Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest Change
Abstract
:1. Introduction
Climate Niche Models and Limitations
2. Methods
2.1. Assembling Presence–Absence Data
2.2. Climate Variables
2.3. Species-Specific Niche Models
2.4. Mapping and Interpreting Model Output
3. Results
3.1. Niche Models
3.2. Variable Importance
3.3. Projected Changes
4. Discussion
4.1. Uncertainty and Management
4.2. Locally Adapted Populations (Climatypes) and Natural Selection
4.3. Vegetation Change and Climate Analogs
4.4. Application to Management
4.4.1. General Application of Change Classes
4.4.2. Management Tactics and Examples
Encourage a Mix including Future-Suitable Species
Use Projected Change and Votes as Criteria to Choose Locations for Management
Identify Potential Climate Refugia for Special Management
Facilitate Migration
4.4.3. Management Restrictions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A. Assembling a Presence–Absence Dataset
Appendix A.1. Vegetation Data
Appendix A.1.1. National Forest System
Appendix A.1.2. Southern Ute Indian Tribe
Appendix A.1.3. Mesa Verde National Park
Appendix A.2. Sample Points
Appendix A.3. FIA Plots
Appendix A.4. Desert Grid
Appendix A.5. Total Sample
Management Unit | Number of Points |
---|---|
Grand Mesa NF | 25,372 |
Gunnison NF | 122,873 |
Uncompahgre NF | 75,031 |
Manti-La Sal NF | 167 |
Pike NF | 48,305 |
Rio Grande NF | 147,376 |
San Isabel NF | 67,581 |
San Juan NF and Tres Rios BLM | 252,779 |
White River NF | 71,656 |
Mesa Verde National Park | 5728 |
Southern Ute Indian Tribe | 23,201 |
Appendix B. Influence of Heatload as a Predictor of Species Occurrence in Reference Period
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Species | Acronym | Number of Presence Points | Median Elevation (m) | Vegetation Association |
---|---|---|---|---|
Juniperus osteosperma (Torr.) Little | JUOS | 66,827 | 2027 | Woodland |
Pinus edulis Engelm. | PIED | 112,895 | 2135 | Woodland |
Quercus gambelii Nutt. | QUGA | 148,180 | 2360 | Woodland, montane forest, montane scrub |
Juniperus scopulorum Sarg. | JUSC2 | 29,034 | 2433 | Woodland, montane forest |
Pinus ponderosa Douglas ex C. Lawson | PIPO | 147,124 | 2549 | Montane forest |
Abies concolor (Gord. and Glend.) Lindl. | ABCO | 33,587 | 2671 | Montane forest, subalpine forest |
Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco | PSME | 142,639 | 2788 | Montane forest |
Picea pungens Engelm. | PIPU | 15,049 | 2803 | Subalpine forest |
Populus tremuloides Michx. | POTR5 | 297,271 | 2903 | Montane forest, subalpine forest |
Pinus flexilis E.James | PIFL2 | 19,476 | 2984 | Subalpine forest |
Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon | PICO | 70,266 | 3101 | Subalpine forest |
Pinus aristata Engelm. | PIAR | 31,935 | 3151 | Subalpine forest |
Picea engelmannii Engelm. | PIEN | 304,310 | 3210 | Subalpine forest |
Abies lasiocarpa (Hook.) Nutt. | ABLA | 183,434 | 3215 | Subalpine forest |
Variable | Definition | Number of Models in which Variable Ranked | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Highest | Upper Two | Upper Four | ||
dd5 | Degree days > 5 °C (based on mean monthly temperature) | 1 | 1 | 2 |
map | Mean annual precipitation | 1 | 2 | 3 |
gsp | Growing season precipitation, April to September | 0 | 1 | 1 |
mindd0 | Degree days < 0 °C (based on mean minimum monthly temperature) | 2 | 2 | 3 |
d100 | Julian date on which the sum of degree days > 5 °C reaches 100 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
tdiff | Temperature difference between warmest and coldest month | 3 | 4 | 13 |
pratio | Precipitation ratio, growing season to annual: gsp/map | 1 | 3 | 8 |
mapdd5 | (map × dd5)/1000 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
adi | Annual dryness index: dd50.5/map | 0 | 0 | 0 |
adimindd0 | adi × mindd0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
sdimindd0 | (gsdd50.5/gsp) × mindd0, where gsdd5 is the degree-day sum between the last freezing temperature of spring and the first freezing temperature of autumn | 0 | 0 | 0 |
heatload | 0.339 + 0.808 × cos(L) × cos(S) + −0.196 × sin(L) × sin(S) + −0.482 × cos(A) × sin(S), where L = latitude in radians, S = slope in radians, A = aspect in radians, rotated and folded such that minimum values are at 45°and maximum values at 225° [45] | 0 | 6 | 14 |
