Balancing Fiscal, Energy, and Environmental Concerns: Analyzing the Policy Options for California’s Energy and Economic Future
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Modeling California’s Energy and Economic Future
2.1. The Energy Market Forecasting Model
Endogenous Variables | Type | Endogenous Variables | Type |
---|---|---|---|
Residential Sector | Commercial Sector | ||
Divisia energy price | I | Divisia energy price | I |
Aggregate energy quantity | B | Aggregate energy quantity | B |
Cost shares & quantities | Cost shares & quantities | ||
Natural Gas | B | Natural Gas | B |
Liquid Propane Gas, etc. | B | Petroleum Products | B |
Electricity | B | Electricity | B |
Electricity Generation | Industrial Sector | ||
Generation & Fuel Use | Divisia energy price | I | |
Natural Gas | B | Aggregate energy quantity | B |
Nuclear | B | Cost shares & quantities | |
Coal | B | Boiler & Process Fuels | B |
Hydroelectric | B | Natural Gas | B |
Other Renewables | B | Coal | B |
Electric power generation | I | Other petroleum products | B |
Electricity consumption | I | Electricity | B |
Average Generation Costs | I | Transportation | |
Retail Electricity prices | B | Gasoline in road travel | B |
Diesel in road travel | B |
2.2. Economic Impact Analysis and Models
3. Scenario Development
- Full implementation of California Renewable Energy Resources Act;
- Adoption of integrated combined cycle natural gas power generation;
- Development of crude oil and natural gas reserves in the Santa Barbara Channel;
- The level and composition of energy consumption;
- Greenhouse gas emissions;
- Employment;
- Value added;
- Tax revenues.
3.1. Baseline Scenario
3.2. California Renewable Energy Resources Act
3.3. Natural Gas Based Electricity Generation
3.4. Developing Oil and Natural Gas Resources
4. Energy, Economic, and Environmental Impacts
4.1. The Baseline Forecast
4.2. Impacts of Renewable Portfolio Standard
Year | Low growth scenario | High growth scenario | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Solar Thermal | PV | Wind | Geothermal | Biomass | Solar Thermal | PV | Wind | Geothermal | Biomass | |
2012 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2013 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2014 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2015 | 3795 | 1546 | 5253 | 787 | 330 | 4018 | 1637 | 5562 | 833 | 350 |
2016 | 567 | 231 | 785 | 118 | 49 | 649 | 264 | 898 | 135 | 56 |
2017 | 594 | 242 | 822 | 123 | 52 | 693 | 282 | 960 | 144 | 60 |
2018 | 613 | 250 | 848 | 127 | 53 | 726 | 296 | 1005 | 151 | 63 |
2019 | 633 | 258 | 876 | 131 | 55 | 761 | 310 | 1054 | 158 | 66 |
2020 | 531 | 216 | 735 | 110 | 46 | 677 | 276 | 937 | 140 | 59 |
2021 | 88 | 36 | 121 | 18 | 8 | 204 | 83 | 283 | 42 | 18 |
2022 | 226 | 92 | 313 | 47 | 20 | 347 | 141 | 480 | 72 | 30 |
2023 | 208 | 85 | 288 | 43 | 18 | 339 | 138 | 470 | 70 | 30 |
2024 | 29 | 12 | 41 | 6 | 3 | 164 | 67 | 227 | 34 | 14 |
2025 | 72 | 29 | 100 | 15 | 6 | 214 | 87 | 296 | 44 | 19 |
