The Effects of Natural Disasters on Social Trust: Evidence from South Korea
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Key Variables and Data
3.1. Social Trust
3.2. Natural Disasters
3.3. Other Explanatory Variables
4. Empirical Models and Results
4.1. Empirical Models
- : The natural logarithm variable of [income +1]
- : The natural logarithm variable of [housing price i + 1]
- : The ratio of people aged 20–39 to those aged over 65
- : The natural logarithm variable of population
- : Financial independence rate
- : Year dummy variables
4.2. Regression Results
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
- An increase in cumulative total disaster damage costs per capita is associated with an increase in social trust levels.
- In the cases of heavy rain, heavy snow and strong winds and waves, an increase in cumulative damage costs per capita is associated with an increase in social trust levels.
- In the case of typhoons, an increase in cumulative damage costs per capita is associated with a decrease in social trust levels.
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Year | Obs. | Mean | Std. Dev. |
---|---|---|---|
2014 | 4258 | 3.023 | 0.951 |
2015 | 4258 | 3.194 | 0.877 |
2016 | 4258 | 2.409 | 0.876 |
Values | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Average across the Three Years |
---|---|---|---|---|
5: Very reliable | 4.34% | 0.89% | 0.63% | 1.95% |
4: Reliable | 29.85% | 43.00% | 7.61% | 26.82% |
3: Neutral | 33.02% | 35.09% | 40.61% | 36.24% |
2: Unreliable | 29.29% | 16.65% | 34.36% | 26.77% |
1: Very unreliable | 3.05% | 4.37% | 16.79% | 8.07% |
Disasters | Private Properties | Public Facilities | Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unit | 1000$ | % | 1000$ | % | 1000$ |
A | C/A × 100 | B | B/C × 100 | C = A + B | |
Total | 23,014.3 | 30.78 | 90,155.3 | 69.22 | 113,169.7 |
Heavy Rains | 5228.7 | 24.98 | 83,639.0 | 75.05 | 88,867.7 |
Heavy Snows | 15,574.3 | 95.95 | 1160.0 | 4.05 | 16,734.0 |
Typhoons | 1151.0 | 16.89 | 4856.7 | 83.12 | 6007.3 |
Strong Winds and Waves | 1060.7 | 68.00 | 500.0 | 32.40 | 1560.3 |
Variables | Obs. | Mean | S. E. | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|
Social Trust (S_T) | 12,687 | 2.87 | 0.96 | The survey conducted by KIPF |
Cumulative Damage Costs per Capita ($) | ||||
Total (T_D) | 12,687 | 68.33 | 139.55 | Yearbook of Disasters published by the NEMA |
Heavy Rains (H_Rain) | 12,687 | 33.23 | 100.83 | |
Typhoons (Typh) | 12,687 | 27.49 | 72.28 | |
Heavy Snows (H_Snow) | 12,687 | 5.68 | 17.31 | |
Strong Winds and Waves (St_WW) | 12,687 | 1.92 | 13.29 | |
Personal Income ($) (INC) | 12,687 | 2488 | 2974 | The survey conducted by KIPF |
Housing Values (H_V) | 12,687 | 138,678 | 208,474 | The survey conducted by KIPF |
The Ratio of People Aged 20–39 to Those Aged Over 65 (%) (Y_ORatio) | 12,687 | 2.39 | 0.98 | Resident registration demographics, MOI |
Population (POP) | 12,687 | 390,462 | 270,479 | Resident registration demographics, MOI |
Financial Independence Rate (%) (Fin_Indp_Rate) | 12,687 | 32.86 | 13.99 | Local finance open system, MOI |
Models | (1) FE | (2) FE | (3) RE Ordered Probit | (4) RE Ordered Probit |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dependent Variables | S_T | S_T | S_T | S_T |
ln[T_D] t − 1 | 0.149 *** | 0.190 *** | ||
(0.042) | (0.053) | |||
ln[H_Rain] t − 1 | 0.177 *** | 0.226 *** | ||
(0.042) | (0.053) | |||
ln[H_Snow] t − 1 | 0.291 *** | 0.353 *** | ||
(0.056) | (0.068) | |||
ln[Typ] t − 1 | −0.582 *** | −0.789 *** | ||
(0.105) | (0.156) | |||
