The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Analysis
2.3. Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis Method
2.4. The Mann-Kendal Test
2.5. The Sen’s Estimator
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. IPTA Method
3.2. Comparison between the IPTA Method Results and Other Tests Results
4. Conclusions
- Size of trend lengths and trend slopes show the variability between months. For example, for Bordj Bou Naama Station, maximum trend lengths for arithmetic mean and standard deviation are 43.25 mm and 38.28 mm, respectively, while values of 3.32 and −59.02 are obtained for the maximum trend slopes, respectively. These values show that the transition between 2 months is severe.
- Results from the IPTA method have good agreement with commonly used non-parametric tests for each month.
- The IPTA method can be used to quantitively analyze and detect trends and can support results from other commonly used methods. The results from Man–Kendall test and Sen’s estimator are quite similar. The directions of the trend are the same in most cases in both methods.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
References
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Stations | ID | Name | Longitude (°) | Latitude (°) | Elevation (m) | Period of Observation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | 012304 | Souk El Had | 1.55 | 35.75 | 550 | 1968/69–2017/18 |
S2 | 012306 | Bordj Bounaama | 1.62 | 35.85 | 1050 | 1968/69–2017/18 |
S3 | 012307 | Ain Lellou | 1.54 | 35.93 | 900 | 1968/69–2017/18 |
S4 | 012308 | Ouled Ben A.E.K. | 1.27 | 36.03 | 160 | 1968/69–2017/18 |
S5 | 012309 | Oued Sly | 1.20 | 36.09 | 95 | 1968/69–2017/18 |
S6 | 012316 | SAADIA | 1.34 | 35.90 | 1000 | 1968/69–2017/18 |
S7 | 012318 | Sidi Yagoub Bge | 1.32 | 35.97 | 202 | 1968/69–2017/18 |
Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Year | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | Min | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 153.00 |
Max | 78.60 | 221.70 | 184.70 | 258.00 | 253.60 | 175.90 | 209.30 | 102.40 | 71.10 | 33.00 | 28.50 | 31.30 | 819.50 | |
Mean | 15.57 | 32.48 | 45.22 | 56.27 | 66.44 | 53.94 | 46.50 | 34.60 | 20.39 | 3.80 | 1.34 | 2.40 | 378.95 | |
SD | 16.90 | 37.58 | 39.18 | 50.95 | 53.13 | 45.26 | 39.66 | 26.12 | 22.84 | 8.00 | 4.75 | 6.48 | 155.73 | |
C (%) | 4.11 | 8.57 | 11.93 | 14.85 | 17.53 | 14.23 | 12.27 | 9.13 | 5.38 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.63 | 100.00 | |
S2 | Min | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 172.07 |
Max | 75.00 | 170.90 | 153.70 | 189.80 | 247.60 | 251.70 | 216.00 | 176.59 | 155.74 | 81.20 | 16.10 | 48.00 | 763.40 | |
Mean | 16.80 | 38.82 | 55.34 | 60.97 | 65.67 | 60.50 | 59.98 | 56.37 | 25.80 | 7.68 | 0.83 | 2.43 | 451.21 | |
SD | 17.54 | 42.33 | 40.77 | 41.72 | 52.91 | 59.25 | 47.01 | 53.45 | 37.86 | 17.14 | 2.59 | 7.88 | 148.17 | |
C (%) | 3.72 | 8.60 | 12.26 | 13.51 | 14.55 | 13.41 | 13.29 | 12.49 | 5.72 | 1.70 | 0.18 | 0.54 | 100.00 | |