2026 | 92 | 38 | 128 | 19 | 8 | 240 | 98 | 332 | 50 | 21 |
2027 | 95 | 39 | 131 | 20 | 8 | 252 | 103 | 348 | 52 | 22 |
2028 | 150 | 61 | 207 | 31 | 13 | 322 | 131 | 446 | 67 | 28 |
2029 | 63 | 25 | 87 | 13 | 5 | 239 | 97 | 331 | 50 | 21 |
2030 | 119 | 48 | 165 | 25 | 10 | 302 | 123 | 418 | 63 | 26 |
2031 | 124 | 50 | 171 | 26 | 11 | 313 | 127 | 433 | 65 | 27 |
2032 | 187 | 76 | 258 | 39 | 16 | 386 | 157 | 535 | 80 | 34 |
2033 | 238 | 97 | 329 | 49 | 21 | 458 | 187 | 634 | 95 | 40 |
2034 | 201 | 82 | 278 | 42 | 17 | 423 | 172 | 586 | 88 | 37 |
2035 | 210 | 85 | 290 | 43 | 18 | 441 | 180 | 611 | 92 | 38 |
Year | Low growth scenario | High growth scenario | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jobs | Carbon Dioxide Emissions | Value Added | State tax revenues | Jobs | Carbon Dioxide Emissions | Value Added | State tax revenues | |
2012 | 54,744 | 0.00 | 4,955 | 545 | 58,147 | 0.00 | 5,263 | 579 |
2013 | 62,927 | 0.00 | 5,696 | 627 | 67,539 | 0.00 | 6,113 | 672 |
2014 | 71,496 | 0.00 | 6,471 | 712 | 77,574 | 0.00 | 7,021 | 772 |
2015 | −11,362 | −18.74 | −1,032 | −774 | −7,684 | −20.05 | −698 | −776 |
2016 | −14,566 | −21.08 | −1,323 | −905 | −10,771 | −22.80 | −978 | −920 |
2017 | −19,676 | −23.46 | −1,788 | −1,059 | −15,880 | −25.65 | −1,443 | −1,092 |
2018 | −30,969 | −25.89 | −2,820 | −1,279 | −27,874 | −28.61 | −2,538 | −1,339 |
2019 | −39,886 | −28.41 | −3,664 | −1,482 | −37,680 | −31.71 | −3,462 | −1,573 |
2020 | −46,592 | −30.58 | −4,305 | −1,645 | −45,452 | −34.52 | −4,200 | −1,772 |
2021 | −46,310 | −30.78 | −4,286 | −1,658 | −45,488 | −34.85 | −4,210 | −1,808 |
2022 | −48,001 | −31.70 | −4,466 | −1,718 | −47,324 | −35.92 | −4,403 | −1,890 |
2023 | −48,598 | −32.42 | −4,551 | −1,763 | −48,153 | −36.84 | −4,510 | −1,961 |
2024 | −46,559 | −32.68 | −4,348 | −1,746 | −46,368 | −37.38 | −4,330 | −1,969 |
2025 | −44,453 | −32.95 | −4,139 | −1,075 | −44,342 | −37.90 | −4,129 | −1,285 |
2026 | −43,234 | −33.48 | −4,032 | −981 | −42,957 | −38.69 | −4,006 | −1,201 |
2027 | −41,478 | −33.85 | −3,853 | −874 | −40,890 | −39.19 | −3,798 | −1,101 |
2028 | −40,589 | −34.63 | −3,763 | −784 | −40,004 | −40.21 | −3,709 | −1,021 |
2029 | −37,657 | −34.92 | −3,469 | −652 | −37,030 | −40.69 | −3,411 | −897 |
2030 | −34,984 | −35.60 | −3,216 | −552 | −33,873 | −41.58 | −3,114 | −799 |
2031 | −32,456 | −36.11 | −2,981 | −533 | −30,429 | −42.22 | −2,795 | −783 |
2032 | −30,850 | −37.04 | −2,831 | −510 | −27,620 | −43.29 | −2,535 | −761 |
2033 | −31,513 | −37.98 | −2,902 | −522 | −29,513 | −44.36 | −2,718 | −802 |
2034 | −31,569 | −38.97 | −2,922 | −554 | −30,518 | −45.50 | −2,824 | −859 |
2035 | −31,167 | −39.81 | −2,911 | −577 | −30,492 | −46.40 | −2,848 | −901 |
4.3. Impacts of Adopting Natural Gas Electricity Generation
Year | Low growth scenario | High growth scenario | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jobs | Carbon Dioxide Emissions | Value Added | State tax revenues | Jobs | Carbon Dioxide Emissions | Value Added | State tax revenues | |
2012 | 4,093 | 0.00 | 370 | 41 | 5,272 | 0.00 | 477 | 52 |
