National Planning Strategies for Agro-based Industrial Development in Secondary Cities of Sindh Province, Pakistan

Abstract

The aim of this study was to critically investigate the planning policy loopholes in five-year (7^th and 8^th) plans of Pakistan to develop agricultural-based industrial sectors in secondary cities of the Sindh Province, Pakistan. The study had conducted key informant interviews from agro-based industrial sectors to diagnose the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of the 7^th and 8^th five-year plans. For that purpose, the study had conducted 30 key informant interviews by using the purposive sampling technique. The NVIVO software was used with content analysis method to get results of SWOT of 7^th five-year (1988–1993) and 8^th five-year (1993–1998) plans. The results revealed that high priority is given to the textile and sugar industries. However, there is an absence of planning policies for small and medium agricultural industries in secondary cities, fiscal reliance on central government, and reliance on foreign aid as weaknesses of the plans. Whereas the centralized planning system, political influence of federal government, weak agricultural infrastructure services in secondary cities, and cross-border war were the threats hampered in the execution of development plans. Considering these results, the study suggests development of planning policies in the five-year development plans to stimulate the agriculture industrial development in secondary cities and devolution of powers can help to achieve sustainable agricultural development.

1. Introduction

The agro-based industrial development is an undeniable fact that performs a dynamic role for the economic development of regions [1]. The rural population can get benefits from the agro-industries through employment and activities that are not related to farming such as packaging and transporting agricultural goods to warehouse and mills. The agro-based industries’ growth has positive effects on the socio-economic development of the urban and rural population, which will help towards nation building [2,3].

It is also known that urban hubs are fundamental for regional development [4,5,6]. Secondary cities especially play a key role in the economic growth of an area. The regional planners and policymakers are of the view that secondary cities can play the main role in bringing regional and rural economic and infrastructure development [7,8]. Secondary cities are holistically embedded in national and regional economic growth, which will generate jobs at the local, regional, and national levels [9]. “Secondary cities are the emerging engine of the rapid pace urbanization the world will experience in the forthcoming decades” [8].

Richardson (1977) argues that secondary cities are often higher order service centers for their surrounding rural and lagging hinterlands. He suggested that “the strategy of secondary city development attempts to strengthen urban-rural linkages via the development of agro-based industries and expansion in the production of agricultural inputs with respects to infrastructure” [10,11]. Vachal [12] also pointed out that “the role of secondary and small cities is very crucial for the government institutions and policy designers in crafting economic growth strategies for the agricultural regions”. Other researchers also suggested that developing sustainable and competitive agricultural industries growth in “secondary cities” can be vital for job creation and monetary opportunities to bring local and regional economic development [1,7,8,13].

The planning strategies and regional growth have a primary function in developing prosperity between urban and rural localities [8]. The central governments have an essential role to play in building a network of secondary cities. The central government invests for the advancement and diversification of trade diversification, the establishment of the large and small-scale industrial sectors, and provision of infrastructure and processing facilities for agricultural produce. The purpose is to create fruitful linkages with their rural hinterland [8,9].

Pakistan gets 20% of its GDP from the agriculture, forest, hunting, and fish farming (AFHF) sectors. Its economy depends on agricultural development, and this sector is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy. The AFHF sector engages 41% of the labor force of Pakistan and sustains almost 67% of the national population [14]. Wheat, cotton, and rice are the main crops of agricultural production in Pakistan, and industry relies heavily on them [15].

In Pakistan, Sindh is the most urbanized province, situated in the southeast region. Of the total population, 48.8 percent of the population of Sindh are living in urban areas [14]. Karachi and Hyderabad are two major metropolitan cities of the province. The remaining 148 urban areas of the province are secondary cities and towns. The left bank of the Indus River is the prosperous part, and most secondary cities are situated there. Agriculture is a main source of income for the rural population living near cities [15].

Arable land and water are the principal natural resources of Sindh, an agro-based province of Pakistan. Therefore, agriculture income is vital for the economic growth of the province [14]. Around 45% of the working population of Sindh is engaged in the agriculture sector. More than 85% of this 45% working population of the province works in the agriculture sector, and they are engaged in farming and agro-based industries [16,17].

The role of the Sindh province cannot be ignored when it comes to the economic growth of Pakistan. According to the Sindh Board of Investment (SBI), “about 33% of the national GDP is produced by Sindh. The province also has 54% textile, 45% sugar mills, and a third national capacity in large-scale manufacturing of Pakistan. Sindh province shares 70% of income tax and 62 % of sales tax in Pakistan” [18].

