Investigating the Future of Ultrafast Charging: A Choice Experiment in the Netherlands
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- To investigate the feasibility of ultrafast charging of EVs in the Netherlands following a user perspective.
- To identify the quantitative influence of key factors (e.g., pricing, availability) on the charging choices of EV drivers in the Netherlands.
- To investigate the sensitivity of charging type choices to potential attribute changes in future scenarios with the use of mixed logit models.
2. Data Collection, Preparation and Description
2.1. Data Collection
2.2. Data Preparation
2.3. Descriptive Statistics
3. Model Estimation Results
3.1. Interpretation of the Mixed Logit Models
3.2. Model Application and Sensitivity Analysis
4. Discussion
4.1. Interpretation of Results
4.2. Placing Results in a Broader Perspective
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A. Survey Questionnaire
- 4 days per week or more
- 1–3 days per week
- 1–3 days per month
- 6–11 days per year
- 1–5 days per year
- <1 day per year
- Never (will be sent to end of survey)
- Full electric vehicle (1)
- Hybrid (2)
- Fuel cell electric vehicle (3)
- Toyota Prius (1)
- Mitsubishi Outlander (2)
- Volkswagen Golf GTE (3)
- Volkswagen Passat GTE (4)
- Opel Ampera Hybride (5)
- Audi A3 e-tron (6)
- Other, (7) _____
- Nissan Leaf (4)
- Hyundai IONIQ (5)
- Volkswagen e-Golf (6)
- Tesla Model 3 (7)
- Tesla Model S (8)
- Tesla Model X (9)
- Renault Zoe (10)
- BMW i3 (11)
- Jaguar I-PACE (12)
- Hyundai Kona (13)
- Kia e-Niro (14)
- Opel Ampera-e (15)
- Other (16) ____
- No, business lease
- No, private lease
- Yes
- No, business car sharing
- No, private car sharing
- Other, ________
- Private trips
- Commuting
- Business (e.g., trip to client or customer)
- Bestel/logistiek
- Taxi
- Other, ____
- Yes
- No
- Yes, 1 other car
- Yes, 2 other cars
- Yes, 3 or more other cars
- No
- (1)
- Destination charging (slow charging): you charge 100 km of range in 4 h. Usually on the street (curbside), at work, or for example at a sportsclub.
- (2)
- Fast charging: you charge 100 km of range in 30 min. You find these chargers along the highway, or at several locations like Van der Valk hotels.
- (3)
- Ultrafast charging: you charge 100 km in less than 3 min. More and more of these chargers are installed in the Netherlands in public areas, usually at locations similar to those of fast charging.
4 Days Per | 1–3 Days | 1–3 Days | 6–11 Days | <1 Day | Never | |
Week or More | Per Week | Per Month | per Year | Per Year | ||
At work | o | o | o | o | o | o |
At a supermarket or shopping mall | o | o | o | o | o | o |
At sportclubs, fitness or comparable | o | o | o | o | o | o |
On the street (curbside) | o | o | o | o | o | o |
- 4 days per week or more
- 1–3 days per week
- 1–3 days per month
- 6–11 days per year
- 1–5 days per year
- <1 day per year
- Never
- Yes
- No
- Yes
- No
- 4 days per week or more
- 1–3 days per week
- 1–3 days per month
- 6–11 days per year
- 1–5 days per year
- <1 day per year
- Never
- My car cannot fast charge
- Other, ______________________________________________________________________
- My range was not sufficient to complete my trip, so I need to fast charge along the way.
- The charging point I wanted to use was occupied, malfunctioning or inoperative (buiten werking).
- My visit to a certain location was too short to charge (<2 h), so I needed fast charging.
- I simply prefer fast charging over slow charging.
- There is no charging point at my destination.
- It is cheap.
- The charging speed is high.
- I use fast charging if I have time left and I see a possibility of fast charging.
- I do not have a charging point close to my home.
- Other, _______________________________________________________________________
Totally | Disagree | Neither Agree | Agree | Totally | |
Disagree | nor Disagree | Agree | |||
There are enough charging points | o | o | o | o | o |
The speed of charging points is high enough | o | o | o | o | o |
The information on prices of charging points is enough | o | o | o | o | o |
The information on availability of charging points is enough | o | o | o | o | o |
Very | Unimportant | Neutral | Important | Very | |
Unimportant | Important | ||||
The number of charging points | o | o | o | o | o |
Speed of charging | o | o | o | o | o |
Information on prices of charging points | o | o | o | o | o |
Information on availability of charging points | o | o | o | o | o |
Totally | Disagree | Neither Agree | Agree | Totally | |
Disagree | nor Disagree | Agree | |||
… travel sustainably. | o | o | o | o | o |
… minimise my travel costs. | o | o | o | o | o |
… travel comfortably. | o | o | o | o | o |
… minimise my travel time. | o | o | o | o | o |
… be up to date with the newest technologies. | o | o | o | o | o |
- 0–50 km
- 50–100 km
- 100–150 km
- 150–250 km
- More than 250 m
- You will charge (…) kilometres (Answer category used in Q24)
- You pay for all costs yourself.
