Learning from the Future of Kuwait: Scenarios as a Learning Tool to Build Consensus for Actions Needed to Realize Vision 2035

Abstract

This perspective is a qualitative meta-analysis study using a critical interpretive synthesis that narrates three future and equally plausible scenarios of social and economic development in the State of Kuwait over the next 15 years. The first scenario follows what we call the ‘Sustainable Growth’ model as defined by the United Nations Development Goals and the Kuwait Vision 2035 presented by the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah. As a polar opposite, the next scenario is what we call the ‘Mismanaged Resourced-Based Autocracy’ model, a negative reflection of the worst-case scenario. The third scenario is in between these two, and we call it the ‘Equality of Outcome Between Societal Groups’ model. So as not to lay blame for past actions or point fingers, which could prove counterproductive to a consensus-building process for needed actions, we chose to use the pasts of other countries for future projections for the State of Kuwait. Our search through recent socio-economic pasts revealed that Singapore was the best fit for the first scenario, Venezuela for the second, and Lebanon for the third. All these countries became fully independent at approximately the same time as the State of Kuwait and share many other similarities. The three future projections were used as input variables to the outcome, which was a bottom-up and top-down consensus-making process regarding utilitarian action for Kuwait to be used by Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), Think-Tanks, Development Agencies, the government and the parliament.

1. Introduction

In 1961, Kuwait transitioned from a British protectorate to a fully independent state. Over the next 30 years, the State of Kuwait was described as the most developed in the region [1,2,3,4]. Kuwait pioneered an Arab literary renaissance, was considered one of the freest places on Earth and was the highest-ranking Arab nation in the Human Development Index [5,6,7]. Kuwait’s rapid, oil-based industrialization was fuelled by the import of foreign workers, predominantly from Palestine, India, and Egypt. However, most of the 400,000 or so Palestinians were expelled in the aftermath of the 1990 Kuwait-Iraq war, as their leader Yasser Arafat aligned with the invaders [8], and the other two nations mostly filled their labour gap, rivalling Kuwaiti nationals in population size.

Due to gradually declining oil prices in the late 2010s, along with expenses driven by the increase in population, Kuwait has experienced new economic hardships followed by political deadlocks in parliament [9,10]. Kuwait currently holds an A1 Moody’s credit rating with stable outlooks, but “persistent challenges in the political environment limit prospects for reforms to reduce reliance on hydrocarbon revenue and vulnerability to carbon transitions” [11].

Over the last seven years, seven cabinets have been formed, and, since 2012, a total of 6 parliamentary elections have taken place [12]. 19 March 2023 the Supreme Court of Kuwait annulled the September 2023 siting “discrepancies”. According to the Kuwaiti constitution, political power lies largely with the ruling Al Sabah family. The ruling family appoints the prime minister and cabinet and can dissolve the national assembly at any time. “The squabbling has prevented the assembly from passing basic economic reforms, including a public debt law that would allow the government to borrow money, leading to the depletion of its general reserve fund despite its vast oil wealth” [13]. Effectiveness of the parliament has “declined” due to sectarian or tribal allegiances. “Unfortunately, voting is regarded along the familial, tribal, sectarian, and friendship lines without giving attention to the electoral agendas of the candidates” [14].

Although, by all standards, Kuwait is an extremely rich country with 6% of the world’s oil reserves, the fourth-largest sovereign fund, and governmental debt below 6% of the GDP [15], it is evident that the current economic model is not sustainable. In 2017, the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) published a report entitled “Kuwait in Transition, Towards a Post-Oil Economy”, in which the agency stated that the present oil-revenue-driven welfare state economic model is no longer sustainable for the State of Kuwait. The KIA affirmed that the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) was the future route by which to revitalize the Kuwaiti economy and form a future tax base [16,17]. In a style similar to the Mittelstand, a term used for SMEs in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, these companies could be the Kuwaiti source of innovation and entrepreneurship and the foundation of future economic growth. KIA suggests various structural changes such as privatization, digitalization, and automation of governmental services, but for these changes to take place, a strong and wide political will and nationwide consensus have to be in place about the need for these developments. This is a colossal task to forge a common bottom-up consensus, which can here be compared to post-oil boom nation-building.

In numerous situations and nations, scenario planning has been utilized to inform decision-making and future planning. These are a few instances in which it has been applied to nation-building: The South African government formed the National Planning Commission in 2010 to assist in directing the country’s long-term development objectives. Through scenario planning, the commission developed four probable futures for the nation, each with its own set of challenges and possibilities. The National Development Plan, which sets South Africa’s long-term development goals, was informed by these scenarios [18]. Singapore’s Economic Strategies Committee also made similar efforts in 2009. The government of Singapore established the Economic Strategies Committee (ESC) to assess the country’s economic strategy and identify opportunities for future growth. The ESC utilized scenario planning to generate a set of four future scenarios, each with a unique set of assumptions regarding global economic trends and technological advancements. These scenarios aided in the creation of Singapore’s Economic Strategy Report, which defines the nation’s long-term economic goals [19,20]. Thirdly, Future Directions International is an independent research organization in Australia that employs scenario planning to influence its studies on a variety of subjects, including national security, regional development, and environmental sustainability. The institution employs a number of techniques, including computer modelling and expert workshops, to construct alternative future scenarios for Australia and the surrounding area [21].

Scenario planning has also been utilized by nations and organizations to inform their long-term planning and decision-making processes. In the context of nation-building, scenario planning may be a beneficial tool since it enables leaders and decision-makers to foresee and prepare for probable future obstacles or opportunities. Economic or health crises are an illustration of how scenario planning might be applied to nation-building. Crises force one to focus on what is important for long-term survival and to prevent future crises [22]. For example, in the aftermath of worldwide economic catastrophes such as SARS-CoV-2, nations are facing terrible economic declines. The unemployment rate has skyrocketed, and firms are battling for survival. The governments are under pressure to take decisive action to avert a total economic catastrophe. One scenario could be that to balance the budget and avert a financial crisis, the government may be required to undertake austerity measures, such as reducing public spending. In such a case, it is possible that the unemployment rate will continue to climb, causing social dissatisfaction and political instability. In such a case, it may be necessary for the government to seek financial help from international institutions such as the World Bank or International Monetary Fund, which may come with onerous terms and criteria. Another scenario might be for the government to boost the economy through infrastructure construction, tax incentives, or other means, which might result in a rise in debt levels. Ways of dealing with such situations are to create contingency plans for crisis management of public finances and, at the same time, create a social safety net to aid people who have lost their jobs or enterprises as a result of the recession. Furthermore, to build ties with foreign organizations and have access to financial aid and specialist knowledge, create methods for economic diversification to lessen reliance on a particular industry or sector. Develop a national resilience strategy that considers the possible impact of economic crises on the stability and security of the nation. By utilizing scenario planning, the government may prepare for a prospective economic catastrophe and take proactive measures to lessen its effects on the country. This strategy can contribute to the development of a more resilient and sustainable economy that is better suited to face future obstacles [23].