The Industries and Commerce Department, and the Government of Sindh describe that the province contains fourteen small industrial estates (SIE), only one processing zone, four industrial zones, and 17 Sindh industrial trading estates (SITE) [14]. However, 70 percent of these industries are fully functional at and near Karachi and Hyderabad cities. Karachi has four industrial zones, one export processing zone, and eight SITE areas, whereas Hyderabad has one SITE area and two SIE sites. These areas cater to the employment needs of both cities. The SITE and SIE are the only areas provided in Sukkur and Larkana, and one small industrial estate in Shikarpur and Kandhkot cities. Only 41 percent of industrial units of SITE and SIE of Sukkur, Larkana, Shikarpur, and Kandhkot (secondary cities) are functioning, which are rather insufficient in fulfilling the employment needs of the secondary cities of Sindh province [14].

Sindh has only two major cities; the remaining urbanizations are agro-based secondary cities. It is obvious that the agro-based industries, and especially the medium and small industrial units in the secondary and small urban settlements, should be developed. Such development would generate employment and improve consumption levels of the urban and rural poor [19]. However, the prevailing situation is in contrast with outlook and raises points in mind such as why governmental bodies are not focusing on the agro-industrial growth of secondary cities? Furthermore, if this trend continues, will secondary cities of the province cease to exist?

According to the European Institute of Urban Affairs (2012), secondary cities can be defined as “those cities outside the capital cities, whose economic and social performance is sufficiently important to affect the potential performance of the national and regional economy” [20,21]. Siddiqui (2011) had also suggested in his study that stable economic development in the agro-based sector can be a pre-requisite to attain sustainable growth for Pakistan and Sindh province. Other researchers also claim that secondary cities create strong internal economies by acting as a central hub for encouraging agricultural and trade sectors [7,12,22]. These cities serve as local market centers for surrounding rural areas by facilitating sales and supply of agricultural equipment, serve as agro-processing and stock centers for agriculture inputs and outputs, and provide non-farm employment through industrial growth to local and surrounding people [1,8,10].

Considering these factors, the main purpose of this study is to analyze and diagnose the planning strategies loopholes in 7^th five-year (1988–1993) and 8^th five-year (1993–1998) plans of Pakistan for the raising of agricultural-based industries in secondary cities of Sindh province.

Different researchers have tried to shed light on the importance of secondary cities with the same essence that they are an integral part of the development of different regions and countries such as primary cities. They play a vital role in bringing local, national, and global development [7,8,9,23,24,25,26,27,28]. Despite their increasing importance, secondary cities are still a “missing middle” [6,29]. However, from the Pakistan and Sindh province context, there is a research gap [19,22]. Therefore, research should be conducted to assess the importance of secondary cities in bringing national, regional, and local trade and industrial development to the country [19].

With the reviewed literature, researchers have observed that very few studies have incorporated the planning strategies of five-year plans of Pakistan, agricultural industrial development, and secondary cities; nor were the opinions of agro-based industrial experts taken in order to diagnose the planning strategies gaps in 7^th and 8^th five-years plans for agricultural industries in secondary cities in the Sindh province context. It may also be worthwhile to call attention to specific analytical issues that might be regarded as basic areas of interest of local and regional economies in the next few years.

The paper is further divided into four parts. The first part describes the methodology adopted for this study. The second part discusses results of the study through SWOT analysis and content analysis. The third part of this article is accomplished by results obtained from analysis, and the fourth part presents discussion and a subsequent conclusion. The last part of this study provides recommendation and limitations.

2. Methodology

This study seeks to diagnose gaps in the planning strategies of 7^th (1988–1993) and 8^th (1993–1998) five-year plans developed for the agricultural industrial growth in secondary cities, and the reasons and inducing factors behind that phenomena. To obtained facts and figures of the study, the exploratory study is considered a valuable research technique [30,31]. The nature of the study was exploratory, and therefore used qualitative research methodology with an inductive research approach [30,32]. The qualitative study builds a general focus of the inquiry, which was indicated to recognize exactly what one needs [33,34]. The study adopted the following research methodology for data collection and analysis.

3. Data Collection

For clarity, the researchers need to study the development plans by themselves [35,36]. Whereas to explore the planning strategies gaps in the five-year development plans, the study needs to take the opinion of the agro-based key informants working in the study area [35,36]. Therefore, considering these factors, we used two methods: key informant interviews and documents review for data collection.

