placement of Natural Mangroves for Energy and Debris Dissipation in Case of Tsunamis

Mangroves function as natural barriers that dissipate the energy of tsunami waves, reducing their impact on inhabited areas. In addition, these ecosystems capture and retain debris, minimizing damage to infrastructure and people. The restoration and conservation of mangroves are crucial to increase coastal resilience. In Galapagos, mangroves grow on solid lava and rocky shores, stabilizing sediment and favoring colonization by other plants and animals. According to the article “Mangroves in the Galapagos Islands: distribution and dynamics” (2019), mangrove cover increased by 24% between 2004 and 2014, reaching a total area of 3657.1 hectares, covering 35% of the coast [44].

Research has shown that mangroves are effective in mitigating damage caused by tsunamis. A study in Aceh, Indonesia, following the 2004 tsunami showed that areas with intact mangroves suffered less damage, as they reduced wave heights and better protected coastal communities than those without mangrove cover. The effectiveness of mangroves in absorbing wave energy depends on factors such as the tree density, stem and root diameters, coastal slope, seabed shape, wave characteristics, and tidal level. Although climate change could cause a global loss of 10–15% of mangroves, this threat is minor compared to the current deforestation, which is progressing at 1–2% per year [45].

3.3.2. Implementation of Underground Power Grids

Underground power grids offer excellent protection against damage caused by natural phenomena such as hurricanes and storms, sheltering power lines from direct exposure. This reduces the likelihood of extended power outages, improving power reliability and public safety.

Implementing underground networks has proven effective in increasing resilience to natural disasters. In Tokyo, Japan, undergrounding a large portion of the power grid has significantly decreased power outages and improved supply stability during typhoons and earthquakes. Although installing underground cables is more expensive than installing overhead cables, the investment can be justified due to the increased reliability and lower long-term maintenance costs. Power outages affecting homes and businesses can economically impact underground infrastructure spending [46].

3.3.3. Strengthening the Earthquake-Resistant Structure of Energy Distribution

Strengthening energy infrastructure involves modernizing and reinforcing power plants, substations, and transmission lines to enhance the grid’s resilience to natural disasters and technical failures. This strategy ensures a continuous and secure supply of electricity. A study in Chile demonstrated that reinforcing substations decreases the chances of disconnections during earthquakes. Large-scale energy storage, in particular, plays a proactive role by providing immediate power after an earthquake, thereby reducing the outage time and the amount of energy not supplied [47]. These reinforcements collectively contribute to a more reliable supply and faster power restoration in natural disasters.

3.3.4. Immediate Cleaning Plan for Photovoltaic Panels in Case of Volcanic Ash Fall

Volcanic ash fall can significantly decrease the efficiency of photovoltaic panels. Implementing an immediate and systematic cleaning plan is crucial to maintaining the optimal performance of solar systems even under adverse conditions.

A study on the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull showed that the regular cleaning of photovoltaic panels can restore their efficiency to levels close to 90%. In addition, installing the modules on a steep slope helps minimize the impact of ash accumulation, ensuring more effective operation [48].

3.3.5. Battery Power Reserve

Battery energy storage is essential to ensure a power reserve during emergencies, such as power outages or natural disasters. This capacity is vital to maintain essential services and power in critical situations. A study in California, USA, showed that facilities with battery storage systems could maintain power supply during extended outages caused by wildfires. The study also highlighted that battery storage not only ensures supply during emergencies but also significantly improves the stability and resilience of the electrical grid. Batteries can be charged during periods of low demand and discharged during peak demand or emergencies, reducing reliance on external sources and minimizing the impact of grid failures [49].

3.3.6. Upgrading the Sewer System

Upgrading the urban sewer system is crucial to prevent flooding and manage stormwater flow efficiently, protecting people and infrastructure. A study in Venice, Italy, showed that modernizing the sewer system significantly reduced flooding during high tides and heavy rainfall. The research showed that by improving the design and capacity of the system, the more effective management of stormwater and tides was achieved, reducing the frequency and severity of flooding. This has decreased the risk of damage to property and infrastructure and improved residents’ quality of life by minimizing flooding in inhabited and culturally significant areas.

