Next Article in Journal
Investigating the Relationship between the Industrial Structure and Atmospheric Environment by an Integrated System: A Case Study of Zhejiang, China
Previous Article in Journal
Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Historic Constructions in the Downtown of Mexico City
Open AccessArticle

Estimating the Potential for Conservation and Farming in the Amazon and Cerrado under Four Policy Scenarios

1
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1710 University Avenue, Madison, WI 53726, USA
2
Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, UK
3
UN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Center, Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK
4
Luc Hoffmann Institute, c/o WWF International, Avenue du Mont Blanc, 1196 Gland, Switzerland
5
Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales y Evolutivas, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia 5090000, Chile
6
Instituto de Manejo e Certificação Florestal e Agrícola (Imaflora), 185 Estrada Chico Mendes, Piracicaba, SP 13426 420, Brazil
7
Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 550 North Park Street, Madison, WI 53706, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2020, 12(3), 1277; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12031277
Received: 19 December 2019 / Revised: 3 February 2020 / Accepted: 5 February 2020 / Published: 10 February 2020
Since 2013, clearing rates have rapidly increased in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. This acceleration has raised questions about the efficacy of current regional public and private conservation policies that seek to promote agricultural production while conserving remnants of natural vegetation. In this study, we assessed conservation and agricultural outcomes of four potential policy scenarios that represent perfect adherence to private sector, zero-deforestation commitments (i.e., the Amazon soy moratorium—ASM and the Amazon cattle agreements—CA) and to varying levels of implementation of the Brazilian Forest Code (FC). Under a zero-clearing scenario, we find that the extent of croplands as of 2017 within the two biomes (31 MHa) could double without further clearing if agriculture were to expand on all previously cleared land that is suitable for crops. Moreover, at least 47 MHa of land that is already cleared but unsuitable for crops would remain available for pasture. Under scenarios in which only legal clearing under the FC could occur, 51 MHa of additional natural vegetation could be cleared. This includes as many as 1 MHa of nonforest vegetation that could be cleared in the Amazon biome without triggering the ASM and CA monitoring systems. Two-thirds of the total vegetation vulnerable to legal clearing is located within the Cerrado biome, and 19 MHa of this land is suitable for cropland expansion. Legal clearing of all of these areas could reduce biodiversity persistence by 4% within the two biomes, when compared with the zero-clearing scenario, and release up to 9 PgCO2e, with the majority (75%) coming from the Cerrado biome. However, when we considered the potential outcomes of full implementation of the FC, we found that 22% (11 MHa) of the 51 MHa of vegetation subject to legal clearing could be protected through the environmental quotas market, while an additional 1 MHa should be replanted across the two biomes, predominantly in the Amazon biome (73% of the area subject to replanting). Together, quotas and replanting could prevent the release of 2 PgCO2e that would otherwise be emitted if all legal clearing occurred. Based on our results, we conclude that ongoing legal clearing could create additional space for cropland and cattle production beyond the substantial existing stocks of cleared areas but would significantly impair local carbon and biodiversity stocks. View Full-Text
Keywords: Brazil; Amazon; Cerrado; Forest Code; supply chain; soy moratorium; cattle agreements Brazil; Amazon; Cerrado; Forest Code; supply chain; soy moratorium; cattle agreements
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Brandão Jr., A., Jr.; Rausch, L.; Paz Durán, A.; Costa Jr., C., Jr.; Spawn, S.A.; Gibbs, H.K. Estimating the Potential for Conservation and Farming in the Amazon and Cerrado under Four Policy Scenarios. Sustainability 2020, 12, 1277.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop