3.1. InSAT Assessment Process: Indicators as Early Warning Signals
The primary version of the indicator system for coastal sustainable development was initially applied by Schernewski et al. in 2017 [
31] as an outcome of the SUSTAIN project. Later on, the QualityCoast indicators were submerged into the SUSTAIN spreadsheet-based assessment method [
32], but the results were not easily reproducible, and it was difficult to compare them with those related to other destinations as well as with indicators with too strong a focus on tourism [
32]. As a consequence, tailor-made indicators were chosen to cover three categories of sustainability (environmental quality, economics, and social well-being), and process indicators were included to measure the success of ICZM [
21]. The new tailor-made sustainability indicators covering a wide spectrum of coastal issues were developed. In addition to this, the indicator development process resulted in the rewording of indicator definitions as well as the reduction number of indicators from previous methodologies [
21]. In this study, the indicators were split into
core and
optional with the aim to improve previous study gaps and to avoid significant differences in the results [
21]. The results of this study showed that the selection process of optional indicators had both pros and cons. The benefit of having optional indicators for the assessment is that they served as objectives to assess particular case studies by showing their specificities. Being able to apply the InSAT on a wide spectrum of coastal and marine case studies provides flexibility. However, due to a misunderstanding, the evaluators incorrectly selected optional indicators by applying the tool on the hypothetical management option of CS 3 (the beach opening in Nida) (see
Table 2). In fact, the evaluators chose exactly the same optional indicators for both management options (MO 1 and MO 2), even if the selection process was clearly described and given in written form before the evaluation actually started. In this regard, the selection of optional indicators should be clearly highlighted in the tool to allow for more accurate findings and to also facilitate the detailing of specificities of the different hypothetical management options. The results prove that the selection analysis of optional indicators is useful to extract differences between management options addressing sustainability [
40].
In terms of determining the optimal number of experts that should be involved in the assessment procedure to obtain clear and reliable results, by comparing the results obtained by experts with those provided by students, it seems that such an optimal number is between 4 and 5 experts for one case study. In fact, having a greater number of experts can overly complicate the process, making discussions last longer than they should. The comment cell of the InSAT helped to (a) provide more or better background information, (b) settle possible misunderstandings in bilateral discussions, and (c) facilitate a joint discussion between experts.
In applications, the experts and student groups could choose between seven scores, defined as a “strong,” “considerable,” or “weak” negative effect, “no change,” or a “strong,” “considerable,” or “weak” positive effect with respect to sustainability contribution. The Likert scale will always allow for an element of subjectivity, but it is well known that this is the biggest problem with qualitative assessments. However, the tool is good to use in the case of hypothetical scenarios because, with no data available, the indicators and their corresponding results can still support modeling. The quantitative assessment is useful when you are trying to understand a certain outcome. The discussions with evaluators after assessments are very important because, even when evaluating the same case study, evaluators may end up with different or even conflicting results. Therefore, the qualitative information is important and sometimes more valuable compared with quantitative information because it involves human interpretations. In fact, there is a need for interpretation, especially when one is assessing hypothetical scenarios and needs to decide what kind of hypothesis is needed. The application results showed that the experts who are working in the coastal and marine field brought forth better knowledge and perception on the study site in comparison with the results of assessments carried out by students. All in all, the assessment results were collected from all evaluators, and averages were calculated as a percentage for the final result of each category.
3.1.1. Implemented Measures: The LNG Terminal in Klaipeda
Like many other countries in Europe, Lithuania is facing challenges in the energy sector in terms of the security of energy supply, competitiveness, and the sustainability of the energy sector. One of the national tasks for sustainable economy development has been to decrease gas consumption by replacing it with renewable energy sources, while ensuring gas supply alternatives in the short term [
41]. For this purpose, the construction of LNG floating storage and a regasification unit terminal was implemented in Klaipeda. LNG allows Lithuania to import natural gas from various countries around the world and as such has an effect on the Lithuania economy. The assessment results of the case study on the LNG terminal showed weak positive effects on environmental quality (25%) and social well-being (28%) and showed considerable positive effects on the economic category (41%) (
Figure 5). CS 1 strongly contributes to the economic sub-categories: accounting & regulation, labour & welfare, technology & infrastructure, and exchange & transfer.
The assessment results demonstrated that the LNG terminal affects financial policies and instruments that support economic stability and resilience and ensures acceptable employment and training opportunities for local residents. As a consequence of the LNG terminal construction in Klaipeda, the new full-time Bachelor study program “Engineering of Liquefied Natural Gas Terminals” is offered at the Klaipeda University. The programme aims to prepare specialists of marine engineering and provide them with the knowledge required for the developing sector related to the use of LNG. The LNG terminal construction contributes to the learning sub-category and provides educational opportunities, supports life-long learning, and increases awareness of sustainability. The comprehensive engineering training at Klaipeda University ensures wider employment opportunities for graduates at offshore and onshore LNG terminals. Moreover, regarding social well-being, CS 1 has weak positive effects on the public health & wellbeing sub-category by improving quality of life as well as on the local identity & tradition and freedom & justice sub-categories. However, there are several negatives associated with CS 1; it has weak negative effects on resident access to natural sites due to the visual pollution of the Curonian Lagoon brought about by LNG storage. In addition, the environmental quality indicators were helpful in evaluating environmental progress towards sustainable development. The case study has weak negative effects on environmental quality categories such as changes at the coast & adaptation, planning and management, and biodiversity & nature protection. CS 1 affects natural habitats, biodiversity, and its quality as well as land use planning and management. The shipping and maintenance activities of the location in question increased. The LNG terminal has considerable negative effects on the conservation of key natural sites.
We applied the process indicators to assess the success of the management process. The results indicate that this case study covered quite a number of SAF steps and reached a high score in managing the implementation process (70.3%). The factors leading to success were namely the fact that a management team with broad competence and sufficient representation was built to lead the planning process, that stakeholder groups were determined, and that a strategy was developed on how to assess the economic, ecological, and social consequences of different scenarios. An environmental impact assessment (EIA) was carried out before the construction of the LNG terminal. Moreover, the feasibility, costs, and efficiency of scenarios were reviewed and evaluated. In addition to this, some data relating to the project was missing; for example, it is not known whether there was a strategy to tackle issues of missing data and uncertainty during the implementation process. The case study implementation demonstrated several weaknesses. The problem identified by process indicators points towards a lack of communication with society and public in general. The concept was implemented but not fully accepted by the public and consequently caused many demonstrations and discussions. Moreover, whereas the entire process was documented, only part of the information was publicly available. As a case in point, the EIA is no longer publically accessible, though during the implementation procedure it was available on the website of the Klaipeda Nafta organisation. While LNG terminal construction has several shortcomings, it is fair to say that it also presents a number of positive effects in terms of the regional and national economy. The InSAT assessment results of the LNG terminal in Klaipeda (CS 1) proved that both indicators and the tool are suitable to identify strengths and weaknesses of the implemented management initiative.
3.1.2. Measure Implementation in Progress: The Port of Sventoji
We applied the InSAT to demonstrate that indicators are suitable in the planning process to assess changes of sustainability and to illustrate advantages and disadvantages of renewing a port of Sventoji (CS 2). The main aim for renewing the port of Sventoji is to develop and increase tourism in the area and contribute to the local economy. The port renewal process was stopped only after it had been operating for ten days (June 2011).
The InSAT application results showed that CS 2 considerably contributes to the social well-being (50%) and economic (59%) categories but just weakly to the environmental quality category (3%) (
Figure 6). CS 2 contributes negatively to the environmental quality sub-categories such as pollution, biodiversity & nature protection, and tourism & recreation. The port renewal has weak negative effects on air, water, and land pollution, natural habitats, biodiversity, and their quality and increases coastal erosion. Moreover, CS 2 has considerable and strong positive effects on land use planning and urban development but increases pressure due to coastal and marine recreation, which leads to increased amounts of beach and marine litter.
