Generation and Prediction of Construction and Demolition Waste Using Exponential Smoothing Method: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Building Area Estimation Method
2.2. Mann–Kendall Trend Test
2.3. Exponential Smoothing Prediction Method
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Analysis of C&D Waste Production
3.1.1. Trend Analysis
3.1.2. Spatial Distribution Characteristics Analysis
3.2. Prediction of C&D Waste Production
4. Conclusions and Policy Implications
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
- National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China (NBSC). China City Statistical Yearbook; China Statistical Yearbook Press: Beijing, China, 2002–2018.
- Cheng, J.L. The current situation and suggestions of construction waste resource utilization in China. Constr. Sci. Technol. 2014, 1, 9–12. [Google Scholar]
- Banias, G.; Achillas, C.; Vlachokostas, C.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Tarsenis, S. Assessing multiple criteria for the optimal location of a construction and demolition waste management facility. Build. Environ. 2010, 45, 2317–2326. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ding, Z.K.; Shi, M.J.; Lu, C.; Wu, Z.Z.; Chong, D.; Gong, W.Y. Predicting renovation waste generation based on grey system theory: A case study of Shenzhen. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4326. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Mihai, F.C. Construction and demolition waste in Romania: The route from illegal dumping to building materials. Sustainability 2019, 11, 3179. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Wang, Q.F.; Wang, S.N.; Shi, D. Grey Verhulst prediction model of construction waste output. J. Shenyang Jianzhu Univ. (Soc. Sci.) 2016, 18, 175–179. [Google Scholar]
- Zheng, L.N.; Wu, H.Y.; Zhang, H.; Duan, H.B.; Wang, J.Y.; Jiang, W.P.; Dong, B.Q.; Liu, G.; Zuo, J.; Song, Q.B. Characterizing the generation and flows of construction and demolition waste in China. Constr. Build. Mater. 2017, 136, 405–413. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Aoki-Suzuki, C.; Bengtsson, M.; Hotta, Y. International comparison and suggestions for capacity development in industrializing countries: Policy application of economy-wide Material Flow Accounting. J. Ind. Ecol. 2012, 16, 467–480. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Cochran, K.M.; Townsend, T.G. Estimating construction and demolition debris generation using a materials flow analysis approach. Waste Manag. 2010, 30, 2247–2254. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Zhu, D.F. Study on the Treatment of Urban Construction Waste; South China University of Technology: Guangzhou, China, 2010. [Google Scholar]
- Chen, T.J. Study on Construction Waste Reduction and Resource Utilization in Chengdu; Southwest Jiaotong University: Chengdu, China, 2014. [Google Scholar]
- Wang, H.N. Study on Resource Utilization of Construction Waste in Xi’an; Chang’an University: Xi’an, China, 2014. [Google Scholar]
- Sáez, P.V.; Porras-Amores, C.; Del, R.M.M. New quantification proposal for construction waste generation in new residential constructions. J. Clean. Prod. 2015, 102, 58–65. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhou, H.Q.; Zhang, Y.N.; Zhao, J. The construction waste production based on the Grey Prediction Model GM (1,1). J. Wuhan Univ. Technol. (Inf. Manag. Eng.) 2016, 38, 612–615. [Google Scholar]
- Sumathi, V.R.; Natesan, U.; Sarkar, C. GIS-based approach for optimized sitting of municipal solid waste landfill. Waste Manag. 2008, 28, 2146–2160. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Feo, G.D.; Gisi, S.D. Using MCDA and GIS for hazardous waste landfill siting considering land scarcity for waste disposal. Waste Manag. 2014, 34, 2225–2238. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Jensen, J.R.; Christensen, E.J. Solid and hazardous waste disposal site selection using digital geographic information system techniques. Sci. Total Environ. 1986, 56, 265–276. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Gallardo, A.; Carlos, M.; Peris, M.; Colomer, F.J. Methodology to design a municipal solid waste generation and composition map: A case study. Waste Manag. 2014, 34, 1920–1931. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Chalkias, C.; Lasaridi, K. Benefits from GIs based modelling for municipal solid waste management. Integr. Waste Manag. 2011, 1, 417–436. [Google Scholar]
