Globalization, Country Risks, and Trade in Tourism Services: Evidence from China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Methodology
4. Data Specification
5. Empirical Results
5.1. Unit Root Test and ARDL Bounds Tests
5.2. Estimation of the ARDL Models
5.3. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ Tests of Stability
6. Discussion and Implication
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | Obs | Mean | Std. Dev. | Min | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
LnTSEX | 32 | 3.40 | 0.28 | 2.98 | 3.90 |
LnTSIM | 32 | 3.15 | 0.51 | 1.66 | 4.05 |
LnTSTB | 32 | 0.25 | 0.70 | −1.02 | 1.83 |
LnOG | 32 | 3.84 | 0.32 | 3.20 | 4.13 |
LnEG | 32 | 3.77 | 0.18 | 3.33 | 3.99 |
LnSG | 32 | 3.45 | 0.65 | 2.18 | 4.01 |
LnPG | 32 | 4.20 | 0.26 | 3.70 | 4.44 |
LnCR | 32 | 4.28 | 0.09 | 4.05 | 4.39 |
LnPR | 32 | 4.17 | 0.07 | 4.03 | 4.32 |
LnGDP | 32 | 7.48 | 0.80 | 6.18 | 8.78 |
LnREER | 32 | 4.28 | 0.09 | 4.05 | 4.39 |
LnTSEX | LnTSIM | LnTSTB | LnOG | LnEG | LnSG | LnPG | LnGDP | LnREER | LnCR | LnPR | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LnTSEX | 1.000 | ||||||||||
LnTSIM | −0.533 *** (0.002) | 1.000 | |||||||||
LnTSTB | 0.784 *** (0.000) | −0.943 *** (0.000) | 1.000 | ||||||||
LnOG | −0.408 ** (0.021) | 0.828 *** (0.000) | −0.767 *** (0.000) | 1.000 | |||||||
LnEG | −0.342 * (0.056) | 0.832 *** (0.0000) | −0.744 *** (0.000) | 0.975 *** (0.000) | 1.0000 | ||||||
LnSG | −0.450 *** (0.0097) | 0.822 *** (0.000) | −0.780 *** (0.000) | 0.996 *** (0.000) | 0.961 *** (0.000) | 1.000 | |||||
LnPG | −0.343 * (0.055) | 0.796 *** (0.000) | −0.719 *** (0.000) | 0.986 *** (0.000) | 0.950 *** (0.000) | 0.975 *** (0.000) | 1.000 | ||||
LnGDP | −0.405 ** (0.021) | 0.809 *** (0.000) | −0.753 *** (0.000) | 0.912 *** (0.000) | 0.882 *** (0.000) | 0.900 *** (0.000) | 0.891 *** (0.000) | 1.000 | |||
LnREER | −0.210 (0.248) | −0.334 * (0.061) | 0.163 (0.373) | −0.484 *** (0.005) | −0.542 *** (0.001) | −0.466 *** (0.007) | −0.521 *** (0.002) | −0.191 (0.294) | 1.000 | ||
LnCR | −0.197 (0.280) | 0.607 *** (0.000) | −0.522 *** (0.002) | 0.747 *** (0.000) | 0.696 *** (0.000) | 0.735 *** (0.000) | 0.758 *** (0.000) | 0.657 *** (0.000) | −0.328 * (0.067) | 1.000 | |
LnPR | 0.425 ** (0.015) | −0.152 (0.406) | 0.278 (0.123) | −0.020 (0.915) | −0.028 (0.881) | −0.040 (0.829) | 0.029 (0.877) | −0.189 (0.302) | −0.322 * (0.072) | 0.550 *** (0.001) | 1.000 |
Variables | ADF Test | PP Test | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Model with Constant | Model with Constant and Trend | Model with Constant | Model with Constant and Trend | |
