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Article

Novel High-Suitability Regions for Oil Palm with Basal Stem Rot Estimations in Indonesia and Malaysia

by
Robert Russell Monteith Paterson
Centre of Biological Engineering, Gualtar Campus, University of Minho, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal
Forests 2025, 16(11), 1669; https://doi.org/10.3390/f16111669
Submission received: 26 August 2025 / Revised: 12 October 2025 / Accepted: 30 October 2025 / Published: 31 October 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Forest Pathogen Detection, Diagnosis and Control)
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Abstract

Palm oil is a significant product, predominantly from Indonesia and Malaysia, and is included in many products. However, oil palm (OP) plantations have been associated with deforestation and destruction of peat soil, tending to increase CO2 in the atmosphere and contribute to climate change. The growth of OP may be affected detrimentally by climate change. Also, OP is susceptible to basal stem rot (BSR) caused by the fungus Ganoderma boninense. Previous CLIMEX-modelled scenarios have indicated decreases in suitable climate for growing OP in the future, and narrative models suggest increases in BSR. However, the climate maps show regions in Malaysia and Indonesia that were previously unsuitable, which have become highly suitable climate (HSC) areas and were previously unreported. These areas include the higher altitudes of (a) the west coast of Sumatra, (b) areas between Sarawak, Sabah, and Kalimantan, (c) the central region of Sulawesi, (d) northern West Papua, (e) and the Titiwangsa Mountains of Peninsular Malaysia. These trends are remarkable per se. The incidence of BSR will likely be low because the palms would experience HSC, making them more resistant to infection. For example, HSC is projected to increase from 0% at present to 95% by 2100, while BSR is projected to increase from 0% at present to 30% over the same time period in Sumatra. In Borneo, HSC is projected to increase from 0% at present to 95% by 2100, while BSR is projected to increase from 0% to 7% over the same time period. Higher CO2 fertilisation may occur which would increase OP vigour again leading to greater resistance to BSR. However, many of the regions may be biodiverse and it would be unreasonable to replace them with plantations and whether these areas would be suitable for growing OP requires careful consideration. This report of increasing areas of HSC for growing OP is unique.

