Analyzing Spatiotemporal Development of Organic Farming in Poland
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Materials
2.2. Methods
2.2.1. Dynamic Synthetic Measure
- Presenting the diagnostic variable of organic farming (Table 1) Xj (j = 1, 2, …, m) for each commune Oi (i = 1, 2, …, n) in each studied period in the form of a two-dimensional matrix (1):
- Conducting preliminary correlation and variability analysis to exclude variables due to their strong association with each other and low degree of variability. Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient was adopted to measure the strength and direction of the correlation between the observed variables (the Student’s t-test for significance of correlation was also applied) [36]. Variability was expressed by the coefficient of variation (CV), which is generally claimed to be more than 10% [37].
- Normalizing the variables to maintain comparability of statistical data. The stimulants are normalized with the Formula (2):
- Calculating the dynamic synthetic measure (DSMit) as an arithmetical mean of normalized (2) and (3) variable values (4):
- 5.
- Map visualization, which plays a key role in interpreting the results of variability and understanding the state and development of organic farming from a spatiotemporal perspective.
2.2.2. Spatial Autocorrelation
3. Results
3.1. Preliminary Data Analysis
3.2. Synthetic Measure of Organic Farming
3.3. Spatial Autocorrelation in Ecofarming
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Funding
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Order of Contiguity (Including Lower Order/s) | LISA Clusters/Outliers | DSM2020 | DSM2019 | DSM2018 | DSM2017 | DSM2016 | DSM2015 | DSM2014 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1st | Moran’s I | 0.28 *** | 0.23 *** | 0.22 *** | 0.25 *** | 0.27 *** | 0.20 *** | 0.18 *** |
HH | 155 | 147 | 134 | 148 | 155 | 119 | 136 | |
LL | 348 | 361 | 296 | 352 | 383 | 311 | 306 | |
LH | 55 | 59 | 61 | 49 | 49 | 73 | 67 | |
HL | 22 | 38 | 39 | 30 | 36 | 22 | 29 | |
Not sig. | 1987 | 1872 | 1947 | 1898 | 1854 | 1952 | 1939 | |
2nd | Moran’s I | 0.21 *** | 0.17 *** | 0.17 *** | 0.20 *** | 0.20 *** | 0.14 *** | 0.12 *** |
(0.23 ***) | (0.19 ***) | (0.19 ***) | (0.22 ***) | (0.22 ***) | (0.16 ***) | (0.14 ***) | ||
HH | 184 | 175 | 175 | 185 | 180 | 129 | 150 | |
(219) | (214) | (215) | (213) | (221) | (165) | (180) | ||
LL | 515 | 536 | 468 | 556 | 601 | 525 | 429 | |
(623) | (656) | (610) | (665) | (698) | (631) | (523) | ||
LH | 95 | 90 | 111 | 96 | 105 | 109 | 111 | |
(105) | (97) | (109) | (95) | (107) | (126) | (121) | ||
HL | 44 | 45 | 31 | 46 | 49 | 48 | 55 | |
(55) | (65) | (51) | (57) | (47) | (60) | (60) | ||
Not sig. | 1639 | 1631 | 1692 | 1594 | 1542 | 1666 | 1732 | |
(1475) | (1445) | (1492) | (1447) | (1404) | (1495) | (1593) | ||
3rd | Moran’s I | 0.14 *** | 0.11 *** | 0.10 *** | 0.12 *** | 0.13 *** | 0.10 *** | 0.09 *** |