Thirty formal interviews were taken from the Director General, Directors, Deputy Directors, Assistant Directors of Agriculture sector, and Chairman of SITE, SIE, and Chamber of Commerce by using the purposive sampling technique. Open-ended questions were asked to invite detailed reviews of key informant opinions regarding strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of 7^th and 8^th five-year development plans. The open-ended question format is easy for the people to give accurate responses and in-depth information about the subject [37,38]. A total of 10 similar questions were asked of every respondent. The purpose of the similar interview schedule was to give a similar understanding and freedom to every respondent and get a comprehensive view of the issue [39].

The list of officials was taken from Agriculture Department and Sindh Industrial Trading Corporation, Government of Sindh. The interviews were conducted from the Assistant Directors and Site Officers working in secondary cities to the higher officials (Director General and Directors) of Sindh Government to get rigorous and unbiased research findings. The employment data were gathered from the labor force statistics, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Labor, Manpower and Overseas Pakistani Division, Government of Pakistan.

In qualitative research, ethical consideration is a vital component for the protection of participants [37]. Therefore, the respondents had full rights to share the information, or decline and terminate the interview at any point.

4. Data Analysis

The data was analyzed through SWOT analysis techniques. SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) is a useful method for planning analysis. It develops a basis for the formulation of action strategies, which helps in achieving goals and objectives in priority areas [40,41]. SWOT analysis technique also helped in answering the questions of: “what’s good and bad about the 7^th and 8^th five-year plans?” and “what is good and bad about the plans’ present and future impacts on agro-based industrial development in secondary cities of Sindh province”? [42] The Nvivo software was used for the analysis of collected data to avoid biased results. According to Bazeley (2007), “NVIVO is capable of managing, accessing, and keeping a perspective on the entire data without losing focus on its richness and that is the essence of qualitative research” [43]. The inductive content analysis technique was used in NVivo software to get the SWOT of the 7^th and 8^th five-year plans. This type of method is only used in qualitative studies to generate findings and put them into context [44,45,46].

5. Results

During the study years, i.e. 1988–1998, two five-year development plans, the 7^th five-year (1988–1993) and 8^th five-year (1993–1998), were presented [14]. The results of SWOT analysis of each plan consist of document review and the answers of key informants’ interviews are presented below:

5.1. Seventh five-year Plan (1988–1993)

An amount of Rs (Pakistani Ruppees). 660.2 billion was allocated for 7^th five-year plan. The agriculture and industrial sectors had a share of 12.3 and 9 billion, respectively, in 7^th five-year plan [47]. However, the tempo of growth was affected by unforeseen events on domestic and international fronts. Therefore, the growth performance of agriculture and manufacturing sectors were below the plan target. The GDP grew at 3.8% and 5.9% against a target of 4.7% and 8.1% for agriculture and industrial sectors, respectively [48].

The results of documents and key informant interviews reveal that the establishment of industrial credit cells, up-gradation of sugar and textile industries, and the provision of institutions for technical assistance to the industrialists were the strengths of the 7^th five-year plan (see

Table 1. SWOT Analysis of 7^th Five Year Plan (1988–93).

Strengths	Weaknesses
Up-gradation of sugar and textile industries The value addition in sugar industrial products like sprit, alcohol, brown sugar, boards, etc Development of industrial credit cell to provide loans to agro-based and cottage industries investors	High Priority for the growth of major industries like sugar and textile were given in Karachi and other metropolitan cities of the country Weak planning polices to develop and expand medium and small agricultural industries in secondary cities All the execution powers economic development plans belongs to Central government Lack of coordination and understanding between the central and provincial institution Absence of domestic funds Reliance on foreign funds given in aid Delays in the execution of most of the new projects
Opportunities	Threats
Keen interest to develop process units for export oriented items Establishment of institutions to guide industrialist about suitable export design and modern technologies Provision of infrastructure for agricultural small industrial units	Federal system of development plans Frequent changes in the federal government The political will of the federal government Insufficient policies to develop infrastructure for agricultural industries in secondary cities War in Iraq Worldwide recession Delay in the settlement of Afghan issue Afghan refugees have created poor law and order

and Table 3 and Figure 1).

The lack of strategies for small and medium industries, high importance for sugar and textile industries in secondary cities, provincial government reliance on federal government to prepare development plans and release funds, absence of coordination among various provincial and federal institutions, unavailability of domestic funds, and a reliance on foreign aid resulting in a delay in most of the projects and programs were the weaknesses of 7^th five-year plan (see Tables 1 and 4 and Figure 2).