1.1. Vision 2035 for the State of Kuwait

The strategic plans for the State of Kuwait have traditionally taken top-down approaches, such as the Vision 2035 from the late Emir H. H. Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, “To transform Kuwait into a financial and trade hub, investors, attractive to where the private sector leads the economy, competition, and promoting production efficiency, creating under the umbrella of enabling government institutions, social identity, which accentuates values, safeguards, and achieves human resource development as well as balanced development, providing adequate infrastructure, legislation, and inspiring business environment” [24]. In the Kuwait National Development Plan of 2020–2035, the lack of sustainability in the economy is pointed out since as much as 7% of the national budget comprises subsidies for utility costs, leading to wasteful consumption. The authors point out that it is critical to reduce the dependency on the government sector as the primary source of employment and oil as the primary source of governmental income, agreeing with the KIA that a reduction in subsidies and privatization, along with an increase in debt and taxation, is inevitable. According to the plan presented by the KNDP, Kuwait should reach 35th place in the Global Competitive Index by 2035 (it is currently at 46th) [25]. It also aims to increase Kuwaiti national employment in the private sector from 23.4% [26] to 69% of the total national labour force. Furthermore, the KNDP plans to accelerate the growth of the private sector to 5.5% of the Gross National Product (GDP) and increase private sector participation by increasing the private sector share of the GDP to 39% by 2035 [27,28,29,30]. While strengthening the private sector and decreasing the significance of the public sector, the State of Kuwait also plans to pursue substantial advancement in the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Figure 1 [31].

1.2. Problem Statement and Significance

According to the Kuwaiti Voluntary National Review (2019) [32], the major gaps and challenges between Vision 2035 and the current reality are as follows:

• The unfinanced budget deficit;
• A waning infrastructure;
• Over-reliance on the oil sector;
• Limited linkage between the Kuwait Master Plan and the Development Plan;
• The weak role of the private sector in development;
• A poor track record of attracting Direct Foreign Investment (DFI).

The problems in implementing Vision 2035 clearly show that some form of nationwide consensus is needed and that sacrifices must be made in the short term for these long-term programs to emerge and bear fruit. Both Singapore and South Africa used scenario planning to gain such a consensus, for which short-term sacrifices had to take place to ensure that long-term benefits would produce results. This paper is such an attempt, where the scenarios form an input into such a discussion through planning agencies and public forums. Without stakeholders’ consensus and approval of the needed changes, it is unlikely that such ambitious plans will fully flourish.

2. Literature Review

2.1. Introduction to Royal Dutch Shell Scenarios

Together, internal and external stakeholders form the fabric of a society that adheres to needs, values, and interests that might be based on deep-rooted religious values as well as being influenced by popular culture [33,34,35,36].

The purpose of this paper is to create visionary mental models that illustrate the long- and medium-term consequences of actions and decisions taken today, as points of consideration for industry, labour, and policymakers, to comprehend which type of economic and social order stimulates the greatest good for the greatest number of Kuwaiti citizens in the near and medium future [37,38,39,40]. This exercise does not strive to predict the future but to provide a mental picture of the future consequences of today’s choices, borrowing from the experiences of other countries. It is presented here for policymakers to provide a somewhat clearer picture of which policies had medium- or long-term harmful results, the necessary sacrifices to be made to achieve a set of medium- or long-term goals, and the quality of life decisions that can be left to the democratic public choice of citizens towards a collective risk benefit analysis [40,41,42,43,44]. The main methodological contributions are to intertwine stakeholder theory and public choice into the Royal Dutch Shell scenario formations (Figure 2).

2.2. Input Variables

As opposed to using the Delphi technique, as is the preference of numerous scenario-planning authors [45,46], or opting to use best/worst-case scenarios, which is not a widely recognized academic scenario-planning technique, the tools used here are based on public choice and stakeholder theory as checklists for selecting the variables for scenario planning. They have been separated into the development of environmental inputs and public choices that come from governments, firms, and society at large [47,48]. Mueller explains that “public choices can be defined as the economic study of nonmarket decision-making, or simply the application of economics to political science” [37]. He cites Aristotle, Adam Smith, and a myriad of contemporary authors in arguing that economics and politics are so intertwined that they cannot be studied in isolation from each other and should rather be studied as one phenomenon, being two sides of the same coin.

Hence, public choice theory puts forth important questions such as the following:

(a)

Which values, principles, incentives, and punishments does the national state stand for and uphold?

(b)

What role and format should be in place for general voters’ decisions to influence society?

(c)

Which forms and functions of governmental bureaucracies deliver the greatest good for the greatest number of people?

These questions touch on many important issues, including the following:

• Economic and social values;
• The state of relative safety in society;
• Fairness, transparency, and equality;
• The quality and affordability of healthcare and education;
• The merit-based upward mobility of individuals, groups, and regions;
• The competitive advance of nations in comparison to other nations;
• Quality of life according to the UNDP Happiness Index [49].

Stakeholder theory, on the other hand, maps the positive economic preferences and interrelationships between various groups that form a society. Here, they are divided into the following:

• internal stakeholders with societal input into the productive forces that form corporations, such as the employees, customers, suppliers, shareholders, and creditors, and members of the corporate structure that make decisions that affect the output and impact that corporations make on society [50]; and
• external stakeholders from various forms of governments and governmental bureaucracies and Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and special interest groups that can help companies in terms of giving advice, opening doors to new opportunities, granting soft loans and finance, and providing protection against unfair competition, but can also restrict companies by providing inefficient, timely, and complicated procedures and high taxation and limiting advancement, often in order to protect environments, health and safety, or workers and the public, as well as to ensure a fair and efficient competitive environment [51].

