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Article

Spatial Modeling for Residential Optimization in Dukuh Atas Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) Area, Jakarta, Indonesia

by
Ridho Masruri Irsal
*,
Hayati Sari Hasibuan
and
Sylvira Ananda Azwar
School of Environmental Science, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2023, 15(1), 530; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010530
Submission received: 14 November 2022 / Revised: 23 December 2022 / Accepted: 25 December 2022 / Published: 28 December 2022
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainable Urban and Rural Development)
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Abstract

:
Jakarta, as a metropolitan city, has a complexity of urban problems, one of which is the shape of the city, which is spread out and results in people’s dependence on motorized vehicles. Transit-oriented development (TOD) areas are one alternative to solving these problems by increasing density and accessibility between destinations and integrating modes of public transportation. This article aims to predict the occupancy density that has not been optimized by vertical development to optimize the use of space in the Dukuh Atas TOD area through spatial analysis. This study uses quantitative analysis through the Geographic Information System (GIS) method by analyzing land suitability through overlay techniques, calculating environmental carrying capacity in residential areas, analyzing building density index using the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) method, and extracting dense areas by superimposing on Floor Area Ratio (FAR) data. Based on the results of the conformity analysis, it was found that there were areas that were not suitable for approximately 16.33% of the total area of the Dukuh Atas TOD area, especially in the western part. The calculation of environmental carrying capacity results shows that the TOD area of Dukuh Atas can still accommodate 2.05 times the current population. To re-optimize it, an allocation of residential density area is generated following the FAR in Jakarta’s Detailed Spatial Plan so that the maximum number of floors can be achieved. The results of these calculations can produce predictions of residential needs that are more detailed and consistent with the conditions of the TOD area in Dukuh Atas.

1. Introduction

Nowadays, cities face various problems, including increasing population growth. In 2018, more than 50% of the world’s population lived in urban areas, which is predicted to reach 68% by 2050 [1]. It is estimated that there will be an increase in population by 70% of the world population today in 2050, and around 66% of the increase in population will occur in urban areas [2,3]. Jakarta, a metropolitan city with an area of 4384 km2 and a population density of 13,000 people/km2, whose population has reached 10.56 million people with a population growth rate of 0.92%, has a complex issue, one of which is sprawl, where the rapid growth of the city restructures the shape of the city to be scattered and increases individual dependence on motor vehicles [4,5,6]. The urban sprawl phenomenon as a form of urban growth has a tendency to extend the urban areas to their peripheries, which growth also affects the demand for supporting infrastructures such as roads, clean water networks, wastewater networks, and facilities such as schools, commercial, residential, and recreational areas [7]. This phenomenon also causes inequality or gaps between planned and unplanned areas [8,9,10]. Dependence on motorized vehicles is shaped by a transportation system that responds to the spatial shape of the city, which spreads out further, giving a domino effect on increasing congestion and greenhouse gas emissions [11,12]. Within ten years, from 2010 to 2020, the number of motorized vehicles increased significantly and was dominated by private vehicles. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics in Jakarta Province, motorcycle sales increased by 69.21% in 2020, while car sales increased by 23.7%.
Urban planners use various solutions to reduce the problem of urban mobility and population density with the concept of a compact city, where the main principles are compactness, density, mixed land use, sustainable transportation, and green spaces [13,14]. As a result of the spread of activities, urban problems and complexities such as urban sprawl, high-density population, and reliance on private motorized vehicles have increased the development of compact cities that contain an integration of mass transit systems, one of which uses the concept of transit-oriented development (TOD), which develops land use by considering integration with the transportation system where transportation nodes such as stations and terminals are located [15,16]. Along with that, the built environment also influenced travel demand with three principal dimensions known as “3Ds”: (1) density, (2) diversity, and (3) design, which further conclude to add two more principal dimensions: (4) destination accessibility and (5) distance to transit. These principles were adapted to TOD principles and became known in the American planning community as the 5Ds [17,18,19].
On the local level, the TOD concept has already been implemented in Indonesia through the construction of the MRT (Mass Rapid Transit) in Jakarta, the LRT (Light Rail Transit) in Palembang and Jakarta, as well as the Jakarta-Bandung HSR (High-Speed Rail). This development resulted in an increase of up to 55% in LRT daily passengers. Research has concluded that TOD significantly maximizes transit ridership due to mixed-land use [20,21,22]. A few researchers focused on TOD’s potential applicability in the Jakarta Metropolitan Area using sustainability principles, and as a result, the development could reduce congestion by shifting away from private vehicles, increasing transit ridership, and improving mobility options such as walking and cycling, resulting in a reduction of emissions and energy conservation. Adding to that, the Dukuh Atas and Lebak Bulus TOD areas also created a socio-economic phenomenon related to the stable condition for mobility movements due to short travel and transit times, the proliferation of commercial areas, and changes in the quality of life that emerged as a beneficial factor. The environmental carrying capacity of these two TOD areas is also in a condition that has not been exceeded [23,24,25].
Regarding mobility, the Dukuh Atas TOD area is served by at least five mass public transportation systems, each with a medium-to-high capacity at each stop. However, based on previous research, it was found that the pedestrian metric value in the Dukuh Atas TOD area still needs to be fully achieved. This is because pedestrian paths, bicycle lanes, and several other facilities still need to cover all available public road segments within a 500-m radius of the transportation stop point [26,27]. As a result, the TOD concept is expected to be an alternative or a solution for reducing Jakarta’s level of congestion, one of which is the Dukuh Atas TOD area, which has become one of Jakarta’s TOD-based regional developments [26,27,28]. Furthermore, density is also one of the TOD principles in the 5Ds, but its applicability in the Dukuh Atas TOD area is still not suitable. This could be because landed-house buildings still make up most of the residential buildings; the number and density of workers in the area are still not optimally distributed, and it is still not best to use the minimum average Floor Area Ratio (FAR) value in transit areas, causing the percentage of total conformity of the density aspect of the TOD concept to be only 50% [29,30].
Meanwhile, housing is one of the most critical issues related to population change. It has been found that among the socio-cultural characteristics of people living in transit areas, housing characteristics play the most important role in reshaping the local mobility culture and determining the identity of the people living in the transit areas [24]. The concept of TOD also does not stop at the exchange of modes; more than that, TOD can be seen as a tool to integrate land use and transportation systems with the concepts of density and diversity, and in residential contexts where it is characterized by very high density, integration between land use and mass transit systems is encouraged from an early stage, not only to manage land density but also to restructure settlements [19,31,32].
As seen in previous research, there have been few studies on housing aspects in TOD development, with the majority focusing on the environment and transit ridership. It means that the scope must be seen at the city scale during development through land use planning. Therefore, this research intends to analyze the housing density to optimize land capability using a geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing techniques in the Dukuh Atas TOD Area. Through the spatial analysis, this research suspects land availability in the Dukuh Atas TOD area, which could be a suitable location to develop for residential optimization. This study is located in the Dukuh Atas TOD area, which was chosen because Dukuh Atas is one of the busiest TOD areas in Jakarta, with four modes of mass transportation in place (MRT Jakarta, Commuter Line, TransJakarta, and Airport railways), and it is important to create compactness and support the TOD concept by providing high-density housing. This study focused on an area within a radius of 400 to 800 m from the transit stop, which was considered suitable for walking distance and could become part of a network for the transit system, which aims to realign urban regions in terms of rail transport [33].

