Next Article in Journal
Influences of Extreme Weather Conditions on the Carbon Cycles of Bamboo and Tea Ecosystems
Next Article in Special Issue
Recent Trends in Large Hardwoods in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Previous Article in Journal
Comparison of Ecosystem Services from Mixed and Monospecific Forests in Southwest Germany: A Survey on Public Perception
Previous Article in Special Issue
Short-Term Vegetation Responses to Invasive Shrub Control Techniques for Amur Honeysuckle (Lonicera maackii [Rupr.] Herder)
Article Menu
Issue 10 (October) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Forests 2018, 9(10), 628;

The Potential Distribution of Tree Species in Three Periods of Time under a Climate Change Scenario

División de Estudios de Postgrado-Instituto de Estudios Ambientales, Universidad de la Sierra Juárez, Avenida Universidad S/N, Ixtlán de Juárez, 68725 Oaxaca, México
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 1 September 2018 / Revised: 9 October 2018 / Accepted: 9 October 2018 / Published: 11 October 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hardwood Reforestation and Restoration)
Full-Text   |   PDF [6902 KB, uploaded 16 October 2018]   |  


Species distribution models have become some of the most important tools for the assessment of the impact of climatic change, and human activity, and for the detection of failure in silvicultural or conservation management plans. In this study, we modeled the potential distribution of 13 tree species of temperate forests distributed in the Mexican state Durango in the Sierra Madre Occidental, for three periods of time. Models were constructed for each period of time using 19 climate variables from the MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy algorithm) modelling algorithm. Those constructed for the future used a severe climate change scenario. When comparing the potential areas of the periods, some species such as Pinus durangensis (Martínez), Pinus teocote (Schiede ex Schltdl. & Cham.) and Quercus crassifolia (Bonpl.) showed no drastic changes. Rather, the models projected a slight reduction, displacement or fragmentation in the potential area of Pinus arizonica (Engelm.), P. cembroides (Zucc), P. engelmanni (Carr), P. leiophylla (Schl), Quercus arizonica (Sarg), Q. magnolifolia (Née) and Q. sideroxila (Humb. & Bonpl.) in the future period. Thus, establishing conservation and reforestation strategies in the medium and long term could guarantee a wide distribution of these species in the future. View Full-Text
Keywords: Bioclimatic niche; Durango; Mexican tree species; MaxEnt; non-parametric correlation Bioclimatic niche; Durango; Mexican tree species; MaxEnt; non-parametric correlation

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Antúnez, P.; Suárez-Mota, M.E.; Valenzuela-Encinas, C.; Ruiz-Aquino, F. The Potential Distribution of Tree Species in Three Periods of Time under a Climate Change Scenario. Forests 2018, 9, 628.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics



[Return to top]
Forests EISSN 1999-4907 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top