- Keser, S.; Duzgun, S.; Aksoy, A. Application of spatial and non-spatial data analysis in determination of the factors that impact municipal solid waste generation rates in Turkey. Waste Manag. 2012, 32, 359–371. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ericsson, E.; Larsson, H.; Brundell-Freij, K. Optimizing route choice for lowest fuel consumption—Potential effects of a new driver support tool. Trans. Res. Part C 2006, 14, 369–383. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Anghinolfi, D.; Paolucci, M.; Robba, M.; Taramasso, A.C. A dynamic optimization model for solid waste recycling. Waste Manag. 2013, 33, 287–296. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Santos, L.; Coutinho-Rodrigues, J.; John, R. Implementing a multi-vehicle multi-route spatial decision support system for efficient trash collection in Portugal. Curr. Trans. Res. Part A 2008, 42, 922–934. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Zaman, A.U.; Lehmann, S. Urban growth and waste management optimization towards ‘zero waste city’. City Cult. Soc. 2011, 2, 177–187. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wu, H.Y.; Duan, H.B.; Zheng, L.N.; Wang, J.Y.; Niu, Y.N.; Zhang, G.M. Demolition waste generation and recycling potentials in a rapidly developing flagship megacity of South China: Prospective scenarios and implications. Constr. Build. Mater. 2016, 113, 1007–1016. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Gallardo, A.; Bovea, M.D.; Colomer, F.; Prades, M.; Carlos, M. Comparison of different collection systems for sorted household waste in Spain. Waste Manag. 2010, 30, 2430–2439. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wu, H.; Wang, J.; Duan, H.; Yang, L.O.; Huang, W.; Zuo, J. An innovative approach to managing demolition waste via GIS (geographic information system): A case study in Shenzhen city. Clean Prod. 2016, 112, 494–503. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Taylor, J. Multi-item sales forecasting with total and split exponential smoothing. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 2011, 62, 555–563. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Taylor, J. Short-term electricity demand forecasting using double seasonal exponential smoothing. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 2003, 54, 799–805. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Guan, P.; Wu, W.; Huang, D. Trends of reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China from 2007 to 2017: An exponential smoothing time series analysis. Environ. Health Prev. Med. 2018, 23, 2–7. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Raha, S.; Gayen, S.K. Simulation of meteorological drought using exponential smoothing models: A study on Bankura District, West Bengal, India. SN Appl. Sci. 2020, 2, 909. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Qian, L. Trend forecasting of rural residents’ income regional disparities in China: Based on second exponential smoothing and ARMA Model. J. Central Univ. Financ. Econ. 2014, 7, 78–82. [Google Scholar]
- Qin, M.; Yang, G.F.; Deng, M.J.; Zhang, W.Q.; Feng, B. Short-term traffic flow forecasting based on exponential smoothing and Kalman filter. J. Beihua Univ. (Nat. Sci.) 2015, 16, 814–817. [Google Scholar]
- Lee, D.; Kim, S.; Kim, S. Development of hybrid model for estimating construction waste for multifamily residential buildings using artificial neural networks and ant colony optimization. Sustainability 2016, 8, 870. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Shi, S.Y. Study on the Promotion Mechanism of Construction Waste Recycling in Chongqing; Chongqing University: Chongqing, China, 2013. [Google Scholar]
- Wang, Q.F.; Wang, S.N.; Li, X.F. Comparative and analysis of construction waste recycling policies at home and abroad. Constr. Econ. 2015, 36, 95–99. [Google Scholar]