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area

The study area of this paper is the Dukuh Atas TOD area, located in Central Jakarta, Indonesia (6°12′07.4″ S, 106°49′22.5″ E). Three districts are included in the TOD area: Menteng District, Setiabudi District, and Tanah Abang District (Figure 1). The Dukuh Atas TOD area is one of the TOD areas developed by the DKI Jakarta provincial government by appointing PT. MRT Jakarta as the manager of the area. Dukuh Atas TOD area delineation is issued in Jakarta Governor’s Regulation No. 107 of 2020 (https://jdih.jakarta.go.id (accessed on 1 March 2022)). Other developing TOD areas, such as the Lebak Bulus TOD area, the Fatmawati TOD area, the Blok M–Sisingamangaraja TOD area, and the Istora–Senayan TOD area, are contained in the Jakarta Governor’s Regulation No. 55 of 2020 (https://jdih.jakarta.go.id/himpunan/produkhukum_detail/10661 (accessed on 1 March 2022)), the Jakarta Governor’s Regulation No. 56 of 2020 (https://jdih.jakarta.go.id/himpunan/produkhukum_detail/10662 (accessed on 1 March 2022)), the Jakarta Governor’s Regulation No. 57 of 2020 (https://jdih.jakarta.go.id/himpunan/produkhukum_detail/10663 (accessed on 1 March 2022)) and the DKI Jakarta Governor’s Regulation No.99 of 2020 (https://jdih.jakarta.go.id/himpunan/produkhukum_detail (accessed on 1 March 2022)).
This study used the Urban Design Guidelines in the Dukuh Atas TOD area delineation, which contains 146.7 ha and is located in the heart of Jakarta City. The delineation area of Dukuh Atas TOD Area was first determined by MRT Corridor Development Jakarta Phase 1 in 2012, then the Public Works, Spatial, and Land Planning departments adjusted it to include Waduk Melati on the west side in 2019. The TOD Area stands in one of the Central Business Districts (CBD) alongside Jl. Jenderal Sudirman is one of the most important arteries in Jakarta. This area was on a regional service scale. Many office towers and other commercial buildings are neatly scattered throughout the area. This made the TOD area in Dukuh Atas one of the most developed areas in Jakarta.
There are also residential areas categorized as “very dense settlement”, despite being located in the heart of Jakarta. Figure 2 shows how dense the settlement is, with a road width of only 1.5 m to accommodate accessibility through the settlement. It should be noted that the characteristics of dense settlements in Jakarta, Indonesia, are marked by the narrow roads and the condition of houses that do not have a distance between the building and the road or any yard in front of the house. In addition, the density in Jakarta is dominated by settlements in the low-rise category because the majority of vertical or high-rise housing in Jakarta is flats, which are relatively more organized than the organic settlements built by the community decades ago. This condition is why the development of TOD areas in Dukuh Atas is important, especially vertical housing development, to address the backlog and land availability issues.

