Differences in Human versus Lightning Fires between Urban and Rural Areas of the Boreal Forest in Interior Alaska
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Geospatial Datasets
2.3. Geospatial and Quantitative Analysis
2.3.1. Differences in Temporal Trends between Urban and Rural Interior Alaska
2.3.2. Differences in the Influences of Human Proximity between Urban and Rural Interior Alaska
2.3.3. Differences in Fire Seasonality and Duration
3. Results
3.1. Differences in Temporal Trends between Urban and Rural Interior Alaska
3.2. Differences in the Influences of Human Proximity between Urban and Rural Interior Alaska
3.3. Differences in Fire Seasonality and Duratio
4. Discussion
4.1. Differences in Temporal Trends between Urban and Rural Interior Alaska
4.2. Differences in the Influences of Human Proximity between Urban and Rural Interior Alaska
4.3. Differences in Fire Seasonality and Duration
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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(a) Fairbanks | |||||||||||
Odds Ratio of Fire Occurrence | N | Area Burned Trends | |||||||||
1943–2016 | b | SE | z | Odds Ratio | b | SE | t | Yearly Change | |||
Both | 0.074 | 0.021 | 3.55 | 1.077 | *** | 55 | 0.006 | 0.006 | 0.975 | 1.3% | |
Human | 0.052 | 0.015 | 3.51 | 1.054 | *** | 41 | −0.013 | 0.007 | −1.891 | −3.0% | |
Lightning | 0.066 | 0.017 | 3.91 | 1.068 | *** | 43 | −0.003 | 0.007 | −0.406 | −0.7% | |
1988–2016 | |||||||||||
Both | 0.842 | 0.857 | 0.98 | 2.321 | 28 | 0.019 | 0.020 | 0.957 | 4.5% | ||
Both 1 | NA 1 | 29 | 0.097 | 10.2% | |||||||
Human | 0.189 | 0.094 | 2.00 | 1.208 | * | 24 | 0.007 | 0.025 | 0.274 | 1.6% | |
Human | NA 1 | 29 | 0.065 | 0.031 | 2.123 | 16.1% | * | ||||
Lightning | 0.129 | 0.115 | 1.12 | 1.138 | 27 | 0.000 | 0.023 | −0.001 | 0.0% | ||
Lightning | NA 1 | 29 | 0.024 | 0.029 | 0.821 | 5.7% | |||||
(b) Rural Interior Alaska | |||||||||||
Odds Ratio of Fire Occurrence | N | Area Burned Trend | |||||||||
1943–2016 | b | SE | z | Odds Ratio | b | SE | t | Change | |||
Both | NA 2 | 69 | 0.011 | 0.005 | 2.273 | 2.6% | * | ||||
Human | 0.038 | 0.015 | 2.62 | 1.039 | ** | 49 | −0.008 | 0.006 | −1.286 | −1.7% | |
Lightning | NA 3 | 68 | 0.012 | 0.005 | 2.334 | 2.9% | * | ||||
1988–2016 | |||||||||||
Both | NA 2 | 29 | 0.003 | 0.016 | 0.160 | 0.7% | |||||
Human | 0.056 | 0.093 | 0.60 | 1.057 | 27 | 0.009 | 0.019 | 0.442 | 2.0% | ||
Human | NA 1 | 29 | 0.021 | 0.028 | 0.752 | 4.9% | |||||
Lightning | NA 2 | 29 | −0.004 | 0.019 | −0.204 | −0.9% |
Fairbanks | Rural Int. AK | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1943–2016 | b | SE | t | Yearly Change | b | SE | t | Yearly Change |
Both | 0.011 | 0.001 | 4.468 | 2.5% *** | 0.009 | 0.002 | 5.464 | 2.1% *** |
Human | 0.011 | 0.002 | 6.897 | 2.5% *** | 0.009 | 0.002 | 5.368 | 2.1% *** |
Lightning | 0.011 | 0.002 | 4.387 | 2.5% *** | 0.010 | 0.002 | 4.472 | 2.3% *** |
1988–2016 | ||||||||
Both | −0.010 | 0.003 | −3.457 | −2.3% ** | <−0.001 | 0.006 | −0.029 | −0.0% |
Human | −0.011 | 0.003 | −4.108 | −2.6% *** | <0.001 | 0.003 | −0.010 | −0.0% |
Human Full FMZ | −0.014 | 0.003 | −4.799 | −3.2% *** | −0.004 | 0.004 | −1.045 | −1.0% |
Lightning | −0.004 | 0.010 | −0.406 | −1.0% | <−0.001 | 0.009 | −0.038 | −0.1% |
Region | Cause | Yearly Change | b | SE | z |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Interior Alaska | All | 3.4% | 0.0337 | 0.0003 | 98.72 |
Human | 4.7% | 0.0457 | 0.0008 | 57.70 | |
Lightning | 2.7% | 0.0265 | 0.0004 | 71.73 | |
Fairbanks | All | 5.7% | 0.0557 | 0.0008 | 67.12 |
Human | 6.0% | 0.0580 | 0.0011 | 52.68 | |
Lightning | 4.6% | 0.0445 | 0.0012 | 36.67 | |
Rural | All | 2.4% | 0.0235 | 0.0004 | 63.35 |
Human | 2.7% | 0.0268 | 0.0011 | 23.67 | |
Lightning | 2.4% | 0.0241 | 0.0004 | 62.01 |
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Calef, M.P.; Varvak, A.; McGuire, A.D. Differences in Human versus Lightning Fires between Urban and Rural Areas of the Boreal Forest in Interior Alaska. Forests 2017, 8, 422. https://doi.org/10.3390/f8110422
Calef MP, Varvak A, McGuire AD. Differences in Human versus Lightning Fires between Urban and Rural Areas of the Boreal Forest in Interior Alaska. Forests. 2017; 8(11):422. https://doi.org/10.3390/f8110422
Chicago/Turabian StyleCalef, Monika P., Anna Varvak, and A. David McGuire. 2017. "Differences in Human versus Lightning Fires between Urban and Rural Areas of the Boreal Forest in Interior Alaska" Forests 8, no. 11: 422. https://doi.org/10.3390/f8110422