Next Article in Journal
Personality Traits and Positive Resources of Workers for Sustainable Development: Is Emotional Intelligence a Mediator for Optimism and Hope?
Previous Article in Journal
ʻĀina Momona, Honua Au Loli—Productive Lands, Changing World: Using the Hawaiian Footprint to Inform Biocultural Restoration and Future Sustainability in Hawai‘i
Article Menu
Issue 10 (October) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle

Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios

1
Department of Petroleum Geosciences, Faculty of Science, Delzyan Campus, Soran University, Soran 44008, Iraq
2
Centre for Landscape and Climate Research (CLCR), School of Geography, Geology and the Environment, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE17RH, UK
3
National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE17RH, UK
4
Scientific Research Centre, Delzyan Campus, Soran University, Soran 44008, Iraq
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2018, 10(10), 3421; https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103421
Received: 28 August 2018 / Revised: 14 September 2018 / Accepted: 15 September 2018 / Published: 25 September 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainable Urban and Rural Development)
  |  
PDF [3782 KB, uploaded 25 September 2018]
  |  

Abstract

Multi-temporal Landsat images from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) acquired in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008 and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) from 2017, are used for analysing and predicting the spatio-temporal distributions of land use/land cover (LULC) categories in the Halgurd-Sakran Core Zone (HSCZ) of the National Park in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The aim of this article was to explore the LULC dynamics in the HSCZ to assess where LULC changes are expected to occur under two different business-as-usual (BAU) assumptions. Two scenarios have been assumed in the present study. The first scenario, addresses the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 1993–1998–2003 has continued until 2023 under continuing the United Nations (UN) sanctions against Iraq and particularly Kurdistan region, which extended from 1990 to 2003. Whereas, the second scenario represents the BAU assumption to show what would happen if the past trend in 2003–2008–2017 has to continue until 2023, viz. after the end of UN sanctions. Future land use changes are simulated to the year 2023 using a Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain model under two different scenarios (Iraq under siege and Iraq after siege). Four LULC classes were classified from Landsat using Random Forest (RF). Their accuracy was evaluated using κ and overall accuracy. The CA-Markov chain method in TerrSet is applied based on the past trends of the land use changes from 1993 to 1998 for the first scenario and from 2003 to 2008 for the second scenario. Based on this model, predicted land use maps for the 2023 are generated. Changes between two BAU scenarios under two different conditions have been quantitatively as well as spatially analysed. Overall, the results suggest a trend towards stable and homogeneous areas in the next 6 years as shown in the second scenario. This situation will have positive implication on the park. View Full-Text
Keywords: land change modeller; business-as-usual scenario; Halgurd-Sakran National Park; CA-Markov module; modelling LULC change land change modeller; business-as-usual scenario; Halgurd-Sakran National Park; CA-Markov module; modelling LULC change
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
SciFeed

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Hamad, R.; Balzter, H.; Kolo, K. Predicting Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using a CA-Markov Model under Two Different Scenarios. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3421.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Sustainability EISSN 2071-1050 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top