2013 | 4,705 | 0.00 | 426 | 47 | 6,064 | 0.00 | 549 | 60 |
2014 | 5,345 | 0.00 | 484 | 53 | 6,907 | 0.00 | 625 | 69 |
2015 | 1,093 | −2.20 | 99 | 11 | 1,218 | −2.87 | 111 | 12 |
2016 | 1,093 | −2.53 | 99 | 11 | 1,254 | −3.29 | 114 | 13 |
2017 | 700 | −2.87 | 64 | 7 | 839 | −3.75 | 76 | 8 |
2018 | −346 | −3.22 | −32 | −3 | −419 | −4.23 | −38 | −4 |
2019 | −1,206 | −3.59 | −111 | −12 | −1,449 | −4.73 | −133 | −15 |
2020 | −1,778 | −3.89 | −164 | −18 | −2,189 | −5.18 | −202 | −22 |
2021 | −2,366 | −3.94 | −219 | −24 | −2,731 | −4.97 | −253 | −28 |
2022 | −3,384 | −4.09 | −315 | −35 | −3,875 | −4.87 | −361 | −40 |
2023 | −4,033 | −4.21 | −378 | −42 | −4,468 | −4.77 | −418 | −46 |
2024 | −4,306 | −4.23 | −402 | −44 | −4,804 | −4.63 | −449 | −49 |
2025 | −4,544 | −4.27 | −423 | −47 | −4,936 | −4.46 | −460 | −51 |
2026 | −5,176 | −4.34 | −483 | −53 | −5,644 | −4.32 | −526 | −58 |
2027 | −5,680 | −4.40 | −528 | −58 | −5,927 | −4.00 | −551 | −61 |
2028 | −5,678 | −4.48 | −526 | −58 | −5,743 | −3.75 | −532 | −59 |
2029 | −5,281 | −4.51 | −486 | −54 | −4,967 | −3.38 | −457 | −50 |
2030 | −5,336 | −4.58 | −491 | −54 | −4,823 | −3.06 | −443 | −49 |
2031 | −5,995 | −4.66 | −551 | −61 | −5,192 | −2.68 | −477 | −52 |
2032 | −6,875 | −4.79 | −631 | −69 | −5,816 | −2.31 | −534 | −59 |
2033 | −7,681 | −4.95 | −707 | −78 | −6,419 | −1.89 | −591 | −65 |
2034 | −8,407 | −5.08 | −778 | −86 | −6,985 | −1.45 | −646 | −71 |
2035 | −9,417 | −5.22 | −880 | −97 | −7,650 | −0.93 | −715 | −79 |
4.4. Impacts of Developing Santa Barbara Oil
5. Summary and Conclusions
Net Impacts on | Scenarios | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Renewable Energy Portfolio | Natural Gas | Santa Barbara Oil | Santa Barbara Oil with Feedback | |
Employment | Average Annual Number of Jobs | |||
Low Growth | −23,471 | −2,936 | 24,659 | 22,471 |
High Growth | −21,545 | −2,603 | 22,143 | |
Value Added | Present Value in Millions of 2010 Dollars | |||
Low Growth | −29,982 | −3,380 | 91,769 | 83,609 |
High Growth | −26,668 | −2,893 | 82,397 | |
State Tax Revenues | ||||
Low Growth | −13,420 | −372 | 23,786 | 23,371 |
High Growth | −15,656 | −318 | 23,310 | |
Carbon Dioxide Emissions | Cumulative in millions of tons | |||
Low Growth | −671 | −86 | −3 | 12 |
High Growth | −768 | −76 | 14 |
Acknowledgments
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Considine, T.; Manderson, E. Balancing Fiscal, Energy, and Environmental Concerns: Analyzing the Policy Options for California’s Energy and Economic Future. Energies 2013, 6, 1266-1297. https://doi.org/10.3390/en6031266
Considine T, Manderson E. Balancing Fiscal, Energy, and Environmental Concerns: Analyzing the Policy Options for California’s Energy and Economic Future. Energies. 2013; 6(3):1266-1297. https://doi.org/10.3390/en6031266
Chicago/Turabian StyleConsidine, Timothy, and Edward Manderson. 2013. "Balancing Fiscal, Energy, and Environmental Concerns: Analyzing the Policy Options for California’s Energy and Economic Future" Energies 6, no. 3: 1266-1297. https://doi.org/10.3390/en6031266