2.3. Sources of Economic Growth

Sustainable utilitarian economic growth is the focus of this study. Thus, the authors looked at such models in existence that consist of essentially four modes in which economic growth can materialize [52]. These are as follows:

• A surge in aggregate demand, meaning a growth in domestic consumption, increase in governmental spending, and company domestic expansion, often driven by population growth via bringing in foreign labour;
• A rise in aggregated supply, and increased productive capacity through better use of existing capital goods and machinery, which will in turn increase unit labour productivity [53];
• The discovery or amplified utilization of natural resources such as oil and gas, hydro, geothermal, wind and solar power, fisheries, minerals, and forestry exploitation;
• Innovation and entrepreneurship activities, such as growth in new product and service creation, commercialization, development, and implementation—especially if these new endeavours will lead to growth in exports.

A vast amount of evidence based on over 500 peer-reviewed academic articles collected over the last 10 years on factors influencing economic growth [43] has determined that innovation and its commercialization via entrepreneurship are the only long-term sustainable economic development engines for human society. This has confirmed the findings of Solow and Swan [54], who earned a Nobel Prize in Economics for stating that only the “technological process” is responsible for sustainable economic growth. It has been emphasized by Vullo, Morando, and Platania that “constant innovation has become a critical factor for achieving competitive advantage. Innovation is widely acknowledged as a key mechanism for addressing sustainable development concerns” [55].

The most commonly used scenario-planning technique is the ‘future forward’ approach, which projects plausible futures based on an analysis of present forces and their likely development. However, this study relies on a different approach, which is called ‘future-backward’ scenario planning. These future scenarios are selected based on historical facts and the developments that led to them. These scenarios are presented in the form of narratives of the phenomenon or the development, resembling a story, told by the spectator [56]. This is presented here as a systematic approach that offers a great width of outcome as the scenarios are selected to have the greatest scope within the field of their relevance. This approach was selected as opposed to the ‘future forward’ system, which is based on the opinions of experts. Although ‘future forward’ scenario planning offers great depth, depending on the experience and knowledge of the experts that are consulted in obtaining them, they are based on opinions nonetheless and, as such, tend to be more subjective than the former approach [57,58,59].

Thus, the “future backward” approach is used here to guard the objectivity of the scenarios, as they are based on historical facts, specifically the economic and social development of Venezuela, Lebanon, and Singapore. They are presented by the transferable but disassociated development of the phenomenon that is being researched here, the future economic and social development of the State of Kuwait. The assumption here is that history, even if not one’s own, is an influential tool for learning and a guide to building a mental model of aspects to prepare for occurrences that are yet to come. A perfect example of this can be seen in the words of British wartime Prime Minister Winston Churchill in his speech at the British Parliament in 1948: “For those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.” If these words, which Churchill borrowed from another philosopher [60,61], are true, two questions arise. On the one hand, can one truly learn from others’ histories with the same effect as one’s own? On the other hand, if the path of historical events can be extrapolated into the future and then looked back upon from the future as if it were our past, can it be used as a tool for learning “from the past”?

The three pasts that are projected as futures are presented as equally conceivable scenarios, depending on decisions taken in Kuwait over the next 15 years. The first scenario is for sustainable socio-economic growth that sustains the current needs of Kuwaitis in a manner that does not deplete the quality of life of future generations and is in line with the Kuwait Vision for 2035. The second one is the contrary model, or non-sustainable growth, that goes against the principles of Vision 2035. Actions benefit the present at the expense of future quality of life and social and economic growth. The third scenario is stagnation from inaction due to a system that was geared to ensure the equality of outputs for all major societal groups.

3. The Process of Data Integration: A Critical Interpretive Synthesis

3.1. Steps in Building a Scenario

The scenario-learning formation process used here is a sequential eight-step journey.

• A comprehensive list of drivers is agreed upon, as are economic and social variables to be used in the creative scenario-building process.
• The interrelationship among the drivers and the variables must be analyzed to understand their causal connection to each other [33].
• Defining dimensions that embrace the areas of greatest uncertainty, spread over a broad but plausible range, to ensure the width and scope of the study.
• Criteria are established to select three to five phenomena (pasts) for the scenario formation and ensure that they all offer, within range, equally plausible future outcomes.
• Either a wide range of experts are gathered to devise the scenarios (the future forward approach) or adoptable historical developments (the future backward approach) are used.
• Different effects of some of the foreseeable future challenges are calculated, and sets of strategies are formulated either to counter the evolution or to advance it.
• These future scenarios are then presented in an eye-catching manner that creates conversation and rejoinder from the widespread collection of spectators, audience members, and readers, particularly the ones who are in positions to influence the real future outcomes.
• At the final stage, a consortium of specialists and opinion leaders is assembled in a discussion of which strategies, guidelines, and positive as well as punitive incentives would produce an “optimal” result that would generate the greatest good for the greatest number of citizens.

3.2. Selecting and Evolving the Scenario Drivers (Steps 1 and 2)

Step one in the scenario formation process entails evolving a base of the appropriate scenario drivers. The second step would be to examine the interrelationship between the drivers and construct an overall outline around the scenarios and their shaping factors. Here, an established market economy model is borrowed from the renowned consulting firm DRI and displayed in Fahey and Randal’s Learning from the Future [33] (see Model 2). The variables that have the greatest effect, according to the model, are domestic consumption and income. They are affected by the level of taxation, the strength of the local currency, the overall financial supply, and the level of inflation. Fluctuations in inputs such as the supply of qualified labour, level of domestic and foreign investment, and the effectiveness of local innovation and its commercialization through entrepreneurship are also important variables (Figure 3).

The final factor in the model is soft value, which is equally important as the others. This consists of the following:

• future expectations and preferences regarding consumer confidence;
• market stability and price volatility;
• inward and outward perceptions of national competencies, and
• the general level of optimism, impacting present domestic spending, and building sustainable economic growth if these sentiments are based on solid foundations, or create short-term gains at the expense of long-term development if the thoughts are fabricated and illusionary.

All available drivers and variables from past perspectives for the selected geographic areas have been included as inputs in the formation of the three future scenarios for the State of Kuwait.

3.3. Choose, Research, and Label the Scenario Projections (Steps 4–5)

In the fourth and fifth steps of the scenario formation, we apply data to the dimensions according to the models’ outcomes, along with historic data from several academic papers, books, and newspapers, into a narrative that we label in a descriptive and qualitative manner. From an extensive search of socio-economic pasts, we found that the best fit with these models that could prove most useful for Kuwaiti future projections was the economic and social development of newly independent small and medium-sized states in Singapore for sustainable growth, Venezuela for non-sustainable growth, and Lebanon for the stagnation model.

