Decarbonizing Aviation: The Low-Carbon Footprint and Strategic Potential of Colombian Palm Oil for Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Abstract

The global energy transition is pushing the development of advanced biofuels to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the aviation industry. This study thoroughly evaluates the potential of the Colombian crude palm oil (CPO) sector to support sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Extensive primary data from 53 palm oil mills and 269 palm plantations were examined. The methodology included a carbon footprint analysis of SAF produced from Colombian CPO through the HEFA pathway, an economic aspects analysis, a review of renewable fuel standards, and an assessment of market access for low-CO₂-emitting feedstocks. The results show that the carbon footprint of the Colombian palm oil-SAF is 16.11 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ SAF, which is significantly lower than the 89.2 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ reference value for traditional jet fuel. This figure considers current direct Land Use-Change (DLUC) emissions and existing methane capture practices within the Colombian palm oil agro-industry. A sensitivity analysis indicated that this SAF’s carbon footprint could decrease to negative values of −4.58 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ if all surveyed palm oil mills implement methane capture. Conversely, excluding DLUC emissions from the assessment raised the values to 47.46 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹, highlighting Colombia’s favorable DLUC profile as a major factor in its low overall CPO carbon footprint. These findings also emphasize that methane capture is a key low-carbon practice for reducing the environmental impact of sustainable fuel production, as outlined by the CORSIA methodology. Based on the economic analysis, investing in Colombian CPO-based SAF production is a financially sound decision. However, the project’s profitability is highly susceptible to the volatility of SAF sales prices and raw material costs, underscoring the need for meticulous risk management. Overall, these results demonstrate the strong potential of Colombian palm oil for producing sustainable aviation fuels that comply with CORSIA requirements.

1. Introduction

The past decade has witnessed a boom in the production of advanced biofuels, a consequence of the global energy transition aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with the combustion of fossil fuels. Global CO₂eq emissions in 2022 were reported at 57.4 billion tons, with the energy sector accounting for 36% of this total [1]. Within the energy sector, air transport was responsible for 2.5% of total GHG emissions [2]. Given the anticipated growth in global flight demand in 2023 relative to 2019 [3], the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has advocated for the adoption of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). SAF offers a significantly reduced carbon footprint compared to traditional fossil fuels [4]. This is because SAF contributes to mitigating GHG emissions since it is produced from renewable energy feedstocks.

SAF utilizes renewable and sustainable feedstocks, such as biomass, organic waste, used cooking oils, vegetable oils, and other waste-derived feedstocks [5]. SAF is projected to contribute to a reduction of at least 65% of the GHG emissions required within the global aviation sector to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 [6]. Owing to the use of biomass as a feedstock, SAF has a lower carbon footprint than the reference fossil fuel [7]; the carbon dioxide released during combustion is roughly equivalent to the quantity sequestered by plants during photosynthesis in the production of the biomass [8]. Consequently, fuels derived from biomass possess a net-zero carbon emissions profile, rendering SAF usage effectively carbon neutral [9]. Furthermore, SAF can be blended with conventional jet fuel or used as a drop-in replacement in existing aircraft engines without requiring significant infrastructure modifications. This compatibility stems from its physicochemical properties, similar to petroleum-derived jet fuels, and its seamless integration with existing infrastructure [10].

SAF production reported about 600 million liters worldwide in 2023 [6]. Although production in 2024 was expected to triple that quantity [6], only 1300 million liters was achieved in 2024 [11]. Although it is estimated that SAF consumption will continue to grow, there is a significant concern about the availability of raw materials for this market [12]. Similarly, it is crucial for all actors in the supply chain to promote investments, policies, and regulations that encourage large-scale production and reduce associated costs, which is essential for increasing the production of SAF [6]. With the right support, UFAS can play a crucial role in a more sustainable aviation industry transition and contribute significantly to carbon emission reduction [13].

The routes to obtain SAF are classified according to the conversion process and the feedstock type used, whether waste, by-product, or co-product [4,5].

Table 1. Promising technological routes for SAF production.