What is your age? | What is your highest education? | What is your annual gross income? |
____ years (dropdown menu) | o No education | o <12.500 |
What is your gender? | o Primary education | o 12.500–26.200 |
o Male | o VMBO/MAVO | o 26.201–38.800 |
o Female | o MBO | o 38.801–65.000 |
o Other | o HAVO/VWO | o 65.001–77.500 |
What is your postal code? (e.g., 1234AB) | o HBO/WO Bachelor | o >77.500 |
________ ____ (open question) | o WO Master | o I don’t know |
o PhD/doctorate |
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Set | Ultrafast Charging | Fast Charging | Destination Charging | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Price | Facilities | Availability | Detour | Price | Facilities | Availability | Detour | Price | Facilities | Availability | Detour | |
1 | 11.76 | Shopping mall | Uncertain | No detour | 11.76 | Small shop or cafe | Certain | No detour | 5 | Waiting room | Certain | Detour |
1 | 8.49 | Waiting room | Certain | Detour | 5 | Small shop or cafe | Certain | No detour | 15.25 | Shopping mall | Uncertain | Detour |
1 | 8.49 | None | Uncertain | Detour | 15.25 | Shopping mall | Uncertain | No detour | 11.76 | Small shop or cafe | Certain | Detour |
1 | 15.25 | None | Certain | Detour | 11.76 | Shopping mall | Certain | Detour | 8.49 | Small shop or cafe | Uncertain | No detour |
2 | 15.25 | Waiting room | Certain | No detour | 5 | Small shop or cafe | Uncertain | Detour | 11.76 | None | Certain | Detour |
2 | 8.49 | None | Certain | No detour | 15.25 | Waiting room | Uncertain | Detour | 5 | Shopping mall | Certain | No detour |
2 | 5 | Small shop or cafe | Certain | No detour | 8.49 | Waiting room | Uncertain | Detour | 15.25 | None | Uncertain | Detour |
2 | 8.49 | Shopping mall | Certain | Detour | 5 | None | Uncertain | Detour | 8.49 | Small shop or cafe | Uncertain | No detour |
3 | 15.25 | None | Certain | Detour | 11.76 | Shopping mall | Uncertain | Detour | 8.49 | Waiting room | Certain | No detour |
3 | 11.76 | Waiting room | Uncertain | No detour | 8.49 | None | Uncertain | No detour | 15.25 | Shopping mall | Certain | Detour |
3 | 11.76 | Small shop or cafe | Uncertain | Detour | 5 | Shopping mall | Uncertain | Detour | 15.25 | Waiting room | Certain | No detour |
3 | 8.49 | Shopping mall | Uncertain | No detour | 5 | Waiting room | Certain | No detour | 11.76 | Small shop or cafe | Certain | Detour |
4 | 5 | Waiting room | Uncertain | Detour | 15.25 | Small shop or cafe | Uncertain | Detour | 8.49 | None | Certain | No detour |
4 | 5 | None | Uncertain | No detour | 8.49 | Small shop or cafe | Certain | Detour | 11.76 | Waiting room | Uncertain | Detour |
4 | 8.49 | Shopping mall | Certain | Detour | 5 | None | Uncertain | Detour | 11.76 | Waiting room | Uncertain | No detour |
4 | 11.76 | None | Certain | No detour | 8.49 | Small shop or cafe | Uncertain | Detour | 5 | Shopping mall | Certain | No detour |
Frequency of EV Driving (%) | Type of EV Driver (%) | Gender (%) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
<1 day per year | 0.6 | Ownership | 33.8 | Male | 90.5 |
1–5 days per year | 0.6 | Private lease | 0.6 | Female | 9.5 |
6–11 days per year | 0.6 | Business lease | 54.3 | ||
1–3 days per month | 3.0 | Private car sharing | 0.6 | ||
1–3 days per week | 10.7 | Business car sharing | 6.5 | ||
4 or more days per week | 84.5 | Other | 6.7 |
Sample Composition | Choice | p-Value for Variable | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variable | Segment | Freq (%) | Slow | Fast | Ultra | No | |
Age | 23–30 years | 13.1 | 39.8 | 15.9 | 40.9 | 3.4 | 0.001 (F = 5.215; df = 3) |
31–40 years | 19.0 | 37.5 | 28.1 | 32.8 | 1.6 | ||
41–50 years | 35.1 | 27.5 | 33.9 | 34.3 | 4.2 | ||