- Zhao, W.; Ren, H.; Rotter, V.S. A system dynamics model for evaluating the alternative of type in construction and demolition waste recycling center–The case of Chongqing, China. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 2011, 55, 933–944. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mann, H.B. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 1945, 13, 245–259. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kendall, M.G. Rank Correlation Methods; Griffin: London, UK, 1975. [Google Scholar]
- Wei, F.Y. Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology; Meteorological Press: Beijing, China, 1999. [Google Scholar]
- Kang, S.Y.; Zhang, B.; Liu, J.F.; Yang, M.J. Analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation in Zhangye City using Mann-Kendall method. Resour. Sci. 2009, 31, 501–508. [Google Scholar]
- Sun, L. Research on Forecasting of Energy Supply and Demand and Development Policy of Rural Energy in Liaoyang City; Shenyang Agriculture University: Shenyang, China, 2013. [Google Scholar]
- Um, M.; Heo, J.; Markus, M.; Wuebbles, D.J. Performance evaluation of four statistical tests for trend and non-stationarity and assessment of observed and projected annual maximum precipitation series in major United States cities. Water Resour. Manag. 2018, 32, 913–933. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Jin, M. Analysis of flood element changes in Shenyang district hydrological station based on M-K Test Method in recent 53 years. Ground Water 2019, 41, 119–121. [Google Scholar]
- Zhao, J.; Liu, Q.X.; Lin, L.Q.; Qian, G.R.; Xiao, J.Z. Evolution and comparison of construction waste of large cities in China. J. Cent. South Univ. (Sci. Technol.) 2013, 44, 1297–1304. [Google Scholar]
Model Accuracy Level | Mean Square Error Ratio C | Small Error Probability P |
---|---|---|
Excellent | <0.35 | 0.95–1 |
Qualified | 0.35–0.5 | 0.8–0.95 |
Reluctantly | 0.5–0.65 | 0.7–0.8 |
Unqualified | >0.65 | <0.7 |
Year | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 18,143.6 | 21,085.0 | 24,175.0 | 29,355.6 | 30,260.7 | 39,620.6 | 45,538.2 | 50,271.4 | 53,568.2 | 59,785.5 | 68,826.2 | 76,259.1 | 85,817.5 | 97,022.4 | 105,729.7 | 103,218.3 | 106,764.4 | 113,372.0 |
Jinan | 2454.8 | 2849.5 | 2966.4 | 3932.2 | 3244.8 | 5057.6 | 5154.6 | 5820.9 | 6094.4 | 6510.7 | 6768.8 | 8222.7 | 9423.7 | 11,111.8 | 12,912.4 | 14,367.4 | 14,644.3 | 16,025.7 |
Qingdao | 2659.6 | 3291.5 | 4130.0 | 4648.0 | 6260.8 | 5847.4 | 6561.2 | 8130.7 | 8333.8 | 9066.7 | 10,250.8 | 10,208.1 | 11,881.2 | 13,299.1 | 15,392.8 | 15,732.7 | 18,416.0 | 19,455.9 |
Zibo | 1233.0 | 1639.7 | 1964.8 | 2583.5 | 1497.2 | 3723.3 | 5350.8 | 5271.4 | 4948.2 | 5583.7 | 6822.2 | 8071.7 | 9608.2 | 11,105.1 | 11,573.1 | 10,319.5 | 10,166.7 | 10,841.7 |
Zaozhuang | 739.2 | 760.1 | 829.0 | 959.1 | 846.4 | 1458.6 | 1660.5 | 1997.4 | 2038.4 | 2283.5 | 2498.0 | 2846.6 | 3236.8 | 4023.5 | 3815.0 | 3705.8 | 3503.2 | 4086.7 |
Dongying | 410.6 | 509.3 | 516.2 | 625.6 | 1590.0 | 960.1 | 1271.4 | 1245.7 | 1164.0 | 1262.1 | 1250.3 | 1299.3 | 1360.9 | 1505.2 | 1473.4 | 1292.5 | 1230.2 | 1058.5 |
Yantai | 1585.0 | 2035.0 | 2286.0 | 2801.9 | 3086.6 | 3691.8 | 4119.7 | 4541.8 | 4711.0 | 4947.4 | 6109.5 | 6018.7 | 6112.9 | 6490.6 | 6124.8 | 5663.8 | 5857.0 | 6113.8 |
Weifang | 1482.9 | 1829.1 | 2048.1 | 2520.6 | 2194.4 | 3425.0 | 4191.1 | 4624.0 | 5637.0 | 6970.8 | 8046.3 | 8812.1 | 9561.5 | 10,680.1 | 10,992.3 | 10,629.5 | 10,117.0 | 10,861.5 |
Jining | 1027.0 | 963.9 | 1329.5 | 1520.2 | 1571.0 | 2174.4 | 2014.5 | 2415.7 | 2679.5 | 3089.0 | 4059.5 | 4278.6 | 5242.3 | 6675.8 | 7785.1 | 7615.5 | 7754.9 | 6959.7 |
Taian | 1866.7 | 2025.7 | 2263.1 | 2149.1 | 1177.3 | 3067.1 | 3421.5 | 3715.0 | 4368.6 | 4842.7 | 5393.2 | 5736.9 | 5889.4 | 6005.1 | 5701.7 | 518.39 | 4624.7 | 4365.2 |
Weihai | 803.6 | 935.7 | 1176.3 | 1228.3 | 2497.6 | 1845.3 | 2103.9 | 2542.9 | 2757.1 | 2934.7 | 3232.4 | 3814.4 | 3721.8 | 3887.1 | 3806.3 | 3588.9 | 3803.0 | 3705.8 |
Rizhao | 304.0 | 417.4 | 470.8 | 565.0 | 722.7 | 1009.7 | 989.2 | 1082.7 | 1077.9 | 1233.5 | 1099.2 | 1433.1 | 1833.0 | 1986.1 | 2207.2 | 2247.8 | 2838.0 | 2860.8 |
Laiwu | 269.1 | 279.8 | 351.9 | 448.9 | 232.4 | 539.2 | 765.9 | 808.0 | 709.0 | 708.2 | 674.5 | 720.9 | 1613.9 | 820.4 | 765.4 | 741.0 | 694.9 | 714.0 |
Linyi | 1262.5 | 1377.4 | 1547.4 | 1767.4 | 137.54 | 2458.4 | 2852.7 | 3032.4 | 3446.4 | 3844.0 | 4993.9 | 5931.4 | 6725.5 | 8686.2 | 10,609.7 | 10,988.6 | 11,316.2 | 13,026.2 |