Variables in level | ||||
LnTSEX | −2.11 (0) | −2.47 (0) | −2.21 | −2.47 |
LnTSIM | −0.95 (3) | −1.92 (3) | −2.75 * | −3.90 ** |
LnTSTB | −1.87 (0) | −2.48 (1) | −2.00 | −2.70 |
LnOG | −2.47 (0) | −0.89 (0) | −3.26 ** | −0.44 |
LnEG | −3.62 ** (3) | −1.79 (3) | −5.66 *** | −2.76 |
LnSG | −2.07 (0) | −1.03 (0) | −2.49 | −0.77 |
LnPG | −1.88 (0) | −1.25 (0) | −2.07 | −1.23 |
LnCR | −1.82 (0) | −2.50 (0) | −1.76 | −2.56 |
LnPR | −2.22 (0) | −2.25 (0) | −2.29 | −2.31 |
LnGDP | 0.38 (4) | −4.69 *** (3) | −0.05 | −1.63 |
LnREER | −3.46 ** (0) | −2.86 (0) | −3.41 ** | −3.98 ** |
Variables in difference | ||||
DLnTSEX | −5.46 *** (0) | −5.40 *** (0) | −5.48 *** | −5.41 *** |
DLnTSIM | −5.10 *** (2) | −4.96 *** (2) | −9.72 *** | −8.90 *** |
DLnTSTB | −5.07 *** (0) | −4.97 *** (0) | −5.34 *** | −5.23 *** |
DLnOG | −4.92 *** (0) | −6.20 *** (4) | −4.92 *** | −9.12 *** |
DLnEG | −4.57 *** (1) | −5.36 *** (2) | −4.74 *** | −6.76 *** |
DLnSG | −5.26 *** (0) | −4.72 *** (4) | −5.26 *** | −7.64 *** |
DLnPG | −4.83 *** (0) | −5.55 *** (4) | −4.82 *** | −5.92 *** |
DLnCR | −4.12 *** (2) | −4.14 ** (2) | −8.10 *** | −9.00 *** |
DLnPR | −5.74 *** (0) | −4.14 ** (2) | −6.47 *** | −7.22 *** |
DLnGDP | −3.58 ** (1) | −3.45 * (1) | −2.92 * | −2.88 |
DLnREER | −4.30 *** (0) | −5.04 *** (0) | −4.22 *** | −7.90 *** |
Estimated Model | F-Statistic | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
OG | EG | SG | PG | ||
LnTSEXt = f (LnGLOBt, LnCRt, LnGDPt, LnREERt) | 4.80 *** | 7.96 *** | 3.97 ** | 7.52 *** | |
LnTSEXt = f (LnGLOBt, LnPRt, LnGDPt, LnREERt) | 6.37 *** | 7.68 *** | 3.78 ** | 4.66 *** | |
LnTSIMt = f (LnGLOBt, LnCRt, LnGDPt, LnREERt) | 12.69 *** | 12.98 *** | 6.46 *** | 4.35 ** | |
LnTSIMt = f (LnGLOBt, LnPRt, LnGDPt, LnREERt,) | 5.63 *** | 16.23 *** | 10.08 *** | 7.12 *** | |
LnTSTBt = f (LnGLOBt, LnCRt, LnGDPt, LnREERt) | 3.81 ** | 4.49 *** | 3.88 ** | 6.89 *** | |
LnTSTBt = f (LnGLOBt, LnPRt, LnGDPt, LnREERt,) | 4.58 *** | 7.69 *** | 3.69 ** | 4.49 *** | |
LnTSEXt = f (LnGLOB, LnGLOBt*LnCRt, LnGDPt, LnREERt) | 3.90 ** | 9.17 *** | 23.36 *** | 3.68 ** | |
LnTSEXt = f (LnGLOB, LnGLOBt*LnPRt, LnGDPt, LnREERt) | 5.02 *** | 3.35 ** | 4.77 *** | 4.55 *** | |
LnTSIMt = f (LnGLOBt, LnGLOBt*LnCRt, LnGDPt, LnREERt) | 12.82 *** | 13.41 *** | 8.19 *** | 5.25 *** | |
LnTSIMt = f (LnGLOBt, LnGLOBt*LnPRt, LnGDPt, LnREERt) | 15.69 *** | 4.01 ** | 11.81 *** | 7.59 *** | |
LnTSTBt = f (LnGLOBt, LnGLOBt*LnCRt, LnGDPt, LnREERt) | 4.16 ** | 6.67 *** | 4.04 ** | 7.67 *** | |
LnTSTBt = f (LnGLOBt, LnGLOBt*LnPRt, LnGDPt, LnREERt) | 3.39 * | 7.19 *** | 3.64 ** | 6.29 *** | |
Critical value | |||||
10% | 5% | 1% | |||