S3 | Min | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 4.00 | 6.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 212.31 |
Max | 62.40 | 150.58 | 193.60 | 138.70 | 191.30 | 133.90 | 158.60 | 154.00 | 197.30 | 58.60 | 17.40 | 31.80 | 687.49 | |
Mean | 17.23 | 35.83 | 55.77 | 53.83 | 77.64 | 57.52 | 62.44 | 42.43 | 25.58 | 4.89 | 0.84 | 2.46 | 436.47 | |
SD | 16.61 | 32.87 | 46.92 | 28.36 | 53.02 | 36.59 | 35.16 | 35.40 | 41.87 | 10.20 | 2.74 | 6.82 | 122.71 | |
C (%) | 3.95 | 8.21 | 12.78 | 12.33 | 17.79 | 13.18 | 14.31 | 9.72 | 5.86 | 1.12 | 0.19 | 0.56 | 100.00 | |
S4 | Min | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 177.60 |
Max | 68.40 | 219.35 | 116.10 | 102.00 | 166.30 | 140.60 | 122.59 | 165.40 | 105.05 | 39.54 | 13.20 | 52.80 | 612.40 | |
Mean | 15.37 | 31.10 | 44.96 | 43.73 | 45.89 | 48.16 | 47.60 | 39.91 | 25.52 | 6.37 | 1.00 | 3.24 | 352.87 | |
SD | 16.02 | 40.67 | 28.17 | 26.93 | 32.17 | 36.43 | 32.68 | 36.71 | 25.82 | 9.48 | 2.57 | 10.11 | 100.74 | |
C (%) | 4.35 | 8.81 | 12.74 | 12.39 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 13.49 | 11.31 | 7.23 | 1.81 | 0.28 | 0.92 | 100.00 | |
S5 | Min | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 129.60 |
Max | 37.90 | 123.00 | 94.70 | 112.00 | 151.30 | 118.00 | 110.40 | 125.90 | 146.80 | 24.55 | 16.55 | 23.00 | 466.01 | |
Mean | 9.33 | 24.73 | 39.84 | 39.55 | 42.86 | 43.94 | 39.91 | 26.65 | 20.51 | 4.90 | 1.39 | 1.84 | 295.46 | |
SD | 9.81 | 23.96 | 23.30 | 27.83 | 30.35 | 34.28 | 30.32 | 26.10 | 28.68 | 7.38 | 3.50 | 4.31 | 81.08 | |
C (%) | 3.16 | 8.37 | 13.48 | 13.39 | 14.51 | 14.87 | 13.51 | 9.02 | 6.94 | 1.66 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 100.00 | |
S6 | Min | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 173.74 |
Max | 117.00 | 308.45 | 211.53 | 231.30 | 181.40 | 170.70 | 214.30 | 197.90 | 96.00 | 43.10 | 34.24 | 27.90 | 881.27 | |
Mean | 23.33 | 44.60 | 66.47 | 75.18 | 68.44 | 72.81 | 69.59 | 42.07 | 21.64 | 7.03 | 2.56 | 2.29 | 496.03 | |
SD | 26.54 | 54.42 | 55.58 | 51.13 | 51.83 | 46.77 | 48.95 | 49.04 | 27.95 | 11.46 | 6.38 | 5.87 | 157.77 | |
C (%) | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
S7 | Min | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 136.05 |
Max | 68.70 | 165.20 | 127.60 | 105.50 | 167.70 | 95.38 | 107.40 | 134.80 | 75.30 | 31.70 | 14.70 | 19.10 | 543.13 | |
Mean | 12.98 | 24.17 | 40.48 | 35.60 | 43.19 | 40.45 | 39.62 | 39.01 | 21.88 | 5.58 | 1.19 | 2.40 | 306.56 | |
SD | 14.53 | 29.16 | 29.20 | 26.13 | 29.19 | 28.74 | 27.41 | 36.73 | 18.96 | 8.65 | 2.81 | 4.18 | 91.85 | |
C (%) | 4.23 | 7.88 | 13.21 | 11.61 | 14.09 | 13.19 | 12.92 | 12.72 | 7.14 | 1.82 | 0.39 | 0.78 | 100.00 |
Stations | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Souk El Had | ||||||||||||
Bordj Bou Naama | ||||||||||||
Ain Lellou | ||||||||||||
Ouled Ben A.E.K. | ||||||||||||
Oued Sly | ||||||||||||
Saadia | ||||||||||||
Sidi Yakoub Bge |
Stations | Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Souk El Had | ||||||||||||
Bordj Bou Naama | ||||||||||||
Ain Lellou | ||||||||||||
Ouled Ben A.E.K. | ||||||||||||