1. Introduction

Palm oil is included in many foodstuffs, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical products. The commodity is used as biofuel. Indonesia, followed by Malaysia, produce by far the most palm oil, although it is also produced in other tropical countries. However, plantation planting may lead to excessive deforestation to clear ground for growing oil palm (OP) [1]. There are large environmental costs from the release of CO2 when peat soil is drained of moisture, leading to increased respiration and potential combustion to enable the planting of OP. This has resulted in a partial prohibition on destroying forests and peat land which is limiting the areas in which OP can be grown. Approximately 4.5 × 104 km2 of available land for new plantations has been identified in Malaysia and Indonesia which could provide 1.3 × 106 tonnes year−1 of sustainable palm oil. However, most of these areas are fragmented and scattered throughout the entire archipelago [2]. Pirker et al. [3] found that suitability is determined primarily by climate conditions and that 1.37 × 107 km2 of land was suitable currently and concentrated in 12 countries. Also, 2.34 × 106 km2 remained when eight criteria were considered that restricted OP development. These did not include the accessibility to plantations where only 18% (i.e., 4.21 × 105 km2) were within 2 km, or the land was unavailable because it was being used for other crops.
Parts of South America and Africa are seen as attractive alternatives in which to grow OP, in part because OP could be produced without deforestation and growth on peat soil [1]. Malaysian organisations have been investing in OP in these continents for decades [4]. More than 4.0 × 106 km2 are suitable for OP in Brazil, although most of this area is covered by tropical forests, especially in the Amazon region [3]. The figure was 3.2 × 105 km2 when rainforests were excluded [1].
In general, climate change will affect tropical crops detrimentally [5]. These effects were projected to occur with coffee, but less consistent results were observed for avocado and cashews [6]. Soy, a direct competitor palm oil, will likely be affected negatively, especially by drought and high temperatures in Ghana [7]. The use of CLIMEX modelling of future suitable climate for growing crops has increased and initial studies with OP, indicated significant reductions in suitable climate for growing OP in Malaysia and Indonesia [8]. Similar modelling indicated variable effects for soy depending on which part of the world was considered [9]. Maize and the common bean were likely affected detrimentally in future scenarios by using CLIMEX modelling [10,11].
Climate change is associated highly with increasing concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere especially from the burning of fossil fuels [1]. In general, planting more trees will sequestrate increased amounts of CO2, thereby reducing CO2 in the atmosphere. Individual OP can sequestrate much more CO2 than other individual oil-producing crops [12], particularly because they are physically much more substantial than, for example, soy and rye. Tropical forests, which are threatened by OP development, will also be subjected to climate change [13]. Forests in Brazil may convert to savanna in the future [14] and it is interesting that OP can be grown on savanna [15]. It may be possible to grow OP on newly created savanna.
The OP grown in many palm-oil-producing countries are vulnerable to climate change. Interestingly, there were areas in Malaysia and Indonesia of unsuitable climate for growing OP at present, which were associated with elevated land, as determined using CLIMEX programming [8].
A long region from the north to south of Sumatra, Indonesia, closely associated with the Bukit Barisan Mountain, had unsuitable climate for OP at present. A large region with unsuitable climate at present was observed, which borders Sarawak, northern Kalimantan, and Sabah, and is located in the approximate area of the Apo Kayan highlands [8]. The mountainous central region of the island of Sulawesi also had a large region of unsuitable climate at present, as did the northern region of West Papua. Finally, a small area in Peninsular Malaysia associated with the Titiwangsa Mountains had unsuitable climate at present [8] (Figure 1).
Many of these regions had a cold stress designation per se for OP growth at present, but there was no hot nor dry stresses [8]. Climate is likely to affect the growth of OP; however, OP diseases will also determine whether plantations are successful.
Basal stem rot (BSR) is the most serious disease of OP in Malaysia and Indonesia and is caused by the basidiomycete fungus Ganoderma boninense [16]. The malady will increase as OP becomes affected detrimentally by unsuitable climate, thereby decreasing the plant’s resistance to the disease [17]. BSR is particularly prevalent in Malaysia and Indonesia. The Indonesian island of Sumatra grows a great deal of OP and has a high incidence of the disease, which is projected to increase in the future [17]. Sarawak and Sabah had lower incidence of BSR at present and in the future [18]. Kalimantan was projected to have lower levels of BSR with Sulawesi and Papua having particularly low incidences [19].
The increases until 2100 of highly suitable climate (HSC) in Malaysia and Indonesia with unsuitable climate at present are determined in the current paper. Estimations of BSR are also provided. This is the first report of such data showing increases in suitable climate over time from unsuitable climate in regions of the two countries under discussion. More OP plantations may be planted in these new HSC regions amid a general decline in future suitable climate for growing OP in many other regions [8], with due care given to protecting the existing flora and fauna.

