Analysis of the Driving Forces of Urban Expansion Based on a Modified Logistic Regression Model: A Case Study of Wuhan City, Central China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Field Strength Model
2.2. Modified Logistic Regression Model
2.3. Verification of the Regression Model
3. Study Area and Data Processing
3.1. Area Description
3.2. Data Sources and Preprocessing
3.3. Variable Selection and Spatial Quantification
3.3.1. Natural Environment Variables
3.3.2. Accessibility Variables
3.3.3. Policy-Oriented Variables
3.4. Data Sampling for Logistic Regression Analysis
4. Results
4.1. Model Application and Regression Results
4.2. ROC Curve Verification of Models
4.3. Kappa Coefficient Verification of Models
5. Discussion
5.1. Effects of Traffic System Development on Urban Expansion
5.2. Various Urbanization Levels and Urban Expansion
5.3. Drivers of Spatial Planning to Urban Expansion
5.4. Natural Environment and Urban Expansion
5.5. Other Potential Drivers of Urban Expansion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Land Use Type | 2006 | 2013 | 2006–2013 | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Area | % Total | Area | % Total | Variation | |
Cultivated land | 3659.72 | 42.82 | 3266.55 | 38.22 | −393.18 |
Forest | 887.88 | 10.39 | 975.54 | 11.41 | 87.66 |
Other agriculture land | 1062.80 | 12.43 | 1204.28 | 14.09 | 141.48 |
Urban construction land | 626.37 | 7.33 | 882.78 | 10.33 | 256.41 |
Rural construction land | 506.53 | 5.93 | 561.07 | 6.56 | 54.55 |
Other construction land | 262.58 | 3.07 | 345.90 | 4.05 | 83.33 |
Water area | 1371.57 | 16.05 | 1227.51 | 14.36 | −144.06 |
Unused land | 169.67 | 1.99 | 83.48 | 0.98 | −86.19 |
Type | Variables | Applicable Model | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Natural environment factors | Slope (x1) | Classical logistic regression model | Modified logistic regression model | |
Distance | from the main river (x2) | |||
from the ordinary river (x3) | ||||
from the lake (x4) | ||||
Accessibility factors | Distance | from the arterial road (x5) | ||
from the subarterial road (x6) | ||||
from the expressway (x7) | ||||
from the center of the city (x8) | ||||
from the center of the key developing town (x9) | ||||
from the center of the suburban center town (x10) | ||||
Policy-oriented factors | Location of the overall layout of urban space (x11) | |||
Degree of influence of the various grading townships (x12) |
Road Grade | Expressway | Arterial Road | Subarterial Road | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Travel speed (km/h) | 100 | 80 | 60 | 60 | 50 | 40 | 50 | 40 | 30 |
Travel cost (min) | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.25 |
Land Use Type | Traffic Land | Urban Construction Land | Rural Construction Land | Farmland | Water |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Travel speed (km/h) | 30 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 1 |
Travel cost (min) | 0.42 | 0.64 | 0.85 | 1.27 | 12.73 |
Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B | Wald | B | Wald | B | Wald | |
x1 | 0.111844 | 138.60 | 0.084403 | 79.34 | 0.086460 | 83.43 |
x2 | −0.000011 | 17.36 | −0.000004 | 2.20 | −0.000001 | 0.20 |
x3 | 0.000012 | 11.54 | 0.000010 | 8.10 | 0.000010 | 7.89 |
x4 | 0.000020 | 15.94 | 0.000014 | 7.19 | 0.000005 | 1.03 |
x5 | −0.000309 | 1563.77 | −0.000301 | 1461.24 | −0.000287 | 1324.53 |
x6 | −0.000145 | 220.85 | −0.000085 | 73.51 | −0.000061 | 37.02 |
x7 | 0.000041 | 55.02 | 0.000041 | 58.04 | 0.000047 | 74.58 |
x8 | −0.000072 | 1503.92 | −0.000029 | 142.62 | −0.000027 | 122.75 |
x9 | −0.000073 | 341.04 | −0.000085 | 442.89 | −0.000081 | 403.31 |
x10 | 0.000010 | 12.86 | −0.000007 | 5.74 | −0.000002 | 0.39 |
x11 | / | / | −1.194718 | 676.04 | −1.166769 | 640.45 |
x12 | / | / | / | / | 0.164021 | 160.73 |
Constant | 3.305632 | 1780.24 | 4.846721 | 2301.82 | 4.374762 | 1721.28 |
Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |
---|---|---|---|
Kappa coefficient | 0.338 | 0.346 | 0.356 |
2006 | 2013 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
R | R′ | R | R′ | |
City center townships | 45.69 | 43.38 | 60.97 | 40.42 |
Key developing townships | 9.85 | 43.20 | 16.25 | 49.76 |
Suburban center townships | 2.21 | 7.93 | 2.57 | 6.45 |
General townships | 1.12 | 5.50 | 0.98 | 3.37 |
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Luo, T.; Tan, R.; Kong, X.; Zhou, J. Analysis of the Driving Forces of Urban Expansion Based on a Modified Logistic Regression Model: A Case Study of Wuhan City, Central China. Sustainability 2019, 11, 2207. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082207
Luo T, Tan R, Kong X, Zhou J. Analysis of the Driving Forces of Urban Expansion Based on a Modified Logistic Regression Model: A Case Study of Wuhan City, Central China. Sustainability. 2019; 11(8):2207. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082207
Chicago/Turabian StyleLuo, Ti, Ronghui Tan, Xuesong Kong, and Jincheng Zhou. 2019. "Analysis of the Driving Forces of Urban Expansion Based on a Modified Logistic Regression Model: A Case Study of Wuhan City, Central China" Sustainability 11, no. 8: 2207. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11082207