Sewer modernization includes expanding the drainage capacity, implementing advanced wastewater monitoring and control technologies, and improving connectivity between system parts. These advances are essential in cities like Venice, where geographic and climatic conditions make the sewer system especially vulnerable to water-related problems [50].

3.3.7. Retaining Walls Against Landslides

Retaining walls are structures designed to prevent and control landslides in vulnerable areas, protecting inhabited areas and infrastructure from severe damage. In the Peruvian Andes, the construction of retaining walls has proven effective in reducing the risk of landslides and protecting communities and essential roads. These walls are built using techniques adapted to local geological and climatic conditions, ensuring their effectiveness and durability. Furthermore, their implementation is part of a comprehensive risk management approach, which includes continuous monitoring and regular maintenance to ensure their long-term effectiveness [51].

3.3.8. Implementation of Slopes

Implementing appropriate slopes stabilizes the ground and prevents landslides, which is crucial for safety in built-up areas on slopes. In Hong Kong, well-designed and -maintained slopes have significantly reduced the incidence of landslides and associated damage. This success serves as a model for other landslide-prone regions, underlining the importance of proper planning and applying geotechnical engineering techniques to ensure ground stability and protect people and property [52].

3.3.9. Surface Drains in Ravines

Surface drains in ravines are indispensable for controlling and diverting rainwater, thereby preventing flooding and erosion in vulnerable areas. These drainage systems are vital in optimizing water management and protecting infrastructure and populations from the adverse effects of heavy rains. In Colombia, the implementation of surface drains in urban areas has brought about a significant reduction in soil erosion in regions with steep slopes and unprotected soils. They also prevent sediment drag and soil degradation, protecting infrastructure and green spaces. Significantly, this measure lightens the load on sewer systems, reducing the risk of overflows and flooding [53].

3.3.10. Risk Control Matrix

The purpose of the risk control matrix is to provide orderly and systematic information for the user to assess and manage the risks faced by clean energy infrastructure. This matrix includes several elements, such as the types of risks that correspond to specific natural hazards; the risk category, classified according to Table 9, which classifies the sectors by their degree of risk; and strategies for fostering resilience, recognized within the framework of the study, designed to strengthen the response and recovery capacity, which contributes to mitigating the risk associated with the identified natural hazards.

Table 12. Risk control matrix—Puerto Ayora.

Type	Category	Resilience-Based Solutions
Earthquake	Medium	Energy reserve in batteries Reinforcement of the earthquake-resistant structure of energy distribution
Tsunami	High	Placement of natural mangroves to dissipate energy and debris in cases of tsunamis Implementation of underground electrical networks
Ash fall	Medium	Immediate cleaning plan for photovoltaic panels Energy reserve in batteries
Flood	Low	Improvement of the sewage system

,

Table 13. Risk control matrix—Bellavista.

Type	Category	Resilience-Based Solutions
Earthquake	Medium	Energy reserve in batteries Reinforcement of the earthquake-resistant structure of energy distribution
Ash fall	Medium	Immediate cleaning plan for photovoltaic panels Energy reserve in batteries
Flood	Medium	Improvement of the sewage system Surface drains in ravines
Landslide	Medium	Implementation of slopes Retaining walls against landslides

and

Table 14. Risk control matrix—Baltra Island.

Type	Category	Resilience-Based Solutions
Earthquake	Medium	Energy reserve in batteries Reinforcement of the earthquake-resistant structure of energy distribution
Tsunami	High	Placement of natural mangroves to dissipate energy and debris in cases of tsunamis Implementation of underground electrical networks
Ash fall	Medium	Immediate cleaning plan for photovoltaic panels Energy reserve in batteries

show the risk control matrices for Puerto Ayora, Bellavista, and Baltra Island.

4. Discussion

The analysis carried out in this study has not only highlighted the importance of resilient energy infrastructure in island environments such as Santa Cruz Island but has also provided a better understanding of the complexity of the threats affecting the region. The results show that the predominant natural threats, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions, are caused mainly by the island’s geographic location in an area of high tectonic activity, as shown in Figure 1, which shows the multi-threat map.