Oued Sly | ||||||||||||
Saadia | ||||||||||||
Sidi Yakoub Bge |
Sep.–Oct. | Oct.–Nov. | Nov.–Dec. | Dec.–Jan. | Jan.–Feb. | Feb.–Mar. | Mar.–Apr. | Apr.–May | May–Jun. | Jun.–Jul. | Jul.–Aug. | Aug.–Sep. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | Length (mm) | 26.44 | 23.01 | 31.95 | 17.49 | 17.81 | 14.22 | 17.76 | 22.3 | 23.46 | 3.61 | 1.55 | 19.25 |
Slope | 0.36 | 8.76 | −0.28 | 5.49 | 0.78 | 21.17 | 0.5 | 0.35 | 0.94 | 0.58 | 1.6 | 1.72 | |
S2 | Length (mm) | 32.22 | 26.52 | 13.98 | 15.9 | 20.17 | 4.95 | 5.14 | 43.25 | 27.13 | 9.7 | 2.26 | 21.68 |
Slope | 0.58 | 3.32 | −0.18 | −2.71 | −2.27 | −1.36 | 0.77 | 1.05 | 0.48 | 0.87 | 0.91 | 2.18 | |
S3 | Length (mm) | 27.05 | 31.55 | 11.7 | 34.78 | 29.52 | 13.49 | 30.21 | 24.39 | 29.48 | 5.83 | 2.34 | 21.59 |
Slope | 0.61 | 3 | −1.64 | 0.59 | 0.57 | −0.25 | 0.46 | 1.56 | 0.78 | 0.68 | 1.48 | 1.71 | |
S4 | Length (mm) | 30.35 | 28.93 | 11.7 | 6.44 | 3.79 | 12.72 | 17.16 | 20.39 | 27.09 | 7.79 | 3.18 | 19.37 |
Slope | 0.04 | −24.42 | −1.35 | −3.32 | 0.23 | −1.13 | −0.1 | 1.12 | 0.94 | 1.58 | 0.86 | 3.22 | |
S5 | Length (mm) | 21.78 | 21.54 | 6.21 | 9.04 | 2.2 | 15.49 | 20.42 | 8.99 | 22.1 | 5.18 | 0.71 | 10.64 |
Slope | 0.98 | 1.29 | −1.14 | −4.08 | −40.54 | −2.31 | 0.4 | 1.72 | 0.92 | 0.54 | 0.31 | 1.19 | |
S6 | Length (mm) | 34.82 | 34.95 | 17.13 | 14.03 | 10.06 | 12.38 | 44.61 | 29.54 | 20.68 | 6.44 | 0.49 | 32.06 |
Slope | 0.26 | 3.22 | 0.02 | −25.76 | −8.05 | −2.31 | 0.28 | 1.54 | 0.91 | 1.48 | 8.25 | 2.34 | |
S7 | Length (mm) | 16.77 | 24.49 | 14.08 | 10.98 | 4.28 | 4.38 | 6.93 | 24.36 | 23.04 | 6.24 | 1.72 | 15.75 |
Slope | 0.48 | 2.11 | −3.57 | 1.55 | 0.36 | −1.77 | −0.78 | 1.24 | 1 | 0.85 | 0.98 | 1.98 |
Sep.–Oct. | Oct.–Nov. | Nov.–Dec. | Dec.–Jan. | Jan.–Feb. | Feb.–Mar. | Mar.–Apr. | Apr.–May. | May–Jun. | Jun.–Jul. | Jul.–Aug. | Aug.–Sep. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | Length (mm) | 35.36 | 18.79 | 28.57 | 28.56 | 12.43 | 10.24 | 20.15 | 3.35 | 21.22 | 6.51 | 3.78 | 14.13 |
Slope | 0.04 | −2.01 | −0.54 | −2.72 | 2.27 | 1.04 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 1.15 | 0.24 | 0.23 | 1.27 | |
S2 | Length (mm) | 38.28 | 5.47 | 2.77 | 18.79 | 32.63 | 17.99 | 18.58 | 25.61 | 29.39 | 21.08 | 7.62 | 12.51 |
Slope | 0.59 | −0.12 | 1.78 | −59.02 | −0.50 | 0.71 | −5.94 | 2.60 | 0.52 | 0.87 | 1.41 | 1.51 | |
S3 | Length (mm) | 24.79 | 20.11 | 25.16 | 35.18 | 23.24 | 3.72 | 7.91 | 15.48 | 45.38 | 10.62 | 6.37 | 13.31 |
Slope | 0.49 | 1.93 | 0.98 | 0.72 | 0.74 | 0.21 | −1.28 | −0.14 | 0.94 | 0.63 | 2.02 | 1.08 | |
S4 | Length (mm) | 41.41 | 31.88 | 4.35 | 7.92 | 10.69 | 7.75 | 14.01 | 18.20 | 24.14 | 10.44 | 10.83 | 8.64 |
Slope | 0.02 | −0.43 | −1.33 | 2.23 | −0.20 | 0.25 | −3.00 | 7.56 | 0.72 | 2.62 | 0.84 | 9.53 | |
S5 | Length (mm) | 20.24 | 6.71 | 6.44 | 5.04 | 8.19 | 6.23 | 5.58 | 4.70 | 30.57 | 5.39 | 1.90 | 8.03 |
Slope | 0.71 | −0.79 | 0.93 | −11.14 | 0.01 | 0.83 | 2.37 | −0.01 | 0.72 | 0.87 | −0.28 | 1.05 | |
S6 | Length (mm) | 53.28 | 23.71 | 6.38 | 8.01 | 7.45 | 1.82 | 6.86 | 31.43 | 24.63 | 7.46 | 2.34 | 27.72 |