The plan also offered opportunities for the development of processing units for export products and provision of infrastructure, marketing, and credit services for agricultural trades as shown in Tables 1 and 5 and Figure 3. However, the 7^th five-year plan also faced threats in the form of the centralized development planning system and frequent changes in federal governments. The war in Iraq and Afghanistan, no infrastructure for agricultural industries in secondary cities, poor law and order, and worldwide recession were also threats for the 7^th five-year plan (see Tables 1 and 6 and Figure 4).

5.2. Eighth Five-Year Development Plan (1993–98)

The size of the 8^th five-year plan was Rs. 1,701 billion [48]. An amount of Rs. 90.8 and Rs. 365.2 billion were allocated for agriculture and industrial sectors in the 8^th five-year plan [48]. However, the agriculture and industrial sector’s performance was not satisfactory due to lack of proper implementation policies [49]. The GDP of 8^th five-year plan grew at 3.2% and 2.68% against a target of 4.9% and 9.9% for agriculture and industrial sectors respectively [49].

The analysis based on the opinion of key informant interviewees and document review revealed that the development of agricultural industrial units in secondary cities, entrepreneur diversification encouraging private sector development, establishment of Provincial Small Industrial Corporation (PSIC), and provision of value addition for horticulture crops were the strengths of the 8th development plan (see

Table 2. SWOT Analysis of 8^th Five Year Plan (1993–98).

Strengths	Weaknesses
Development of agricultural industrial development in secondary cities and rural areas Entrepreneurs change by developing handicraft and agro-based small industries for women farmers Strengthen the role of Provincial small industries corporation as service facilitator and skills disseminator Value addition in horticulture crops like fruit juices, pickles, jam, jelly, marmalade, etc to compete in export markets Inviting foreign investors to establish export industries Encouraging private sector investment in agro-based industries	Failed to establish export processing zone in secondary cities The execution of economic development plans are taken at the federal level Favoritism of federal government for Punjab province Absence of coordination between central and provinces institutions Less financial support to implement plans
Opportunities	Threats
Establishment of export processing zone in Sukkur and other cities Improving infrastructural facilities in industrial areas Provision of marketing facilities for small and medium industries Improving the quality and availability of human resources Credit services for agricultural industrial units through the development of industrial credit cells	Weak marketing and other agro-based service ◙ Federal mechanism to develop plans Change of federal government The political will of the federal government Prohibition of all development programs in Sindh province due to anti-Sindh propaganda of the federal government

adn

Table 3. Content Analysis Coding Results for Strengths of National 7^th and 8^th Five Year Development Plans.

Strengths	Development Plans	Number of Respondents	%age (n x100/30)
Development of agricultural industries in rural areas and secondary cities	7th Plan	--	--
	8th Plan	21	70
Development and up-gradation of sugar and textile industries	7th Plan	27	90
	8th Plan	--	--
Value addition in horticulture crops to compete in export markets	7th Plan	--	--
	8th Plan	26	86.67
Development of technical assistance centers and organizations	7th Plan	28	93.33
	8th Plan	24	80
Encouraging private sector investment in agro-based industries	7th Plan	--	--
	8th Plan	27	90

and Figure 1).

The plan had the weaknesses of failure for the establishment of export processing zones in the study area, dependency on the central government to sanctions and issue funds, and lack of understanding and coordination among various central and provincial ministries (see Table 2 and

Table 4. Content analysis coding results for weaknesses of national 7th and 8th five-year development plans.

Weaknesses (basic-Theme)	Weaknesses (Sub-Theme)	Development Plans	Number of Respondents	%age (n x100/30)
Weaknesses in 7th and 8th five-year development plans for agricultural-based industrial growth	High Priority for the development of both “textile and sugar” industrial sectors in metropolitan cities	7th Plan	25	83.33
		8th Plan	--	--
	Poor planning policies for the growth of light and medium agricultural industries	7th Plan	24	80
		8th Plan	--	--
	Failed to establish export processing zone in Sukkur and other secondary cities	7th Plan	--	--
		8th Plan	27	90
Weaknesses in the planning system of the country	Preparation and execution of economic plans authority belongs to the central government	7th Plan	21	70
		8th Plan	24	80
	Less coordination among central and provincial institutions	7th Plan	22	73.33
		8th Plan	21	70
	Reliance on foreign funding given in aid	7th Plan	24	80
		8th Plan	--	--
	Absence of economic funds to implement plans	7th Plan	21	70
		8th Plan	24	80

and Figure 2).