2.2. Data Source

This study used secondary data obtained from various sources. Secondary data were collected from primary sources and made available to researchers for use in their research. Most of the data are spatial and can be processed with the GIS software. The spatial data were acquired from the European Space Agency (ESA) at https://sentinel.esa.int/web/sentinel/home (accessed on 22 March 2022) and used to analyze the spatial condition of the TOD area in Dukuh Atas. Nonetheless, statistical data are also used to calculate the assumption of population data in the area. The statistical data are obtained from the Bureau of Statistics in Jakarta Province.
The data obtained are the actual data for the period in which this study was conducted, i.e., 2021. The data used in this study are existing land use data as of 2021 (https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/ (accessed on 22 March 2022), Urban Design Guidelines for the Dukuh Atas area that were issued in 2021 (https://mrtjakarta.co.id (accessed on 1 March 2022), which refer to the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan that was issued in Regional Regulation of Jakarta Province Number 31 of 2022 (https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/ (accessed on 1 March 2022), and population data for 2021 for the Dukuh Atas TOD area obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics of Jakarta Province (https://jakarta.bps.go.id/ (accessed on 1 March 2022). Data processing (BPS) has gone through further calculations, bearing in mind that the data at BPS is on an administrative scale while the study area is on a regional scale.
Data on the daily number of passengers at transit stations in the Dukuh Atas TOD area are also used as secondary data. The transit stations determined in this study are Dukuh Atas MRT station, Sudirman KRL station, Transjakarta Tosari 1 bus stop, and Tosari ICBC. In total, 52 percent of passengers disembark in the Dukuh Atas TOD area for work purposes [34]. This is then used as the basis for the assumption of the number of people and the number of households predicted to choose to live in the TOD area and then to include potential residents in the vertical housing planning in the Dukuh Atas TOD area.
In normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) analysis, Sentinel-2A satellite imagery data were used with the Shortwave Infrared (SWIR) band (Band 11) and Near-Infrared band (Band 8) to obtain the density index of buildings in the Dukuh Atas TOD area. The two bands in Sentinel-2A satellite imagery with image tile T48MYU (date acquired: 9 April 2022) were processed mathematically using QGIS 3.28.1.

2.3. Research Approach

  • This research has been conducted since October 2020 and involves four stages of analysis (Figure 3): The first stage is to analyze the conformity between the existing land use in the Dukuh Atas area and the Urban Design Guidelines for the Dukuh Atas TOD area, which refers to the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Planning in 2022 (Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan). The purpose of this conformity analysis is to find suitable and unsuitable loci to produce locus output that can be developed to conform to the applicable urban design guidelines [35]. The suitable area is given a high score, indicating that it has more potential than the unsuitable area because the suitable area has certainty in the direction of its development. The second stage is to calculate the environmental carrying capacity for residential. The focus of this second stage is to analyze how the environment’s carrying capacity can support the increasing demand for housing in the Dukuh Atas TOD area. The results of environmental carrying capacity can be one of the inputs in land conversion from land that is unsuitable to be in accordance with the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan. Carrying capacity analysis for residential can also determine the intensity of the settlement zone, which includes several parameters such as Building Covered Ration (BCR), zonation, and maximum building height.
  • Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI) to analyze the building density index in the Dukuh Atas TOD area. The results of the NDBI analysis will show areas with high and low densities, which will be analyzed by superimposing them on the land suitability analysis conducted previously. The NDBI value is exposed in the range from −1 to 1, where the closer to 1, the denser a certain area is in the Dukuh Atas TOD area. If the building density index is higher, the area tends to have higher development potential, considering the relationship between the density of buildings and the number of people living there.
  • The fourth stage is to extract dense areas and do a weighted overlay analysis with FAR data. This analysis aims to find potential areas that have not been optimized by vertical residential development. This is useful for obtaining a vertical allocation of land for development that can be used to provide sustainable housing in the Dukuh Atas TOD area. The higher an area’s FAR value, the higher its potential for development, particularly vertical development.