2. Materials and Methods

The climate maps employed herein are from reference [8] where they were determined by CLIMEX software (Windows Version 3) which had been previously used to assess the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity. The potential distribution model of OP under current and future climate scenarios was developed using CLIMEX in which an eco-physiological model forms the basis of the software. The fitted parameters were applied to novel climates to project the potential range of OP in new regions or climate scenarios. An annual growth index was used to describe the potential for population growth during favourable climate conditions while stress indices (cold, wet, hot, and dry) and interaction stresses (hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry, and cold-wet) describe the probability that the population can survive unfavourable conditions. The Ecoclimatic Index (EI) is scaled from 0 to 100 where establishment is only possible if EI > 0; 1–10 indicates marginal habitats, 10–20 indicates substantial populations can be supported, and >20 indicates that the climate is highly favourable.
The modelling was carried out using the CliMond 10′gridded climate data where (a) average minimum monthly temperature (Tmin), (b) average maximum monthly temperature (Tmax), (c) average monthly precipitation (Ptotal), and (d) relative humidity at 09:00 h (RH09:00) and 15:00 h (RH15:00) were used to represent historical climate (average of the period 1961–1990). The potential future climate in 2030, 2070, and 2100 were characterised using the same five variables as above, based on two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.053 and MIROC-H (Centre for Climate Research, Tokyo, Japan), with the A1B and A2 SRES scenarios. These were available as part of the CliMond dataset. The two GCMs were selected from 23 GCMs for the CliMond dataset based on the (a) temperature, precipitation, mean sea level pressure, and specific humidity variables required for CLIMEX modelling which were available for the two GCMs. The selection was also based on models having small horizontal grid spacing and the performance compared to other GCMs in representing basic aspects of observed climate at a regional scale.
The A1B and A2 climate change scenarios were selected to typify the range of possible climate suitability for OP in 2030, 2070, and 2100. The A1B scenario portrays a balance between the use of fossil and non-fossil resources and the A2 describes a varied world with high population growth but slow economic development and technological change [8].
The Global Biodiversity Information Facility, which is a database of natural history collections from around the world for various species was employed for the global distribution of OP as used in CLIMEX parameter fitting [8]. Information on the global distribution of OP was downloaded and employed in parameter fitting. The global occurrence of OP was used to inform the parameter fitting process for Malaysia and Indonesia which ensures that the parameters reflect the climate of all the regions of the world where OP occurs. A total of 398 records were downloaded but many did not have geographic coordinates or were repetitions and such records were removed from the determinations, leaving 85 records. However, a further 39 records were found in the scientific literature, making a final total of 124 records available for use in the analyses. Each of the parameters was adjusted iteratively until a satisfactory agreement was reached between the potential and known distribution of OP in these areas. The results of the application of these methods are demonstrated in the climate map of Figure 1 for current time, where red indicated HSC and white is unsuitable climate for growing OP.
Southeast Asian distribution data were not used in model development and were reserved for validation of the model [8]. The areas of unsuitable climate in present time were assessed visually from Figure 1. These areas were then compared to the equivalent areas in maps for 2030, 2070 and 2100 and an average percentage was determined from the four maps presented for each year. The data for cold stress were taken from maps in reference [8] and converted into areas of the regions under consideration by visual estimation.
The determination of BSR incidences was by using data on current incidences and a determination of what could be expected in the future using narrative modelling. The scenario assumed that there would be a high level of BSR where the climate was detrimental to the growth of OP as resistance of the OP would be low and vice versa. This has been applied in other papers for OP and its diseases [17,18,19].

3. Results

Figure 2 demonstrates the change in HSC in Sumatra where a small increase to 10% by 2030 can be observed and which was associated with a 1% BSR incidence. HSC increased dramatically by 2070, with BSR increasing to 10%. The data for 2100 were 95% HSC and 30% BSR. Figure 3 indicates the increase in HSC with time in Borneo and the projected change in BSR. There was a small increase in HSC by 2030 and then a dramatic increase by 2070 to 90% HSC in the specific area in Borneo under discussion. The final area was 95% HSC by 2100. The scenario for BSR was one of low levels of the disease initially and then reaching a maximum of 7% by 2100. Figure 4 indicates the increase in HSC in the Sulawesi region under discussion. HSC did not increase until 2070 at which time the value was 15%. This increased to 55% by 2100. BSR remained at zero until 2030 and then increased to 1% and 5% in 2070 and 2100, respectively. In West Papua (Figure 5), the increase in HSC commenced in 2070 to 50% and then to 85% by 2100. BSR reached a maximum value of 8% by 2100. HSC in the region of Peninsular Malaysia increased dramatically by 2030 to 85% which was maintained until 2070 and then decreased to 70% (Figure 6). BSR increased in an approximately direct manner from 0% in 2015 to 30% in 2100. Figure 7 indicates the areas of cold stress within the regions being discussed at present (2015) compared to 2100. Sulawesi had the largest percentage area of cold stress at present of 50% which decreased to 5% in 2100. The area in Sumatra had 20% and 1% cold stress at present and 2100, respectively. West Papua had 15% and 3% cold stress at present and 2100, respectively. The Borneo and Peninsular Malaysia regions both had (a) 5% and (b) 0% in (a) current time and (b) 2100, respectively. The other individual stresses of heat and dryness were absent in these regions.