Whereas the development of export processing zone in secondary cities, provision of infrastructure facilities in the industrial areas and facilitation of credit facilities were the opportunities the 8^th five-year plan had offered for the growth of agricultural industrial units (given in Table 2 and

Table 5. Content analysis coding results for opportunities of national 7th and 8th five-year development plans.

Opportunities (Sub-Themes)	Development Plans	No of Respondents	Percentage (n x100/30)
Growth of processing industries for export	7th Plan	24	80
	8th Plan	29	96.67
Delivery and expansion of infrastructure services	7th Plan	21	70
	8th Plan	24	80
Facilities for credit services	7th Plan	27	90
	8th Plan	26	86.67
Improvement in marketing facilities	7th Plan	--	--
	8th Plan	23	76.67

and Figure 3).

However, results also revealed that the 8^th five-year plan had faced the threats of the federal planning system, political uncertainties, and poor policies of infrastructure services. Therefore, the key informant claimed that due to federal government’s favoritism and anti-Sindh development propaganda, all the development programs in Sindh were halted and funding was stopped (Table 2 and

Table 6. Content analysis coding results of threats for national 7^th and 8^th five-year development plans.

Threats (Main-Themes)	Threats (Sub-Themes)	Development Plans	No of Respondents	Percentage (n x100/30)
Planning system threats for 7th and 8th five-year development plans	Weak strategic infrastructure facilities in secondary cities	7th Plan 8th Plan	23 22	76.67 73.33
	The centralized system of development plans	7th Plan	23	76.67
		8th Plan	24	80
	Political uncertainties and will of the federal government	7th Plan	23	76.67
		8th Plan	26	86.67
Cross-border threats for 7th and 8th five-year development plans	War in Iraq and worldwide recession	7th Plan 8th Plan	23 --	76.67 --
	Continuing issue of Afghanistan war	7th Plan	22	73.33
		8th Plan	--	--
	Afghan refugees are the main cause of poor law and order situation in Pakistan	7th Plan	25	83.33
		8th Plan	--	--

and Figure 4).

5.3. SWOT Analysis of Seventh and Eighth Five-Year Plans

The open-ended questionnaire was designed to conduct thirty key informant interviews from officers who work in agricultural offices (USAID 1996; Pact, 2014). The gathered data of interviews were analyzed in Nvivo software by using the deductive content analysis method to get the SWOT of 7^th and 8^th five-year plan. The ABICase1-30 present the identification of all key informants and their opinion on 7^th and 8^th development plans. The results of SWOT of both plans based on the answers of key informant interviews and document review are given below:

5.3.1. Strengths of Seventh and Eighth Five-Year Plans

The “7^th and 8^th five-year plans” showed five strengths of agricultural industries given in Table 3 (see Table 3). The overall strength of both (agro-based industrial) plans is fully described in Figure 1.

The strengths of the 7^th and 8^th five-year plans for agricultural industrial growths include:

The analysis of the plans revealed that more than 70% of key respondents were of the opinion that the 8^th development plan had given planning strategies for the development of agricultural industrial units (refer Figure 1 and Table 3). The plan had also presented strategies for the development of medium and small industries, along with major industries of “textile and sugar” (ABICase14; 29). In this regard, the 8^th five-year plan suggested entrepreneurial change by developing handicraft and agro-based small industries for women farmers (ABICase24; 7).

• More than 86% interviewees claimed that the 7^th five-year development plan suggested planning strategies to develop and upgrade “textile and sugar industries” and introduce value addition for sugar trade to increase local sales, as well as domestic and export (ABICase6; 20) (see Table 3 and Figure 1).
• About 87% agro-based interviewees assert that the 8^th five-year plan was the only plan during 1988-1998, which had presented strategies for the processing, packaging, marketing, and grading facilities for horticultural products to meet the requirements of export markets (ABICase8; 21; 28) (shown in Table 3 and Figure 1).
• From the analysis, we came to know that 80% of agro-based officers replied that both plans suggested that it is essential to provide “technical assistance centres” to strengthen the institutions. These technical centres will help to disseminate information regarding modern technologies and will improve export (Table 3 and Figure 1). This way, the “7^th and 8^th five-year plans” suggested strengthening the role of Provincial Small Industrial corporations (ABICase6; 11; 18).
• The results show that 90% agro-based interviewees responded that the eighth five-year plan was the only plan, which came up with the strategy of encouraging private sector investment for the agricultural industrial sector in backward regions (ABICase22) (shown in Table 1 and Figure 1). The local and foreign investors were invited to establish export industries (ABICase3; 12).