3.3.1. Singapore’s Past: Sustainable Growth

Singapore, a small country (20 times smaller than Kuwait in land mass), gained independence from Britain in 1965 and was separated from Malaysia. Shortly thereafter, it became a hotspot for Malaysians and Indonesians of Chinese origin, who, in 60 years, built this tiny island without any natural resources into the world’s richest per capita and the most developed country in the world. The economist Milton Friedman described Singapore as an example of how to develop in the right way [62]. The late Lee Kuan Yew, generally regarded as the “father” of modern Singapore, embarked on shipbuilding and built up the transportation infrastructure from the start, making the country the primary choice for the re-export of Malaysian and Indonesian goods, as well as being a hub for repacking for export to other countries due to their low tax rates and efficient financial systems and the most competitive physical and governmental infrastructure in the world [63,64,65]. Singaporeans are reaping the benefits of Lee’s emphasis on education, hard work, and saving for the future and attracting the best talent from all over the world to teach best practices. This is the benchmark that Singaporeans must aspire to in a strongly competitive environment of competencies in a system that is built on strict meritocracy at every level, rather than family ties or other forms of connection [66].

Singapore has recently been placed at the top of the list of the world’s most competitive economies. Researchers at the Swiss EHL group state the reasons for its success:

(a)

The country’s strategic location, through which 40% of world trading routes pass, and an efficient and timely logistics infrastructure to take advantage of the location.

(b)

It actively attracts foreign investment and international talent through public and private invitations, low tax policies, and property and other rights protection.

(c)

Highly efficient, effective, and transparent governmental procedures and practices.

(d)

A stable political system and strong ties between the government and businesses by enforcing strict, transparent, and effective non-corruption measures via a highly efficient legal system.

(e)

The most progressive English-speaking education systems start in kindergarten and above. Education is a large sector with high quality standards, placing Singapore first according to the Human Capital Index. Robert Lucas from the University of Chicago states that human capital development, especially in natural science and technology, is the best indicator of future economic growth [67]. Singapore has been systematically among the top three for over three decades in the OECD’s Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) competitions, which measure average scores in mathematics, science, and reading among the youth of every country [68].

(f)

A sustainable environment with efficient use of fresh water, quality of air, and maximization of urban greenery, which became known as the city within the garden [69,70,71].

Singapore has imposed many types of laws to ensure that it is an attractive country for foreign direct investment (FDI) with ease of doing business, and it ranks second in the world in the latter. It strives to maintain good relationships between the three vital stakeholders in the economic model: government, business, and trade unions. According to the World Bank, Singapore is the third-largest recipient of FDIs after the USA and China, and its effect on the economic development of the country cannot be underestimated. Tourism is another sector of the economy that contributes significantly to its GDP. Its highly managed sovereign funds are among the top ten in the world. It is illegal in Singapore for the government to borrow for consumption; it is only allowed to borrow for investment, resulting in a net (not gross) debt of zero. However, some of the key economic challenges for Singapore are income distribution and a low birth rate. Singapore ranks fourth lowest in the world according to the Corruption Perception Index, and this contributes significantly to its economic success [72,73,74].

3.3.2. The Venezuela Story: Non-Sustainable Growth

In 1922, massive oil reserves were discovered in Venezuela, eventually making it the world’s second-largest petroleum exporter. However, this enormous amount was only generated in the hands of a few powerful families and did little to improve the dilapidated infrastructure, inefficient agriculture, and rampant rural poverty [75] that eventually led to the overthrow of the government and the transition of the oil revenues to the government in 1958 [76]. In the 1980s, the per capita GDP was among the world’s highest, thanks to the OPEC embargo that raised oil prices and thus income for the government of Venezuela. After several reforms that yielded little for the country’s productivity and competitiveness and the worldwide collapse of oil prices, the IMF was forced to bail out the country in 1990. The IMF’s strict austerity measures raised the prices of public transport and consumer goods, leading to riots and unrest among the Venezuelan public, which was accustomed to the good life provided by the high oil prices and generous governmental benefits [77,78,79,80,81]. The violence that followed led to the suspension of many civil liberties and nationwide curfews.

From this chaos, the leftist populist president Hugo Chavez rose to power in 1999 and embarked on a massive social spending binge [82,83,84]. His social programs financed education, health, and food production, leading to drastic decreases in poverty, but making the country deeply dependent on future oil revenues. A decline in oil prices and a failure to update the country’s infrastructure that led to a decrease in oil production collapsed the economy, although the downfall was somewhat delayed by Chinese loans [85,86]. The government used this wealth for several socialist projects that aimed to reduce poverty and inequality, such as ‘Mission Barrio Adentro’, aimed at providing healthcare to the poorest citizens, and “Mission Robinson”, aimed at providing literacy to those who had never learned to read and write. Other social programs were not as successful and were criticized for their level of inefficiency and the level of corruption, which failed to increase the competitiveness of the country and its dependency on oil revenues. Chavez’s agenda of nationalizing various industries was placed under severe criticism, and his attempt to consolidate power in his executive branch of government was seen as undemocratic and sparked protests.

Chavez’s replacement by Maduro in 2013 brought a country increasingly ruled by military decree to a halt. Opposition leaders and journalists were arrested, and the national assembly that contested his election victory along with the western powers was suspended. Venezuela is undergoing an unprecedented social and humanitarian collapse due to poor economic policies, political unrest, food insecurity, and the exodus of 7 million people (25% of the total population) since 2014. This has deprived the country of skilled workers and a younger childbearing population, resulting in a huge imbalance in generations [87].

3.3.3. The Lebanon Story

Lebanon is a small country, almost half the size of Kuwait by landmass, with a strategic geographic location in the Middle East, known to be the crossroads between the east and west. It is a diverse country with 18 state-recognized religious sects that have, in the past, fought each other, with the help of various foreign powers and created unstable economic and social conditions. Peace was finally achieved by the so-called National Reconciliation Accord in 1990, which divided the parliament, ministries, and other forms of government along religious lines: two Shia Muslims, two Sunni Muslims, 12 Christian factions, one Druze, and one Jewish [88,89]. This sectarian power-sharing agreement has been heavily criticized for perpetuating corruption, nepotism, and inequality for those who are not connected to the main power-sharing groups. Political deadlock prevents needed democratic and merit-based electoral reform from taking place that would allow for greater political diversity and proportional representation outside of regional sects. The same applies to anti-corruption measures aimed at increasing transparency and accountability as well as promoting more efficient governance throughout the public sector.

