Population, Wars, and the Grand Canal in Chinese History
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Scope of Research and Data
2.1. Study Period and Study Area
2.2. Population Data
2.3. War Data
2.4. Data Aggregation
3. Methods
3.1. Population
3.2. War Distribution and War Belt Identification
3.3. Statistical Analysis
4. Results
4.1. Population Distribution
4.2. War Distribution
4.3. War Belt
4.4. Statistical Relationship among Population Change, War Density, and Distance from the Waterway
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
N | Mean | Unit | Skewness | Kurtosis | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statistics | Std. Error | Statistics | Std. Error | ||||
Population density | 472 | 117.84 | person/km2 | 0.469 | 0.412 | 0.432 | 0.524 |
War density | 3938 | 32.84 | km (distance between war points) | 0.465 | 0.580 | 0.210 | 0.260 |
Distance from waterway | 1559 | 36,861 | m | 0.252 | 0.303 | 0.383 | 0.406 |
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Dynasty | First-Level Administrative Regions |
---|---|
Tang | Hebei Dao, Duji Dao, Henan Dao, Huainan Dao, Jiangnandong Dao |
Yuan | Zhongshu Sheng, Henanjiangbei Xingsheng, Jiangzhe Xingsheng |
Ming | Jingshi, Henan, Shandong, Nanjing, Zhejiang |
Qing | Zhili, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Zhejiang |
Nationwide | Grand Canal Area | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
War Density | Pop Change | War Density | Pop Change | ||
AD752–820 | Distance from waterway | −0.152 ** | −0.070 | −0.221 ** | −0.137 * |
War density | 0.331 *** | 0.509 *** | |||
AD1270–1393 | Distance from waterway | −0.144 ** | 0.045 | −0.238 *** | −0.302 *** |
War density | 0.314 *** | 0.429 *** | |||
AD1820–1910 | Distance from waterway | −0.309 *** | −0.150 *** | −0.302 *** | −0.137 |
War density | 0.460 *** | 0.589 *** |
Equation | R2 | F | Sig. | Sum of Squares | AIC | BIC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AD752–820 | ||||||
Linear | 0.259 | 84.028 | 0.000 | 13,056,503.372 | 2638.798 | 2647.776 |
Logarithmic | 0.290 | 98.145 | 0.000 | 12,511,394.805 | 2628.477 | 2637.455 |
Inverse | 0.048 | 12.155 | 0.001 | 16,778,067.013 | 2699.488 | 2708.466 |
Quadratic | 0.351 | 64.726 | 0.000 | 11,434,431.739 | 2606.695 | 2615.673 |
Cubic | 0.374 | 47.308 | 0.000 | 11,042,807.338 | 2598.261 | 2607.239 |
Compound | 0.284 | 95.247 | 0.000 | 73.530 | −286.281 | −277.303 |
Power | 0.340 | 123.797 | 0.000 | 67.759 | −306.061 | −297.083 |
S-curve | 0.074 | 19.290 | 0.000 | 95.070 | −224.106 | −215.129 |
Growth | 0.284 | 95.247 | 0.000 | 73.530 | −286.281 | −277.303 |
Exponential | 0.284 | 95.247 | 0.000 | 73.530 | −286.281 | −277.303 |
AD1270–1393 | ||||||
Linear | 0.184 | 48.562 | 0.000 | 6,919,940.345 | 2485.157 | 2494.135 |
Logarithmic | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Inverse | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Quadratic | 0.205 | 27.622 | 0.000 | 6,742,924.110 | 2478.886 | 2487.864 |
Cubic | 0.208 | 18.620 | 0.000 | 6,720,742.331 | 2478.089 | 2487.067 |
Compound | 0.166 | 42.847 | 0.000 | 61.868 | −328.072 | −319.094 |
Power | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
S-curve | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Growth | 0.166 | 42.847 | 0.000 | 61.868 | −328.072 | −319.094 |
Exponential | 0.166 | 42.847 | 0.000 | 61.868 | −328.072 | −319.094 |
AD1820–1910 | ||||||
Linear | 0.347 | 100.971 | 0.000 | 5,418,989.708 | 2425.989 | 2434.967 |
Logarithmic | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Inverse | 0.000 | 0.046 | 0.831 | 8,296,789.092 | 2529.071 | 2538.049 |
Quadratic | 0.374 | 56.536 | 0.000 | 5,192,371.238 | 2415.651 | 2424.629 |
Cubic | 0.468 | 55.204 | 0.000 | 4,412,079.558 | 2376.242 | 2385.220 |
Compound | 0.279 | 73.456 | 0.000 | 55.758 | −353.236 | −344.258 |
Power | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
S-curve | 0.002 | 0.315 | 0.575 | 77.186 | −274.538 | −265.560 |
Growth | 0.279 | 73.456 | 0.000 | 55.758 | −353.236 | −344.258 |
Exponential | 0.279 | 73.456 | 0.000 | 55.758 | −353.236 | −344.258 |
Equation | R2 | F | Sig. | Sum of Squares | AIC | BIC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AD752–820 | ||||||
Linear | 0.049 | 12.320 | 0.001 | 16,767,083.542 | 2699.330 | 2708.308 |