(0.18 ***) | (0.15 ***) | (0.14 ***) | (0.17 ***) | (0.17 ***) | (0.13 ***) | (0.11 ***) | ||
HH | 190 | 183 | 173 | 199 | 193 | 150 | 149 | |
(252) | (243) | (251) | (264) | (265) | (229) | (233) | ||
LL | 557 | 591 | 521 | 539 | 628 | 612 | 478 | |
(736) | (740) | (697) | (777) | (824) | (790) | (636) | ||
LH | 127 | 134 | 141 | 123 | 125 | 129 | 126 | |
(138) | (144) | (168) | (143) | (149) | (183) | (171) | ||
HL | 75 | 74 | 62 | 76 | 69 | 74 | 75 | |
(79) | (83) | (69) | (89) | (83) | (87) | (82) | ||
Not sig. | 1528 | 1495 | 1580 | 1486 | 1462 | 1512 | 1649 | |
(1272) | (1267) | (1292) | (1204) | (1156) | (1188) | (1355) | ||
4th | Moran’s I | 0.09 *** | 0.07 *** | 0.06 *** | 0.08 *** | 0.08 *** | 0.07 *** | 0.06 *** |
(0.15 ***) | (0.12 ***) | (0.11 ***) | (0.13 ***) | (0.14 ***) | (0.11 ***) | (0.09 ***) | ||
HH | 181 | 177 | 141 | 171 | 173 | 154 | 146 | |
(260) | (263) | (264) | (313) | (306) | (270) | (261) | ||
LL | 568 | 594 | 526 | 613 | 642 | 613 | 515 | |
(824) | (812) | (756) | (874) | (910) | (845) | (694) | ||
LH | 145 | 153 | 169 | 148 | 154 | 166 | 141 | |
(168) | (185) | (220) | (184) | (202) | (244) | (231) | ||
HL | 72 | 77 | 65 | 75 | 83 | 72 | 82 | |
(93) | (113) | (89) | (107) | (107) | (96) | (112) | ||
Not sig. | 1511 | 1476 | 1576 | 1470 | 1425 | 1472 | 1593 | |
(1132) | (1104) | (1148) | (999) | (952) | (1022) | (1179) | ||
5th | Moran’s I | 0.07 *** | 0.06 *** | 0.05 *** | 0.06 *** | 0.06 *** | 0.05 *** | 0.05 *** |
(0.12 ***) | (0.10 ***) | (0.09 ***) | (0.11 ***) | (0.11 ***) | (0.09 ***) | (0.08 ***) | ||
6th | Moran’s I | 0.06 *** | 0.05 *** | 0.04 *** | 0.05 *** | 0.06 *** | 0.05 *** | 0.04 *** |
(0.11 ***) | (0.08 ***) | (0.07 ***) | (0.09 ***) | (0.10 ***) | (0.08 ***) | (0.07 ***) | ||
7th | Moran’s I | 0.05 *** | 0.04 *** | 0.03 *** | 0.05 *** | 0.05 *** | 0.03 *** | 0.04 *** |
(0.09 ***) | (0.07 ***) | (0.06 ***) | (0.08 ***) | (0.09 ***) | (0.07 ***) | (0.06 ***) | ||
8th | Moran’s I | 0.03 *** | 0.02 ** | 0.02 ** | 0.03 *** | 0.03 *** | 0.02 ** | 0.02 ** |
(0.08 ***) | (0.06 ***) | (0.05 ***) | (0.07 ***) | (0.07 ***) | (0.06 ***) | (0.05 ***) | ||
9th | Moran’s I | 0.03 *** | 0.02 ** | 0.01 ** | 0.02 ** | 0.03 *** | 0.02 ** | 0.02 ** |
(0.07 ***) | (0.05 ***) | (0.05 ***) | (0.06 ***) | (0.07 ***) | (0.05 ***) | (0.05 ***) | ||
10th | Moran’s I | 0.03 *** | 0.02 ** | 0.01 ** | 0.02 ** | 0.02 ** | 0.01 ** | 0.02 ** |
(0.06 ***) | (0.05 ***) | (0.04 ***) | (0.05 ***) | (0.06 ***) | (0.04 ***) | (0.04 ***) | ||
11th | Moran’s I | 0.03 *** | 0.01 ** | 0.01 ** | 0.02 ** | 0.02 ** | 0.01 ** | 0.02 ** |
(0.06 ***) | (0.04 ***) | (0.04 ***) | (0.05 ***) | (0.05 ***) | (0.04 ***) | (0.04 ***) | ||
12th | Moran’s I | 0.02 ** | 0.01 ** | 0.008 * | 0.01 ** | 0.005 * | 0.006 * | 0.01 ** |
(0.05 ***) | (0.04 ***) | (0.03 **) | (0.04 ***) | (0.05 ***) | (0.03 **) | (0.03 **) | ||