In addition, CS 2 positively affects the sub-categories of social well-being: public health & wellbeing, local identity & tradition, freedom & justice, and to some extent learning. The Port of Sventoji improves quality of life and increases awareness about sustainability. It promotes communication and cooperation between citizens and local authorities. Furthermore, this case study increases the production of local and fair-trade goods and services. In addition, the optional indicators indicated that CS 2 boosts public events, concerts, and festivals organised to strengthen the area’s local identity. The renewed port encourages visitors to volunteer or contribute to community development, cultural heritage, and biodiversity conservation. The higher number of tourists increases the consumption of goods that are locally produced. Additionally, CS 2 supports providing interpretive information at the site, with the information being communicated in relevant languages.
The assessment results demonstrated the importance of port renewal for the local economy. The case study considerably affects financial policies and instruments to support economic stability and resilience, while it ensures an acceptable level of employment by providing more new job positions in the region. Additionally, CS 2 enhances investments in coastal management, promotes infrastructure development, and increases environmental friendly transport. CS 2 has strong positive effects on tourism management and its strategy. As a result, there is a plan to use bicycles and small boats on site to limit air, water, and land pollution. The optional indicators selected from the economic category showed that CS 2 considerably increases the volume of port traffic because of incoming and outgoing passengers as well as the volume of goods. In addition, it increases recreational boating and seasonal tourism pressure.
The assessment of CS 2 indicates that the process has not been implemented fully, and several weaknesses were identified. As a case in point, a management team with broad competence was built to lead the planning process, but there is no information relating to stakeholder involvement in the plan development and management initiative implementation process. Likewise, assessments were not made of impacts on different stakeholders. Furthermore, there is no strategy relating to the issues of missing data and uncertainty in the implementation process. As a result, the entire process was not documented or made publicly available, and the success of the measure was not evaluated. The weaknesses identified could be improved upon in the future, perhaps in the eventual management procedure when renewing the Sventoji port. The assessment identified shortcomings in the implementation process, which could be improved through future planning at the Palanga municipality level as well as at a national level.
3.1.3. Hypothetical Scenarios: The New Beach Opening in Nida
Based on research conducted by Schernewski et al. (2017) [
23], while the present state of bathing water quality does not allow the opening of a new bathing site with a beach at the lagoon, one town has still decided to do so. The socio-economic analyses did show that lagoon water quality and the possibility to swim is not sufficiently important for tourists on the Curonian Spit to warrant the expense of the opening of a beach [
23].
We applied the indicator-based tool for the case study of the new beach opening in Nida (CS 3) to analyze which management option out of two (advertisement campaign or advertisement campaign combined with change in infrastructure, see
Table 1) is better in terms of sustainability for the strategic goal of establishing a new beach, taking into consideration the main aim of prolonging the bathing season. The main aim of this assessment was to assess the indicators’ suitability in measuring the sustainability of the proposed hypothetical management options. MO 1 was based on advertising the newly established beach, the possibility for cheaper off-season accommodation rental prices, and on offering discounts for the Klaipeda-Nida ferry. Tourists are attracted to bird watching during the migration season, to the possibility to stay at camping sites along the Curonian lagoon, and to an increased number of concerts and activities, especially designed for nature lovers and kids. The difference between the two management options is that MO 2 also includes a change in infrastructure. It covers beach preparation such as beach cleaning, sand nourishment, water purification, constructing benches, trash bins, changing rooms, toilets, and a rescue station and involves setting up information boards about air and water temperature and other conditions and setting up a sign that reads “Beach.” Moreover, MO 2 covers renewing old, and building up new, nature paths for nature lovers.