Raw Materials	Technological Routes	TRL Level	Products
Vegetable Oils, Residual Fats: POME Oil, UCO, Animal Fats and Residues, FFA	Hydrotreating of esters and fatty acids (HEFA), also called Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil (HVO)	9−10	HVO: Renewable Diesel, BioJet
Cane sugar, beet sugar, and liquors	Light Paraffinic Hydrocarbons	7	Synthetic isoparaffins (sugars to hydrocarbons)
Alcohols (Methanol, Ethanol, Butanol)	Alcohol−to−Jet	6	Green Diesel, BioJet, Bionafts
Vegetable biomass, cellulosic waste, lignocellulosic waste	Gasification and Fischer-Tropsch	6	Green Diesel, BioJet, Bionafts
Biomass	Pyrolysis	5	Green Diesel, BioJet, Bionafts
Sunlight, CO2	Microalgae → Hydrotreating	4	Green Diesel, BioJet, Bionaphthas

Base information taken from the Clean Technology Guide (ETP) by [13,17]. POME = palm oil mill effluent. UCO = used cooking oil. FFA = free fatty acid. HVO = Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil. CO₂ = carbon dioxide.

shows the most promising technological routes for SAF production, where one of the main routes is hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA). HEFA is a mature, commercially available technology [13] that involves lipid hydroprocessing feedstocks, such as vegetable oils and their respective free fatty acids, animal fats and oils, waste oils, and used cooking oils (UCO). The process involves several catalytic reactions in the presence of hydrogen that generate hydrocarbon chains as main products, along with by-products such as propane, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and water [14,15]. Fischer-Tropsch is another of the most promising conversion routes, which involves biomass gasification to obtain synthesis gases and ultimately a liquid biofuel [5,14,16].

Currently, the technology available at an industrial scale is the HEFA pathway for producing SAF. In contrast, medium-term technology may involve the transformation of waste biomass to SAF through gasification, Fischer-Tropsch, or pyrolysis [17]. A general overview of these two technologies applicable to the palm oil sector is shown in Figure 1. The GHG emissions generated can vary depending on the route, process, or feedstock used to produce SAF [18]. Therefore, life cycle analysis methodology is essential to determine if the SAF used can reduce the offsetting obligations of aircraft operators under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) program [7]. In the CORSIA program, the system limits range from feedstock cultivation to the combustion of SAF, with 1 MJ burned in the aircraft engine considered as a functional unit (g CO₂eq/MJ).

Crude palm oil (CPO) is a vegetable oil with the potential to produce SAF. Although worldwide, the main market for CPO is the food segment (84%), about 16% of its consumption is to produce biofuels [19,20]. Therefore, CPO has a great opportunity to access new markets in the biofuel segment, as long as it contributes to GHG emissions reduction associated with the use of fossil fuels. The routes applicable in the palm oil sector include the HEFA route using CPO as a feedstock and the Fischer-Tropsch route utilizing palm biomass as a feedstock.

In Colombia, by 2024, a total of 7.8 million tons of fresh fruit bunches (FFB) were processed, yielding 1.72 million tons of crude palm oil (CPO) [20]. Although CPO is the primary product of the oil palm sector, it accounts for only 18% to 25% of the total FFB processed at the mill. Meanwhile, the biomass generated during CPO extraction contributes to about 45% of the total FFB processed. Thus, this biomass serves as a significant resource for developing products such as bioenergy, biomaterials, and biofuels [21,22].

Therefore, the country’s palm oil sector is crucial for satisfying part of the food and biomass demand required by the market to decarbonize the economy [23]. In Colombia, the palm oil sector has demonstrated significant progress in environmental performance, evidenced by the signing of Zero Deforestation Agreement, implementation of landscape management tools, the efforts in implementation of measurement and reduction in its water footprint, the application of sustainability standards (ISCC, RSPO, APS Colombia), the generation of renewable energy from biomass, and the adoption of strategies to reduce GHG emissions [20,24].

