An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways

Nishiura, Osamu; Tamura, Makoto; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Takakura, Junya; Hijioka, Yasuaki

doi:10.3390/su12093737

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An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways

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Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, C1-3, Kyotodaigaku-Katsura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan

Global and Local Environment Co-creation Institute, Ibaraki University, 2-1-1 Bunkyo, Mito, Ibaraki 310-8512, Japan

National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz-1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Sustainability 2020, 12(9), 3737; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093737

Received: 17 March 2020 / Revised: 24 April 2020 / Accepted: 2 May 2020 / Published: 5 May 2020

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Economic Valuation of Climate Change Impacts)

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Abstract

Coastal areas provide important services and functions for social and economic activities. Damage due to sea level rise (SLR) is one of the serious problems anticipated and caused by climate change. In this study, we assess the global economic impact of inundation due to SLR by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates detailed coastal damage information. The scenario analysis considers multiple general circulation models, socioeconomic assumptions, and stringency of climate change mitigation measures. We found that the global household consumption loss proportion will be 0.045%, with a range of 0.027−0.066%, in 2100. Socioeconomic assumptions cause a difference in the loss proportion of up to 0.035% without greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation, the so-called baseline scenarios. The range of the loss proportion among GHG emission scenarios is smaller than the differences among the socioeconomic assumptions. We also observed large regional variations and, in particular, the consumption losses in low-income countries are, relatively speaking, larger than those in high-income countries. These results indicate that, even if we succeed in stabilizing the global mean temperature increase below 2 °C, economic losses caused by SLR will inevitably happen to some extent, which may imply that keeping the global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C would be worthwhile to consider. View Full-Text

Keywords: climate change; sea level rise; CGE model; RCP/SSP scenario

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Nishiura, O.; Tamura, M.; Fujimori, S.; Takahashi, K.; Takakura, J.; Hijioka, Y. An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. Sustainability 2020, 12, 3737. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093737

AMA Style

Nishiura O, Tamura M, Fujimori S, Takahashi K, Takakura J, Hijioka Y. An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. Sustainability. 2020; 12(9):3737. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093737

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nishiura, Osamu, Makoto Tamura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Junya Takakura, and Yasuaki Hijioka. 2020. "An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways" Sustainability 12, no. 9: 3737. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093737

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An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways

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