2.4. Data Analysis Approach

The data analysis approach used in this study is GIS analysis with the overlay method and an analysis of land carrying capacity for settlements. The overlay analysis was performed to compare and determine compatibility between the existing land use in the area and Jakarta’s detailed spatial plan. In contrast, the specific analysis method was carried out using the overlay analysis method with the GGIS approach in ArcMap software.
The carrying capacity of the land for settlements is the next analysis. The purpose of calculating settlement carrying capacity is to identify the ability of an area to accommodate residents, which is explained by the following formula [36]:
D D P m = L P m J P × α
where DDPm is the environmental carrying capacity, LPm is the residential land area, JP is the population, and α is the coefficient of space requirement area. Table 1 is a standard per capita space requirement that can be used as a guideline for calculating the carrying capacity index value of settlements contained in the Regulation of the Minister of Public Works No. 11 of 2008 (https://legalitas.org/peraturan-menteri-kementerian-negara-perumahan-rakyat-no-11-permen-m-2008-tahun-2008-tentang-pedoman-keserasian-kawasan-perumahan-dan-permukiman (accessed on 12 March 2022).
The calculation result from the above equation is a multiple of the population of the environment in the Dukuh Atas TOD area. The result of the population multiplication can be assumed as a prediction of the population in the future, which can then be processed into the number of households under the assumption that 1 household contains 4–5 people. Assuming that 1 household occupies 1 residential unit, it can be seen that there will be housing needs in the Dukuh Atas TOD area in the future. This figure will then become one of the inputs in finding potential locations for land use change, especially from loci that are not in accordance with the Urban Design Guidelines and the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan.
The following analysis is the NDBI analysis, which is used as one variable with the aim of identifying the density of the built-up area in the Dukuh Atas TOD area. This NDBI approach is an algorithm modification of the Natural Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) approach, which is used to identify the vegetation density index [37]. The value generated by the NDBI analysis varies from −1 to 1, where the closer to 1 it is, the higher the value of building density. The NDBI formula is as follows:
N D B I = S W I R − N I R S W I R + N I R
where SWIR is Short-wave Infrared band, and NIR is the Near-Infrared band.
This SWIR and NIR channel (band) is found in satellite imagery that can be downloaded from the state-owned space agency. This study used Sentinel 2A with a spatial resolution of 15 m. A spatial resolution of 15 m means that each existing pixel represents an area of 15 × 15 m in the field [38]. It is crucial to identify the density of buildings in the Dukuh Atas TOD area because there are different approaches to developing vertical housing in an empty area and in an area with a high residential density but with a typology that tends to be sporadic. Furthermore, the data needed are intensity data, especially in the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan settlement zone, as stipulated in the Regional Regulation of Jakarta Province No. 31 of 2022 (https://peraturan.bpk.go.id/Home/Details/228166/pergub-prov-dki-jakarta-no-31-tahun-2022 (accessed on 12 March 2022). These intensity data determine which areas are allowed or permitted for the development of vertical housing or mixed-use developments.
The four results of the analysis are then combined with a weighted overlay analysis, which is one of several methods. The weighted-overlay method uses the pixel values in the raster data, so the results of the analysis must first be converted into raster data [39]. This weighted-overlay method relies on weighting each layer of the variables analyzed. Each attribute in each variable is also given a value in the form of a score that is arranged ordinally, or in other words, based on ranking [40].
The scores listed in Table 2 are defined between 1 and 5, where the higher the value, the higher the potential for the area. The highest weight is the FAR and the intensity of the settlement zone, which refers to the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan and the Urban Design Guidelines (UDGL) of the Dukuh Atas TOD area as the highest limit, which is the regulation for development in the Dukuh Atas TOD area. The second-highest weight is NDBI, and the lowest is conformity. Weighting is performed after each variable goes through the scoring stage. Weighting is performed to express the level of influence of a variable on other variables [41]. The weighting method used in this study is based on previous studies that included four variables, as shown in Table 2. These variables include conformity, FAR, NDBI, and residential zone intensity.
Conformity is obtained by overlaying existing land use with the Detailed Spatial Plan of Jakarta. The weighting process for this variable is the smallest among the other variables. This is because the conformity variable does not directly impact conformity dynamics resulting from the overlay analysis [42]. In addition, the potential for the development of vertical housing can be based on both suitable and inappropriate areas, as well as dense and less densely populated areas [28]. NDBI is an indicator to measure an area’s building density level [37]. In this case, NDBI is another important component in determining the allocation of residential density besides FAR and Residential Zone Intensity [43]. In addition, NDBI provides an overview of the density in the Jakarta TOD area. The score on the NDBI value is divided into five classes, where the NDBI value < 1 is given a score of 1 (N/A) because it is not a built-up area, while the rest, NDBI > 1, is divided into four density classes with equal intervals.
The FAR weighting was chosen based on the limited space in the Dukuh Atas TOD area, which requires a development approach to measure intensity through volume, the bulk of buildings, and mass. The practice of building intensity in Dukuh Atas TOD is still not appropriate because many land housing projects have not applied an equal distribution of FAR values [30]. At the same time, the design of the TOD area supports land use with a maximum FAR [44,45]. Therefore, in the analysis unit FAR, the score is divided into two values: a score of 1 is for a low FAR number, while a score of 5 is for a mid-high FAR number.
Weighting for residential areas is given because this study aims to find the land allocation for settlements. Therefore, the highest weight is given to areas where land use has the potential to be allocated as residential areas, such as mixed-use zones, vertical housing zones, and medium-high FAR residential zones [45].