13th | Moran’s I | 0.01 ** | 0.005 ** | −0.002 | 0.003 | −0.004 | −0.008 * | 0.006 |
(0.05 ***) | (0.03 **) | (0.03 **) | (0.04 ***) | (0.04 ***) | (0.03 **) | (0.03 **) | ||
14th | Moran’s I | 0.006 * | −0.001 | −0.003 | −0.001 | −0.007 * | −0.007 * | −0.003 |
(0.04 ***) | (0.03 **) | (0.02 *) | (0.03 **) | (0.03 **) | (0.02 *) | (0.03 **) | ||
15th | Moran’s I | 0.007 ** | 0.007 ** | −0.001 | 0.001 | −0.007 * | −0.007 * | −0.004 * |
(0.04 ***) | (0.03 **) | (0.02 *) | (0.03 **) | (0.03 **) | (0.02 *) | (0.02 *) | ||
16th | Moran’s I | 0.005 * | 0.004 | 0.002 | −0.003 | −0.003 | −0.005 * | 0.001 |
(0.03 **) | (0.02 *) | (0.01 *) | (0.02 *) | (0.03 **) | (0.02 *) | (0.02 *) | ||
17th | Moran’s I | −0.001 | −0.002 | −0.001 | −0.01 ** | −0.01 ** | −0.01 ** | −0.002 |
(0.03 **) | (0.02 *) | (0.01 *) | (0.02 *) | (0.02 *) | (0.01 *) | (0.02 *) | ||
HH | 53 | 38 | 56 | 38 | 37 | 17 | 38 | |
(284) | (279) | (269) | (271) | (251) | (159) | (262) | ||
LL | 514 | 470 | 424 | 476 | 518 | 506 | 393 | |
(1071) | (982) | (922) | (1015) | (1003) | (968) | (927) | ||
LH | 132 | 102 | 120 | 103 | 104 | 91 | 96 | |
(453) | (415) | (465) | (343) | (306) | (321) | (328) | ||
HL | 145 | 152 | 160 | 203 | 238 | 185 | 160 | |
(210) | (211) | (197) | (204) | (207) | (165) | (205) | ||
Not sig. | 1633 | 1715 | 1717 | 1657 | 1580 | 1678 | 1790 | |
(459) | (590) | (624) | (644) | (710) | (864) | (755) | ||
30th | Moran’s I | −0.05 *** | −0.05 *** | −0.02 ** | −0.04 *** | −0.04 *** | −0.02 ** | −0.02 ** |
(0.08 *) | (0.003 *) | (0.002 *) | (0.001 *) | (−0.001) | (−0.001) | (0.003 *) | ||
HH | 67 | 74 | 76 | 74 | 75 | 83 | 91 | |
(216) | (120) | (93) | (59) | (21) | (18) | (146) | ||
LL | 2500 | 221 | 208 | 193 | 182 | 163 | 199 | |
(904) | (975) | (922) | (1034) | (1135) | (1131) | (1052) | ||
LH | 427 | 403 | 369 | 428 | 414 | 362 | 376 | |
(418) | (259) | (177) | (207) | (169) | (181) | (319) | ||
HL | 206 | 179 | 132 | 166 | 139 | 114 | 138 | |
(218) | (266) | (304) | (342) | (405) | (380) | (312) | ||
Not sig. | 1435 | 1508 | 1600 | 1524 | 1575 | 1663 | 1581 | |
(721) | (857) | (1041) | (835) | (747) | (767) | (648) | ||
Neighborless | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 | 92 |
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Diagnostic Variables | Av. | CV [%] | AC: [% or pp] | GM | Include in DSM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Entities | |||||
Organic producers [per 1000 entities entered in the national official register] | 17.4 | 303 | −39 | 0.67 *** | No |
Share of the organic agricultural area [% of the total agricultural area] | 3.1 | 260 | −33 | 0.22 *** | No |
Plants | |||||
Yields of cereals (maize, oats, barley, rye, triticale, wheat) grown for grain (including seed) [kg per capita] | 11.1 | 296 | 120 | 0.36 *** | Yes |
Dry bean harvest [kg per inhabitant] | 1.5 | 368 | 281 | 0.35 *** | Yes |
