Stochastic Planning and Operational Constraint Assessment of System-Customer Power Supply Risks in Electricity Distribution Networks
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- A new reliability modelling methodology that incorporates different expected lifetimes for each power component and different network operational modes;
- Use of probabilistic curve fitting to model overloading violations and maintenance actions in distribution network operation;
- A new monetary reliability index to assess the impact of different network operation modes on customer interruption costs; and
- Reliability cost-benefit analysis of operating the network under different operational constraints.
2. Risk and Reliability Modelling
2.1. Time-Sequential Simulation
2.2. Power Component Ageing
2.3. Impact of Time-Varying Failure Rates
2.4. Impact of Overloading Violations
2.5. Impact of Maintenance Actions
2.6. Reliability Cost-Benefit Analysis
2.6.1. Estimation of Customer Interruption Cost
2.6.2. Formulation of the Cost-Based Index
3. Validation and Network Modelling
3.1. Network Design
3.2. Network Scenarios
3.2.1. S-1 Constant Failure Rates
3.2.2. S-2 Base Case
3.2.3. Violations Due to Overloading
- A.
- S-3 Non-linear Method Modelled by Skewing Bathtub
- B.
- S-4 Linear method modelled by reducing PC lifetime
3.2.4. Maintenance Actions
- A.
- S-5 High-frequency maintenance modelled by a linear method of lowering bathtub
- B.
- S-6 Low-frequency maintenance modelled by a nonlinear method of sawtooth bathtub distribution
4. Reliability Performance Assessment
4.1. Constant vs. Time-Varying Failure Rates
4.2. Impact of Overloading Violations
4.2.1. Interruption Duration and Frequency
4.2.2. Energy Not Supplied and Interruption Cost
4.3. Impact of Maintenance Actions
4.3.1. Interruption Duration and Frequency
4.3.2. Energy Not Supplied and Interruption Cost
5. Conclusions
- Novel component lifetime modelling of failure rate distributions;
- Modelling of different network operational conditions using probabilistic curve fitting of the bathtub distribution; and
- Reliability cost-benefit analysis of operating the distribution network under different operational constraints.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Power Component | λ (/year) | μ (h) | EL (years) |
---|---|---|---|
33 kV bus | 0.08 | 140 | 25 |
11 kV bus | 0.05 | 120 | 25 |
415 V bus | 0.05 | 24 | 25 |
33/11 kV Transformer | 0.01 | 205.5 | 20 |
11/0.4 kV Transformer | 0.002 | 75 | 10 |
Circuit breaker | 0.0033 | 120.9 | 10 |
Fuse (11 kV and LV) | 0.0004 | 35.3 | 20 |
Overhead line | 0.091 * | 9.5 | 25 |
Underground cable | 0.051 * | 56.2 | 25 |
ID | Scenario | Description |
---|---|---|
S-1 | Constant failure rates | Fixed failure rates |
S-2 | Base case | Time-varying failure rates |
S-3 | Overloading violations; non-linear method | Longer wear-out |
S-4 | Overloading violations; linear method | Reduced lifetime |
S-5 | High-frequency maintenance; linear method | Reduced failure rate |
S-6 | Low-frequency maintenance; nonlinear method | Sawtooth bathtub curves |
ID | Scenario | SAIFI (int/cust/yr) | SAIDI (h/cust/yr) | ENS (kWh/cust/yr) | SAICI (£/cust/yr) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
S-1 | Constant failure rates | 0.153 | 12.731 | 392.63 | 2844.40 |
S-2 | Bathtub beta distribution | 0.132 | 8.060 | 248.02 | 1804.56 |
Percent decrease | 13.70% | 36.70% | 36.83% | 36.55% |
ID | Scenario | SAIFI (int/cust/yr) | SAIDI (h/cust/yr) | ENS (kWh/cust/yr) | SAICI (£/cust/yr) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
S-2 | Base case | 0.132 | 8.059 | 248.02 | 1804.56 |
S-3 | Overloading violations by skewing bathtub to have longer wear-out | 0.143 | 9.554 | 295.93 | 2274.80 |
Percent increase from the base case | 7.34% | 18.54% | 19.32% | 26.06% | |
S-4 | Overloading violations by reducing PC lifetime | 0.135 | 8.475 | 260.97 | 1887.45 |
Percent increase from the base case | 1.65% | 5.15% | 5.22% | 4.59% |
ID | Scenario | SAIFI (int/cust/yr) | SAIDI (h/cust/yr) | ENS (kWh/cust/yr) | SAICI (£/cust/yr) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
S-2 | Base case | 0.132 | 8.06 | 248.02 | 1804.56 |
S-5 | High-frequency maintenance actions by lowering bathtub | 0.112 | 7.13 | 219.12 | 1560.41 |
Percent decrease from the base case | 15.25% | 11.57% | 11.65% | 13.53% | |
S-6 | Low-frequency maintenance actions by sawtooth curves | 0.131 | 7.88 | 239.74 | 1721.19 |
Percent decrease from the base case | 1.02% | 2.29% | 3.34% | 4.62% |
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Kisuule, M.; Hernando-Gil, I.; Serugunda, J.; Namaganda-Kiyimba, J.; Ndawula, M.B. Stochastic Planning and Operational Constraint Assessment of System-Customer Power Supply Risks in Electricity Distribution Networks. Sustainability 2021, 13, 9579. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179579
Kisuule M, Hernando-Gil I, Serugunda J, Namaganda-Kiyimba J, Ndawula MB. Stochastic Planning and Operational Constraint Assessment of System-Customer Power Supply Risks in Electricity Distribution Networks. Sustainability. 2021; 13(17):9579. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179579
Chicago/Turabian StyleKisuule, Mikka, Ignacio Hernando-Gil, Jonathan Serugunda, Jane Namaganda-Kiyimba, and Mike Brian Ndawula. 2021. "Stochastic Planning and Operational Constraint Assessment of System-Customer Power Supply Risks in Electricity Distribution Networks" Sustainability 13, no. 17: 9579. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13179579