The Impacts of Water Policies and Hydrological Uncertainty on the Future Energy Transition of the Power Sector in Shanxi Province, China

Water scarcity under climate change and increasingly stringent water conservation policies may trigger energy security concerns. The current study develops an optimization model to investigate the impacts of water conservation policies and hydrological uncertainties on the regional energy transition process in Shanxi Province, China. The dual-control policies on total water consumption and water intensity are systematically examined for their differential constraints and stimulative effects on various power generation types. Hydrological time series analysis methods are employed to project future water resource variations in Shanxi Province and evaluate their implications for power system optimization. The results indicate that (1) total water constraint policies are more stringent than water intensity constraint policies; (2) changes in water resource availability impose greater restrictions on coal power development than those imposed by current water conservation policies; and (3) when total water resources decrease by approximately 43.5% compared with 2020 levels, Shanxi Province may face electricity shortages. These findings suggest that water conservation policy formulation should be coordinated with regional power sector development planning, while also considering potential energy security risks posed by potential future reductions in water resources.