The Importance of Club Revenues for Player Salaries and Transfer Expenses—How Does the Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) Impact the English Premier League?
Round 1
Reviewer 1 Report
Conclusions into the abstract are independent to the context they try to study.
The method to forecast is not mentioned in the abstract. Guess or forecast?
I recommend to follow the journal instructions to make the abstract:
"We strongly encourage authors to use the following style of structured abstracts, but without headings: (1) Background: Place the question addressed in a broad context and highlight the purpose of the study; (2) Methods: Describe briefly the main methods or treatments applied; (3) Results: Summarize the article's main findings; and (4) Conclusions: Indicate the main conclusions or interpretations. The abstract should be an objective representation of the article, it must not contain results which are not presented and substantiated in the main text and should not exaggerate the main conclusions."
Clubs must not exceed a percentage limit of their budget to pay players' salaries.
Budgets are forward-looking projections. If they are not able to maintain estimated revenues, and have already committed costs, how does this rule affect them?
Why three possible coronavirus scenarios?
Incomes and outcomes should be better categorized. A Table will be helpful.
Are you sure that player salaries account for approximately 80% of all wage expenses paid by the clubs?
Economic figures are given, but only partially.
The new TV contract is not underlined. This is the main trigger of the increase in salaries and transfers in the EPL.
The method to calculate the market value of a player should justified. For instance, the popular web "https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/" owns its method to do it. However, since the scientific point of view, authors must discuss it in order to reaffirm or contradict that calculation methodology.
What is the purpose of the regression model?
Figure 1 compares transfer expenses regarding other leagues. However, is there a link between revenues and transfers, and to what extent do these depend on TV contracts?
Before studying the effect of the pandemic, they must present a robust model that explains why transfers and wages are rising.
What is the purpose of the Figure 2? Evolution of revenues should put in comparison with expenses. In addition, what is the percentage of these revenues and expenses dedicated to pay transfers and salaries? Is there an evolution?
The pandemics breaks this evolution, but this is not studied.
Methodology should be highly improved. The discussion is scarce. Scenarios are not put into question.
Author Response
Please see the attachment.
Author Response File: 
Author Response.pdf
Reviewer 2 Report
Dear Authors,
I have read your paper with great interest. Covid-19 pandemic caused many disaster not only in public health but also in economic situation and labor market. Negative consequences reach also football industry, what you describe and underline. Nevertheless I have some questions or suggestions. To make it easier I will point it:
- In background section I will add some brief information how Covid-19 infection could possibly influence on continuation of sports career of competitive athletes. See: Martinez MW, Tucker AM, Bloom OJ, et al. Prevalence of Inflammatory Heart Disease Among Professional Athletes With Prior COVID-19 Infection Who Received Systematic Return-to-Play Cardiac Screening. JAMA Cardiol. Published online March 04, 2021. doi:10.1001/jamacardio.2021.0565 (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2777308?fbclid=IwAR1pfCy-75ulv37wp4Oc2Aw54rCqGX9Wk0eAu6QemeFzp0RJ23fy6_e8mKQ ) or similar researches.
- Statistical analysis in your paper is based on regression model. Do the dependents variables (or its logarithm when it was uses) characterized by the normal distribution?
- Could you please explain why in tables 7-9 you do not present R2 coefficient similar you have done for models describe in tables 4 – 6?
- Presenting forecasting model I will suggest dividing the analyzing database for “learning period” (for example: from season 92/93 to 2013/14) and “testing period” (seasons 2014/15 – 18/19), where you could verify the correctness of forecast based on models parameters estimated by using “learning period” data. Then, in case of positive verifying the models, you can estimated them again based on whole sample (what you in fact have already done).
- I have not find information which statistical/econometrical software did you use for the statistical analysis. Please show me where it is or add this information to manuscript text.
- Do the football teams in PLE receive any financial help from the government and if yes (or will possibly get), do you consider how it may affect on your players salaries or other analyzing variables?
- In page 12 one can find the sentence “... the recent boom period will to the same extent …” (“to” or “do”?). Please read the whole text once again carefully.