Dezhou | 496.0 | 604.1 | 530.7 | 717.4 | 1076.1 | 1028.1 | 1053.0 | 1140.8 | 1390.0 | 1764.0 | 1958.5 | 2206.3 | 2382.8 | 2691.5 | 2956.9 | 2731.3 | 3016.5 | 3539.3 |
Liaocheng | 552.0 | 599.3 | 747.3 | 1189.3 | 925.5 | 1121.5 | 1107.7 | 1159.5 | 116.17 | 1610.8 | 2157.1 | 2627.4 | 2958.9 | 3607.9 | 4882.4 | 3658.4 | 3788.3 | 4188.6 |
Binzhou | 627.0 | 599.6 | 650.8 | 807.7 | 958.2 | 971.5 | 1362.6 | 1190.5 | 1270.9 | 1180.5 | 1363.0 | 1812.2 | 1968.5 | 1853.0 | 1955.6 | 1849.0 | 1873.1 | 1979.5 |
Heze | 370.5 | 367.7 | 367.0 | 891.4 | 989.6 | 1241.6 | 1558.0 | 1551.9 | 1780.3 | 1953.4 | 2149.1 | 2218.7 | 2296.3 | 2594.0 | 2775.6 | 2902.7 | 3120.4 | 3588.9 |
City | Trend | p-Value | |
---|---|---|---|
Shandong Province | 15.24 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Jinan | 5.27 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Qingdao | 5.18 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Zibo | 4.64 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Zaozhuang | 5.00 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Dongying | 3.38 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Yantai | 4.73 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Weifang | 5.09 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Jining | 5.09 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Taian | 4.19 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Weihai | 4.55 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Rizhao | 5.09 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Laiwu | 3.11 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Linyi | 5.09 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Dezhou | 5.00 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Liaocheng | 4.73 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Binzhou | 4.37 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Heze | 5.00 | Rise significantly | <0.01 |
Different Periods | 2001–2005 | 2006–2010 | 2011–2015 |
---|---|---|---|
Change of construction and demolition waste production (1000 tons) | (+)18,535.6 | (+)23,288.0 | (+)26,959.2 |
Year | Estimated Value | Predicted Value | Absolute Error | Relative Error% |
---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | 18,143.6 | - | - | - |
2001 | 21,085.0 | 23,357.5 | 2272.5 | 10.78 |
2002 | 24,175.0 | 22,828.7 | −1346.3 | −5.57 |
2003 | 29,355.6 | 24,490.9 | −4864.7 | −16.57 |
2004 | 30,260.7 | 31,038.1 | 777.4 | 2.57 |
2005 | 39,620.6 | 40,898.4 | 1277.8 | 3.23 |
2006 | 45,538.2 | 36,366.0 | −9172.2 | −20.14 |
2007 | 50,271.4 | 57,655.4 | 7384.0 | 14.69 |
2008 | 53,568.2 | 62,909.7 | 9341.5 | 17.44 |
2009 | 59,785.5 | 64,902.9 | 5117.4 | 8.56 |
2010 | 68,826.2 | 64,646.2 | −4180.0 | −6.07 |
2011 | 76,259.1 | 74,446.1 | −1813.0 | −2.38 |
2012 | 85,817.5 | 89,913.8 | 4096.3 | 4.77 |
2013 | 97,022.4 | 97,161.5 | 139.1 | 0.14 |
2014 | 105,729.7 | 110,018.1 | 4288.4 | 4.06 |
2015 | 103,218.3 | 125,410.6 | 22,192.3 | 21.5 |
2016 | 106,764.4 | 131,497.5 | 24,733.1 | 23.17 |
2017 | 113,372.0 | 108,665.6 | −4706.4 | −4.15 |
Year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Predicted value | 114,123.3 | 117,972.5 | 121,821.7 | 125,670.9 | 129,520.0 | 133,369.2 | 137,218.4 | 141,067.6 |
© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Qiao, L.; Liu, D.; Yuan, X.; Wang, Q.; Ma, Q. Generation and Prediction of Construction and Demolition Waste Using Exponential Smoothing Method: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China. Sustainability 2020, 12, 5094. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12125094
Qiao L, Liu D, Yuan X, Wang Q, Ma Q. Generation and Prediction of Construction and Demolition Waste Using Exponential Smoothing Method: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China. Sustainability. 2020; 12(12):5094. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12125094
Chicago/Turabian StyleQiao, Liang, Doudou Liu, Xueliang Yuan, Qingsong Wang, and Qiao Ma. 2020. "Generation and Prediction of Construction and Demolition Waste Using Exponential Smoothing Method: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China" Sustainability 12, no. 12: 5094. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12125094