Although this peace appeared to hold for a while, the system proved to be extremely inefficient and costly, with associated deficit spending, and the level of debt that the Lebanese government accumulated was astronomical. In 2010, the public debt exceeded 150% of the GDP, ranking Lebanon fourth highest in the world, and it reached the highest debt level in the world in 2019, or 185% of the GDP [90]. This debt level was unsustainable, but the deadlock in government made reforms virtually impossible as each faction was safeguarding its domain and disregarding the effectiveness and efficiency of the government and public works. The government moved slowly because it was dysfunctional, as the factions of the government did not operate in tandem with each other. Political and security instability, in addition to regional inequalities, led to the further deepening of the economic crisis. A sectarian political system, the unfair distribution of wealth, and the mismanagement of public finances led to one of the highest concentrations of billionaires per capita [91]. In 2019, the top 10% of the population owned around 71% of the country’s wealth and received more than 50% of the national income between the years 2005 and 2016. Then tragedy struck in 2020, when an abandoned ammonium nitrate dump caught fire, destroying a large part of the capital in a massive explosion and leading to hundreds of casualties [92]. The inability to govern became absolute, and Lebanon became a failed state as the political will that was needed to reform the deadlocked, stagnating system seemed to be absent [93,94].

3.3.4. Labeling the Past for Future Forward Projection of Socio-Economy of Kuwait

For the future projection using Singapore’s past, we labeled the scenario “Private-Led Sustainable Growth”. The Venezuelan past as a future projection of the Kuwaiti socio-economic outlook was labeled “Borrowing from Future Generations”. Finally, Lebanon’s past projection was labeled ‘Strategic Stagnation’. The following table summarizes the past data sets gathered from the socio-economic past as input variables to devise the three possible future scenarios for Kuwait’s socio-economic futures as per

Table 1. Controlling dimensions of the scenarios. Source: Collection Authors.

Country	Venezuela Past Projection	Singapore Past Projection	Lebanon Past Projection
Scenario Label	Borrowing from Future Generations	Private-Led Sustainable Economy	Strategic Stagnation
Financial Prudence	Least important	Most important	Somewhat important
Image Management	Most important	Somewhat important	Least important
Social (Group) Equality	Somewhat important	Least important	Most important
Role of Government	Wealth distributor	Referee of fair competition	Protector of the equal collective treatment
Socio-Eonomic Preference	Order and stability	Freedom to pursue new opportunities	Equality among groups

.

3.4. Select Challenges for the Future (Step 6)

In the 6th step, the economic variables introduced in steps 1–2 are used to create a list of threats and opportunities for the future. The main challenges include the following:

• The decline in the relative size of the workforce in the general population is due to longevity and falling childbirth rates per woman.
• The changing of worldwide competitive factors, which is frequently called the globalization phenomenon.
• The adaptation to new production and delivery technology, particularly atomization, such as self-service online sales of products and services, non-manned production and delivery, and enriched customer experiences with the use of Virtual and Augmented Reality (VR&AR) and Artificial Intelligence (AI), which can analyse and react to big data more accurately and effectively at a fraction of the time and cost compared to today’s business practices.

3.4.1. Ten Technology Trends Affecting Work in Near Future

Most of these trends have in common a reduction in the reliance on non-skilled workers and repetitive work, which are likely to be replaced by machines. The McKinsey Corporation at the World Economic Forum presented 10 tech trends that would revolutionize workplaces as well as transform societies in the near future [95].

• Process automation and virtualization (robots, automation, and 3D printing);
• Faster and greater machine-to-machine connectivity (decentralization over borders);
• Cloud computing (increased speed, reduced complexity, cost savings);
• Quantum computing (leap in speed of computer calculations for machine learning and artificial intelligence);
• Human Replacement Artificial Intelligence (service sector AI interfaces);
• AI-driven computer programming (for customization, speed, and simplicity);
• Trust architecture (block chain, biomarkers, wearable computer chips);
• The BIO revolution (DNA custom-made medicine, self-bio robots, life health data reporting);
• Next-gen materials (nano-technology-based shape/colour/form-shifting material);
• The Clean Tech Revolution (unit cost reduction in new renewable energy applications).

3.4.2. Industries That Will Be Most Affected by Technological Changes

Governments will increasingly feel the tech pressure and realize they are increasingly unable to address these developments. McKinsey projects that all sectors will be impacted, especially the following:

• Healthcare (pharmaceutical and healthcare providers);
• Mobility sectors (transportation, logistics, and the automotive industry);
• The Industry 4.0 sector (advanced industries, chemicals, and electronics);
• The enablers sector (information gathering, distribution, and telecommunications).

If companies in these sectors do not embrace these technologies, they are likely to see themselves forced out of business in favor of those who do.

3.4.3. Demographic Affecting the Work Place in KUWAIT

The year 2019 was the first year that the State of Kuwait saw its birth rate fall below the replacement value of 2.1 per woman, which is the required birth rate to maintain the dependency ratio between the working-age population and retirees. The birth rate has fallen drastically since it was 7 children per woman on average in 1970 (Figure 4) [96]. As a result, Kuwait saw their medium age go up by 1 year from 2012 to 2021, or from 29 to 30 years old in 2020: Additionally, in 2020, the population of Kuwait decreased for the first time in 50 years by close to 100.000 inhabitants mainly due to immigrants leaving the country (Figure 5) [97].