4. Discussion

Regions in Malaysia and Indonesia which had unsuitable climates for growing OP in 2015 and had increasing HSC after that year are described in this current paper and represent unique and important observations. These areas included a long region from the northwest to southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia, associated closely with the Bukit Barisan Mountains [8]. In addition, a region with similar characteristics was observed corresponding approximately to the Apo Kayan highland region bordering Sarawak, northern Kalimantan and Sabah. The mountainous central region of the island of Sulawesi had the same pattern of climate change, as did the north of West Papua. Peninsular Malaysia had a small area of land associated with the Titiwangsa Mountains that also had increasing HSC from the earlier unsuitable climate (Figure 1, Figure 2, Figure 3, Figure 4, Figure 5 and Figure 6). The areas of the regions where these phenomena were observed and the approximate areas of unsuitable climate for growing OP, are provided in Table 1.
Sulawesi had ca. 60% unsuitable climate in 2015. The relevant unsuitable climate zone to the west of Sumatra covers an area of approximately 30% of the island at present, and Borneo had an area of unsuitable climate similar to that of Sumatra. The area in West Papua was ca. 25% of that of Sumatra, and that of Peninsular Malaysia was approximately 50% of that of West Papua.
There may be less scope for planting new OP in Sulawesi as the increases in HSC were lower than for the other cases considered. The rapid increase in HSC by 2030 in Peninsular Malaysia is unique amongst the regions considered, although the area of land under consideration is small.
There were 2.34 × 106 km2 of suitable land for OP globally after eight limiting factors were applied by Pirker [3], which represents 17% of the total suitable area for OP. Only 18% of this remaining area is under 2 h transportation to the nearest city and there is growing demand for other agricultural commodities which could be planted on this land. It is probable that climate change will limit these areas further [8,17,18,19]. Clearly, novel land which could be developed for OP, as reported in the current paper, is of great significance for the future of the palm oil industry (Table 1). This current report uniquely explores the exploitation of such highly elevated land.
Areas of officially protected land in Indonesia and the elevation of the land can be deduced from Figure 1 in reference [21]. The areas of overlap between the two parameters are approximately 20% for Sumatra and 20% for the Borneo region. Hence, 80% of the elevated land is on unprotected land in the two regions making their use for growing OP more straight forward, although environmental concerns would require urgent attention. The equivalent overlap is approximately 5% for Sulawesi and 5% for West Papua. The conservation areas described in [22] for Indonesia are considerably reduced compared to those described in [21]. Consequently, the newly created HSC regions mentioned in the current report are mainly in unprotected land, although this is likely to change dramatically in the future because of climate change.
A potential decrease in OP productivity from climate change in Indonesia was reported [23], which could significantly impact farmers’ incomes and the local economy detrimentally. Higher temperatures increased yield in Indonesia although only a maximum temperature of 26.3 °C was considered [24], and climate change is likely to result in much higher temperatures, negatively affecting OP [8]. In addition, high rainfall was reported to reduce yields [24]. In Malaysia and Indonesia, the optimal temperature for palm oil production was approximately 25 °C, and 93% of the plantation areas examined exceeded this temperature [25], leading to suboptimal production. The authors found that precipitation enhanced yield, with peatland plantations being more sensitive to precipitation than non-peatland. Abubakar et al. [26] compared their data to [8], in terms of the effect of climate change on OP, although they did not take into account greenhouse gas (GHG) production which made comparisons invalid [27]. They also mentioned that many studies show that climate will be suitable for OP until 2100 and cite [8], amongst other references, to illustrate this conclusion. However, climate change will drastically reduce the suitable