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Article

Identifying Spanish Areas at More Risk of Monthly BTV Transmission with a Basic Reproduction Number Approach

1
VISAVET Health Surveillance Centre, Animal Health Department, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Complutense University of Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
2
Department of Animal Pathology (Animal Health), AgriFood Institute of Aragón IA2, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Zaragoza, 50013 Zaragoza, Spain
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Viruses 2020, 12(10), 1158; https://doi.org/10.3390/v12101158
Received: 10 September 2020 / Revised: 8 October 2020 / Accepted: 12 October 2020 / Published: 13 October 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Bluetongue Virus (BTV))
Bluetongue virus (BTV) causes a disease that is endemic in Spain and its two major biological vector species, C. imicola and the Obsoletus complex species, differ greatly in their ecology and distribution. Understanding the seasonality of BTV transmission in risk areas is key to improving surveillance and control programs, as well as to better understand the pathogen transmission networks between wildlife and livestock. Here, monthly risk transmission maps were generated using risk categories based on well-known BTV R0 equations and predicted abundances of the two most relevant vectors in Spain. Previously, Culicoides spp. predicted abundances in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands were obtained using remote sensing data and random forest machine learning algorithm. Risk transmission maps were externally assessed with the estimated date of infection of BTV-1 and BTV-4 historical outbreaks. Our results highlight the differences in risk transmission during April-October, June-August being the period with higher R0 values. Likewise, a natural barrier has been identified between northern and central-southern areas at risk that may hamper BTV spread between them. Our results can be relevant to implement risk-based interventions for the prevention, control and surveillance of BTV and other diseases shared between livestock and wildlife host populations. View Full-Text
Keywords: bluetongue virus; arbovirus; Culicoides; blood-feeding vector; epidemiology; modeling; risk analysis; livestock; basic reproduction number; machine learning bluetongue virus; arbovirus; Culicoides; blood-feeding vector; epidemiology; modeling; risk analysis; livestock; basic reproduction number; machine learning
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MDPI and ACS Style

Aguilar-Vega, C.; Bosch, J.; Fernández-Carrión, E.; Lucientes, J.; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J.M. Identifying Spanish Areas at More Risk of Monthly BTV Transmission with a Basic Reproduction Number Approach. Viruses 2020, 12, 1158. https://doi.org/10.3390/v12101158

AMA Style

Aguilar-Vega C, Bosch J, Fernández-Carrión E, Lucientes J, Sánchez-Vizcaíno JM. Identifying Spanish Areas at More Risk of Monthly BTV Transmission with a Basic Reproduction Number Approach. Viruses. 2020; 12(10):1158. https://doi.org/10.3390/v12101158

Chicago/Turabian Style

Aguilar-Vega, Cecilia, Jaime Bosch, Eduardo Fernández-Carrión, Javier Lucientes, and José M. Sánchez-Vizcaíno 2020. "Identifying Spanish Areas at More Risk of Monthly BTV Transmission with a Basic Reproduction Number Approach" Viruses 12, no. 10: 1158. https://doi.org/10.3390/v12101158

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