I(0) | I(1) | I(0) | I(1) | I(0) | I(1) |
2.20 | 3.09 | 2.56 | 3.49 | 3.29 | 4.37 |
Globalization Variables | Overall Globalization | Economic Globalization | Social Globalization | Political Globalization | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panel A: Consider composite risk in the models | ||||||||
LnGLOB | −1.95 *** (0.58) | −8.04 ** (2.29) | −0.95 (0.93) | 2.97 ** (1.32) | −0.89 *** (0.26) | −5.90 *** (0.78) | −2.60 ** (0.96) | −5.15 * (2.14) |
LnCR | −0.23 (0.97) | −3.29 *** (0.95) | −0.25 (1.20) | −3.10 *** (0.87) | ||||
LnGLOB*LnCR | 0.92 * (0.37) | −0.89 *** (0.20) | 1.04 *** (0.16) | 0.06 (0.31) | ||||
LnGDP | 0.58 *** (0.16) | 0.98 *** (0.18) | 0.13 (0.14) | 0.10 (0.12) | 0.56 *** (0.13) | 0.63 *** (0.04) | 0.91 *** (0.29) | 1.32 ** (0.29) |
LnREER | −1.40 ** (0.49) | −1.82 ** (0.50) | −0.83 * (0.46) | −0.72 * (0.34) | −2.13 *** (0.40) | −1.05 *** (0.16) | −2.73 *** (0.87) | −3.81 ** (0.89) |
Constant | 13.37 *** (3.53) | 20.13 *** (3.70) | 22.71 *** (3.61) | 7.91 ** (3.12) | 13.08 ** (5.52) | 8.33 *** (0.76) | 32.72 *** (6.01) | 31.55 *** (6.40) |
Panel B: Consider political risk in the models | ||||||||
LnGLOB | −2.41 *** (0.31) | −5.23 *** (1.10) | −3.76 *** (1.02) | 0.36 (1.21) | −1.01 (0.55) | −4.75 ** (1.31) | −4.82 *** (0.86) | −5.12 *** (1.24) |
LnPR | 0.69 (0.61) | 2.25 (1.51) | 3.04 (2.17) | −1.86 (1.23) | ||||
LnGLOB*LnPR | 0.54 ** (0.21) | −0.61 ** (0.25) | 0.82 ** (0.28) | 0.29 (0.22) | ||||
LnGDP | 0.74 *** (0.11) | 0.86 *** (0.13) | 0.44 (0.25) | 0.09 (0.16) | 0.28 (0.50) | 0.68 *** (0.13) | 1.29 *** (0.27) | 1.09 *** (0.27) |
LnREER | −1.64 *** (0.34) | −1.25 ** (0.45) | −0.29 (0.50) | −1.25 ** (0.53) | 0.77 (1.89) | −1.06 ** (0.38) | −4.34 *** (0.89) | −2.62 *** (0.66) |
Constant | 11.36 *** (3.22) | 13.95 *** (2.48) | 5.72 (4.70) | 15.68 *** (4.05) | −11.58 (10.13) | 7.97 *** (1.61) | 41.28 *** (8.80) | 23.61 *** (4.46) |
Variables | Overall Globalization | Economic Globalization | Social Globalization | Political Globalization | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARDL (3,2,3,3,2) | ARDL (3,3,4,4,4) | ARDL (3,3,3,3,2) | ARDL (3,1,3,3,2) | ARDL (1,0,3,0,3) | ARDL (5,3,3,3,3) | ARDL (1,0,2,3,0) | ARDL (4,4,3,4,4) | |
D(LnGLOB)t | −0.46 (0.65) | −11.64 *** (1.91) | −0.26 (0.53) | 2.32 ** (0.77) | −3.88 *** (0.54) | −5.78 ** (1.35) | ||
D(LnGLOB)t−1 | 2.95 *** (0.89) | 8.86 *** (1.93) | 0.567 (0.51) | 3.34 *** (0.57) | 8.70 ** (2.18) | |||
D(LnGLOB)t−2 | 7.79 *** (1.51) | −2.40 *** (0.52) | 4.67 *** (0.43) | 2.95 * (1.24) | ||||
D(LnGLOB)t−3 | 8.58 *** (1.49) | |||||||
D(LnCR)t | 0.50 (0.69) | −2.26 *** (0.60) | −1.09 * (0.59) | −0.45 (0.59) | ||||