As a result, the “advertisement campaign” (MO 1) and the “advertisement campaign combined with change in infrastructure” (MO 2) have considerable and strong positive effects on sustainability (
Figure 7). The results of MO 2 assessment, to a greater extent than results of MO 1, demonstrated that all sustainability categories have strong positive effects (EQ 63%, E 83%, SW 85%). Moreover, MO 1, showed strong positive effects on social well-being (75%) and considerable positive effects on the environmental quality (51%) and economics (56%).
The results of screening through indicators showed that both management options have some positive and some negative effects on environment quality. For example, there are some negative effects posed by the increasing number of tourists who come to the Curonian Spit by road transport (car and motorcycles). People will most likely come with cars, as the indicators identified that it will increase air pollution. In fact, during summer, different measures are implemented to increase green travel options, including bicycle promotion, a fast ferry from Klaipeda, and a waived ecological fee for hybrid cars. Consequently, there are fewer options and fewer financial advantages when reaching the area in spring and autumn. In the case of the official beach opening, some measures will be applied to ensure that pollution by litter and other organic matter (macroalgea, fish, insects, etc.) affecting the soil and water quality will be removed and monitored more often. In fact, the results showed a very small and local positive effect. MO 2 has a significant effect on land use planning, urban development and management because the beach establishment area belongs to the city and the city infrastructure will be slightly changed. Both management options increase pressure on coastal and marine recreation due to the increasing number of tourists in the pre- and post-season periods. However, when we focus on natural habitats, biodiversity, and the quality of them, the area is too small to be affected significantly. Moreover, both management options contribute to increased environmental awareness among the population since one of the planned main attractions is to promote nature sights. Moreover, the management options increase opportunities to observe coastal and marine fauna, with one of the activities being related to bird watching in spring and autumn.
Firstly, MO 1 showed that it could attract more tourists without significant expense. The expenses are much higher for the beach establishment and maintenance of MO 2, which will not be covered by increased tourism. Secondly, there needs to be a minor investment for MO 1 for advertising and significant investment in beach infrastructure for MO 2. Additionally, the management options affect patterns of sectoral employment in that people can be employed for a longer period, which increases seasonal employment. The new jobs created by the beach establishment have positive effects on the economy and social well-being in the area. However, according to Schernewski (2017), the beach opening will not create economic value [
23]. In fact, according to the assessment, the beach opening has a very small effect on the local economy but significant positive effects on social well-being. The indicator-based assessment showed that the case study implementation of MO 2 compared to MO 1 contributes more to sustainable development and would increase the attractiveness of the municipality, reduce seasonality, have minimal effects on environmental quality, lower economic costs, and enhance inhabitant satisfaction.
During the process of the development of management options, the InSAT can help initiate discussions between stakeholders and society. As a result, it will help decision-makers to generate information, to compare effects on the sustainable development of the municipality, and to provide a common understanding about the specific problems and the requirement for potential solutions. Moreover, the indicator-based tool has been proven to be applicable and efficient in raising awareness about sustainability by helping to initiate discussion on identified hot spots. However, while the tool indicates the management measure weaknesses, the assessment results do not indicate what kind of solutions should be undertaken. The tool is also valuable in the evaluation of concrete management initiatives by helping to provide a deeper look into environmental, social, and economic objectives. To this effect, the InSAT could be used together with the Stakeholder Preference and Planning Tool in supporting different aspects and levels of stakeholder engagement within ICZM [
13].
While the local regional case studies provided valuable insights, we highlight the merit of our approach that it is relevant beyond the study area, including the possibility to transfer results to other coastal regions for assessing and comparing management initiatives’ success and sustainability.
