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Open AccessArticle

Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in the Energy Base, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China

State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
College of Resource and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert Grassland Ecosystem in Xinjiang, Cele 848300, China
Jiangxi Climate Center, Nanchang 330096, China
Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Institute of Geological Sciences, Free University of Berlin, 12249 Berlin, Germany
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2019, 11(15), 4220;
Received: 16 June 2019 / Revised: 31 July 2019 / Accepted: 2 August 2019 / Published: 5 August 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Sustainable Urban and Regional Management)
The realization of carbon emissions peak is important in the energy base area of China for the sustainable development of the socio-economic sector. The STIRPAT model was employed to analyze the elasticity of influencing factors of carbon emissions during 1990–2010 in the Xinjiang autonomous region, China. The results display that population growth is the key driving factor for carbon emissions, while energy intensity is the key restraining factor. With 1% change in population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity, energy structure, urbanization level, and industrial structure, the change in carbon emissions was 0.80%, 0.48%, 0.20%, 0.07%, 0.58%, and 0.47%, respectively. Based on the results from regression analysis, scenario analysis was employed in this study, and it was found that Xinjiang would be difficult to realize carbon emissions peak early around 2030. Under the condition of the medium-high change rates in energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure, and with the low-medium change rates in population, GDP per capita, and urbanization level, Xinjiang will achieve carbon emissions peak at of 626.21, 636.24, 459.53, and 662.25 million tons in the year of 2030, 2030, 2040, and 2040, respectively. At last, under the background of Chinese carbon emissions peak around 2030, this paper puts forward relevant policies and suggestions to the sustainable socio-economic development for the energy base area, Xinjiang autonomous region. View Full-Text
Keywords: carbon emissions; peak; energy base; STIRPAT model; policy implications carbon emissions; peak; energy base; STIRPAT model; policy implications
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MDPI and ACS Style

Qin, J.; Tao, H.; Zhan, M.; Munir, Q.; Brindha, K.; Mu, G. Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in the Energy Base, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4220.

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