D(LnCR)t−1 | 1.38 * (0.74) | 0.57 (0.57) | 0.52 (0.58) | 3.88 *** (0.76) | ||||
D(LnCR)t−2 | −1.67 ** (0.70) | −2.17 *** (0.58) | −2.13 *** (0.65) | |||||
D(LnGLOB*LnCR)t | 1.49 *** (0.31) | −0.60 *** (0.09) | 0.60 *** (0.12) | 0.46 (0.27) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnCR)t−1 | −0.26 (0.21) | 0.10 (0.09) | −0.35 ** (0.11) | −0.67 * (0.29) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnCR)t−2 | −1.35 *** (0.23) | −0.60 *** (0.09) | −0.98 *** (0.08) | 0.44 (0.29) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnCR)t−3 | 0.37 ** (0.10) | |||||||
ECT(−1) | −1.97 *** (0.30) | −2.92 *** (0.43) | −1.45 *** (0.17) | −1.41 *** (0.16) | −1.00 *** (0.180) | −2.68 *** (0.16) | −0.97 *** (0.13) | −2.37 *** (0.34) |
Variables | Overall Globalization | Economic Globalization | Social Globalization | Political Globalization | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARDL (3,2,3,3,2) | ARDL (3,3,4,4,4) | ARDL (3,4,3,4,1) | ARDL (3,0,3,3,2) | ARDL (3,4,4,1,4) | ARDL (3,3,3,4,4) | ARDL (1,3,2,3,2) | ARDL (1,1,2,0,0) | |
D(LnGLOB)t | −0.85 (0.56) | −4.80 *** (0.83) | −3.09 *** (0.64) | −1.68 *** (0.25) | −1.93 ** (0.72) | −3.23 *** (0.64) | −2.13 *** (0.62) | |
D(LnGLOB)t−1 | 4.19 *** (0.84) | 4.50 ** (1.14) | 4.91 *** (0.75) | 2.52 ** (0.93) | 1.79 ** (0.63) | |||
D(LnGLOB)t−2 | 4.07 *** (0.85) | −2.52 *** (0.52) | 1.80 ** (0.83) | |||||
D(LnGLOB)t−3 | 2.80 *** (0.64) | |||||||
D(LnPR)t | 0.76 (0.49) | 1.12 ** (0.48) | −0.12 (0.56) | −2.17 ** (0.93) | ||||
D(LnPR)t−1 | 0.42 (0.50) | −2.45 *** (0.60) | 1.66 ** (0.51) | 2.44 *** (0.58) | ||||
D(LnPR)t−2 | −2.19 *** (0.63) | −1.67 *** (0.49) | −1.73 ** (0.56) | |||||
D(LnPR)t−3 | 1.88 *** (0.44) | |||||||
D(LnGLOB*LnPR)t | 0.33 (0.17) | −0.32 * (0.15) | −0.05 (0.16) | 0.17 (0.11) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnPR)t−1 | −0.02 (0.12) | 0.16 (0.12) | −0.44 * (0.19) | 0.27 *** (0.08) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnPR)t−2 | −0.68 *** (0.14) | −0.47 *** (0.13) | −1.17 *** (0.20) | |||||
D(LnGLOB*LnPR)t−3 | 0.30 ** (0.09) | |||||||
ECT(−1) | −2.30 *** (0.31) | −2.32 *** (0.39) | −1.45 *** (0.17) | −1.25 *** (0.24) | −1.01 *** (0.16) | −2.25 *** (0.31) | −1.24 *** (0.20) | −0.75 *** (0.13) |
Globalization Variables | Overall Globalization | Economic Globalization | Social Globalization | Political Globalization | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panel A: Consider composite risk in the models | ||||||||
LnGLOB | 4.46 ** (0.97) | 9.24 ** (2.02) | 5.47 *** (0.93) | 11.05 ** (1.94) | −2.02 (1.59) | 5.29 * (2.33) | 4.17 *** (0.85) | 6.33 *** (1.10) |