3.4.4. Seven Strategies to Bridge the Upcoming Labour Shortage Gap to Ensure Sustainable Development

• Longer work life and the postponement of retirement considering a longer life expectancy. Retirement at the age of 60 is available to many who are working in the public sector, and several restrictions apply to renewing the residencies of expats over sixty, especially for those who do not hold a university degree [98].
• Employment of foreign labour where specialized skills are in need or for 3D (dirty, difficult or demeaning) work usually not sought by Kuwait nationals, where it is dirty, difficult, and demeaning.
• Exporting service and production work in the form of outsourcing contracts, usually for call centres or digital services on the service side, and subcontracting production of goods in low-wage workplaces in Southeast Asia.
• Employing more Kuwaiti women as a result of the lowering birth rate from 4 children per woman 20 years ago to 2 children per woman in 2022. Women will be increasingly represented in the workplace, especially in light of the fact that as high as 65% of university students in Kuwait are women as of 2022. Currently, only 57% of women are represented in the workplace, compared to 85% of men, and women only enjoy around 56% of men’s salaries. Incentive programs with quota systems for either gender might lower this gap [99,100,101].
• Supporting female-owned entrepreneurship. It is evident from the data that female entrepreneurship is one of the most promising opportunities with which to grow the Kuwaiti economy but is exploited the least. Women in the Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) complain that external investment and department service are very much restricted to female owned enterprises. In the Middle East and North Afrika (MENA) area, companies created by women raised only 1.3% of the $3.94 billion funded in 2022. Female-led enterprises create 78 cents for every dollar invested. Comparatively, male-founded firms only produce 31 cents. Investing in firms managed by women appears to be a financially and morally sound decision. Kuwait supports entrepreneurship and innovation mainly through the Kuwaiti Foundation for Scientific Advancement (KFAS) and affiliated institutions, as well as financial institutions such as the National Fund for Small and Medium Enterprise Development (National Fund) [102,103,104,105]. Some kind of quota system to ensure that either gender will achieve a certain minimum might be beneficial.
• Employing further automation, self-service through digitized technology, or robotics to diminish the need for repetitive work.
• Added social and financial incentives to increase childbirth through governmental and social programs that allow women to have prosperous careers while taking care of numerous children.

3.4.5. Governmental Response to Technology and Demographic Shifts

This demographic shift from a proportionally decreasing workforce of aged, qualified workers will place strains on governmental budgets that have to be dealt with. Financing the enlarged social responsibilities of aging populations who are not likely to be high taxpayers will have to be achieved through one or more of the following options:

• Cutting public spending and decreasing social entitlements, which might result in some form of civil protest.
• Issuing local or foreign governmental loans, which will have future implications as they will have to be paid back with interest later but might have the immediate impact of increasing capital for public and private companies as well as weakening the local currency.
• Levying higher taxes for individuals and firms, which will have a negative impact on economic growth as less money will be available for domestic consumption.

4. Projects: The Three Future Scenarios Applied to the State of Kuwait (Step 7)

4.1. The Private-Led Sustainable Growth Scenario—Inspired by Singapore’s Past Development

From 2023, a coordinated effort by national and local governments as well as the Parliament and international development agencies and NGOs. Together, they formed an action plan to ensure the sustainability of Kuwait for the next 50 years. This plan, which included political and public expenditure reforms, has encouraged financial prudence, accountability, and transparency. “Faster, Cheaper, Efficient, and Effective” became the governmental slogan. Members of government and Parliament started to view themselves as responsible for policymaking and governance rather than influencing operations and practices, which were passed down to operate, to privatize, or to automate. This new action plan aimed to build competitive advantage and an effective business environment. Subsidies for businesses and public services were progressively eradicated to allow market forces to better allocate resources. Furthermore, the government started acting on its reform promises to reduce the size of the public sector. This was accomplished by streamlining governance with fewer ministries. These actions aim to make operations more effective by using less overhead and being more information technology-driven. The laws and regulations governing public services and their compensation are comparable to those governing private industries, and all restrictions on foreign companies were lifted. Public service managers are now partly compensated based on prescribed performance criteria. They have more flexibility to control the processes and outputs because the public sector is run as a business, with less job security for non-performers. The government is focused on the outcomes and effectiveness of the system, measured by international standards, and the operations are handled by the most qualified local and foreign experts in their fields.

The quality of private-led education and healthcare by the voicer system, which accounted for the largest share of governmental expenses, is now considered to rival the world’s best. Competition between formerly state-run enterprises forced the non-performers out of business while giving the best-in-class room to grow. In this private-led economy, the government views itself as the guardian of fair and effective competition and transparency. Joint public and private initiatives through the cooperation of industry, financial institutions, the government, and universities attract highly regarded scientists to settle in the country. Foreign experts who were internationally headhunted are given special privileges concerning social and tax responsibilities. However, common unskilled foreign and local workers receive far fewer privileges. Part of the appeal of the country is the attractive compensation and world-class research and teaching facilities in an internationalized environment.

Taxes and public duties, as well as some utility prices, are among the lowest in the world, while the speed and quality of public services towards individuals and businesses are among the world’s best, as Kuwait is consistently among the top five on the world competitive index, which started to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as moving companies to Kuwait now made a lot of business sense and minority rights were well protected by a transparent and effective legal system. Companies with relatively low salary expenditures as a part of their overall expenses and a high markup benefit from this trend. However, organizations with relatively high payrolls, such as production companies and those in the food industry, find it more difficult than ever to compete with cheap imports. Some of these companies have started to import cheap foreign labor or moved their production to countries with cheaper wages. Mergers, takeovers, or closures are common for companies that do not manage their profitability or are accused of wasting money on image building that has no internal value. Many previously governmentally protected operations have had to close because of their inability to compete internationally without governmental protection. Unskilled laborers have now experienced a sharp decrease in their standard of living, whereas technically skilled and digitally educated workers are much better off.

Women employees and women entrepreneurs were given special attention in this action plan as the constitution of Kuwait was changed to not allow any preferential treatment to be given to either gender. Under the plan, it was made sure that either gender was at least one-third represented on a board of major companies, as well as governmental support of any kind with special attention to funding entrepreneurial opportunities. Through KFAS and the National Fund, financial and other assistance was given to at least one-third of the quota for either gender. In order to give equal treatment and encourage more births, even men were allocated an equal amount of after-birth-leave as women. One-third of the time was allocated to men, one-third to women, and one-third to either one, chosen by common decision. In order to encourage more labour participation from women, vouchers were given for childcare services, but for working mothers only. This program was particularly successful as Kuwait’s economy grew significantly due to the increased participation of educated women in the workplace and it also increased entrepreneurial activities led and managed by women due to increased funding opportunities.

In the beginning, these private-led transformations stalled economic growth, and consumers took a wait-and-see approach. This transformation was not without discomfort, as it took a while for those who were laid off in the privatized or restricted public industries to look for other jobs, be re-educated, or train for more attractive industries. Imports became cheaper due to more price competition from a faster, more efficient, and transparent governmental system, increased self-service, and automation in logistics and delivery. The urban population has now grown in a planned, sustainable manner regarding effective and efficient public transportation. Many immigrants, re-immigrants, and locals living abroad were drawn back in because of the abundance of opportunities and the competitive international environment. The increase in the population of working-age residents in Kuwait, and the rise in the purchasing power of families led to a sustainable growth in childbirth soon after the transition to the private-led economy. However, Kuwait did not escape the larger cities’ problems, such as increased crime, pollution, and a greater disparity among those who have and those who do not [19,20,66,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,75].