5.3.2. Weaknesses of the 7th and 8th Plans

The outcome of analysis has exposed mainly two kinds of planning weaknesses in 7th and 8th plans: weaknesses of agricultural-based industrial growth and a poor planning system. Table 4 and Figure 2 present the real picture of each weakness. The weaknesses of 7th and 8th plans are discussed below.

Weaknesses for Agro-Based Industrial Development: The results present three kinds of weaknesses in 7^th and 8^th five-year plans for agricultural-based industrial growth is given in Table 4 and Figure 2. The weakness of agricultural-based industrial plans of the 7^th and 8th five-year plans are given below:

• More than 80% of agro-based key informants claim that sugar and textile industries have been given high priority in the 7^th and 8^th five-year plans as shown in Table 4 and Figure 2. The key share of the agricultural industrial development budget was also given to develop textile and sugar industries (ABICase7; 21; 30).
• More than 80% of key informant claimed that the planning policies for the development of medium and small agricultural industries were absent in the 7^th five-year plan for secondary cities (ABICase8; 12; 19) as given in Table 4 and Figure 2.
• 90% of agro-based officials were of the opinion that the 8^th five-year plan’s strategy of developing export processing zones in Sindh secondary cities was not implemented due to changes in federal government (ABICase6; 10; 15; 20) (see Table 4 and Figure 2).

Weaknesses in the Planning System: The evaluation of key informant interviews and documents review presented four kinds of planning weaknesses in the system. These weaknesses are presented in both agricultural-based plans (7^th and 8^th) as shown Table 4 and Figure 2. The weaknesses of the 7^th and 8^th five-year plans are due to poor planning; details are given:

• According to 70% of key informants of the agro-based sector, Pakistan has a federal planning system. Therefore, all the income generated from taxes and revenues are collected by the central government (ABICase3; 5; 18; 22). In addition, provincial institutions are dependent on the central government for the sanctioning of development budget (ABICase1; 14; 30) (see Table 4 and Figure 2).
• In Pakistan, all institutions are fully dependent on the central government. Therefore, the five-year development plans are developed by federal government. The central government has authority through a law to prepare and implement five-year plans. There is an absence of an intermediate plan system at the provincial level. The provincial governments can only develop annual plans (ABICase3; 7; 30). Due to this planning gap, more than 70% of key informants replied that there are lack of communication and coordination among various provincial and central institutions (ABICase114; 25) (see Table 4 and Figure 2).
• 80% of key interviewees asserted that during the 7^th five-year plan, the federal government was lacking in domestic funding and heavily relayed on foreign aid (see Table 4 and Figure 2). Due to this reason, almost all the suggested programs of development plans were executed later than their actual time (ABICase7; 11; 29).
• Mostly, the central government allocated and released development funds for specific programs which are in their favor. This was claimed by more than 70% of informants as described in Table 4 and Figure 2. Thus, during the 8^th five-year plan, the development programs in Sindh were not implemented due to unwillingness of the federal government (ABICase9; 16; 23).

5.3.3. Opportunities for Agricultural Industrial Growth

The “7^th and 8^th five-year plans” had presented a total of four opportunities for agricultural industrial growth as given Table 5. Figure 3 shows the detailed cognitive map of 7^th and 8^th five-year plan.

The Opportunities of the 7^th and 8^th Five-Year plans for agricultural industries includes:

• 80% of key interviewees replied that “7^th and 8^th five-year plans” show strategies to develop export-oriented processing units to increase foreign exchange earnings as given in Table 5 and Figure 3. In this way, the 7th five-year plan had proposed to establish institutions to guide industrialists about suitable export design and modern technologies (ABICase10; 19). The 8th five-year plan had also suggested, for the establishment of export processing zones, to pursue foreign investors, increase employment opportunities, produce export-oriented products, promote technology transfers, and get more foreign exchange earnings through value addition in secondary cities (ABICase5; 18; 26).
• More than 70% of agro-based key interviewees claimed that 7^th and 8^th five-year plans have offered strategies to provide ample infrastructure services for agricultural-based industries as presented in Table 5 and Figure 3. Thus, both five-year plans contain plans to design and develop urban areas with more facilities and services. Business centers, market roads, and utility services must be provided in industrial areas (ABICase1; 3; 15; 30).
• 86% of key interviewees replied that both development plans contain strategies to give credit services to agricultural industrial development (see Table 5 and Figure 3). Thus, both 7th and 8th five-year plans had suggested developing industrial credit cells to provide loans to agro-based and cottage industry investors (ABICase15; 17; 30).
• About 77% of agro-based officials also declared that the 8th five-year plan had also suggested delivering and expanding marketing services for agricultural industries (ABICase18; 23); this is also described in Table 5 and Figure 3.