Previous studies have identified that fertilization, direct land-use change (DLUC), diesel consumption, and palm oil mill effluent (POME) treatment contribute most significantly to GHG emissions in the CPO production chain [22,25]. These emissions can be mitigated through effective low-carbon practices, such as the efficient use of chemical fertilizers, crop expansion into suitable and available areas, optimization of diesel consumption, and capture and utilization of biogas generated in the POME treatment system. It is estimated that, by applying these practices, the sector possesses the potential to reduce GHG emissions by 55%. Notably, the most substantial impact on GHG emission reduction is achieved through biogas (methane) capture, contributing a 35% reduction relative to the chain’s total emissions. In quantitative terms, if all methane generated in the POME treatment systems of the Colombian palm oil sector were captured, an estimated reduction of approximately 1.4 million tons of CO₂ equivalent could be achieved [26].

To contribute to global climate change mitigation, several countries have established specific GHG emission reduction targets. Colombia, for instance, has proposed a 51% reduction in its national GHG emissions, based on projected emissions for 2030 as a reference scenario, as outlined in Colombia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Update [27]. Considering this, the country’s palm oil sector holds significant potential to contribute to the national emissions reduction. This contribution can be achieved particularly through the capture of methane emissions generated in the POME treatment systems and their subsequent utilization in bioenergy generation, thereby supporting the nation’s energy transition and decarbonization efforts.

This study primarily aims to: (i) assess the carbon footprint of the Colombian SAF production chain, building upon CPO carbon footprint data previously established by the authors as a national average derived from primary data collected in the field; (ii) review the regulatory landscape for renewable fuels concerning their carbon intensity; and (iii) identify strategic opportunities for market access that prioritize low-CO₂-emission raw materials. This document systematically describes the calculation methodology, data acquisition sources, outcomes of the mass and energy balance, the GHG balance of the SAF production chain, the evaluation of relevant regulations, and the identified market access opportunities.

2. Materials and Methods

This section presents the study’s methodological approach, divided into four parts. Section 2.1 Briefly describe the geographical conditions of the study area and the characteristics of the palm oil sector. Section 2.2 explains the carbon footprint of SAF production from Colombian CPO, based on CPO carbon footprint data from a previous study by the authors, which used primary data collected in the field to establish a national average [22]. Section 2.3 provides a general overview of the economic aspects of SAF production using Colombian palm oil as a feedstock. Section 2.4 reviews current regulations for renewable fuels, especially regarding their carbon intensity. Section 2.5 explores opportunities for Colombian palm oil to access markets focused on CO₂ emissions reduction.

2.1. Study Area

Colombia’s climate is mainly shaped by its equatorial position, the Andes Mountain Range, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These elements create a mostly uniform tropical climate where temperature differences are influenced by altitude, resulting in distinct thermal zones (pisos térmicos)—the warm, temperate, cold, and very cold levels. The country’s climate regions are varied, including a tropical climate in areas like the Amazon rainforest and the Pacific coast, a monsoon tropical climate with a short dry season along the southern Pacific and Caribbean coasts, and a tropical savanna climate with alternating wet and dry seasons in the Atlantic lowlands and the Eastern Plains. Annual rainfall varies greatly across the country, from as little as 267 mm in the arid Guajira Peninsula to over 9000 mm in the extremely wet Chocó department [28].

Colombia has a total land area of 114 million hectares. Of this, the agricultural frontier, or the potential area for cultivation, is 43 million hectares, which represents 34% of the country’s total land [29]. In 2021, only 5.3 million hectares were registered as cultivated, which is a mere 13.5% of the total agricultural potential. National agricultural production in Colombia is favored by the country’s climate and biophysical conditions [28], which permit the cultivation of a variety of products, including cereals, fruits, legumes, tubers, vegetables, and tropical crops like oil palm.

In 2024, the cultivated area for oil palm in Colombia was 609 thousand hectares. This resulted in the processing of 7.8 million tons of fresh fruit bunches (FFB), yielding 1.72 million tons of crude palm oil (CPO) [30]. In the sector, 32% of CPO production is certified according to sustainability standards [20].