Logarithmic | 0.001 | 0.165 | 0.685 | 17,615,708.110 | 2711.278 | 2720.256 |
Inverse | 0.010 | 2.370 | 0.125 | 17,455,381.675 | 2709.065 | 2718.043 |
Quadratic | 0.105 | 13.951 | 0.000 | 15,784,974.542 | 2684.723 | 2693.701 |
Cubic | 0.131 | 11.931 | 0.000 | 15,323,321.671 | 2677.540 | 2686.517 |
Compound | 0.071 | 18.373 | 0.000 | 95.407 | −223.250 | −214.272 |
Power | 0.001 | 0.226 | 0.635 | 102.614 | −205.627 | −196.649 |
S-curve | 0.021 | 5.067 | 0.025 | 100.587 | −210.455 | −201.477 |
Growth | 0.071 | 18.373 | 0.000 | 95.407 | −223.250 | −214.272 |
Exponential | 0.071 | 18.373 | 0.000 | 95.407 | −223.250 | −214.272 |
AD1270–1393 | ||||||
Linear | 0.056 | 12.855 | 0.000 | 8,003,676.684 | 2520.367 | 2529.345 |
Logarithmic | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Inverse | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Quadratic | 0.057 | 6.487 | 0.002 | 7,997,253.397 | 2520.172 | 2529.150 |
Cubic | 0.072 | 5.473 | 0.001 | 7,875,053.223 | 2516.446 | 2525.424 |
Compound | 0.057 | 12.973 | 0.000 | 69.953 | −298.350 | −289.372 |
Power | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
S-curve | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Growth | 0.057 | 12.973 | 0.000 | 69.953 | −298.350 | −289.372 |
Exponential | 0.057 | 12.973 | 0.000 | 69.953 | −298.350 | −289.372 |
AD1820–1910 | ||||||
Linear | 0.091 | 19.059 | 0.000 | 7,542,232.919 | 2505.996 | 2514.974 |
Logarithmic | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Inverse | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Quadratic | 0.092 | 9.567 | 0.000 | 7,535,854.994 | 2505.791 | 2514.769 |
Cubic | 0.093 | 6.403 | 0.000 | 7,529,402.618 | 2505.584 | 2514.562 |
Compound | 0.117 | 25.080 | 0.000 | 68.299 | −304.140 | −295.162 |
Power | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
S-curve | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
Growth | 0.117 | 25.080 | 0.000 | 68.299 | −304.140 | −295.162 |
Exponential | 0.117 | 25.080 | 0.000 | 68.299 | −304.140 | −295.162 |
95% Confidence Interval | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Parameter | Estimate | Std. Error | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
AD752–820 | ||||
a1 | −7.128 × 107 | 5.558 × 1017 | −1.095 × 1018 | 1.095 × 1018 |
a2 | 3.601 | 2.634 | −1.589 | 8.791 |
a3 | −0.070 | 0.052 | −0.173 | 0.032 |
a4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
b1 | 7.128 × 107 | 5.558× 1017 | −1.095 × 1018 | 1.095 × 1018 |
b2 | 15.201 | 2.638 | 10.003 | 20.399 |
b3 | −0.154 | 0.043 | −0.239 | −0.070 |
b4 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
R2 = 0.415 | ||||
AD1270–1393 | ||||
a1 | −1.575 × 108 | 5.269 × 1017 | −1.039 × 1018 | 1.039 × 1018 |
a2 | −1.380 | 1.739 | −4.807 | 2.048 |
a3 | 0.023 | 0.026 | −0.028 | 0.075 |
a4 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
b1 | 1.575 × 108 | 5.269 × 1017 | −1.039 × 1018 | 1.039 × 1018 |
b2 | 1.917 | 0.391 | 1.147 | 2.687 |
b3 | 0.003 | 0.002 | −0.002 | 0.008 |
b4 | −6.494 × 10−6 | 0.000 | −3.238 × 10−5 | 1.939 × 10−5 |
R2 = 0.222 | ||||
AD1820–1910 | ||||
a1 | 1.879 × 1010 | 3.423 × 1017 | −6.754 × 1017 | 6.754 |
a2 | −1.383 | 0.976 | −3.308 | 0.542 |
a3 | 0.006 | 0.011 | −0.015 | 0.027 |
a4 | −1.415 × 10−5 | 0.000 | −6.664 × 10−5 | 3.834 × 10−5 |
b1 | −1.879 × 1010 | 3.423 × 1017 | −6.754 × 1017 | 6.754 × 1017 |
b2 | 1.123 | 0.089 | 0.948 | 1.298 |
b3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
b4 | −3.576 × 10−6 | 0.000 | −4.357 × 10−6 | −2.795 × 10−6 |
R2 = 0.505 |
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Lee, H.F.; Jia, X.; Ji, B. Population, Wars, and the Grand Canal in Chinese History. Sustainability 2022, 14, 7006. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14127006
Lee HF, Jia X, Ji B. Population, Wars, and the Grand Canal in Chinese History. Sustainability. 2022; 14(12):7006. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14127006
Chicago/Turabian StyleLee, Harry F., Xin Jia, and Baoxiang Ji. 2022. "Population, Wars, and the Grand Canal in Chinese History" Sustainability 14, no. 12: 7006. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14127006
APA StyleLee, H. F., Jia, X., & Ji, B. (2022). Population, Wars, and the Grand Canal in Chinese History. Sustainability, 14(12), 7006. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14127006