The Impact of Green Finance Pilot Policy on Carbon Intensity in Chinese Cities—Based on the Synthetic Control Method
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. Green Finance and Carbon Intensity
2.2. The Effect of GFPP
3. Theoretical Analysis and Hypotheses
- (1)
- Pilot cities such as Guangzhou have created a risk compensation mechanism for green finance, indicating that the government provides risk compensation for 20% of the loss to financial institutions that engage in green financial business. Before the implementation of GFPP, financial institutions were not actively expanding the green finance business, since investments in green projects entail a long payback period and are unable to provide stable returns. In addition, pilot cities have established “the green enterprise and project identification standards”, avoiding additional identification procedures by financial institutions. This is conducive to reducing the operating costs of financial institutions and improving their economic benefits, thus encouraging financial institutions to set up green finance divisions in pilot cities.
- (2)
- Pilot cities have introduced talent subsidies and preferential policies, attracting the agglomeration of green finance professionals. Developing green finance businesses requires professional support, such as green finance product pricing, and quantitative analysis of green projects’ environmental costs. The scarcity of professionals makes it difficult for financial institutions to carry out the green finance business. Consequently, pilot cities provide a favorable institutional environment for the agglomeration of financial resources, such as capital and labor forces, thus promoting the development of green finance. Furthermore, this study proposes Hypothesis 2.
- (1)
- Pilot cities have strengthened the infrastructure construction of green finance. For example, pilot cities have built green industrial demonstration parks, attracting clusters of green enterprises including electronic information, renewable energy, and high-tech industries. In addition, pilot cities have strengthened the digital construction of green finance, such as the green project database and green enterprise financing platform. Strengthening the digital construction of green finance can help emerging enterprises make technological advancements and enhance innovation abilities, thereby reduce the carbon intensity [35,36]. This innovative green financing mode combines online and offline financing, thus reducing transaction costs on both the supply and demand sides.
- (2)
- Pilot cities have formulated “green financial institution evaluation standards”, encouraging financial institutions to provide various green finance products, such as green credit, bonds, and insurance, thus motivating enterprises’ green technology innovation [29]. Due to the long R&D cycle and great capital demand, it is challenging to gain direct economic benefits in a short time, which makes green enterprises often face the problem of “difficult and costly financing” [37]. However, implementing the green credit policy decreases loan interest rates for green enterprises, which can reduce their debt costs, thus leading to an incentive effect on green innovation activities [38]. Simultaneously, to enrich financing ways for enterprises, pilot cities encourage enterprises to issue a range of green debt instruments, such as directional financing instruments and asset-backed notes. Issuing green bonds can provide stable and long-term financial support to emerging enterprises and improve their technological innovation ability [39,40].
4. Methodology
4.1. Model Building
4.2. Data and Variable Description
5. Empirical Results
5.1. The Impact of GFPP on Carbon Intensity
5.2. Validity Test
5.3. Robustness Test
5.3.1. In-Time Placebo Test
5.3.2. Compare the Ratios of the Post-RMSPE to Pre-RMSPE
5.3.3. Replace the Carbon Intensity Calculation Method
5.3.4. The SCM-DID Method
5.4. Mechanism Analysis
6. Discussion
7. Conclusions
7.1. Main Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
7.2. Limitations and Further Research
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Baotou | Hangzhou | Lianyungang | Shangrao | Xiangyang |
Bengbu | Harbin | Linyi | Shenyang | Xianning |
Binzhou | Hefei | Lishui | Siping | Yancheng |
Changchun | Hohhot | Liupanshui | Suqian | Yangquan |
Changde | Huaihua | Longyan | Suzhou | Yantai |
Changsha | Huangshi | Luoyang | Taiyuan | Yuncheng |
Changzhi | Jiaxing | Mudanjiang | Taizhou | Zhengzhou |
Changzhou | Jinan | Nanning | Tangshan | Zhenjiang |
Chifeng | Jingmen | Ningbo | Tongliao | Zhoushan |
Dalian | Jingzhou | Pingdingshan | Tongling | Zibo |
Dezhou | Jining | Qiqihar | Weihai | |
Ganzhou | Jinzhong | Sanmenxia | Wuhan | |
Haikou | Jixi | Shanghai | Wuhu |
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Green Finance Reform | Innovative Measures of Pilot Cities |
---|---|
Green finance risk compensation |
|
Green finance talent subsidies |
|
Green finance infrastructure construction |
|
Green finance digital transformation |
|
Green enterprise and project identification standards |
|
Green financial institution evaluation standards |
|
Variable | Abbreviation | Definition | Obs | Mean | SD | Min | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon intensity | CI | Ratio of carbon emissions to real GDP (tons/ yuan) | 804 | 3.13 | 3.04 | 0.42 | 25.03 |