3. Results

3.1. Analysis of Conformity between Urban Design Guidelines for the Dukuh Atas TOD Area and Existing Land Use

The TOD area of Dukuh Atas has an area of 146 hectares, consisting of various types of land uses. The dominant land uses include (1) housing and settlements/residential areas, (2) business/trade and commercial services, (3) socio-cultural areas, (4) spiritual areas, and (5) other uses. Based on the five types of land use, it can be further broken down into ten existing land uses, namely: (1.1) mixed function; (1.2) settlement; (2.1) offices, trade, and services; (2.2) public services; (2.3) government; (3.1) education services; (4.1) religion; (5.1) green open space; (5.2) blue open space; and (5.3) vacant land.
Figure 4 shows the percentage of existing land use in the Dukuh Atas TOD area. Based on these data, it can be seen that the Dukuh Atas TOD area is dominated by offices, trade, and services (44.19%) and followed by residential areas (29.33%). This finding shows that the Dukuh Atas TOD area meets the characteristics of an urban area in the downtown zone of the Jakarta metropolitan area.
Based on Figure 5, it can be identified that the Jakarta Spatial Plan contained in the Dukuh Atas TOD Area consists of ten zones, which include the mixed zone, green line zone, public and social service zone, government zone national office, trade and service zone, medium-high BCR housing zone, vertical housing zone, foreign country representative zone, city/environmental park zone, and blue open zone. Each of the ten zones has its sub-zone according to its designation, which is also equipped with a “Zoning Regulation Table” as a guide for planning the area.
Figure 6 shows the percentage of the zoning area in the 2022 Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan. Based on the chart, it can be seen that the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan in the Dukuh Atas TOD area is dominated by the office, trade, and service zones (40.28%) and followed by the residential zone (22.16%), which is divided in more detail into the medium-high BCR housing zone (11.74%) and the vertical housing zone (10.42%). The Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan in the Dukuh Atas TOD area also shows that the Mixed Zone and Blue Open Zone get a fairly large share, considering that the direction of the Dukuh Atas TOD Urban Design Guidelines focuses more on mixed-use development to support sustainable TOD.
Figure 7 compares the current land use and the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan in the Dukuh Atas TOD area. There are significant differences in several types of land use, such as green open space, blue open space, settlements, and mixed. This indicates discrepancies at several loci in the Dukuh Atas TOD area, which we can see in Figure 7. The big difference is in the blue open space. This is because there is no river land use in the existing data, but there is a blue open zone in the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan, which includes a river and pond at the “Patung Selamat Datang” Fountain.
Overlay analysis using the GIS method was carried out to see which loci or areas within the Dukuh Atas TOD area were suitable and not in accordance with the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan in the Dukuh Atas TOD area. However, there are areas of water bodies that are determined to be restricted in the overlay process, even though there is compatibility between the current land use and the Detailed Spatial Plan. This is due to restrictions on the development of residential areas, which may not be developed over water bodies. On the conformity map of the overlay results between the existing land use and the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan, it can be seen which location are suitable, along with their areas (Figure 8). The results show that the appropriate area (green) is 956.756.83 m2, and the unsuitable area (red) is 186.680.73 m2. This shows that 83.67% of the Dukuh Atas TOD area is in accordance with the detailed spatial plan. Unsuitable conditions tend to be found in the western part of the Dukuh Atas TOD area, adjacent to the Kebun Melati Reservoir and residential areas bordering the Ciliwung River.
This land conformity map will be one of the inputs for considering the search for potential locations to increase the number of dwellings in order to accommodate the increasing density according to the design in the Dukuh Atas TOD Urban Design Guidelines, which is to increase the density of the area to create an area with the concept of one-stop living. The one-stop living concept was also supported by walkability and mixed use. In terms of mixed use, the density helps reduce transportation expenses due to the integration of public transport and housing [46]. The walkability of TOD is a central concept because every mobility action starts and ends with walking. Nonetheless, it came with consequences as a multi-dimensional concept that depends on the components of the built environment, and its performance is the key to guaranteeing its success and promoting its use, which includes urban design, transportation systems, the physical infrastructure of roads, sidewalks, bike paths, etc., urban use patterns, the distribution of space [47], and improving walkability in a TOD concept [48]. In addition, there has to be an intermodal integration of public transportation that facilitates the accessibility and movement of people in the TOD area. The design of the Dukuh Atas TOD Area reduces the distance between destinations that accommodate the needs and activities of the people in the area. For example, if one needs to fulfill daily needs, one only needs to walk for about 5–10 min. Moreover, the 5–10 min walk was the criteria for connectivity to transit points, namely a maximum of 600 m from commercial, service, or office areas and 600 m from residential areas [49].