3.2. Indicators along the SAF Process: Are We Moving toward Success?
In this study, we analyzed to what extent, how, and when, along the SAF multi-step process, the InSAT could be applied to support the SAF and how the tool can be applied within other integrated approaches. It is good to note that following the SAF framework is considered to be an efficient way of structuring the coastal and marine management process. The SAF contributes to better management in terms of sustainability priorities. The information on how to use sustainability and process indicators together with the InSAT are publicly available in “The System Approach Framework (SAF) Handbook” (
http://www.safhandbook.net/). The SAF handbook provides a stepwise guide to sustainable Integrated Coastal Management and was developed as part of the BONUS BaltCoast project. The core of the SAF is the Ecological-Social-Economic (ESE) assessment [
17], and the assessment steps are shown on the left hand side of
Figure 8. The structured and stepwise SAF and ESE are suitable methodology to identify problems of coastal or marine management initiatives and to develop possible solutions to the problem.
Different tools have been used by decision-makers to minimize negative impacts and increase increasing positive outcomes of investments, leading to new management options. Among these tools, the one that was most widely used and studied is the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) [
42]. The EIA aims to mitigate and minimize the negative environmental impacts of a specific project but has a limited capacity to equally consider and integrate the three pillars of sustainability (environmental, social, and economic) into decision-making. Therefore, motivation to use integrated approaches to overcome this issue has risen globally [
42]. Furthermore, strategic decisions are made before the project scale, so consideration of strategic level alternatives is not possible in practice [
43]. In this respect, early practicing and assessment tools and frameworks are necessary for the evaluation and comparison of the sustainability of alternatives in order to inform decision-makers about the different outcomes of possible alternatives, to mitigate the approval of sustainably unsound projects in the future, and to operationalize the concept of sustainability in practice.
Our assessment results indicate that the InSAT could be used as a supporting tool for the SAF and other integrated assessments and marks an important step forward to counteract the present-day lack of practical methodological and guidance tools [
19,
44]. The SAF and the InSAT working together can help decision-makers to better understand the sustainability concept and measure the level of sustainability of current, planned, or hypothetical management options. The ICZM planning and the SAF issue identification as well as the system assessment phase includes strong and intensive interaction and involvement of stakeholders. Initial tasks include the development of potential management options and scenarios. Further down the line, the focus is shifted towards comparing and discussing alternative options and choosing the most suitable one. Therefore, InSAT indicators could be used as early warning signals to discuss and avoid possible problems in the future.
The InSAT can be used in several steps of the SAF (system design, system assessment, and monitoring & evaluation) (see
Figure 8). The first step of the SAF is issue identification, which initiates the SAF process to achieve sustainable ICZM. We highlight that indicators could be used in this step as well as in tandem with the Stakeholder Preference and Planning Tool [
13]. Both tools working together can identify success criteria and contribute to the identification of a problem or a conflict that needs to be resolved.
The second step in the SAF is system design. In this step, the concrete indicators should be selected from the InSAT list provided, as described in the InSAT application section of this paper. The potential management options should be discussed with stakeholders. The indicators selected for each success criterion are use at a later stage in evaluating the success of the management initiative. The management options will form the basis for scenario simulations in the next SAF step (system formulation). The step involving indicator selection highlights how stakeholder involvement plays an important role in that stakeholders could be helpful in reviewing and discussing relevant problems and issues and in further planning future management options.
In the system assessment step, the InSAT role is to provide easy-to-communicate results to stakeholders for further discussion. The application of the InSAT provides a good overview of consequences of potential management options in resolving the issue at hand. The InSAT increases awareness on aspects relating to sustainability. The tool provides an opportunity to compare sustainability scores at different layers, all the way from a category level through to sub-categories and down to the level of indicators, with particular objectives that allow us to adopt it to assessment needs while enabling an easy way to communicate results. Similar observations were identified testing other sustainability indicators [
26]. After the implementation of management initiatives, InSAT assessment allows for an assessment of the success of measures following the SAF steps. Moreover, the last step of the SAF application is monitoring & evaluation, which involves agreement on the indicators to be used for the evaluation of sustainability and the success of the management measure and appropriate monitoring. During this step, it is necessary to go through the indicators of the InSAT list and check whether these are aligned with the objectives of measure. In the system assessment step, selected indicators could be included and re-applied in the monitoring plan to assess changes after implementation of the policy decision. The results of the assessment should be made visible to the stakeholders.