ln[St_WW] t − 1 | 0.599 *** | 0.765 *** | ||
(0.132) | (0.166) | |||
ln[INC] t − 1 | −0.007 | −0.007 | −0.010 | −0.010 |
(0.014) | (0.014) | (0.018) | (0.018) | |
ln[H_V] t − 1 | −0.011 ** | −0.011 ** | −0.014 ** | −0.014 ** |
(0.005) | (0.005) | (0.007) | (0.007) | |
Y_ORatio t − 1 | 0.451 *** | 0.293 * | 0.589 *** | 0.390 * |
(0.163) | (0.165) | (0.205) | (0.209) | |
Fin_Ind_Rate t − 1 | 0.013 *** | 0.013 *** | 0.015 ** | 0.015 ** |
(0.005) | (0.005) | (0.006) | (0.006) | |
ln[POP] t − 1 | −0.221 | −0.163 | −0.328 | −0.252 |
(0.510) | (0.517) | (0.631) | (0.644) | |
2015 dummy | 0.238 *** | 0.196 *** | 0.279 *** | 0.228 *** |
(0.031) | (0.032) | (0.039) | (0.040) | |
2016 dummy | −0.488 *** | −0.553 *** | −0.605 *** | −0.688 *** |
(0.049) | (0.050) | (0.061) | (0.064) | |
Constant | 3.978 | 4.196 | ||
(6.207) | (6.315) | |||
Cut1 | −0.753 *** | −0.374 | ||
(0.250) | (0.254) | |||
Cut2 | 0.390 | 0.775 *** | ||
(0.250) | (0.254) | |||
Cut3 | 1.481 *** | 1.871 *** | ||
(0.250) | (0.254) | |||
Cut4 | 3.172 *** | 3.566 *** | ||
−0.253 | (0.257) | |||
Obs. | 12,687 | 12,687 | 12,687 | 12,687 |
R-squared or Pseudo R-squared | 0.194 | 0.200 | 0.054 | 0.057 |
Models | (1) RE Probit | (2) RE Probit | (3) RE Probit | (4) RE Probit |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dependent Variables | Binary Variable of S_T | Binary Variable of S_T | Binary Variable of S_T | Binary Variable of S_T |
RE Probit Estimation | RE Probit Estimation | Marginal Effects | Marginal Effects | |
ln[T_D] t − 1 | 0.418 *** | 0.116 *** | ||
(0.083) | (0.023) | |||
ln[H_Rain] t − 1 | 0.386 *** | 0.107 *** | ||
(0.083) | (0.023) | |||
ln[H_Snow] t − 1 | 0.336 *** | 0.093 *** | ||
(0.091) | (0.025) | |||
ln[Typ] t − 1 | −0.332 | −0.092 | ||
(0.214) | (0.059) | |||
ln[St_WW] t − 1 | 0.646 *** | 0.179 *** | ||
(0.238) | (0.066) | |||
ln[INC] t − 1 | −0.007 | −0.008 | −0.002 | −0.002 |
(0.023) | (0.023) | 0.006 | (0.006) | |
ln[H_V] | −0.017 * | −0.016 * | −0.005 * | −0.004 * |
(0.010) | (0.010) | 0.003 | (0.003) | |
Y_ORatio t − 1 | 0.914 *** | 0.705 ** | 0.254 *** | 0.196 *** |
(0.310) | (0.315) | 0.086 | (0.087) | |
Fin_Ind_Rate t − 1 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
(0.008) | (0.008) | 0.002 | (0.002) | |
ln[POP] t − 1 | −0.433 | −0.437 | −0.120 | −0.121 |
(0.960) | (0.994) | 0.267 | (0.276) | |
2015 dummy | 0.383 *** | 0.338 *** | 0.106 *** | 0.094 *** |
(0.053) | (0.055) | (0.015) | (0.015) | |
2016 dummy | −0.864 *** | −0.947 *** | −0.240 *** | −0.263 *** |
(0.089) | (0.094) | (0.025) | (0.026) | |
Constant | −0.862 *** | −1.275 *** | ||
(0.328) | (0.339) | |||
Obs. | 12,687 | 12,687 | 12,687 | 12,687 |
Pseudo R-squared | 0.115 | 0.118 |
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Kang, S.H.; Skidmore, M. The Effects of Natural Disasters on Social Trust: Evidence from South Korea. Sustainability 2018, 10, 2973. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10092973
Kang SH, Skidmore M. The Effects of Natural Disasters on Social Trust: Evidence from South Korea. Sustainability. 2018; 10(9):2973. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10092973
Chicago/Turabian StyleKang, Sung Hoon, and Mark Skidmore. 2018. "The Effects of Natural Disasters on Social Trust: Evidence from South Korea" Sustainability 10, no. 9: 2973. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10092973
APA StyleKang, S. H., & Skidmore, M. (2018). The Effects of Natural Disasters on Social Trust: Evidence from South Korea. Sustainability, 10(9), 2973. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10092973