3.2. Environmental Carrying Capacity Analysis for Settlements

The number of existing residents, the standard area of space requirements, or capita, and the area of land suitable for settlements are all factors to consider when calculating the environmental carrying capacity for settlements. The population variable is an estimate of the population included in the delineation of the Dukuh Atas TOD area. It is necessary to calculate the population with assumptions based on scientific calculations, where the assumed population is obtained from the following equation:
K p d t = J P L W
where Kpdt is population density, JP is the number of population (people), and LW is the area (ha).
The first stage is to find the average population density in the Dukuh Atas TOD area by finding the average population density of the three sub-districts where the Dukuh Atas TOD area is located, namely Menteng District, Setiabudi District, and Tanah Abang District, by considering the ratio of the area located in each district. The next step is to calculate the population range by multiplying the average population density by the area of the Dukuh Atas TOD area to get the population range in the Dukuh Atas TOD area.
Based on Table 3, the range of the population in the Dukuh Atas TOD area can be determined with the following calculations (Table 4):
It is known from the calculation results that the range of the population in the TOD area of Dukuh Atas is 20,554 people. After knowing the population, we can continue calculating the environmental carrying capacity for settlements in the Dukuh Atas TOD area.
Based on Equation (1), it can be concluded that the land carrying capacity for a residential area is greater than 1, which means that the land in the Dukuh Atas TOD area can accommodate residents. According to the calculation, the resulting DDPm, or environmental carrying capacity, for settlements is 2.05, indicating that the residential environment has enough area to accommodate residents who are 2.05 times the current population. After obtaining the value of the environmental carrying capacity for settlements, the optimal population can be calculated as follows:
J P o = D D P m × J P
where JPo is the number of residents that can be supported by the environment’s carrying capacity in the Dukuh Atas TOD area, DDPm is the environmental carrying capacity, and JP is the number of people (population).
Based on the results of the calculation analysis, it is found that the number of residents that can be supported by the carrying capacity of the environment in the Dukuh Atas TOD area is 42.128 people. However, it should be noted that this formula applies only to the horizontal growth of settlements and ignores vertical growth, so this research needs to be investigated further.
Suppose it is assumed that one household consists of four people, and one household occupies one residential unit. In that case, it can be seen that the environmental carrying capacity for settlements in the Dukuh Atas TOD Area can support up to 10,534 residential units on the site (horizontally). If we talk about horizontal development, referring to the Jakarta Spatial Plan, we will obtain a much larger number than the calculation results.

3.3. Normalized Difference Built-Up Index

NDBI was used in the study as one of the primary considerations in determining decisions related to land use mismatches with spatial planning in the Dukuh Atas TOD area. Figure 9 shows the NDBI value in the Dukuh Atas TOD area. Several density points dominate in the sub-districts of Kebonmelati and Menteng. There is an uneven distribution of building densities, where the current density of existing buildings is centered on several locations. Optimum building density allocation requires integration with spatial planning policies, especially those related to the land-use suitability of the Dukuh Atas TOD Area.

3.4. Optimizing the Residential Development of the Dukuh Atas Transit-Oriented Development Area

Optimizing residential development entails considering an even distribution of environmental carrying capacity conditions with building density in the deviation area, which should be allocated to areas with greater potential or suitability for urban development. Based on the results, we have found potential areas for housing area allocation based on the spatial plan, the conformity between the spatial plan and the existing development, and built-up area density. There are five recommendation classes in the Dukuh Atas TOD area, where the number one (1) represents an area that is restricted or cannot be developed, and the number five (5) represents an area with great potential to be developed for sustainable housing allocation (Figure 10). The higher areas of potential for housing allocations are distributed in the middle area of the TOD Dukuh Atas. For example, for higher suitability scores of 5, there are 2 ha of potential areas and 11.4 ha for scores of 4. In this case, 22% of the potential areas are in the TOD Dukuh Atas.