Economic level | PGDP | Real GDP per capita ( yuan) | 804 | 4.14 | 2.35 | 0.77 | 12.41 |
Economic structure | ES | Proportion of secondary industry in the GDP (%) | 804 | 47.30 | 9.49 | 16.51 | 74.73 |
Urbanization rate | UB | Ratio of urban population to total population (%) | 804 | 57.75 | 13.52 | 22.32 | 89.6 |
Population density | POP | Ratio of year-end total population to urban area (person/) | 804 | 498.04 | 337.20 | 45.87 | 2316.67 |
Fiscal dependence | FS | Ratio of general public budgetary expenditure to GDP | 804 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.24 |
Industrial enterprise structure | IE | Natural logarithm of number of industrial enterprises (pcs) | 804 | 7.12 | 1.02 | 4.74 | 9.84 |
Service industry level | SI | Proportion of tertiary industry in the GDP (%) | 804 | 43.37 | 9.96 | 23.09 | 79.23 |
Opening level | OP | Ratio of actual use of foreign direct investment to GDP | 804 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Financial agglomeration | FI | Ratio of the year-end loan balances of financial institutions to GDP | 804 | 1.12 | 0.70 | 0.12 | 7.45 |
Green innovation | GI | Green invention patents granted per 10,000 individuals (pcs) | 804 | 0.61 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 5.24 |
Predictor Variable | Guangzhou | Huzhou | Quzhou | Guiyang | Nanchang | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Value | Synthetic Value | Real Value | Synthetic Value | Real Value | Synthetic Value | Real Value | Synthetic Value | Real Value | Synthetic Value | |
PGDP | 8.76 | 4.69 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 3.18 | 2.59 | 2.53 | 2.74 | 4.71 | 4.82 |
ES | 34.84 | 38.32 | 52.86 | 48.14 | 51.74 | 49.30 | 41.08 | 40.89 | 55.23 | 53.09 |
UB | 84.66 | 71.64 | 55.01 | 56.40 | 46.47 | 46.93 | 70.48 | 56.52 | 68.31 | 68.85 |
POP | 1109.1 | 594.8 | 449.7 | 450.1 | 286.3 | 311.0 | 466.3 | 469.7 | 687.2 | 577.3 |
FS | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
IE | 8.54 | 6.78 | 7.94 | 7.70 | 6.95 | 6.63 | 6.31 | 7.05 | 7.02 | 7.79 |
SI | 63.59 | 56.42 | 40.06 | 40.10 | 39.94 | 34.85 | 54.27 | 47.79 | 39.74 | 42.37 |
FDI | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
CI (2008) | 1.22 | 1.22 | 2.70 | 2.68 | 4.73 | 4.78 | 3.79 | 3.53 | 1.15 | 1.19 |
CI (2010) | 1.09 | 1.10 | 2.04 | 2.06 | 4.39 | 4.41 | 3.14 | 3.09 | 1.12 | 1.08 |
CI (2012) | 0.87 | 0.88 | 1.58 | 1.60 | 3.69 | 3.72 | 2.69 | 2.69 | 0.98 | 0.93 |
CI (2014) | 0.84 | 0.85 | 1.38 | 1.44 | 3.77 | 3.75 | 2.49 | 2.10 | 0.75 | 0.84 |
CI (2016) | 0.82 | 0.81 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 3.15 | 3.15 | 2.16 | 2.16 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
Variables | (1) | (2) |
---|---|---|
CI | CI | |
did | −0.754 *** | −0.425 *** |
(0.163) | (0.093) | |
PGDP | 0.182 *** | |
(0.044) | ||
ES | -0.132 | |
(0.087) | ||
UB | 0.000 | |
(0.038) | ||
POP | 0.001 | |
(0.002) | ||
FS | 1.426 | |
(1.093) | ||
IE | −0.498 | |
(0.400) | ||
SI | −0.166 | |
(0.107) | ||
FDI | −7.546 | |
(4.474) | ||
_cons | 2.295 *** | 19.051 |
(0.020) | (11.268) | |
Year FE | No | Yes |
City FE | No | Yes |
Observations | 96 | 96 |
Adj. R-Square | 0.207 | 0.874 |
Variables | Financial Agglomeration | Green Innovation | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
did | 0.221 ** | 0.292 *** | 0.919 *** | 0.749 *** |
(0.109) | (0.104) | (0.253) | (0.197) | |
PGDP | −0.070 *** | 0.318 *** | ||
(0.020) | (0.062) | |||
ES | −0.019 ** | −0.002 | ||
(0.008) | (0.011) | |||
UB | 0.005 | 0.002 | ||
(0.004) | (0.005) | |||
POP | 0.000 | 0.001 | ||
(0.001) | (0.001) | |||
FS | −0.462 | −1.238 | ||
(0.891) | (1.209) | |||
IE | −0.063 | 0.027 | ||
(0.085) | (0.095) | |||
SI | −0.014 | 0.000 | ||
(0.009) | (0.014) | |||
FDI | −2.538** | −3.228 | ||
(1.009) | (2.461) | |||
cons | 1.114 *** | 3.075 *** | 0.590 *** | −1.074 |
(0.002) | (0.832) | (0.005) | (1.038) | |
Year FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
City FE | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
Observations | 804 | 804 | 804 | 804 |
Adj. R-Square | 0.824 | 0.829 | 0.767 | 0.836 |
Pilot City | The Number of Green Finance Divisions |
---|---|
Huzhou | 34 banks set up green finance division and 1 insurance company set up green insurance division. |
Quzhou | 47 banks set up green finance division and 8 insurance companies set up green insurance division. |
Guangzhou | 10 banks set up green finance division and 1 insurance company set up green insurance division. |
Guiyang | 12 banks set up green finance division and 1 insurance company set up green insurance division. |
Nanchang | 8 banks set up green finance division and 3 insurance companies set up green insurance division. |
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Feng, L.; Sun, Z. The Impact of Green Finance Pilot Policy on Carbon Intensity in Chinese Cities—Based on the Synthetic Control Method. Sustainability 2023, 15, 11571. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511571
Feng L, Sun Z. The Impact of Green Finance Pilot Policy on Carbon Intensity in Chinese Cities—Based on the Synthetic Control Method. Sustainability. 2023; 15(15):11571. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511571
Chicago/Turabian StyleFeng, Libin, and Zhengcheng Sun. 2023. "The Impact of Green Finance Pilot Policy on Carbon Intensity in Chinese Cities—Based on the Synthetic Control Method" Sustainability 15, no. 15: 11571. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511571