LnCR | −5.70 ** (1.48) | −5.29 ** (1.36) | 12.10 * (6.72) | −1.78 * (0.80) | ||||
LnGLOB*LnCR | −1.27 ** (0.30) | −1.35 ** (0.31) | −0.97 (0.46) | −0.44 ** (0.16) | ||||
LnGDP | −0.60 * (0.23) | −0.47 * (0.20) | −0.01 (0.14) | 0.02 (0.13) | 1.04 (0.78) | −0.09 (0.19) | −0.71 ** (0.24) | −0.80 *** (0.18) |
LnREER | 0.98 (0.51) | 0.80 (0.46) | −0.33 (0.59) | −0.46 (0.52) | 0.61 (1.55) | 0.28 (0.55) | 1.92 ** (0.70) | 2.22 *** (0.55) |
Constant | 10.62 * (3.71) | −11.21 * (3.92) | 7.81 (4.83) | −13.58 ** (4.01) | −49.06 * (24.34) | −0.80 (3.03) | −9.75 * (4.62) | −19.25 *** (3.85) |
Panel B: Consider political risk in the models | ||||||||
LnGLOB | 3.38 ** (1.24) | 4.52 ** (1.19) | 2.21 * (0.91) | −2.93 (2.67) | 0.66 *** (0.15) | 3.38 ** (0.90) | 3.76 *** (0.37) | 5.82 *** (0.59) |
LnPR | −3.30 (2.27) | −0.81 (2.45) | −2.21 * (0.92) | −2.22 *** (0.54) | ||||
LnGLOB*LnPR | −0.63 ** (0.20) | 0.45 (0.45) | −0.65 ** (0.19) | −0.51 *** (0.12) | ||||
LnGDP | −0.10 (0.43) | −0.19 (0.18) | 0.002 (0.184) | 0.71 * (0.34) | 0.04 (0.11) | 0.003 (0.14) | −0.80 *** (0.11) | −0.79 *** (0.11) |
LnREER | 1.40 (1.48) | −0.14 (0.28) | 0.55 (1.14) | −1.01 (1.05) | −0.47 (0.27) | −0.54 * (0.23) | 1.81 *** (0.38) | 1.79 *** (0.37) |
Constant | −2.63 (12.09) | −1.59 (1.80) | −3.82 (13.23) | 7.67 (8.83) | 12.46 ** (3.57) | 3.77 ** (1.16) | −5.34 (3.77) | −14.38 *** (2.45) |
Variables | Overall Globalization | Economic Globalization | Social Globalization | Political Globalization | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARDL (4,4,4,4,4) | ARDL (4,4,4,4,4) | ARDL (4,4,4,4,4) | ARDL (4,4,4,4,4) | ARDL (1,0,3,2,0) | ARDL (4,4,4,4,3) | ARDL (3,3,3,3,3) | ARDL (2,3,3,3,3) | |
D(LnGLOB)t | 2.02 ** (0.29) | 2.80 ** (0.64) | 0.38 (0.26) | 2.83 ** (0.73) | −1.29 (0.76) | 0.52 (0.57) | −5.91 *** (1.29) | |
D(LnGLOB)t−1 | −4.58 *** (0.35) | −12.92 *** (0.84) | −6.81 *** (0.55) | −13.29 *** (0.90) | −9.53 *** (0.88) | −6.68 *** (1.28) | −4.26 ** (1.41) | |
D(LnGLOB)t−2 | −2.32 *** (0.34) | −9.90 *** (0.73) | −3.97 *** (0.38) | −11.47 *** (0.68) | −8.13 *** (0.79) | −3.17 ** (1.14) | ||
D(LnGLOB)t−3 | −2.15 *** (0.32) | −5.18 *** (0.58) | −3.13 *** (0.30) | −8.65 *** (0.75) | −3.58 *** (0.63) | |||
D(LnCR)t | −0.66 (0.41) | −1.38 * (0.47) | 4.15 *** (0.63) | −1.05 (1.15) | ||||
D(LnCR)t−1 | 7.92 *** (0.52) | 5.45 *** (0.38) | 1.09 ** (0.41) | −0.87 (0.72) | ||||
D(LnCR)t−2 | 7.38 *** (0.47) | 6.69 *** (0.46) | 1.70 *** (0.46) | 1.30 * (0.64) | ||||
D(LnCR)t−3 | 2.71 *** (0.33) | 4.61 *** (0.44) | ||||||
