Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost and Hydrological Processes in Northeast China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Sources
2.3. Methods
2.3.1. Analysis of Area Change of Permafrost
2.3.2. Thickness Analysis of Permafrost
2.3.3. Estimation of Ice Content in Permafrost
2.3.4. Hydrological Simulation of River Basins in Permafrost Regions of Northeast China
2.3.5. Accuracy Verification of Hydrological Model Simulation Results
3. Results
Patterns and Trends of Permafrost and Runoff in the Permafrost Regions of Northeast China
4. Discussion
- The trends of monthly precipitation and runoff in each basin do not correspond exactly to each other. For example, in the Nuomin River Basin, the maximum precipitation and the maximum runoff do not occur in the same year; the maximum precipitation occurred in 2003, and the maximum runoff was in 2018 during the study period. To reveal the relationship between precipitation and runoff in the studied permafrost area, further analysis of precipitation and runoff distribution within basins from 2000 to 2020 (Figure 4a), as well as the fugacity state of permafrost in the basin, was carried out to infer three different types of runoff patterns due to different degrees of permafrost degradation in the permafrost area of Northeast China under the influence of climate, as shown in Figure 4b–d.
- Surface runoff is mainly generated directly by precipitation in areas where permafrost is thick and the active layer thickness is thin, and the state of the permafrost deposit tends to be stable. Most of these permafrost areas in Northeast China are concentrated in the higher elevation ridges of the Greater and Lesser Khingan Mountains and the higher latitude regions of Northeast China. These areas tend to have lush vegetation coverage and are less affected by human activities, and precipitation is retained by the vegetation and then falls to the surface. Due to the small thickness of the active layer, the thick permafrost layer becomes impermeable to intercepting water, which affects the infiltration of water. When the amount of water infiltrated in the soil is greater than the maximum infiltration volume that can be achieved by the soil, which forms saturated excess runoff and forms a saturated thin layer in the unsaturated layer under the surface, the precipitation that cannot infiltrate into the “active layer” directly recharges the river through surface runoff.
- The active layer is thicker in regions where permafrost degradation is more significant compared to stable permafrost regions. When the intensity of rainfall is less than the infiltration rate of the soil, it is difficult to form a saturated thin layer on the soil surface, and precipitation has little chance to form surface runoff. At this time, the precipitation infiltrates into the “active layer” on the permafrost to form a submerged flow to recharge the river. Increasing river runoff from the submerged flow to recharge the river generally lags by 1–2 months. For example, in the Nuomin River Basin in July 2011, the highest precipitation for the year reached 197.4 mm, and the runoff in the Nuomin River Basin reached 213 m3/s in August, which was the maximum of the year. The maximum runoff lags behind the maximum precipitation by about 1 month, which indicates that the precipitation infiltrates into the “active layer” for about 1 month and then collects in the river water.
- At the edge of the degraded permafrost regions, such as the southern boundary of permafrost in Northeast China, where permafrost is extremely weak, water-resistant effects are extremely weak and have less influence on the infiltration process of water. The correspondence between runoff and precipitation as well as temperature in these areas is not significant. According to the principle of water balance, with the source of runoff recharge in the basin, in addition to the above-mentioned precipitation and permafrost water release, there is also pressurized water upwelling that recharges the river in addition to other ways. However, due to the amount of permafrost melting being low, evaporation and runoff in the basins are no longer significantly greater than the amount of precipitation.
