Sectoral Dynamics of Sustainable Energy Transition in EU27 Countries (1990–2023): A Multi-Method Approach

This study critically examines the sectoral dynamics of renewable energy (RE) adoption across the EU-27 from 1990 to 2023, addressing the persistent gap between electricity generation and end-use sectors. Utilizing Eurostat energy balance data, the research employs a robust multi-methodological framework. We apply the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition to isolate driving factors, and the Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) of Kohonen to cluster countries with similar transition structures. Furthermore, the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) is used to estimate heterogeneous drivers across the distribution of RE shares. The empirical findings reveal a sharp dichotomy: while the share of renewables in the electricity generation mix (RES-E-Renewable Energy Share in Electricity) reached approximately 53.8% in leading member states, the aggregated share in the transport sector (RES-T) remains significantly lower at 9.1%. This distinction highlights that while power generation is decarbonizing rapidly, end-use electrification lags behind. The MMQR analysis indicates that economic growth drives renewable adoption more effectively in countries with already high renewable shares (upper quantiles) due to established market mechanisms and grid flexibility. Conversely, in lower-quantile countries, regulatory stability and direct infrastructure investment prove more critical than market-based incentives, highlighting the need for differentiated policy instruments. While EU policy milestones (RED I–III-) align with progress in power generation, they have failed to accelerate transitions in lagging sectors. This study concludes that achieving climate neutrality requires moving beyond aggregate targets to implement distinct, sector-specific interventions that address the unique structural barriers in transport and thermal applications.