5.3.4. Threats for Seventh and Eighth Five-Year Plans

The results revealed two main types of threats for “7^th and 8^th five- year plans”. The threats were cross border issues and the planning system of Pakistan. The threats of both plans are based on the document review and key informants interview. Details are given in Table 6 and Figure 4.

Threats in Planning System: The investigation revealed three kinds of common threats in both 7^th and 8^th five-year plans for agricultural-based industrial sectors, as given in Table 6 and Figure 4. The weak planning system of the country has caused these threats. The planning system threats for the “7^th and 8^th five-year plans" include:

1. More than 73% of key informants were of the opinion that the 7^th and 8^th five-year plans failed to provide strategies of infrastructure services for agricultural industries in secondary cities as shown in Table 6 and Figure 4, even though the aim of both plans was to give marketing and credit services for agricultural industries. However, because of provincial organization reliance on the central government for funds, the credit facilities for medium and small industrial investors were lacking (ABICase5; 17; 24).

2. More than 76% of key informant of agro-based sector strongly claimed that the centralized planning system of Pakistan is the major threat for five-year development plans, as shown in Table 6 and Figure 4. In a federal system, the central government has the autonomy for decision making and release of capital (ABICase6; 13; 20). Therefore, the decision regarding the development program is taken on the willingness of the federal government and ministries (ABICase16; 27).

3. More than 76% of key informants responded that the change in the federal government had also created obstacles in the implementation of development plans, which are given in Table 6 and Figure 4 due to federal planning system, frequent changes in central government, and political will of the federal government played a powerful role in halting the implementation of many development programs of 7^th and 8^th five-year plans (ABICase5; 17; 26). This especially happened in Sindh province (ABICase8; 29). The programs of the 8^th five-year plan were not implemented in Sindh province. The federal government of that time had their roots in Punjab province. Whereas Sindh province inhabitants had favored another party with a big majority. Therefore, the central government had prohibited all development work in Sindh province due to anti-Sindh propaganda (ABICase20; 24).

Cross-Border Threats: The analyzed results of agro-based key informant interviewees exposed three kinds of cross border threats present in the 7^th five-year plan as shown in Table 6 and Figure 4. The cross a border threat for the five-year development plans contain:

1. During 7^th five-year plan, there was a Gulf war in Iraq (1990) (see table 6 and Figure 4) that also created a worldwide recession at that time (ABICase3; 7). Therefore, about 77% of key informants claimed that a developing country like Pakistan, who mostly relies on foreign aid for the implementation of development programs, it was difficult to execute plans due to a shortage of funds (ABICase9; 14).

2. More than 73% of key informants were of the opinion that the prolonged war in Afghanistan is a basic cross border threat for Pakistan, as presented in Table 6 and Figure 4. Due to continuing war in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1990, the Afghan people migrated to Pakistan. The Pakistani government was economically burdened during 7^th five-year plan (1988-93) for accommodating the Afghan refugees. Therefore, it generated hindrances in various development works. The major part of the budget was allocated to accommodate the Afghan people (ABICase10; 19).

3. The 83% key interviewees responded that the presence of Afghani immigrants had created law and order problems in the northern part of Pakistan (ABICase4; 18; 25) (see Table 6 and Figure 4). Consequently, thousands of innocent people were killed in the north region due to the presence of Afghani people (ABICase8; 20; 27).

6. Discussion

Based on the results discussed in Section 4, the study has explored the following planning strategies gaps in the 7^th and 8^th five-year, which are discussed below.

Absence of Planning Strategies for agricultural industries growth in Secondary Cities

The 8^th five-Year plan had proposed planning strategies for heavy, small, and medium agricultural industrial sectors. However, the 7^th five-Year plan was lacking for planning strategies of medium and small agricultural industrial development in secondary cities. The 7^th five-year plan had focused on the development of heavy industries like textile and sugar. All the major industrial and infrastructure development projects were also designed preferably in Karachi, and then Hyderabad, leaving the secondary and small urban settlements of Sindh province to have declined and depressed areas with lagging economies.