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Number | Watershed Name | Longitude and Latitude | Area (km2) | Air Temp (°C) | Elevation (m) | Length (km)/Width (m)/Depth (m) | Annual Runoff (108 m3) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a | Emuer | 122°21′ E~122°22′ E, 53°29′ N~53°27′ N | 16,105.9 | −4.4 | 246–1383 | 469/20~150/25 | 27.32 |
Pangu | 123°20′ E~124°35′ E, 52°22′ N~53°09′ N | 3631.9 | −4.4 | 236–1375 | 165/20~45/1.2 | 14.3 | |
b | Huma | 122°12′ E~126°43′ E, 51°17′ N~52°41′ N | 31,196.1 | −2.7 | 160–1518 | 524/50~200/1.2 | 67.51 |
c | Nuomin | 122°12′ E~126°43′ E, 51°17′ N~52°41′ N | 25,740.7 | −1.2 | 165–1410 | 466/60~170/2.2 | 46.41 |
d | Taoer | 120°10′ E~124°00′ E, 45°42′ N~47°15′ N | 8414.1 | 4.5 | 253–1745 | 563/10~50/1.0 | 8.93 |
e | Hailaer | 117°51′ E~122°27′ E, 47°33′ N~50°16′ N | 50,446.9 | −0.89 | 534–1710 | 622/50~200/1.2 | 37.81 |
f | Hulun | 117°00′ E~117°42′ E, 48°30′ N~49°21′ N | 2338.9 | −0.24 | 447–1002 | 5.7 (Lake depth) | 13.62 (max/min is 21.29) |
g | Gen | 119°23′ E~122°42′ E, 50°14′ N~51°13′ N | 15,787.9 | −4.6 | 512–1440 | 469/20~150/25 | 20.20 |
h | Jiliu | 120°35′ E~122°50′ E, 51°02′ N~52°30′ N | 15,771.7 | −4.3 | 417–1512 | 165/20~45/1.2 | 42.31 |
i | Kuerbin | 128°19′ E~129°31′ E 48°15′ N~49°26′ N | 5826.2 | −0.5 | 86–792 | 221/30~65/1.8 | 2.72 |
j | Tangwang | 128°8′ E~129°54′ E 46°36′ N~48°44′ N | 20,699.4 | −1.7 | 174–798 | 523/90–130/3.0 | 55.20 |
k | Balan | 128°36′ E~129°58′ E 46°19′ N~46°52′ N | 2075.6 | 2.5 | 190–1029 | 108/20–60/0.7 | 5.55 |
l | Xibei | 128°44′ E~129°34′ E 46°5′ N~46°28′ N | 794.5 | 2.4 | 102–1121 | 74/15–28/1.1 | 15.21 |
m | Chalin | 128°44′ E~129°54′ E 45°57′ N~46°34′ N | 1191.8 | 2.5 | 196–1424 | 91/20–70/1.1 | 5.16 |
n | Hulan | 128°8′ E~129°33′ E 46°36′ N~47°18′ N | 9953.8 | 2.5 | 134–1350 | 523/90–130/3.0 | 42.29 |
o | Numin | 126°55′ E~128°20′ E 46°50′ N~48°06′ N | 3309.5 | 2.1 | 76–624 | 265/20–50/0.8 | 29.3 |
p | Zhan | 127°27′ E~128°29′ E 48°02′ N~49°21′ N | 6515.1 | −2.1 | 187–656 | 260/40–100/1.7 | 12.13 |
Watershed Number | Name | Precipitation (mm) | Evaporation (mm) | Forest coverage (%) | Thickness of active layer (m) | R2 | Ens |
a | Emuer | 460.4 | 886.6 | 76.6 | 0.3–1.0 | 0.79 | 0.81 |
Pangu | 463.2 | 881.1 | 75.3 | 0.4–1.2 | 0.76 | 0.73 | |
b | Huma | 483.5 | 905.7 | 70.7 | 0.4–1.8 | 0.83 | 0.85 |
c | Nuomin | 480.2 | 1050 | 70.2 | 1.3–3.0 | 0.85–0.87 | 0.85 |
d | Taoer | 435.4 | 1780 | 65.3 | — | 0.66–0.89 | 0.65–0.89 |
e | Hailaer | 421.3 | 965.2 | 25.2 | 1.6–2.5 | 0.899 | 0.873 |
f | Hulun | 285.6 | 1400.2 | Typical grassland lake | — | 0.875 | 0.94 |
g | Genhe | 411.8 | 932.4 | 90.2 | 0.9–1.6 | 0.88 | 0.86 |
h | Jiliu | 430.3 | 889.6 | 73.6 | 0.4–1.3 | 0.82 | 0.84 |
i | Kuerbin | 617.4 | 930.7 | 73.9 | 1.4–1.8 | 0.79 | 0.83 |
j | Tangwang | 627.9 | 805.0 | 80.3 | 1.4–1.8 | 0.83 | 0.87 |
k | Balan | 616.3 | 1296.6 | 77.5 | 1.6–2.0 | 0.86 | 0.89 |
l | Xibei | 610.0 | 1368.1 | 74.6 | 1.6–2.0 | 0.83 | 0.85 |
m | Chalin | 615.5 | 1349.7 | 73.2 | 1.8–2.0 | 0.81 | 0.84 |
n | Hulan | 576 | 1182.3 | 76.1 | 1.8–2.0 | 0.79 | 0.82 |
o | Numin | 544.3 | 1238.8 | 78.3 | 1.6–2.0 | 0.85 | 0.86 |
p | Zhan | 610.0 | 1388.2 | 77.1 | 1.4–1.8 | 0.85 | 0.88 |
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Shan, W.; Wang, Y.; Guo, Y.; Zhang, C.; Liu, S.; Qiu, L. Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost and Hydrological Processes in Northeast China. Sustainability 2023, 15, 4974. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15064974
Shan W, Wang Y, Guo Y, Zhang C, Liu S, Qiu L. Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost and Hydrological Processes in Northeast China. Sustainability. 2023; 15(6):4974. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15064974
Chicago/Turabian StyleShan, Wei, Yan Wang, Ying Guo, Chengcheng Zhang, Shuai Liu, and Lisha Qiu. 2023. "Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost and Hydrological Processes in Northeast China" Sustainability 15, no. 6: 4974. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15064974
APA StyleShan, W., Wang, Y., Guo, Y., Zhang, C., Liu, S., & Qiu, L. (2023). Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost and Hydrological Processes in Northeast China. Sustainability, 15(6), 4974. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15064974