2.2. Carbon Footprint of SAF Production

The carbon footprint of SAF production is estimated to follow the life cycle steps described in Figure 2. First, the carbon footprint of Colombian CPO production, as raw material to produce SAF, is calculated. This includes the cultivation stage, FFB transportation, CPO extraction, and direct LUC associated with the establishment of palm crops. Second, the carbon footprint of the biofuel production process is estimated, including CPO transportation, SAF transformation, and SAF burning in the engine.

2.2.1. Carbon Footprint of Colombian CPO

For this study, we utilized a previously established database developed by the same authors [22], which was created to assess the carbon footprint of the CPO production chain in Colombia. The dataset was compiled directly from palm plantations and palm oil mills across the country. The life cycle assessment (LCA) inventory for the present study was generated from that collected data, incorporating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines, Ecoinvent emission factors (SimaPro 9 software, Ecoinvent v3 database), and national/international bibliographic and technical resources from the sector. The GHG emissions considered in the assessment included methane (CH₄) from anaerobic POME degradation, carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the CPO production chain, and nitrous oxide (N₂O) associated with soil management and chemical fertilization. In addition, direct LUC linked to palm cultivation was incorporated. The functional unit for the analysis was defined as grams of CO₂ equivalent per megajoule of fuel produced (g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹).

2.2.2. SAF Carbon Footprint from Colombian CPO, as Feedstock

The carbon footprint of SAF production is estimated following the CORSIA program methodology. This program aims to reduce GHG emissions by at least 10% compared to fossil fuel jet (89 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹) [7]. The input and output inventories for the HEFA route process are used to calculate emissions. A functional unit of 1 megajoule of energy (1 MJ) is established since biofuel energy is the primary product of the evaluated production chain. The impact is expressed in units of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂eq). Figure 3 shows the system’s limits evaluated to obtain SAF in this study.

Biofuel production via the HEFA route involves processes analogous to petroleum refining, specifically hydroprocessing and distillation. HEFA requires a hydrogen-rich environment, along with high temperatures and pressures (315–370 °C and 41–101 bar), as well as catalysts to facilitate chemical reactions and the formation of desired molecules [32]. In the HEFA process, the double bonds of fatty acids are saturated with hydrogen. The triglycerides are then catalytically separated into propane and fatty acids. Subsequently, the oxygen in the fatty acids is removed through two main reactions: hydrodeoxygenation (HDO), where oxygen is replaced by hydrogen, producing water (H₂O), or decarboxylation (CDO), where oxygen is removed as carbon dioxide (CO₂). HDO requires higher hydrogen consumption but avoids CO₂ emissions; in contrast, CDO generates CO₂ and methane, which reduces the liquid fuel yield. In both cases, the reactions are controlled by selecting catalysts and adjusting operating conditions. A third reaction, decarbonylation, can produce carbon monoxide and water. Vegetable oils with high levels of saturated fatty acids are particularly suitable for the HEFA route as they demand less hydrogen, thereby optimizing the process [33,34].

2.2.3. Data Source

CPO Production Chain Data

This section provides a summary of the data sources used to calculate the carbon footprint of the Colombian CPO production chain, as detailed comprehensively in a previous study by the authors [22]. The primary data used in the Colombian CPO carbon footprint were collected through field visits. This included information from 53 palm oil mills (POM), which collectively represented 85% of the national CPO production in 2021. Likewise, data on palm cultivation were gathered from 269 plantations, accounting for 36% of the national FFB production in 2021 [22]. The geographical distribution of these participating mills and plantations across Colombia’s four palm-growing regions (north, central, eastern, and southwestern) is depicted in Figure 4 (adapted from [22]).

(a)

Plantation management

Data collected from the plantations include inputs related to chemical fertilizers, organic fertilizers, agrochemicals, and fossil fuel consumption (transport and energy). Emissions from fertilization include fertilizer production and the direct and indirect N₂O emissions resulting from fertilizer application. Data was individually calculated for each participating plantation. However, to extrapolate emissions across all oil palm-growing areas, the average GHG emissions from these plantations were assumed to represent the total FFB produced per region in 2021. These regional values were then aggregated to determine the national GHG emissions for the oil palm sector. The nursery stage was not considered in the study [22].