Considering that all human actions have impacts on the environment trade-offs, which have an effect on sustainability quality, are inevitable. Therefore, the possible negative consequences of potential trade-offs in terms of sustainability should be well analyzed to avoid misunderstanding. The information provided should be clear, comparable, and easily accessible during decision-making. To deliver results, the group of experts should be involved from the very beginning of the process. The InSAT proved to be applicable and beneficial in raising awareness about sustainability and useful for visualizing results and discussing them with stakeholders. In fact, sustainability appears on three levels, starting from the indicator level, to the sub-categories, and to the final sustainability category level. The final scores can be presented to stakeholders with the triangle of sustainability, with all connected sustainability categories, which allows one to easily visualise and compare results. It is also a valuable tool in the success evaluation of the management initiatives process, from issue identification through to implementation and to the evaluation of success and monitoring. The tool helps to raise awareness on environmental, social, and economic issues. In the process, trade-offs must be clearly defined and the criteria on how to deal with them should be identified by choosing the most suitable indicators for evaluation and success.
3.3. InSAT as Decision Support Tool for Integrated Approaches
ICZM principles and approaches are well reflected and integrated into the MSP initiative, and we show that the InSAT can be used in different planning and implementation steps of each concept. The methodology seems to be useful to support strategic planning and to develop both a sustainability vision and a development strategy for the future. When data are not available for modeling, the InSAT provides a structure for collecting expert and local knowledge in a manner that can analyze scenario results of potential policy decisions. Furthermore, it supplements scenario results when modeling is possible in that it provides a more comprehensive view of the system in question.
Our application results have shown that the InSAT assessment is more suitable for supporting and guiding SAF discussion processes, rather than delivering explicit results. The InSAT assessments deliver quick results; this allows for comparison between management options and a subsequent discussion thereon with stakeholders. Typically, evaluations are time-consuming, requiring the involvement of experts. In this study, we present application results by local experts in relation to visualizing positive and negative effects of management initiatives and different management alternatives. The InSAT provided clear insights into the sustainability of management initiatives.
Several experts shared their perceptions in terms of assessing the sustainability of different management options. The ICZM planning, the SAF issue identification, and the system assessment phase include the intensive interaction and involvement of stakeholders. Initial tasks include the development of potential management options and scenarios. Later, the focus is shifted towards comparing and discussing alternative options and choosing the most suitable one. Therefore, InSAT indicators could serve as early warning signals to discuss and avoid possible problems in the future. After the implementation of management initiatives, InSAT assessment allows for an assessment of the success of measures following the implementation of SAF steps. The InSAT is an important tool for implementing ICZM in practice. We have acknowledged in previous publications that stakeholder participation in the management process plays an important role and that, as such, it is vital to involve stakeholders from the very beginning for a higher process success rate [
30]. In fact, stakeholders are helpful in reviewing and discussing relevant problems, issues, and further planning of future management options.
The assessments conducted within the main aim of this research demonstrated different ways in which the InSAT could be used to support integrated approaches, such as ICZM, MSP, and land/urban planning (
Figure 9). An integrated approach provides a means with which to draw together information from individual indicators; however, the reliability of its results relies on the suitability of selected indicators. By using an integrated evaluation method based on a sustainable indicator system of the coastal region, a fuller view of the coastal zone development process towards sustainability can be clearly achieved. The approach is effective, operational, and reasonable if the selected indicators appropriately reflect the status of the study region.
To integrate the sustainability criteria into a management process effectively, a comprehensive analysis is needed to ensure their incorporation within the strategic management initiative goals. This methodology can be a tool for the improvement of projects or initiatives when questioning their sustainability, allowing for the identification of their weaknesses and raising awareness about the aspects that make practices efficient from a sustainability point of view (economics, social well-being, environmental quality, and governance). Thus, it is possible to learn lessons and identify aspects in which practices can be improved and made more widely sustainable in each of the three categories assessed.