Classifying and Predicting Household Energy Consumption Using Data Analytics and Machine Learning

Growing pressure on electricity grids and the increasing availability of smart meter data have intensified the need for accurate, interpretable, and scalable methods to analyze and forecast household electricity consumption. In this context, this study presents a general, data-agnostic methodology for predicting and classifying household energy consumption. The proposed workflow unifies data preparation, feature engineering, and machine learning techniques (including clustering, classification, regression, and time series forecasting) within a single interpretable pipeline that supports actionable insights. Rather than proposing new prediction algorithms, this work contributes a fully reproducible, end-to-end methodological pipeline that enables the controlled evaluation of the impact of contextual variables, customer segmentation, and cold-start conditions on household energy forecasting. A distinctive aspect of the pipeline is the explicit use of household- and dwelling-level contextual variables to derive customer typologies via clustering and to enrich forecasting models. The models are evaluated for predictive accuracy, reliability under varying conditions, and suitability for operational use. The results show that incorporating contextual variables and clustering significantly improves forecasting accuracy, particularly in cold-start scenarios where no historical consumption data are available. Although numerous public datasets of residential electricity consumption exist, they rarely provide, in an openly accessible form, both detailed load histories and rich contextual attributes, while many are subject to privacy or licensing restrictions. To ensure full reproducibility and to enable controlled experiments where contextual variables can be switched on and off, the experiments are conducted on a synthetically generated dataset that reproduces realistic behavior and seasonal usage patterns. However, the proposed methodology is independent of the specific data source and can be directly applied to any real or synthetic dataset with similar structure. The approach enables applications such as short- and long-term demand forecasting, estimation of household energy costs, and forecasting demand for new customers. These findings demonstrate that the proposed pipeline provides a transparent and effective framework for end-to-end analysis of household electricity consumption.