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Open AccessArticle

Long-Term Forecast of Energy and Fuels Demand Towards a Sustainable Road Transport Sector in Ecuador (2016–2035): A LEAP Model Application

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Department of Energy and Fuels, Mining and Energy Engineering School, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28003 Madrid, Spain
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University Research Institute for Sustainability Science and Technology, Transversal Unit of Road Scope Management, Universidad Politécnica de Catalunya, 08034 Barcelona, Spain
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Campus Gustavo Galindo, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Guayaquil P.O. Box 09-01-5863, Ecuador
4
Faculty of Graduate Studies, Universidad Espíritu Santo, Guayas P.O. Box 09-01-5863, Ecuador
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2020, 12(2), 472; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12020472
Received: 16 November 2019 / Revised: 3 January 2020 / Accepted: 5 January 2020 / Published: 8 January 2020
The total energy demand in the transport sector represented 48.80% of the total consumption in Ecuador throughout 2016, where 89.87% corresponded to the road transport sector. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze the future behavior of this sector and assess the economic and environmental measures towards sustainable development. Consequently, this study analyzed: (1) the total energy demand for each vehicle class and fuel type; (2) the GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions and air pollutants NOx and PM10; and (3) the cost attributed to the fuel demand, between 2016 and 2035. For this, four alternative demand scenarios were designed: BAU: Business As Usual; EOM: Energy Optimization and Mitigation; AF: Alternative Fuels; and SM: Sustainable Mobility using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system. After analysis, the EOM, AF, and SM scenarios have advantages relative to BAU, where SM particularly stands out. The results show that SM compared to BAU, contributes with a 12.14% (141,226 kBOE) decrease of the total energy demand, and the economic savings for this fuel demand is of 14.22% (26,720 MUSD). Moreover, global NOx and PM10 emissions decreased by 14.91% and 13.78%, respectively. Additionally, accumulated GHG emissions decreased by 13.49% due to the improvement of the fuel quality for the vehicles that mainly consume liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas, and electricity. View Full-Text
Keywords: sustainable energy; alternative fuels; energy forecast; energy policies; road transport sector; Ecuador sustainable energy; alternative fuels; energy forecast; energy policies; road transport sector; Ecuador
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Rivera-González, L.; Bolonio, D.; Mazadiego, L.F.; Naranjo-Silva, S.; Escobar-Segovia, K. Long-Term Forecast of Energy and Fuels Demand Towards a Sustainable Road Transport Sector in Ecuador (2016–2035): A LEAP Model Application. Sustainability 2020, 12, 472.

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