4.2. Borrowing from the Future Generations—Inspired by Venezuela’s Past Development

At the beginning of 2022, there was a general feeling of optimism in State of Kuwait because oil prices started rising again. There was increased spending by corporations, individuals, and local and state governments. The opening of numerous new shops and service facilities met this great demand for goods and services after the lockdowns during the SARS-CoV 19 period. Public officials assumed that the surge in governmental income was a consequence of their efficient and effective fiscal oversight and management. As a result, various levels of government approved the construction of some impressive monuments, such as public buildings, parks, and road construction projects. These erected public buildings brought pride back to the image of the nation. One of the greatest increases in government expenditure was in the so-called rural development projects that were supposed to reverse the current flight to cities. Some people started to criticize the projects, calling them bridges, tunnels, or roads to nowhere, because of the lack of economic feasibility and little public utility in comparison to urban areas. Along with this was an increase in public utility subsidies for water, gasoline, and electricity that led to inefficiencies and overuse.

The government provided some lucrative contracts to corporations that were aligned with the existing power structure. This phenomenon caused a temporary rise in the supply of capital and excess demand for labor, which led to the inflation of the economy through higher wages. The central bank of the country tried to ease inflationary pressure by rapidly raising borrowing rates. This, however, did not have the intended effect, as the financial system, banks, and investment firms now believed in the new economic principles. High interest rates in a country with high oil reserves were, for them, an indicator of high stability in market financial instruments. In turn, these local companies used the proceeds from this investment to expand through mergers and acquisitions throughout the region. These financial markets displayed unparalleled growth, principally due to commonly used short-term US dollar loan agreements with the company’s assets as the only guarantee. As interest rates in the local currency were now high, local corporations as well as individuals started to use long-term loans issued in low-interest currencies such as the Japanese yen to finance investments that appeared as though they could only increase in value at the time.

After a few years of trade imbalance led by the high value of the local currency, which caused far more imports than exports, oil prices started to fall, which amplified the lowered governmental income significantly. The reluctance of the central bank to counter this phenomenon by building strong currency reserves caught the attention of currency speculators, who started with a small attack on the country’s currency, which was initially fended off by the central bank. After a major attack by international hedge funds, the currency peg to the US dollar finally broke, and the currency lost half of its value almost overnight. To avoid further currency devaluation, short-term interest rates were increased by several percent, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was brought in with a painful austerity plan, including a few years’ salary and a price freeze, which were conditions for the public loan payment reschedule. However, corporations and individuals who had financed their investments, expansion, and consumption had great problems meeting their loan payments as their financial commitments had doubled, measured in the local currency, resulting in mass bankruptcies and insolvencies. Export industries that were mostly related to the oil industry or financial services were not able to benefit from the lowering of the local currencies because loans toward operations were practically impossible. The reserves of banks and financial institutions were below the official limit and had to be taken over by the central bank in unprecedented widespread bank failures. Lowering the official lending limits only had a minor impact as international credit rating agencies downgraded the country’s credit rating, thus increasing the foreign cost of capital. The governments had to leverage their oil reserves to reschedule loans and financial commitments, and as such, they allowed foreign powers that had not had a large role previously to gain a stronghold in influencing how the country should be run.

Bleak predictions led to young professionals and expats seeking employment outside the country. Significantly, health workers and technically educated people left the country. The childbirth rate per woman declined to one due to the youth exodus and bleak economic outlook. The pension and life insurance resources were suspected of reaching insolvency soon due to the depreciation of their investments in stocks and nonpayment on both corporate and real estate bonds. This proved to be a vicious cycle as the age pyramid became top-heavy as fewer people were paying into the funds that were to finance future expenditure [76,77,78,79,80,81,82,83,84,85,86,87,106].

4.3. Strategic Stagnation Scenario—Inspired by Lebanon’s Past Development

To end the political deadlock between the Kuwaiti government and parliament that had been going on for 15 years, a new pact was formed, giving the parliament much more operational power than had belonged to the government previously. The governance of ministries, along with other forms of government, was split between various factions of parliament that used the opportunities to secure their new-found power positions by placing their (tribe or sectarian) people in most of the top positions. As these hires were not purely merit-based, the various governmental factions became increasingly less functional while expanding in scale and scope when their bosses increased their influence with more hiring, starting new projects that were often awarded to members of their in-group. Due to international unrest, high oil prices initially managed to pay for the extra expenses that these governmental inefficiencies cost. However, when the oil prices came back down, issues started emerging, as it was clear that the deficit spending was grossly unsustainable, and reforms were desperately needed. None of the government factions wanted to relinquish the power domain that they believed they had earned, so the national debt mounted. The sale of some national property and the use of national funds started to fund the gridlock in government.

A stagnation and non-growth period led the public to realize that this system of equality among groups governing the country was not sustainable and would lead to a continuous decline in standards of living for citizens. Most realized and agreed that there was a general need to lower benefits, social payments, and the size of the public sector. A nationwide consensus was reached under the threat that the largest and most prominent industrial private corporations would otherwise move their production abroad if reforms were not made. Notwithstanding sincere goodwill and the best of intentions, the system that was set up to protect social welfare and equality among different group members proved difficult to change or eliminate as everybody protected what they perceived as earned rights and privileges. Politicians were hesitant to take on the changes, as it was self-evident that such an endeavour would eliminate their prospective political careers. Nevertheless, a seemingly ambitious corporate tax deduction bill was passed, and promises were made to lower the size of government and citizen entitlements. The market, though, did not deem these efforts credible or lasting and called them “too little too late,” which proved to be a self-fulfilling prophecy [87,88,89,90,91,92,93].

5. Discussion: Paint the Big Picture and Provoke an Informed Discussion and a Decision-Making Process (Step 8)

The outcome of this exercise will be profoundly influenced by political, cultural, and regional contexts. However, the purpose of this report is not to build on or confirm prior beliefs, but to create a wider discussion of future opportunities and threats by painting a “big picture” as per Figure 6 with a summary of the findings, and to provide relationships between today’s actions and their medium- to long-term social and economic consequences based on what has transpired in other similar circumstances. It is hoped that this study will provoke thought processes that will lead to strategies that might become policies and procedures that are based on informed utilitarian value judgements rather than calculated short-term zero-sum benefit analysis.

