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Sustainability 2018, 10(6), 2056; https://doi.org/10.3390/su10062056

Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

1
Graduate School of Life and Environmental Science, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan
2
Faculty of Life and Environmental Science, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki 305-8572, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 14 May 2018 / Revised: 10 June 2018 / Accepted: 13 June 2018 / Published: 17 June 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Spatial Analysis of Urbanization towards Urban Sustainability)
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Abstract

Simulating future land use/cover changes is of great importance for urban planners and decision-makers, especially in metropolitan areas, to maintain a sustainable environment. This study examines the changes in land use/cover in the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) from 2007 to 2017 as a first step in using supervised classification. Second, based on the map results, we predicted the expected patterns of change in 2027 and 2037 by employing a hybrid model composed of cellular automata and the Markov model. The next step was to decide the model inputs consisting of the modeling variables affecting the distribution of land use/cover in the study area, for instance distance to central business district (CBD) and distance to railways, in addition to the classified maps of 2007 and 2017. Finally, we considered three scenarios for simulating land use/cover changes: spontaneous, sub-region development, and green space improvement. Simulation results show varied patterns of change according to the different scenarios. The sub-region development scenario is the most promising because it balances between urban areas, resources, and green spaces. This study provides significant insight for planners about change trends in the TMA and future challenges that might be encountered to maintain a sustainable region. View Full-Text
Keywords: scenarios simulation; sustainable development; CA-Markov model; geographical information system; remote sensing scenarios simulation; sustainable development; CA-Markov model; geographical information system; remote sensing
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Wang, R.; Derdouri, A.; Murayama, Y. Spatiotemporal Simulation of Future Land Use/Cover Change Scenarios in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. Sustainability 2018, 10, 2056.

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