climate for OP by 2100 [8,17,18,19,27]. Abubakar et al. [28] also concluded that climatic elements had no significant effect on OP production which is inconsistent with the other data as mentioned previously. On the other hand, Abubakar et al. [29,30] present the correct interpretation of the data of greatly reduced suitable climate for OP by 2100. Fleiss et al. [31] state that climate variation caused less than 1% variation in total palm oil yield. They mention that only the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia would be affected by heat stress, and the effect would not be substantial in Malaysia in general. However, the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia contains numerous plantations and so the effect would be substantial [32]. Fleiss et al. [31] did not consider the combined effects of interacting stresses (i.e., hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry, and cold-wet) which indicated heavily decreased yields in Malaysia [32].
The scenarios for the incidences of BSR in the future involve large numbers for Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia compared to other regions because they are known to have high incidences of the disease [17,18,19], which would allow the disease to spread rapidly to newly planted OP. However, the OP would have considerable resistance because they would be growing optimally under the newly created HSC. The incidences of BSR in Borneo, West Papua, and Sulawesi were considered as being low, because these regions have low incidences of BSR currently [18,19] and there would only be a small amount of cross infection to newly planted OP.
There is no information on the effect of future climate on BSR apart from the information in various reports by the current author such as [17,18,19]. However, reference [33] stated the combined effect of BSR and drought had the greatest detrimental effects on OP seedlings compared to the individual factors alone which is somewhat predictable. Dry stress was limited to Java, Indonesia, and the islands immediately to the east of Java [8] and was not as large a factor as heat stress on the suitable climate for OP. Heat stress also requires testing on OP seedlings.
Furthermore, the concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere, in general, are increasing at an alarming rate, contributing to accelerated climate change [1]. It has been proposed that this may permit high levels of CO2 fertilisation in OP, thereby yielding more palm oil [34]. This may occur in new plantations potentially grown in the HSC regions described in the present paper.
Many of the areas described in the present report are at high elevations which may not support OP, despite the climate being highly suitable. The slope of the land may be too severe or soil may be absent [8]. However, it is likely there will be plains and valleys where OP development would be possible. Some of the regions under consideration are biodiverse currently, although because climate is changing dramatically the current fauna and flora will change, making it more difficult to predict which organisms would be under threat from novel plantation development. The land under discussion may consist of environmentally sensitive regions such as rainforests and these should not be destroyed unnecessarily for OP plantations. In addition, road building for ingress and egress to the land may be difficult, causing problems for plantation management [3].
This is the first formal recognition that some substantial areas of Indonesia and Malaysia, which previously had unsuitable climate for growing OP, may experience HSC in the future, an interesting observation per se. A large decrease in suitable climate was the general theme of previous papers [17,18,19]. The areas which become highly suitable may act as refuges for OP in the face of a general decrease in suitable climate. The current paper discusses increases in HSC and changes in the incidences of BSR in the two primary palm- oil-producing countries of Malaysia and Indonesia for the first time. The information provides a less pessimistic [12] outlook, if the goal is to produce palm oil. Finally, the current paper describes mountainous regions becoming warmer, with future climate consequently being able to support OP. The warming of the climate in mountainous areas to support plants is consistent with what is projected to occur more generally in the future [35].