The risk analysis implemented in this study, as detailed in Table 9, integrates the different components of the threat, exposure, and vulnerability combined with the “capabilities” mentioned by Robert D’Ercole and has allowed us to identify critical points where the probability of damage is highest, as shown in Figure 13. This methodology has provided a solid basis for planning mitigation measures where infrastructure is prioritized, ensuring that available resources are efficiently directed towards the areas of greatest need and that their operation is not stopped.

A more specific assessment of risk components, such as that proposed by Miyamoto International and USAID, has revealed that a considerable percentage of the island’s critical infrastructure is located in medium-risk areas, demonstrating its insecurity in the face of these natural events. These results are identified in Table 11, which analyzes the risk to these critical structures, which include the components of the electricity distribution network. This situation is particularly worrying in the context of energy facilities, whose failures could trigger cascading effects, affecting energy provision and other essential services such as water supply and communications.

Taken together, these findings underscore the urgency of adopting a multidimensional approach to strengthening energy infrastructure in island environments, such as Santa Cruz Island, through the implementation of natural disaster resilience strategies, as detailed in Table 12, Table 13 and Table 14, which present the risk management matrix for each area, where these proposals have been generated to reduce the impacts and promote “response” or “resilience”. The comparative review of the models adopted by countries such as Japan and New Zealand shows that, although these approaches have been successful in their specific contexts, the adaptability and customization of the solutions are essential to ensure their effectiveness in different geographic and social scenarios.

The integration of innovative technologies and the adoption of regulatory policies that promote sustainability can be established as essential pillars in the protection of critical infrastructures. Considering the experience on the island of El Hierro, which has achieved a completely renewable energy supply, this achievement is not free from challenges related to vulnerability, maintenance, and resistance to extreme phenomena. Therefore, any resilient infrastructure initiative must consider these variables to avoid a functional collapse in emergencies. Furthermore, collaboration with local and international experts, as has been implemented for this study’s exposure and risk research, underlines the importance of a collaborative approach in identifying vulnerabilities and designing technical solutions that can be effectively implemented in the region.

5. Conclusions

This analysis has constituted an essential basis for formulating a strategic plan to strengthen the energy infrastructure on Santa Cruz Island, focusing on developing a robust system resistant to the region’s various natural threats. The study has identified the principal vulnerabilities of the current infrastructure. It has assessed the associated risks while proposing the most effective strategies to guarantee a sustainable and reliable energy supply. The results have shown that the ELECGALAPAGOS company presents a risk of 32.05%, corresponding to a low-risk classification according to the methodology adopted by Miyamoto International and USAID, which considers this level a minimum. Similarly, comparable risk percentages have been observed in the different infrastructures analyzed: the photovoltaic plant in Puerto Ayora and the wind towers on Baltra Island present a medium risk of 40.0%. In comparison, the photovoltaic plant on Baltra Island has shown a risk of 27.5%. Despite their importance in generating renewable energy, these facilities have exhibited moderate vulnerability due to their location and the particular threats of each area. Incorporating new sources of renewable energy generation has been identified as essential to reduce the carbon footprint and dependence on fossil fuels, so evaluating lower risk areas to ensure the safety of the new facilities is crucial. Regarding power distribution on the islands, power grid poles and transformers have been recognized as vital for efficient and sustainable operation. Poles, which support medium- and low-voltage transmission lines, have shown an average risk of 57.5%, indicating considerable vulnerability, probably due to exposure to adverse environmental conditions and the deterioration of materials, which increases the possibility of failures that could interrupt the power supply. Transformers responsible for adjusting electricity to safe voltage levels have shown an average risk of 37.5%. These results have highlighted the need to implement preventive maintenance measures and, if necessary, reinforce or replace the most vulnerable infrastructures to ensure the continuity and security of the electric service in the region. Finally, strategies to foster resilience have been described in the risk control matrix, which aims to improve electrical efficiency. Among the strategies, the development of an advanced energy storage system complemented by an innovative distribution network has been established. This approach would maintain a stable and adaptable supply, even in the face of climatic variations that may impact the systems. Integrating these sustainable innovations with a reinforced infrastructure would guarantee service continuity and minimize negative impacts in the event of severe interruptions.

Future work will assess selected locations to implement decentralized microgrids based on renewable resources, specifically solar panels on buildings’ roofs, allowing for cross-sector interoperability alternatives.