The Impact of Forest Rents on Ecological Footprints in China: The Moderating Role of Government Effectiveness

Forests serve as the lungs of our planet, yet their mismanagement causes environmental problems and threatens global sustainability. Global forest footprints continue to increase, requiring studies to investigate and provide solutions. This study aims to establish how forest rents and government effectiveness shape forest footprints in China. Specifically, it assesses the impact of forest rents (FRs), fossil fuel consumption (FFC), foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth (GDP), population (POP), and ecological footprints (EFFs) while considering the moderating role of government effectiveness (GEFF). This study used quantile regression, ordinary least squares, and Granger causality tests for a comparative analysis. This study found that forest rents significantly increase ecological footprints, but the impact diminishes at higher quantities, an indication that environmental policies can mitigate their adverse effects. Moreover, GEFF plays a crucial role in reducing EFFs across all quantiles, signifying the relevance of effective governance in achieving sustainability. Again, while FFC and FDI contribute to environmental sustainability, economic growth exacerbates ecological degradation, particularly at higher quantiles. The Granger causality test further indicates that forest rents and government effectiveness drive ecological changes, while population growth exerts a bidirectional influence on sustainability. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers and emphasize the need for robust governance, sustainable forest management, and eco-friendly economic strategies.