Author Response
Please see the attachment.
Author Response File: Author Response.pdf
Reviewer 3 Report
The paper is basically suitable, but in my estimation still needs a significant revision.
In several places of the paper (p. 3, similarly p. 23 and 24) the authors write that the "paper adds to the understanding of the still unexplored economic impacts of the COVID-19 on sports". However, there are already some recent studies on this, including sports economics studies, e.g., in Soccer & Society, 22, 1-2 (2021), (https://www.tandfonline.com/toc/fsas20/22/1-2?nav=tocList) which should also be referred to.
The research question of the paper is not explicitly formulated. On p. 2 it says: "has raised the question of whether the ... the European football industry is based on a sustainable business model." This question is not explicitly answered in the paper. It should be done in chapter 5. If the business model is not sustainable, possible solutions should be identified or at least disussed.
Chapter 5 needs a significant overhaul overall. Although the chapter is called "Discussion," it is not really discussed. Here, in addition to answering the research question, the relationship between sustainability, the empirical results from Chapter 4 and the specifics of the soccer industry should be clearly highlighted. The chapter also needs more depth to contribute to the existing literature. For example, it could discuss which clubs are more and which are less affected and what this depends on. If, on average, most clubs cope with the crisis, problems may nevertheless arise if two or three clubs do not.
There is some repetition in the paper (e.g. the Kirch fact is listed 3x almost identically or that the trend in a recession is assumed to be in the opposite direction).
Additional notes:
P.9: „The two pricing valuation methods that can be distinguished …”
P.11: Abbreviations should be explained.
P.14: Is it really surprising that each revenue source seems to have a similar impact on net transfer expenses? Clubs do not distinguish between revenue sources when negotiating transfer fees and player wages.
P.16: “As of August 2020 …” – this section should be updated.
P.20: “Natural monopolies”. In economics, the term natural monopoly refers to a situation characterized by economies of scale. But it is very questionable whether a league is a natural monopoly in this sense. To say that the league is naturally a monopoly would be to get around that.
P.21: „Unique“. There are many other industries, where staff salaries are by far the largest part of operating cost – e.g. any service firm.
In some places the paper is still marked in yellow; I assume that this will be revised.
Author Response
Please see the attachment.
Author Response File: Author Response.pdf
Reviewer 4 Report
I find the article very interesting and well written, but I have some comments.
Firstly, looking at the date that the article was received by Sustainability (March 11), some information in the text is no longer up to date, including: "Once available, access to the vaccine is likely to be initially limited to healthcare workers and vulnerable citizens ". Looking at the number of vaccinated people in England, this information is no longer relevant. Moreover:"As of August 2020, the EPL has not yet communicated its plans for spectator admissions for the 2020/21 season ". Now it is slowly coming to an end of 2020/21 season so this should be upgraded.
Another inaccuracy is that: "In March 2020, the EPL, together with the Football Association, English Football League, the Women's Super League, and Women's Championship collectively suspended professional football in England. Other leagues followed". This may mislead the reader as the EPL was not the first league in Europe to suspend the competition (from BIG5 Serie A and LaLiga did it earlier).
I also have doubts about the length of the conclusion as it is the same as the discussion. I believe that the conclusion should contain only the key conclusions from the research, not once again the description of the results.
Overall, I found the article very interesting and I read it with pleasure and recommend for publication.
Author Response
Please see the attachment.
Author Response File: Author Response.pdf
Round 2
Reviewer 3 Report
The paper is substantially improved. From my side only a few comments:
P. 21: "Our paper tries to shed first light on the pandemic's expected impact on professional football." - Given the already extensive and growing literature on this topic, "first" is a bit presumptuous. The reference to some of the already existing literature on p. 3 seems crude, contrived and bumpy.
Predictions are always problematic when they concern the future and those mentioned in the paper may already be outdated by the latest developments on the European Super League as well as the reform of the UEFA Champions League. Perhaps the authors could point out this limitation - which should not be underestimated - of their statements.
Author Response
Please see the attachment.
Author Response File: Author Response.pdf