Change Classes | Proportion of Votes | Interpretation | |
---|---|---|---|
Reference Period | Post Mid-Century | ||
Always unsuitable | <0.5 | <0.5 | Climate is unsuitable in reference period and remains unsuitable in the future |
Lost | ≥0.5 | <0.3 | Future climate will be so unfavorable that the species is unlikely to survive the century |
Threatened | ≥0.5 | ≥0.3 to <0.5 | Future climate will be unfavorable but the species may survive under otherwise favorable conditions |
Persistent | ≥0.5 | ≥0.5 | Future climate will remain suitable |
Emergent | <0.5 | ≥0.5 | Areas outside current distribution that will become climatically suitable |
Species | Developmental Model a | Validation of Developmental Model b | Final Model c | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Out of Bag | Commission | Omission | Total Error | Commission | Omission | Out of Bag | Commission | Omission | |
JUOS | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 4.1 |
PIED | 8.1 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 7.7 | 7.0 |
QUGA | 8.6 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 6.5 |
JUSC2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 6.1 |
PIPO | 9.1 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 7.5 |
ABCO | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 3.0 |
PSME | 14.3 | 14.5 | 13.3 | 14.4 | 14.7 | 12.7 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.9 |
PIPU | 9.8 | 9.8 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 10.5 |
POTR5 | 15.8 | 16.4 | 14.6 | 15.9 | 16.8 | 14.2 | 15.4 | 15.5 | 15.2 |
PIFL2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 6.4 |
PICO | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.9 |
PIAR | 9.2 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 5.8 |
PIEN | 12.6 | 13.7 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 13.9 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 10.9 |
ABLA | 13.8 | 14.5 | 11.4 | 14.0 | 14.9 | 10.7 | 13.3 | 13.6 | 12.0 |
Species a | Reference Period Niche (km2) | Projected Fate of Reference Period Niche (Percent) | Emergent Niche | Niche Change (Percent) | Median Elevation Change (m) d | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lost Area | Threatened Area | Persistent Area | Percent of Reference Period Niche | Area (km2) | Optimistic b | Pessimistic c | |||
JUOS | 19,198 | 15 | 64 | 21 | 7 | 1263 | −8 | −72 | 27–73 |
PIED | 26,891 | 17 | 44 | 39 | 43 | 11,528 | +26 | −18 | 235–382 |
QUGA | 21,919 | 13 | 39 | 48 | 47 | 10,223 | +34 | −6 | 185–311 |
JUSC2 | 14,349 | 47 | 41 | 12 | 23 | 3239 | −24 | −65 | 214–296 |
PIPO | 19,553 | 34 | 55 | 10 | 6 | 1144 | −28 | −84 | 126–297 |
ABCO | 6333 | 76 | 24 | 0 | 1 | 45 | −75 | −99 | 195–316 |
PSME | 18,862 | 15 | 76 | 9 | 4 | 690 | −12 | −88 | 64–212 |
PIPU | 7956 | 75 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −75 | −100 | −44–NA |
POTR5 | 25,332 | 55 | 43 | 2 | 17 | 4369 | −37 | −80 | 293–639 |
PIFL2 | 5809 | 100 | 0 e | 0 | 0 | 0 | −100 | −100 | NA |
PICO | 7980 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −100 | −100 | NA |
PIAR | 7714 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −100 | −100 | NA |
PIEN | 21,530 | 44 | 54 | 2 | 5 | 985 | −39 | −94 | 173–562 |
ABLA | 15,496 | 56 | 43 | 1 | 5 | 824 | −51 | −94 | 214–597 |
Change from Reference Period (%) | |||
---|---|---|---|
With Emergent | Without Emergent | ||
With QUGA | |||
Optimistic a | −4 | −13 | |
Pessimistic b | −42 | −67 | |
Without QUGA c | |||
Optimistic | −9 | −20 | |
Pessimistic | −56 | −78 |
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Worrall, J.J.; Rehfeldt, G.E. Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest Change. Forests 2021, 12, 1780. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12121780
Worrall JJ, Rehfeldt GE. Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest Change. Forests. 2021; 12(12):1780. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12121780
Chicago/Turabian StyleWorrall, James J., and Gerald E. Rehfeldt. 2021. "Strategic Application of Topoclimatic Niche Models in Managing Forest Change" Forests 12, no. 12: 1780. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12121780