Slope | 0.03 | −1.64 | 0.24 | −1.08 | 0.18 | 0.24 | −1.56 | 1.77 | 0.48 | 0.79 | −1.38 | 2.24 | |
S7 | Length (mm) | 24.07 | 13.97 | 5.22 | 8.05 | 5.29 | 2.24 | 14.22 | 25.40 | 14.74 | 8.41 | 2.04 | 14.20 |
Slope | 0.19 | −1.15 | 16.40 | −4.38 | −1.09 | 0.64 | 2.28 | 1.14 | 1.34 | 1.20 | 0.93 | 1.07 |
Sep. | Oct. | Nov. | Dec. | Jan. | Feb. | Mar. | Apr. | May | Jun. | Jul. | Aug. | Year | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | MK | 1.263 | 0.351 | 1.506 | −2.125 * | −1.104 | −0.427 | −1.623 | −2.484 * | −0.895 | −0.402 | 0.050 | 0.928 | −1.606 |
SS | 0.156 | 0.054 | 0.467 | −0.907 | −0.495 | −0.211 | −0.557 | −0.650 | −0.041 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | −2.565 | |
S2 | MK | 2.158 * | 0.552 | 1.280 | −0.309 | 1.205 | 0.443 | −0.017 | −1.882 + | −0.770 | −0.694 | 0.443 | −0.059 | 0.368 |
SS | 0.197 | 0.098 | 0.466 | −0.140 | 0.544 | 0.188 | −0.025 | −0.683 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.629 | |
S3 | MK | 0.995 | −0.017 | 2.091 * | 0.393 | 0.284 | 0.167 | −1.054 | −1.246 | −0.795 | −1.113 | −0.945 | −0.243 | −0.167 |
SS | 0.105 | −0.005 | 0.827 | 0.090 | 0.122 | 0.074 | −0.347 | −0.358 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | −0.245 | |
S4 | MK | 1.305 | −0.309 | 0.363 | −1.288 | 0.000 | 0.301 | −1.188 | −1.121 | −0.418 | −0.485 | −1.113 | −1.690 + | −0.452 |
SS | 0.145 | −0.047 | 0.384 | −0.360 | 0.000 | 0.095 | −0.420 | −0.283 | −0.059 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | −0.531 | |
S5 | MK | 0.243 | 0.460 | 0.602 | −1.179 | 0.151 | 0.560 | −0.803 | −0.711 | −0.903 | −1.062 | −0.159 | −0.326 | −0.368 |
SS | 0.012 | 0.064 | 0.158 | −0.387 | 0.039 | 0.160 | −0.245 | −0.150 | −0.075 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | −0.353 | |
S6 | MK | 1.322 | 0.402 | 1.690 + | −0.728 | −0.619 | −0.652 | −0.770 | 1.113 | 1.489 | 2.233 * | 2.183 * | 2.359 * | −0.435 |
SS | 0.140 | 0.090 | 0.681 | −0.430 | −0.284 | −0.265 | −0.340 | 0.128 | 0.051 | 0.026 | 0.000 | 0.000 | −1.064 | |
S7 | MK | 1.263 | 0.703 | 1.874 + | −1.330 | −0.728 | 0.142 | −0.075 | −1.096 | −0.703 | −1.380 | −4.065 *** | −2.166 * | −0.084 |
SS | 0.122 | 0.109 | 0.504 | −0.380 | −0.141 | 0.037 | −0.018 | −0.262 | −0.135 | −0.005 | 0.005 | −0.029 | −0.124 |
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Achite, M.; Ceribasi, G.; Ceyhunlu, A.I.; Wałęga, A.; Caloiero, T. The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area. Sustainability 2021, 13, 12674. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132212674
Achite M, Ceribasi G, Ceyhunlu AI, Wałęga A, Caloiero T. The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area. Sustainability. 2021; 13(22):12674. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132212674
Chicago/Turabian StyleAchite, Mohammed, Gokmen Ceribasi, Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu, Andrzej Wałęga, and Tommaso Caloiero. 2021. "The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area" Sustainability 13, no. 22: 12674. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132212674