51–60 years | 23.8 | 25.0 | 37.5 | 35.0 | 2.5 | ||
61–70 years | 6.5 | 29.5 | 40.9 | 25.0 | 4.5 | ||
Unknown | 2.4 | 31.3 | 31.3 | 31.3 | 6.3 | ||
Importance of | Neutral | 6.0 | 37.5 | 40.0 | 12.5 | 10.0 | 0.014 (Cramer’s V = 0.109) |
driving comfort | Important | 44.5 | 29.4 | 33.1 | 33.8 | 3.7 | |
Very important | 49.6 | 30.9 | 29.4 | 37.5 | 2.1 | ||
Degree of urban density | Extremely urbanised | 16.7 | 43.8 | 23.2 | 30.4 | 2.7 | 0.002 (Cramer’s V = 0.133) |
Strongly urbanised | 26.8 | 26.1 | 42.2 | 30.6 | 1.1 | ||
Moderately urbanised | 14.9 | 26.0 | 27.0 | 44.0 | 3.0 | ||
Hardly urbanised | 20.8 | 34.3 | 24.3 | 35.7 | 5.7 | ||
Not urbanised | 14.9 | 22.0 | 36.0 | 38.0 | 4.0 | ||
Unknown | 6.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 25.0 | 5.0 |
Mixed Logit (1) | Mixed Logit (2) | Mixed Logit (Final Model) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variable | Value | T-Statistic | Value | T-Statistic | Value | T-Statistic | |
ASC (S) | 3.78 | 7.43 | 3.49 | 6.94 | 2.19 | 5.82 | |
ASC (F) | 2.48 | 8.03 | 1.33 | 2.95 | 1.26 | 2.65 | |
ASC (U) | 3.6 | 3.24 | 1.94 | 1.33 * | 1.06 | 0.91 ** | |
ASC (no preference) | 0 | Fixed * | 0 | Fixed * | 0 | Fixed * | |
Certainty of charging point availability (S) | 0.863 | 4.16 | 0.878 | 4.47 | 0.797 | 3.86 | |
Certainty of charging point availability (F) | 1.05 | 5.4 | 1.03 | 5.25 | 1.42 | 6.27 | |
Certainty of charging point availability (U) | − 1.51 | −6.62 | −1.58 | −6.81 | −1.47 | −6.43 | |
Not having to make a detour (U) | −1.17 | −5.65 | −1.15 | −5.5 | −1.14 | −5.56 | |
Price (S, F and U) | −0.676 | -4.61 | −0.0651 | −4.42 | −0.0569 | −3.83 | |
Proximity to shopping area (S) | 0.531 | 2.07 | 0.739 | 2.99 | 1.03 | 3.45 | |
Proximity to small shop/cafe (S) | −1.48 | −2.99 | −1.45 | −2.83 | |||
No facilities nearby (S) | 0.973 | 4.69 | |||||
No facilities nearby (F) | 1.27 | 4.25 | |||||
No facilities nearby (S, F and U) | 0.557 | 4.65 | 0.684 | 6.41 | |||
Current frequency of using fast charging (F) | 0.299 | 3.9 | 0.344 | 4.41 | |||
Income level (S) | −0.000135 | −2.44 | |||||
Income level (F) | −0.000138 | −2.41 | |||||
Income level (U) | −0.000151 | −2.48 | |||||
Access to private parking (S) | |||||||
Importance of comfort (U) | 0.495 | 2.61 | 0.52 | 2.74 | |||
Age (S, F and U) | −0.0359 | −3.85 | |||||
Age (S) | −0.0351 | −3.71 | |||||
Age (U) | −0.0252 | −2.14 | |||||
Education level (U) | 0.25 | 2.39 | 0.224 | 2.3 | 0.236 | 2.56 | |
Importance of travel time (U) | 0.235 | 2.06 | |||||
Sigma (S) | 0.316 | 1.13 ** | −0.271 | −0.95 ** | −0.472 | −1.96 ** | |
Sigma (F) | −0.0869 | −0.44 ** | 0.0267 | 0.86 ** | 0.0409 | 0.73 ** | |
Sigma (U) | 0.648 | 4.13 | 0.559 | 2.82 | 0.548 | 2.74 | |
Model statistics | |||||||
Null loglikelihood | −909.409 | −909.409 | −909.409 | ||||
Final loglikelihood | −704.891 | −703.762 | −689.898 | ||||
: Rho-squared | 0.225 | 0.226 | 0.241 |
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Share and Cite
ten Have, S.Y.; Gkiotsalitis, K.; Geurs, K.T. Investigating the Future of Ultrafast Charging: A Choice Experiment in the Netherlands. World Electr. Veh. J. 2020, 11, 70. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj11040070
ten Have SY, Gkiotsalitis K, Geurs KT. Investigating the Future of Ultrafast Charging: A Choice Experiment in the Netherlands. World Electric Vehicle Journal. 2020; 11(4):70. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj11040070
Chicago/Turabian Styleten Have, Simone Y., Konstantinos Gkiotsalitis, and Karst T. Geurs. 2020. "Investigating the Future of Ultrafast Charging: A Choice Experiment in the Netherlands" World Electric Vehicle Journal 11, no. 4: 70. https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj11040070