Lack of policies for Infrastructure services in Facilities in Secondary Cities

The 7^th and 8^th five-year development plans had suggested to assign farm to market road linkages, utility services in industrial estates, and establishment of business centers in urban areas (as discussed in results section). Both development plans suggested strategies for the growth of agricultural industries by providing credit facilities. However, the federal government gave priority to developing and expanding the sugar and textile industries in metropolitan cities (as discussed in our results section). Furthermore, due to the federal planning structure in the country, the provinces depend on central government to allocate and release funds (as discussed in results section). In this regard the federal government gave loans to the textile and sugar industrialists and provided strategic infrastructure facilities in metropolitan city industrial sites. Thus, due to these reasons both plans failed to implement strategic infrastructure programs and loan facilities for small and medium industrial sectors investment in secondary cities. Consequently, the absence of strategic infrastructure resulted in slowing down agricultural industrial growth in Sindh.

Centralized Planning System of Pakistan

The analysis also reveals that the country has a federal system to design, develop, and allocate budget for five-year development plans. Thus, the central government, with its own authority can cease development work in any part of the country. Therefore, powers belong to the federal government, whereas the provincial government fully relies on the federal government to implement plans. Therefore, the programs of the 8^th five-year plan were not implemented in Sindh province because the federal government of that time had their roots in Punjab province, whereas Sindh province’s inhabitants had favored another party with a large majority. In reaction, the central government prohibited all development work in Sindh province due to anti-Sindh propaganda.

Cross-Border Threats

During 7^th five-year plan time period there was no change in governmental setup. However, the plan was not fully implemented due to cross-border threats. Unfortunately, Pakistan mostly relies on foreign aid for the implementation of most of its programs. During 7^th five-year plan time, the gulf war occurred in the Middle East and most of the donor agencies were only focused on Middle East countries, as claimed by 77% of key informants (discussed in the results section). Therefore, the 7^th five-year plan was not implemented in Pakistan due to non-availability of foreign funds during that time period.

7. Conclusions

In this study, our aim was to critically evaluate and explore the planning policies loopholes in the 7^th and 8^th five-year development plans of Pakistan for raising the agricultural-based industries development in secondary cities. From the above results, both five-year plans suggest strategies for development and expansion of export processing industries, provision of strategic infrastructure and credit facilities, and development of technical assistance centers. Moreover, the 8^th five-year plan suggested strategies for the development of agricultural-based industrial units in secondary cities, value addition for horticulture crops, provision of marketing facilities, and collaboration of private sector in the development of agro-based industrial units. The results discussed in part 3 and 4 show that the 7^th and 8^th five-year plans faced weaknesses and threats mostly because of traditional planning techniques and dependency on a federal planning system.

It is a dilemma of Pakistan planning system that the development plans are prepared at the national level. The intermediate level planning system is absent at the provincial level. In-country, the central government has the power to take development decisions and allocate funds; it can also prohibit any program on a whim. These factors have also influenced planning and implementation of 7^th and 8^th five-year plans (as discussed in Section 3 and Section 4).

Thus, decentralization power is the only solution to avoid failure of development plans. The provincial and local governments should be authorized to design and implement their development plans, equal distribution of funds among federal and provincial governments, and equal importance to focus secondary, metropolitan, and other small cities. This decentralization will strengthen the political stabilization of provincial governments. If translated into the words of one of the key informants, stated as “the provinces should have the autonomy to develop five-year plans separately at the provincial level to avoid the political based decisions and diversion of development funds for other purposes” (ABICase1, p.3).

It is also recommended that the Pakistan and Sindh government should also come up with healthy planning strategies for five-year development plans. Those planning strategies not only cover the metropolitan areas, but also stimulate agricultural-based industrial growth in secondary cities. This will increase the economic sustainability of Sindh province, as well as Pakistani nation, which will ultimately reduce their reliance on foreign aid. The other countries of this globe can also stimulate their economic growth by adopting these strategies to develop their secondary cities. The planners and policymakers world-wide also need to consider the unique economic resources of the secondary cities and their rural areas, while designing the planning strategies of the five-year development plans. This will also help in reducing disparities among metropolitan and secondary cities, and reduces congestion from metropolitan cities. Thus, through this process, sustainable development can be achieved at local, regional, national, and global levels.

The study of secondary cities having the role of planning strategies of five-year plans to bring the development of agricultural industrial growth has not been conducted before. This study does have, however, a few limitations. In it were conducted key informant interviews only from agricultural industrial unit officials employed in Sindh province. Although, for further elaboration, it would also be beneficial to interview the agro-based key informants working federal ministries to get insights on the deficiencies of five-year plans.