A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan
3. Theoretical Background
3.1. Japanese Experiences of Urban and Societal Transformations
3.2. Transformation of Fundamental Lifestyle and Well-Being in the Japanese Context
3.3. Nature-Based Solution toward Sustainability beyond Growth
4. Narratives of Pathways for Japan
4.1. SSP1 Growth-dependence
4.2. SSP1 Beyond-growth
5. Benefits and Trade-Offs in System Alternatives between SSP1 Beyond-growth and SSP1 Growth-dependence
6. Global Crises, Impacts, and Recovery
Conflicts of Interest
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|Shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) Element||SSP1 Beyond-growth||SSP1 Growth-dependence||SSP2||SSP3||SSP4||SSP5|
|Population ||Moderate decrease||Moderate decrease||Moderate decrease||Strong decrease||Strong decrease||Marginal decrease|
|Population density pattern|
(Distribution of DID * area, SSP2 represents current.)
|Rural–Urban migration||Relatively small||Increase||Increase||Stay same||Increase||Increase|
|Urban–Rural migration||Increase||Relatively small||Relatively small||Stay same||Relatively small||Decrease|
|Urbanization||Slight increase||Slight increase||Constant||Decrease||Slight decrease||Strong increase|
|GDP growth ||Moderate (Lower than SSP1 Growth-dependence)||Moderate||Moderate||Low||Moderate||High|
|Inequality||Decrease||Relatively decrease||Increase between large and small cities||Increase||Increase between large and small cities||Strong increase|
|Urban form (Representative characteristics)||Center core and satellite clusters.||Balance between metropolis and middle-small cities.||Unbalanced monocentric with shrinkage.||Monocentric. Small cities at risk of disappearing.||Division between central and surrounding areas.||Monocentric.|
|Representative urban form diagram|
|Access to quality of nature||Green neighborhoods with access for all the residents. Good functions for food production, green spaces, and daily activities.||Urban centers with limited access. Suburbs with more access and well conserved.||Urban areas with access limited to parks and rural areas (agriculture + forest)||Suburbs with limited green space. Not well maintained.||Rural areas with good access. Not well maintained with some disaster risks.||Urban areas with little access. Little attention paid to green spaces.|
|Access to basic services||High.|
Balanced and flexible small scales service networks are more adopted.
Center has better access overall.
Large cities have better and higher quality services.
Service networks are old and inefficient.
Large cities have high quality services. Small cities and suburbs have insufficient services.
Urban centers have better quality and secured access.
|Infrastructure||Service infrastructure is decentralized and community based.||Centralized and heavy service infrastructures are located outside of cities.||Only center is well maintained. Maintenance is fragmented in suburbs.||Only large cities have sufficient maintenance.||Maintenance and upgrades rely on the densities and their local economies.||Further extensions occur in large cities for new residents and industries.|
|Building types||Mid-rise and low-rise. |
Wooden buildings increase.
Local materials increase.
S: mid-rise to low-rise.
Non-wooden buildings increase.
S: mid- to low-rise.
Non-wooden buildings increase in large cities.
Vacant buildings increase in suburbs and local cities.
L: mid-rise and low-rise (wooden housing).
S: mid- to low-rise.
Vacant buildings significantly increase in local cities.
|Energy efficiency and technology||High.|
Hybrid systems (automation and natural ventilation) are adopted and improve energy efficiency and material use.
Overall smart automation systems are adopted and significantly increase energy efficiency.
New updated buildings install efficient technologies.
Old stocks increase and efficient technologies cannot be installed overall.
Energy efficiency improvements and new technologies adoption heavily depend on income groups.
Only large cities significantly improve energy efficiency and upgrade the technologies.
|Building life time||Overall life time is extended with increase of renovations and reuse of vacant space, while local housings (wooden) have relatively short cycle.||Increase.||Constant with some renovations.||Short.||CC: Constant with some renovations.|
|Decrease with high economic growth.|
|Space per capita||Relatively smaller than today.||Relatively larger than today.||Stay same.||Relatively small space in urban and large in rural.||Increase in higher income areas, decrease in lower income areas.||Overall relatively small due to the limitation of land space.|
|Production & Consumption patterns||Decentralized production system with local circular economy.||Centralized production system with efficient domestic and global logistics systems.||Existing production clusters and large cities that are center of consumption.||Mismatched production and consumption within the domestic markets.||Significant inequality in consumption among domestic regions.||Increased overall production and consumption with less improvement of efficiency.|
|Commuting||Sharing mobility as well as small scale public transport increase. Walking and cycling are promoted.||Speed and efficiency are key. Vertical access also increases with high-rise buildings.||High speed connections are accelerated within the country. However, local transport systems are not sufficient.||Only large cities maintain efficient public transport services. Small cities and suburbs suffer from daily commutes.||Public transport services are maintained only in city centers. Residents of suburbs and rural areas use individual cars.||High speed trains and all logistics are promoted to accelerate the economies. People use more cars and trains for their holidays.|
|Energy demand||Maximum use of natural passive systems for heating, cooling, and lighting decreases energy demand per capita. Increase in walking and cycling also decrease energy demand for commutes.||Overall, use of efficient technologies decreases energy use per capita. However, technology devices per capita increase, which contribute to increased demand.||Improved energy efficiency gradually decreases energy demand per capita. However, old stocks still largely exist and increase energy demand.||Only successful cities update the building standard. However, overall energy demand per capita is high.||Only large-scale, compact cities improve their energy efficiency and decrease overall demand. Small cities suffer from old infrastructures with high energy demand.||Areas with strong economies update to new, highly efficient technologies. However, demand per capita still increases with increases in activities, and consumption.|
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Kamei, M.; Mastrucci, A.; van Ruijven, B.J. A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan. Sustainability 2021, 13, 1653. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13041653
Kamei M, Mastrucci A, van Ruijven BJ. A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan. Sustainability. 2021; 13(4):1653. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13041653Chicago/Turabian Style
Kamei, Miho, Alessio Mastrucci, and Bas J. van Ruijven. 2021. "A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan" Sustainability 13, no. 4: 1653. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13041653