Illustrated examples in the form of future scenarios were formed from this exercise through the first seven steps of possible futures that could come to pass, depending on decisions, actions, and developments that are taken in the very near future. The purpose of such a mental picture is to enable people to overcome their innate resistance to change, as they could possibly see the long-term consequences of their deeds, or at least what has come to pass in other areas given similar circumstances. Such illustrations might open a mental horizon to facilitate the seizing of new opportunities ahead while avoiding the undesirable effects of misconceived actions, even though some short-term gains may have to be sacrificed. People, companies, and politicians will experience different outcomes from these changes, and will respond differently to these challenges, regardless of which policies are put in place. To guard the transparency and objectivity of the scenarios, many representatives from as many different interest groups as possible need to be given a chance to comment on these three scenarios, the processes, and the future challenges and opportunities that they present to the State of Kuwait.

These scenarios are presented as discussion points about the political possibility of widespread reforms. The study of economics will suggest that lowering corporate taxes, decreasing public spending, and internationalizing the business environment are likely to bring about economic growth. If excessive globalization occurs, is it worth the sacrifice of losing the national identity, deteriorating the country’s citizens’ equality by widening the income distribution gap, and abolishing relationships between groups that have been formed over generations? One can ask whether higher gross domestic product growth alone will necessarily lead to a better quality of life for most citizens, especially if it means a higher crime rate, deteriorating health through pollution, and traffic congestion. What about the family and religious values that have acted as glue for the fabric of society for so long?

These thought-provoking questions can be used as an argument for increasing the social welfare network to protect the health and environmental standards that could limit outside competition in the pursuit of equality and that might crowd out incentive innovation and entrepreneurship, as the scenario for strategic stagnation suggests. Whether politicians will continue to take advantage of a disproportionate electoral system and misallocate public funds in areas where they are of the least value and do not generate the greatest good remains to be seen. Will the politicians and government convince the public and private sectors that deficit spending is acceptable due to some new economic principles, that are likely to warrant favourable evolution in the future? These types of practices could lead to the growth of the economy, especially if economic growth is based on capital increasing from external temporary monetary windfalls, which are used to deploy people and capital goods in a non-sustainable manner, as illustrated in the scenario of “Borrowing from the Future”.

The public choices of the citizens and those who choose to lead will form decisions in the policymaking process about how public expenditure and income are gathered and to what end. The principles for such conclusions are expected to be based on individualist and collectivist value systems that constitute what “quality of life” means to them. Whatever the conclusion might be, let us hope that it will be rooted not only in evidence-based reasoning and logical conclusions, but also in the morals, values, and ethics that are most important.

Although this study is not primary research, it draws from numerous sources of secondary research. This paper synthesizes a wide range of research in different countries to posit possible outcomes for Kuwait. The theoretical approach intertwines socio-economic studies of public choice with stakeholder theory in a model of the market economy. It is hoped that the theoretical contribution and practical application will be useful to a wide range of researchers. Scenarios are not a forecast, and we must always take care to ensure the scenarios’ integrity and follow the data when projecting the future. There is a bias in terms of which countries’ pasts to choose from and which facts to choose from, but we must avoid assumptions and use evidence-based learning. We must not judge the variables before learning about the data and allow the journey to determine the destination. There is no substitute for hard research, so we must gather and use the latest reports, expert opinions, and recent research on the subject. The impact of this exercise, assuming that it reaches a critical mass of influential decision-making Kuwaitis, will be profoundly influenced by political, cultural, and regional motivations. The purpose of this study is not to confirm preconceived ideas, but to create a wide discussion of future opportunities and threats by painting a ‘big picture’ with the summary of the findings. It is hoped that this study will lead to strategies and policies based on informed utilitarian value judgements.

There have been several attempts at economic scenario forecasting for Kuwait and other countries. Shell performed some significant strategic research before investing in Kuwait’s infrastructure. The South African administration forecast a favourable long-term scenario called “The Flight of the Flamingos”. In a paper commissioned by the finance minister in 2001 for the Icelandic economy, the first author of this paper predicted a scenario that was fulfilled in the 2008 global economic crisis. Future Kuwait could follow the pattern of Singapore (prosperity), Lebanon (stagnation), or Venezuela (decline), depending on the choices that are made by policymakers in the next 10 to 20 years [107]. Also see Appendix A [108].

6. Limitations and Future Studies

This study is a qualitative meta-analysis using a critical interpretive synthesis that narrates three future and equally plausible scenarios of social and economic development in the State of Kuwait over the next 15 years. Primary statistical data could have been researched for a better review of the current situation in Kuwait, but the approach relies on existing secondary qualitative data available to all. As a result, the identification of the major factors contributing to social and economic development could have been found more accurately, but the secondary research is clear enough. The reliability of the project could have been increased with primary data, as they have the capability to provide more refined research and significant evidence. In this way, the discussion of future scenarios could be strengthened in the future by other researchers.

For its application, planning sessions with the Arab Planning Institute, Kuwait Financial Authority, and Ministry of Finance would be helpful. Feedback, updates, opinions, and suggestions could be collected and documented in a qualitative research format and used for further studies of consensus-making for the Kuwaiti public, policymakers, and leaders. It is notable that short-term sacrifices may have to be made to ensure a long-term sustainable future for Kuwait in line with Vision 2035.

7. Conclusions and Implications

This study was conducted to find the most relevant data and information regarding possible scenarios for socio-economic development for in the State of Kuwait. Three equally plausible futures were suggested for Kuwait, projecting different points of view. The study followed a secondary method for collecting significant qualitative data for scenario planning. This provided knowledge from past studies, and the relevant issues were applied to Kuwait.

If Kuwait implements effective policies that encourage the transparency, effectiveness, and efficiency of governmental services, attracting direct foreign investment (DFI) and world-class expertise, small business entrepreneurship development, the privatization of state enterprises, and the sustainable and efficient use of natural resources, then the road to prosperity will be followed, as the example of Singapore demonstrates. If these structural and business changes are not conducted, stagnation is inevitable, as in Lebanon, or, in the worst case, the overuse of natural and financial resources followed by a decline is very possible, as in Venezuela.