D(LnGLOB*LnCR)t | −0.27 * (0.11) | −0.53 ** (0.13) | 0.30 (0.16) | −0.38 (0.26) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnCR)t−1 | 1.90 *** (0.13) | 1.38 *** (0.10) | 1.87 *** (0.18) | −0.31 * (0.16) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnCR)t−2 | 1.79 *** (0.12) | 1.72 *** (0.12) | 1.77 *** (0.17) | 0.29 * (0.14) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnCR)t−3 | 0.74 *** (0.09) | 1.27 *** (0.12) | 0.77 *** (0.14) | |||||
ECT(−1) | −1.63 *** (0.11) | −1.84 *** (0.13) | −1.38 *** (0.10) | −1.54 *** (0.11) | −0.28 *** (0.04) | −1.57 *** (0.15) | −1.76 *** (0.28) | −1.80 *** (0.26) |
Variables | Overall Globalization | Economic Globalization | Social Globalization | Political Globalization | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARDL (3,3,4,4,4) | ARDL (4,4,4,4,3) | ARDL (4,4,4,4,3) | ARDL (3,0,2,2,2) | ARDL (4,3,4,4,3) | ARDL (4,4,4,4,3) | ARDL (1,3,3,3,2) | ARDL (1,3,3,3,2) | |
D(LnGLOB)t | 2.82 *** (0.51) | 1.64 ** (0.44) | 0.68 ** (0.23) | 0.36 ** (0.12) | 0.27 (0.48) | −0.42 (0.43) | 2.29 *** (0.65) | |
D(LnGLOB)t−1 | 2.04 *** (0.42) | −7.18 *** (0.49) | 0.32 (0.25) | −0.36 ** (0.11) | −6.02 *** (0.52) | −7.60 *** (1.11) | −7.44 *** (1.12) | |
D(LnGLOB)t−2 | 2.19 *** (0.50) | −5.54 *** (0.53) | −1.93 *** (0.27) | 0.28* (0.11) | −5.94 *** (0.57) | −1.80 ** (0.74) | −3.44 *** (1.02) | |
D(LnGLOB)t−3 | −3.64 *** (0.39) | −1.16 ** (0.26) | ||||||
D(LnPR)t | 3.01 *** (0.64) | 3.95 *** (0.30) | 0.63 (0.38) | −2.87 *** (0.54) | ||||
D(LnPR)t−1 | 5.34 *** (0.60) | 5.35 *** (0.37) | 4.33 *** (0.41) | 0.03 (0.38) | ||||
D(LnPR)t−2 | 3.94 *** (0.49) | 4.45 *** (0.35) | 5.11 *** (0.51) | 1.88 *** (0.51) | ||||
D(LnPR)t−3 | 1.13 ** (0.36) | 1.28 *** (0.20) | 2.51 *** (0.34) | |||||
D(LnGLOB*LnPR)t | −0.08 (0.09) | 0.50 *** (0.12) | 0.01 (0.10) | −0.66 *** (0.20) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnPR)t−1 | 1.28 *** (0.10) | 0.19 * (0.10) | 1.27 *** (0.11) | 0.001 (0.09) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnPR)t−2 | 1.32 *** (0.10) | 1.44 *** (0.13) | 0.41 *** (0.11) | |||||
D(LnGLOB*LnPR)t−3 | 0.59 *** (0.07) | 0.73 *** (0.09) | ||||||
ECT(−1) | −0.62 *** (0.08) | −1.97 *** (0.14) | −1.40 *** (0.09) | −0.59 *** (0.10) | −1.63 *** (0.15) | −1.99 *** (0.16) | −1.88 *** (0.24) | −1.85 *** (0.23) |
Globalization Variables | Overall Globalization | Economic Globalization | Social Globalization | Political Globalization | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Panel A: Consider composite risk in the models | ||||||||
LnGLOB | −0.01 (2.04) | −26.25 *** (5.93) | 8.16 (5.08) | 19.07 ** (8.04) | 2.93 (2.11) | −13.76 * (5.74) | −8.05 *** (1.75) | −6.54 ** (2.25) |
