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Energies 2015, 8(10), 10558-10583;

Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios

School of Soil and Water Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100038, China
Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation & Desertification Combat, Beijing Forest University, Beijing 100038, China
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Jinwei Dong
Received: 30 June 2015 / Revised: 12 September 2015 / Accepted: 15 September 2015 / Published: 24 September 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Large Scale LUCC, Ecosystem Service, Water Balance and Energy Use)
Full-Text   |   PDF [1960 KB, uploaded 24 September 2015]   |  


Forestland dynamics can affect the ecological security of a country and even the global environment, and therefore it is of great practical significance to understand the characteristics of temporal and spatial variations of forestland. Taking Jiangxi Province as the study area, this study first explored the driving mechanism of the natural environment and social economy on deforestation and afforestation using a simultaneous equation model. The results indicate that population size, topographic and geomorphologic factors, climate, and location play leading roles in influencing forestland density fluctuations. Specifically, the population size, economic development level, gross value of forestry production, climate conditions, and government policies are key influencing factors of afforestation. Deforestation is mainly influenced by agricultural population, non-agricultural economy, forestry production, forestry density, location, transportation, and climate. In addition, this study simulated the spatial distribution of land use and analyzed the spatial characteristics and variation trends of forestland area and quality under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate scenarios from 2010 to 2030 using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model. The results indicate that forestland declines under the Asia-Pacific integrated model (AIM) climate scenario. The environment tends to be heavily damaged under this kind of scenarios, and measures should be taken in order to protect the environment. Although the model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact (MESSAGE) scenario is to some extent better than the AIM scenario, destruction of the environment will still occur, and it is necessary to restrain deforestation and convert shrub land into forestland or garden land. These results can provide significant information for environmental protection, forest resource exploitation, and utilization in the areas experiencing deforestation and afforestation. View Full-Text
Keywords: dynamics of forestland; driving mechanism; climate scenario; simulation dynamics of forestland; driving mechanism; climate scenario; simulation

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Jiang, Q.; Cheng, Y.; Jin, Q.; Deng, X.; Qi, Y. Simulation of Forestland Dynamics in a Typical Deforestation and Afforestation Area under Climate Scenarios. Energies 2015, 8, 10558-10583.

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