5. Conclusions

A substantial future increase in HSC for growing OP in regions of Indonesia and Malaysia that previously had unsuitable climate is reported herein. This is the first such paper on the subject. Previously, general declines in suitable climate were reported. The data are based on modelling techniques and are interesting observations per se. In addition, the information could provide the basis for rational plans to combat climate change effects on OP and making the industry more sustainable. More modelling of the effects of climate change on OP is required urgently to provide further scenarios for the adaptation to the effects of climate change on OP. Overall, the industry needs to support governmental policies aimed at reducing climate change by limiting the burning of fossil fuels.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Data Availability Statement

The original contributions presented in this study are included in the article. Further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author.

Conflicts of Interest

The author declares no conflicts of interest.

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Figure 1. Areas of unsuitable land (white) and highly suitable land (red) for growing oil palm at present in Malaysia and Indonesia [8]. (A) Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia; (B) Borneo; (C) Sulawesi and, (D) West Papua. The vertical blue bars indicate the limits of the areas of unsuitable climate under discussion which are associated with elevated land. The green circles represent known oil palm plantations as mentioned in reference [8].
Figure 1. Areas of unsuitable land (white) and highly suitable land (red) for growing oil palm at present in Malaysia and Indonesia [8]. (A) Sumatra and Peninsular Malaysia; (B) Borneo; (C) Sulawesi and, (D) West Papua. The vertical blue bars indicate the limits of the areas of unsuitable climate under discussion which are associated with elevated land. The green circles represent known oil palm plantations as mentioned in reference [8].
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Figure 2. The change in highly suitable climate for growing oil palm and the percentage of OP with basal stem rot in the specific region of Sumatra discussed in the present paper.
Figure 2. The change in highly suitable climate for growing oil palm and the percentage of OP with basal stem rot in the specific region of Sumatra discussed in the present paper.
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Figure 3. The change in highly suitable climate for growing oil palm and the percentage of OP with basal stem rot in the specific region of Borneo discussed in the present paper.
Figure 3. The change in highly suitable climate for growing oil palm and the percentage of OP with basal stem rot in the specific region of Borneo discussed in the present paper.
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Figure 4. The change in highly suitable climate for growing oil palm and the percentage of OP with basal stem rot in the specific region of Sulawesi discussed in the present paper.
Figure 4. The change in highly suitable climate for growing oil palm and the percentage of OP with basal stem rot in the specific region of Sulawesi discussed in the present paper.
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Figure 5. The change in highly suitable climate for growing oil palm and the percentage of OP with basal stem rot in the specific region of West Papua discussed in the present paper.
Figure 5. The change in highly suitable climate for growing oil palm and the percentage of OP with basal stem rot in the specific region of West Papua discussed in the present paper.
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Figure 6. The change in highly suitable climate for growing oil palm and the percentage of OP with basal stem rot in the specific region of Peninsular Malaysia discussed in the present paper.
Figure 6. The change in highly suitable climate for growing oil palm and the percentage of OP with basal stem rot in the specific region of Peninsular Malaysia discussed in the present paper.
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Figure 7. Decrease in cold stress between 2015 and 2100 in the total areas of the five regions.
Figure 7. Decrease in cold stress between 2015 and 2100 in the total areas of the five regions.
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Table 1. Areas (×105 km2) of islands, regions, and Malaysia, and approximate areas of regions of unsuitable climate at present [20]. The data for Malaysia per se are given for comparative purposes.
Table 1. Areas (×105 km2) of islands, regions, and Malaysia, and approximate areas of regions of unsuitable climate at present [20]. The data for Malaysia per se are given for comparative purposes.
Island, Region or CountryAreaArea of Unsuitable Climate at Present [8]
Malaysia3.30.3
Sumatra4.71.4
Borneo7.51.4
Sulawesi1.81.1
West Papuaca. 0.70.2
Peninsular Malaysia1.30.1
Total (without Malaysia per se)16.04.2
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Paterson, R.R.M. Novel High-Suitability Regions for Oil Palm with Basal Stem Rot Estimations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Forests 2025, 16, 1669. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16111669

AMA Style

Paterson RRM. Novel High-Suitability Regions for Oil Palm with Basal Stem Rot Estimations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Forests. 2025; 16(11):1669. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16111669

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paterson, Robert Russell Monteith. 2025. "Novel High-Suitability Regions for Oil Palm with Basal Stem Rot Estimations in Indonesia and Malaysia" Forests 16, no. 11: 1669. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16111669

APA Style

Paterson, R. R. M. (2025). Novel High-Suitability Regions for Oil Palm with Basal Stem Rot Estimations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Forests, 16(11), 1669. https://doi.org/10.3390/f16111669

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