LnCR | −3.23 (3.59) | −14.09 *** (4.43) | −16.75 ** (7.77) | −1.33 (1.82) | ||||
LnGLOB*LnCR | 3.50 ** (0.90) | −2.96 ** (1.01) | 2.50 * (1.14) | −0.15 (0.30) | ||||
LnGDP | −0.39 (0.57) | 1.98 ** (0.47) | −1.08 (0.69) | −1.72 ** (0.79) | −1.50 (1.10) | 0.68 (0.42) | 1.78 ** (0.47) | 1.62 *** (0.42) |
LnREER | 0.77 (1.93) | −2.59 ** (0.99) | 0.36 (2.03) | 2.70 (1.78) | 1.88 (2.76) | −1.02 (1.30) | −5.63 ** (1.44) | −4.98 *** (1.31) |
Constant | 11.30 (14.94) | 41.22 *** (9.19) | 32.87 * (16.13) | −27.26 (17.38) | 58.98 ** (23.39) | 10.14 (6.77) | 51.21 *** (8.82) | 40.05 *** (8.91) |
Panel B: Consider political risk in the models | ||||||||
LnGLOB | −5.15 *** (1.01) | −11.07 ** (2.22) | −2.73 * (1.19) | 4.92 *** (1.37) | −1.92 ** (0.59) | −0.39 (2.27) | −8.62 ** (2.02) | −8.69 *** (1.50) |
LnPR | 5.04 ** (1.96) | −3.05 (1.97) | 6.18 * (3.17) | −1.20 (2.36) | ||||
LnGLOB*LnPR | 1.36 ** (0.39) | −1.45 *** (0.22) | −0.09 (0.47) | 0.06 (0.30) | ||||
LnGDP | 0.80 * (0.36) | 1.26 ** (0.32) | −0.49 (0.28) | −0.89 *** (0.18) | 0.39 (0.44) | 0.08 (0.41) | 1.71 * (0.64) | 2.04 *** (0.29) |
LnREER | −0.12 (1.04) | −0.98 (0.62) | −0.14 (0.72) | 0.21 (0.43) | 1.16 (1.21) | 0.58 (1.14) | −5.35 * (1.98) | −6.14 *** (0.96) |
Constant | −7.05 (8.86) | 15.45 ** (3.36) | 25.40 *** (7.23) | 7.60 ** (2.98) | −27.72 * (13.84) | −2.29 (5.00) | 52.04 ** (17.37) | 47.88 *** (6.33) |
Variables | Overall Globalization | Economic Globalization | Social Globalization | Political Globalization | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARDL (4,0,3,3,2) | ARDL (3,3,4,4,4) | ARDL (1,3,3,3,3) | ARDL (1,1,3,4,0) | ARDL (1,1,3,3,1) | ARDL (3,3,3,4,4) | ARDL (3,4,4,3,4) | ARDL (3,3,3,3,3) | |
D(LnGLOB)t | −21.23 *** (3.38) | 1.81* (0.94) | 5.11 *** (1.20) | 0.42 (0.42) | −4.41 * (1.83) | −4.99 *** (0.91) | −1.41 (1.50) | |
D(LnGLOB)t−1 | 18.43 *** (2.80) | −3.89 *** (0.90) | 6.66 ** (1.84) | 5.49 *** (1.14) | 2.74 * (1.49) | |||
D(LnGLOB)t−2 | 15.59 *** (2.31) | −2.98 ** (0.99) | 12.35 *** (1.89) | 6.04 *** (1.20) | 7.53 *** (1.92) | |||
D(LnGLOB)t−3 | 1.53 (0.98) | |||||||
D(LnCR)t | −2.10 * (1.09) | −5.62 *** (1.05) | −3.82 *** (1.10) | −4.31 ** (1.34) | ||||
D(LnCR)t−1 | 1.74 (1.21) | 1.29 (1.08) | 2.20 * (1.14) | 2.70 * (1.21) | ||||
D(LnCR)t−2 | −2.67 ** (1.11) | −2.91 ** (0.98) | −2.71 *** (0.81) | −3.11 ** (1.04) | ||||
D(LnCR)t−3 | −2.01 * (0.89) | |||||||
D(LnGLOB*LnCR)t | 2.04 *** (0.44) | −1.18 *** (0.23) | 0.37 (0.35) | −0.61 * (0.33) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnCR)t−1 | −1.52 *** (0.28) | −0.51 *** (0.14) | −0.99 ** (0.35) | 0.75 ** (0.23) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnCR)t−2 | −2.50 *** (0.32) | −1.18 *** (0.16) | −2.70 *** (0.40) | −0.74 *** (0.22) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnCR)t−3 | 0.96 *** (0.16) | |||||||