4. Discussion

The TOD policy contained in the Minister of Agrarian and Spatial Planning and National Land Agency Regulation No. 16 of 2017 concerning Guidelines for the Development of Transit-Oriented Areas accommodates residential development, which continues to be driven by vertical development. Given that the availability of land is limited and the urbanization process continues to increase in Jakarta, the Dukuh Atas TOD area, as one of the strategic areas in the heart of Jakarta, requires vertical development, which is also urgent. The existence of the Minister of Agrarian and Spatial Planning and National Land Agency regulation, which was also revealed to be Jakarta Governor Regulation No. 107 of 2020 concerning the development of transit-oriented areas in Dukuh Atas, further accommodates the interests in the development of the TOD area in Dukuh Atas. With this policy, planning documents align with the direction of developing transit-oriented areas. This is confirmed by the update of the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan in 2022, which is contained in Governor Regulation No. 31 of 2022 concerning the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan of the Jakarta Province, which discusses the direction of regional functions, including but not limited to the Dukuh Atas area, and which serves as a guide for the preparation of Urban Design Guidelines for the development of TOD in Dukuh Atas.
Referring to the results of the analysis that has been carried out on both the conformity and environmental carrying capacity of settlements, it can be seen that the Dukuh Atas TOD area can support the growth of new housing both horizontally and vertically because there is still land availability. In addition, from the conformity analysis, we can find out which areas are not suitable so that in the future, the development of residential areas can be directed to adjust areas that are not yet suitable in the Dukuh Atas TOD Area. This is necessary for future environmental sustainability in order to control and sustain land use dynamics. Several studies show that inappropriate land use can cause various problems, such as environmental, social, and economic ones.
The results of the land’s carrying capacity analysis also show that the Dukuh Atas TOD area can still support residential growth, and the population is 2.05 times the current population, assuming that residential growth takes place only horizontally. However, in the Dukuh Atas area, which is actually located in the Jakarta Metropolitan City, it will be possible if the development occurs vertically, even in mixed use. This statement was reinforced by [50] through their research, which calculates the Land Use Diversity Index in the Dukuh Atas TOD, which has increased to 0.92 in 2020, whereas in 2013, it was only 0.88. One of the reasons for the increase in the mixed-use function is the availability of public services, mainly because it is integrated with transit modes. This allows the housing to be built on top of other spatial functions such as trade and services, public services, and offices. For example, there are flats above the market (Pasar Rumput Vertical Housing) and others.
There are medium-high BCR settlement zones and vertical settlement zones in the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan in the Dukuh Atas TOD area, with an area of 13.39 ha for the medium-high BCR housing zone and 11.89 ha for the vertical housing zone (Figure 11). This is interesting because, in further research, the analysis of the environmental carrying capacity for settlements can be processed by taking into account the FAR values in the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan in order to obtain the maximum number of floors that can be built in a zone. With the results of these calculations, it can produce a more detailed prediction of residential needs in accordance with the conditions of the TOD area in Dukuh Atas.
The purpose of this study is to show how many residents and the estimated number of dwellings can be supported by the environmental carrying capacity in the Dukuh Atas TOD area by taking into account an analysis of conformity as one of the inputs for potential land development in the future.

5. Conclusions

This study aims to find the optimum space utilization for the residential allocation in the Dukuh Atas TOD area through spatial analysis. This study uses several variables, such as conformity, FAR, NDBI, and residential zone intensity. Based on the analysis of the conformity of existing land use with the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan and an analysis of the environmental supporting capacity of the settlements in the Dukuh Atas TOD Area, it can be concluded that the Dukuh Atas TOD Area is still able to support an increase in the population up to 2.05 times the current population if it is assumed that housing growth will only occur gradually horizontally. In this case, this study finds that 22% of the total area of Dukuh Atas TOD is suitable and has the potential to be optimized, especially with regard to the designation of vertical housing. Then, the area development plan contained in the Dukuh Atas TOD Area Urban Design Guidelines can be directed to areas that are not suitable while still paying attention to other areas that have the potential for mixed-use development and vertical development.
The government can take several policy directions in housing development that are not only horizontal but focus more on the development of vertical housing as a way to maximize land use efficiency by considering several variables such as building density, conformity of existing land use with urban planning documents, and residential zone intensity. The existence of comprehensive vertical planning allows the concept of a sustainable TOD area to be applied optimally and supports activities in the TOD area.
Further research is needed on the direction of residential development to support the sustainable TOD concept, especially in the Dukuh Atas TOD area. The sustainable TOD concept is meant to reduce the use of private vehicles by increasing the density between zones, including by designing an integrated environment such as mixed-use planning and integrating public transport intermodally.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, R.M.I., H.S.H. and S.A.A.; Methodology, R.M.I.; Software, R.M.I.; Validation, R.M.I., H.S.H. and S.A.A.; Formal Analysis, R.M.I.; Investigation, R.M.I.; Resources, R.M.I.; Data Curation, R.M.I.; Writing—Original Draft Preparation, R.M.I.; Writing—Review and Editing, H.S.H. and S.A.A.; Visualization, R.M.I.; Supervision, H.S.H. and S.A.A.; Project Administration, R.M.I.; Funding Acquisition, R.M.I. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Data Availability Statement

The data will be available upon a reasonable request.