Harvest of root crops (potatoes, sugar beet and other) [kg per capita] | 1.3 | 495 | 14 | 0.20 *** | Yes |
Harvest of industrial plants (hops, rape, colza, sunflower, soybean, flax, medicinal and spice plants) [kg per capita] | 0.6 | 1322 | 984 | 0.01 ** | Yes |
Harvest of vegetables (brassica, leaf, stem, onion, root, peas, beans, mushrooms) [kg per capita] | 2.4 | 588 | 267 | 0.16 *** | Yes |
Harvest of strawberries and wild strawberries [kg per capita] | 0.4 | 860 | 53 | 0.15 *** | Yes |
Fodder crops (maize, fodder beet, dicotyledonous, grass) [tons per hectare of organic area] | 1.5 | 138 | −14 | 0.42 *** | Yes |
Harvest of crops from seed plantations [tons per hectare of organic area] | 4.9 | 2423 | −99 | −0.02 | Yes |
Harvest from fruit trees and shrubs (fruit and berry crops) [kg per capita] | 5 | 643 | 260 | 0.18 *** | Yes |
Harvest from vineyards [kg per inhabitant] | 0.04 | 2552 | 1005 | 0.001 | Yes |
Harvest of flowers and ornamental plants [kg per capita] | 0.001 | 4876 | −100 | −0.001 | Yes |
Animals | |||||
The number of cattle kept for meat and milk [per 1000 population] | 1.8 | 583 | −5 | 0.11 *** | Yes |
The number of pigs (fatteners, sows) [per 1000 population] | 0.3 | 816 | −65 | 0.05 * | Yes |
Sheep (ewes and others) [per 1000 population] | 1 | 654 | −43 | 0.09 ** | Yes |
Headcount of goats (mothers and others) [per 1000 population] | 0.2 | 678 | −21 | 0.04 *** | Yes |
Number of rabbits (female and other) [per 1000 population] | 0.4 | 2822 | 96 | −0.001 | Yes |
Poultry (broilers, chickens, ducks, turkeys, geese, ostriches) [per 1000 population] | 15.9 | 654 | 102 | 0.02 ** | Yes |
The number of horses (equines) [per 1000 population] | 0.04 | 534 | 164 | 0.07 *** | Yes |
The number of deer (noble and sika) and fallow deer [per 1000 population] | 0.2 | 1740 | −76 | 0.01** | Yes |
The number of snails [kg per capita] | 0.01 | 6300 | 100 | −0.001 | Yes |
Products | |||||
Production of milk and cream [litres per capita] | 1.2 | 1203 | 55 | 0.06 ** | Yes |
Production of butter, cheese [kg per capita] | 220.7 | 1313 | 55 | 0.05 ** | Yes |
Egg production (including eggs for consumption) [number per capita] | 2.3 | 943 | 327 | 0.03 ** | Yes |
Meat production [kg per capita] | 0.001 | 2659 | −29 | −0.01 | Yes |
Honey production [kg per capita] | 0.04 | 4797 | 1500 | −0.01 | Yes |
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Antczak, E. Analyzing Spatiotemporal Development of Organic Farming in Poland. Sustainability 2021, 13, 10399. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810399
Antczak E. Analyzing Spatiotemporal Development of Organic Farming in Poland. Sustainability. 2021; 13(18):10399. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810399
Chicago/Turabian StyleAntczak, Elżbieta. 2021. "Analyzing Spatiotemporal Development of Organic Farming in Poland" Sustainability 13, no. 18: 10399. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810399