ECT(−1) | −0.86 *** (0.15) | −1.88 *** (0.27) | −0.56 *** (0.09) | −0.47 *** (0.06) | −0.46 *** (0.08) | −1.42 *** (0.21) | −1.65 *** (0.18) | −1.42 *** (0.17) |
Variables | Overall Globalization | Economic Globalization | Social Globalization | Political Globalization | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARDL (3,2,3,4,4) | ARDL (4,4,4,4,4) | ARDL (4,3,4,4,0) | ARDL (4,0,4,4,0) | ARDL (3,2,3,4,4) | ARDL (3,0,2,3,1) | ARDL (4,4,4,3,4) | ARDL (1,3,3,3,2) | |
D(LnGLOB)t | −5.73 *** (0.98) | −9.25 *** (1.51) | −1.25 (0.88) | −2.19 *** (0.48) | −6.78 *** (1.22) | −2.48 ** (1.10) | ||
D(LnGLOB)t−1 | 3.45 ** (1.06) | 16.38 *** (2.50) | 0.04 (0.74) | 1.01 ** (0.43) | 4.61 ** (1.35) | 4.96 *** (1.40) | ||
D(LnGLOB)t−2 | 15.90 *** (2.55) | −4.50 *** (0.86) | 4.11 ** (1.39) | 4.02 ** (1.45) | ||||
D(LnGLOB)t−3 | 7.52 ** (1.75) | 2.80 * (1.04) | ||||||
D(LnPR)t | −0.46 (0.97) | −5.35 *** (0.95) | −0.30 (1.06) | −2.59 * (1.08) | ||||
D(LnPR)t−1 | −1.67 * (0.82) | −3.54 *** (0.87) | −2.01 * (0.96) | 2.24 * (1.02) | ||||
D(LnPR)t−2 | −6.05 *** (1.00) | −5.54 *** (0.89) | −6.02 *** (1.17) | −2.50 * (1.03) | ||||
D(LnPR)t−3 | −1.41 ** (0.58) | −1.43 (0.90) | ||||||
D(LnGLOB*LnPR)t | 0.48 (0.26) | −1.77 *** (0.23) | 0.20 * (0.11) | −0.12 (0.21) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnPR)t−1 | −1.38 ** (0.30) | −0.59 *** (0.14) | 0.50 *** (0.11) | 0.57 *** (0.16) | ||||
D(LnGLOB*LnPR)t−2 | −1.85 *** (0.25) | −1.35 *** (0.18) | −0.36 * (0.18) | |||||
D(LnGLOB*LnPR)t−3 | −0.58 * (0.22) | −0.34 ** (0.13) | ||||||
ECT(−1) | −1.39 *** (0.20) | −2.97 *** (0.40) | −1.46 *** (0.17) | −1.47 *** (0.19) | −1.20 *** (0.20) | −0.99 *** (0.18) | −1.51 *** (0.19) | −1.36 *** (0.19) |
© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Zhang, W.; Chiu, Y.-B. Globalization, Country Risks, and Trade in Tourism Services: Evidence from China. Sustainability 2020, 12, 5869. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12145869
Zhang W, Chiu Y-B. Globalization, Country Risks, and Trade in Tourism Services: Evidence from China. Sustainability. 2020; 12(14):5869. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12145869
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Wenwen, and Yi-Bin Chiu. 2020. "Globalization, Country Risks, and Trade in Tourism Services: Evidence from China" Sustainability 12, no. 14: 5869. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12145869