Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Forest Coverage and the Spatial Distribution of 19 Key Forest Tree Species in Italy under RCP4.5 IPCC Trajectory for 2050s

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

The topic and aim of this paper are fully relevant due to the lack of such studies in Italy. The scientific dimension of this paper is relevant and the paper is clear. Some few improvements should be done:
1- About the presentation of Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM), the auhtors should introduce the works done by the following references:
1.1. Iverson, L.R., Prasad, A.M., Hale, B.J., Sutherland, E.K., 1999. Atlas of Current and Potential Future distributions of Common Trees of the Eastern United States. United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, General Technical Report NE-265.
1.2. Badeau, V., Dupouey, J.-L., Cluzeau, C., Drapier, J., Le Bas, C., 2004. Modélisation et cartographie de l’aire climatique potentielle des grandes essences forestières françaises. Rapport final du projet CARBOFOR – Séquestration de carbone dans les grands écosystèmes forestiers de France, Tâche D1, Ecofor.

2- About the description of methods characterizing the relationships between plants and climate data, the authors should beter present the mathematical basis of their methodology (just mentionning the techniques used).

3- In the presentation of the other methodologies, they also have to introduce the probabilist methods proposed by the following authors (probabilistic calibration):
Garbolino E., Sanseverino-Godfrin V., Hinojos-Mendoza G., Describing and predicting of the vegetation development of
Corsica due to expected climate change and its impact on forest fire risk
evolution, Safety Science 97 (2017) 81–87.

4- About forest management, the authors should also take into account the following references :

4.1. Keenan, R.J. Climate change impacts and adaptation in forest management: A review. Ann. For. Sci. 2015, 72,
145–167.

4.2. C.D. Allen, A.K. Macalady, H. Chenchouni, D. Bachelet, N. Mcdowell, M. Vennetier, T. Kitzberger, A. Rigling, D.D. Breshears, E.H. Hogg, P. Gonzalez, R. Fensham, Z. Zhang, J.-H. Lim, J. Castro, N. Demidova, G. Allard, S.W. Running, A. Semerci, N. Cobb, A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests, Forest Ecology and Management. 259 (4), (2010), pag. 660–684.

5- Finally, a short discussion on the analyse of the results on the potential consequences on forest fires due to climate change impacts on forest ecosystems in Italy could be presented. See for example :

5.1. Abatzoglou, J.T.; Williams, A.P. Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2016, 113, 11770–11775.

5.2. H. Fargeon,  F. Pimont, N. Martin-StPaul, M. De Caceres, J. Ruffault,
R. Barbero, J-L. Dupuy, Projections of fire danger under climate change
over France: where do the greatest uncertainties lie? Climatic Change, Springer Nature.

Author Response

Rev#1

The topic and aim of this paper are fully relevant due to the lack of such studies in Italy. The scientific dimension of this paper is relevant and the paper is clear. Some few improvements should be done:

1- About the presentation of Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM), the authors should introduce the works done by the following references:

1.1. Iverson, L.R., Prasad, A.M., Hale, B.J., Sutherland, E.K., 1999. Atlas of Current and Potential Future distributions of Common Trees of the Eastern United States. United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, General Technical Report NE-265.

1.2. Badeau, V., Dupouey, J.-L., Cluzeau, C., Drapier, J., Le Bas, C., 2004. Modélisation et cartographie de l’aire climatique potentielle des grandes essences forestières françaises. Rapport final du projet CARBOFOR – Séquestration de carbone dans les grands écosystèmes forestiers de France, Tâche D1, Ecofor.

Authors: the proposed references have been cited in the section a suggested as references [33,34]

2- About the description of methods characterizing the relationships between plants and climate data, the authors should better present the mathematical basis of their methodology (just mentionning the techniques used).

Authors: a small paragraph has been added on this topic, see lines 165-168 of the track change file.

3- In the presentation of the other methodologies, they also have to introduce the probabilistic methods proposed by the following authors (probabilistic calibration):

Garbolino E., Sanseverino-Godfrin V., Hinojos-Mendoza G., Describing and predicting of the vegetation development of Corsica due to expected climate change and its impact on forest fire risk evolution, Safety Science 97 (2017) 81–87.

Authors: the citation has been added as reference [39]

4- About forest management, the authors should also take into account the following references:

4.1. Keenan, R.J. Climate change impacts and adaptation in forest management: A review. Ann. For. Sci. 2015, 72, 145–167.

4.2. C.D. Allen, A.K. Macalady, H. Chenchouni, D. Bachelet, N. Mcdowell, M. Vennetier, T. Kitzberger, A. Rigling, D.D. Breshears, E.H. Hogg, P. Gonzalez, R. Fensham, Z. Zhang, J.-H. Lim, J. Castro, N. Demidova, G. Allard, S.W. Running, A. Semerci, N. Cobb, A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests, Forest Ecology and Management. 259 (4), (2010), pag. 660–684.

Authors: the citation has been added as reference [71] and [95] respectively

5- Finally, a short discussion on the analyses of the results on the potential consequences on forest fires due to climate change impacts on forest ecosystems in Italy could be presented. See for example :

5.1. Abatzoglou, J.T.; Williams, A.P. Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2016, 113, 11770–11775.

5.2. H. Fargeon, F. Pimont, N. Martin-StPaul, M. De Caceres, J. Ruffault, R. Barbero, J-L. Dupuy, Projections of fire danger under climate change over France: where do the greatest uncertainties lie? Climatic Change, Springer Nature.

Authors: a small part of forest wildfirest has been added as references [96] and [98] respectively.

Overall thank you for your positive comments.

Author Response File: Author Response.docx

Reviewer 2 Report

One of the most important parts of the paper is the abstract sections. this needs more work than the majoritiy of the paper. I have made a coan english speaker reread the paper to make sure that the flow does not have too many inverted (translated) phrazes.puple of suggestions, the key is to have. 

Author Response

Rev#2

One of the most important parts of the paper is the abstract sections. this needs more work than the majority of the paper. I have made a coan English speaker reread the paper to make sure that the flow does not have too many inverted (translated) phrases purple of suggestions, the key is to have.

Authors: the abstract has been partially rewritten with a more focused introductive part and a slightly different results section. We also worked on the whole text to improve the grammar quality

Author Response File: Author Response.docx