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Simulation-Based Exceedance Probability Curves to Assess the Economic Impact of Storm Surge Inundations due to Climate Change: A Case Study in Ise Bay, Japan

1
School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
2
Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto 6110011, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2019, 11(4), 1090; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11041090
Received: 1 January 2019 / Revised: 15 February 2019 / Accepted: 15 February 2019 / Published: 19 February 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural Disasters and Economics)
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PDF [5142 KB, uploaded 19 February 2019]
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Abstract

Understanding storm surge inundation risk is essential for developing countermeasures and adaptation strategies for tackling climate change. Consistent assessment of storm surge inundation risk that links probability of hazard occurrence to distribution of economic consequence are scarce due to the lack of historical data and uncertainty of climate change, especially at local scales. This paper proposes a simulation-based method to construct exceedance probability (EP) curves for representing storm surge risk and identifying the economic impact of climate change in the coastal areas of Ise Bay, Japan. The region-specific exceedance probability curves show that risk could be different among different districts. The industry-specific exceedance probability curves show that manufacturing, transport and postal activities, electricity, gas, heat supply and water, and wholesale and retail trade are the most affected sectors in terms of property damage. Services also need to be of concern in terms of business interruption loss. Exceedance probability curves provide complete risk information and our simulation-based approach can contribute to a better understanding of storm surge risk, improve the quantitative assessment of the climate change-driven impacts on coastal areas, and identify vulnerable regions and industrial sectors in detail. View Full-Text
Keywords: exceedance probability curves; storm surge inundation; climate change; economic impact; Ise Bay exceedance probability curves; storm surge inundation; climate change; economic impact; Ise Bay
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Jiang, X.; Mori, N.; Tatano, H.; Yang, L. Simulation-Based Exceedance Probability Curves to Assess the Economic Impact of Storm Surge Inundations due to Climate Change: A Case Study in Ise Bay, Japan. Sustainability 2019, 11, 1090.

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