Acknowledgments

The authors sincerely thank the Department of Environmental Science, Universitas Indonesia.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest with any financial, personal, or other relationships with other people or organizations related to the material discussed in the article.

Abbreviations

TODTransit-Oriented Development
CBDCentral Business District
NDBINormalized Difference Built-up Index
NDVINatural Difference Vegetation Index
GISGeographic Information System
FARFloor Area Ratio
BCRBuilding Covered Ration
MRTMass Rapid Transit
LRTLight Rail Transit
HSRHigh-Speed Rail
SWIRShort-Wave Infrared Band
NIRNear-Infrared Band
ICBCTosari—Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited
DKI JakartaDaerah Khusus Ibukota/Capital City of Indonesia—Jakarta

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Figure 1. Dukuh Atas TOD Area.
Figure 1. Dukuh Atas TOD Area.
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Figure 2. Dense settlements in Dukuh Atas.
Figure 2. Dense settlements in Dukuh Atas.
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Figure 3. Research method flowchart.
Figure 3. Research method flowchart.
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Figure 4. Comparison of Dukuh Atas Existing Land Use and Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan. (a) Dukuh Atas Existing Land Use and (b) Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan.
Figure 4. Comparison of Dukuh Atas Existing Land Use and Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan. (a) Dukuh Atas Existing Land Use and (b) Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan.
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Figure 5. Existing Land Use in Dukuh Atas.
Figure 5. Existing Land Use in Dukuh Atas.
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Figure 6. Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan Percentage.
Figure 6. Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan Percentage.
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Figure 7. Land Use and Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan Comparison Chart.
Figure 7. Land Use and Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan Comparison Chart.
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Figure 8. Conformity between existing land use and the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan.
Figure 8. Conformity between existing land use and the Jakarta Detailed Spatial Plan.
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Figure 9. Normalized Difference Built-up Index of Dukuh Atas TOD Area.
Figure 9. Normalized Difference Built-up Index of Dukuh Atas TOD Area.
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Figure 10. Potential Areas for Housing Development in the TOD Dukuh Atas Area.
Figure 10. Potential Areas for Housing Development in the TOD Dukuh Atas Area.
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Figure 11. Housing Zones of Jakarta: Detailed Spatial Plan.
Figure 11. Housing Zones of Jakarta: Detailed Spatial Plan.
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Table
Table 1. Coefficient of Space Requirement Area.
Table 1. Coefficient of Space Requirement Area.
No.Geografic LocationSpace Requirements (ha/capita)
1Rural Zona0.0133
2Suburban Zone0.0080
3Urban Zone0.0026
4City Center Zone0.0016
5Metropolitan City Center Zone0.0006
Table
Table 2. Weighted-Overlay Variables.
Table 2. Weighted-Overlay Variables.
Analysis UnitValueScoreWeight
ConformityUnsuitable115
Suitable5
FARLow130
Mid-High5
NDBIN/A125
Not Dense2
Low Density3
Medium Density4
High Density5
Residential Zone IntensityPotential530
Not-Potential1
Table
Table 3. Population Density in Dukuh Atas TOD Area.
Table 3. Population Density in Dukuh Atas TOD Area.
NoDistrictArea (ha)Population (Person)Population Density (Person/ha)
1Menteng65368,415105
2Setiabudi885112,055127
3Tanah Abang930147,788159
Table
Table 4. Population Calculation.
Table 4. Population Calculation.
NoDistrictTOD Area (ha)Population Density (Person/ha)Population (Person)
1Menteng44.611054674
2Setiabudi4.54127575
3Tanah Abang96.3115915,304
Total20,554
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Irsal, R.M.; Hasibuan, H.S.; Azwar, S.A. Spatial Modeling for Residential Optimization in Dukuh Atas Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) Area, Jakarta, Indonesia. Sustainability 2023, 15, 530. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010530

AMA Style

Irsal RM, Hasibuan HS, Azwar SA. Spatial Modeling for Residential Optimization in Dukuh Atas Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) Area, Jakarta, Indonesia. Sustainability. 2023; 15(1):530. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010530

Chicago/Turabian Style

Irsal, Ridho Masruri, Hayati Sari Hasibuan, and Sylvira Ananda Azwar. 2023. "Spatial Modeling for Residential Optimization in Dukuh Atas Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) Area, Jakarta, Indonesia" Sustainability 15, no. 1: 530. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010530

APA Style

Irsal, R. M., Hasibuan, H. S., & Azwar, S. A. (2023). Spatial Modeling for Residential Optimization in Dukuh Atas Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) Area, Jakarta, Indonesia. Sustainability, 15(1), 530. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010530

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