(b)

Land-use change (LUC)

Direct LUC dynamics were analyzed at a 1:100,000 scale for Colombia’s Northern, Central, and Eastern regions, covering the period 2007 to 2020, acknowledging that Colombian palm oil cultivation is not linked to primary forest deforestation [20,35,36]. Satellite images from the LandSat program for the 2007 reference year were utilized. The Southwestern region (Tumaco) and the Urabá (Northern region) lacked sufficient cloud-free satellite images for LUC reporting. The oil palm cultivated area in 2020 was determined using the Catastro Palmero [37] layer.

Table 2. Land cover change in three palm regions of Colombia in the period 2007–2020 (adapted from [22]).

Land Cover	Central Zone		North Zone		Eastern Zone
	Area 2007 (ha)	% LUC	Area 2007 (ha)	% LUC	Area 2007 (ha)	% LUC
Oil Palm	113,175.75	57.4	77,714.10	66.2	127,929.01	47.4
Pastures	39,992.63	20.3	16,247.88	13.8	53,495.21	19.8
Fragmented forest	24,594.00	12.5	4984.20	4.2	13,049.43	4.8
Herbaceous vegetation	13,969.44	7.1	11,610.99	9.9	67,172.26	24.9
Other areas without vegetation	2378.69	1.2	6426.72	5.5%	7656.04	2.8
Wet areas	1174.69	0.6	N/A	N/A	251.86	0.1
No data	1752.69	0.9	351.90	0.3%	546.14	0.2
Area under oil palm plantation in 2020 (ha)	197,037.88		117,335.79		270,099.94

(adapted from [22]) shows the percentage of areas converted to oil palm in each palm region from 2007 to 2020. Following the IPCC guidelines, this study’s LUC calculations account for terrestrial carbon fluxes resulting from land conversion. These calculations utilized a 25-year plantation lifetime and included carbon stock values from below- and above-ground palm biomass [38].

It is important to note that this study is not based on the “unused land approach” principle nor on the “low LUC risk” approach of the CORSIA methodology. The LUC dynamics during the study period show that oil palm cultivation mainly took place on land that was already used for agriculture. This confirms that the areas converted to oil palm included lands already in production, such as existing oil palm plantations, indicating replanting and management on established agricultural lands. Additionally, the shift in pasture and herbaceous vegetation reflects a move from livestock or other crops to oil palms. Regarding the areas labeled as fragmented forests, it is noteworthy that this category is particularly significant because it aligns with the “CORINE Land Cover methodology adapted for Colombia.” These areas are not primary forests but small, isolated forest patches. The analysis of these fragmented forests distinguishes between those surrounded by pastures and crops and those with secondary vegetation, which are presumed to be areas where pastures or crops were abandoned, allowing natural vegetation to recover. These findings show that the expansion of Colombia’s palm oil sector has mainly focused on intensifying land already used for agriculture, aligning with international sustainability standards.

(c)

Palm oil mill

Palm kernel oil and palm kernel meal are included in this study. Fiber and shell are utilized in the boiler as fuel to generate steam. This study does not account for CO₂ emissions from the combustion of this biomass in the boilers, as biomass is considered a biogenic source [25]. A methane production rate of 0.36 m³ CH₄ kg⁻¹ chemical oxygen demand (COD) removed was assumed. For POMs equipped with anaerobic digestion ponds for biogas capture, biogas leakage was not considered in the original assessment [22]. For this study, a methane leakage factor of 5% was assumed for the covered anaerobic lagoons, consistent with data from [39,40,41].

SAF Production Data

The novelty of the present study lies in the assessment of the carbon footprint of Colombian palm oil-based SAF production. This includes detailed calculations for SAF production, which rely on data from technical literature concerning the Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) process. For this assessment, the CPO transport to the HEFA plant is estimated to be 50 km. Furthermore, the following key considerations were made: (i) GHG emissions associated with biofuels vary depending on the technical characteristics of the production process and the raw material supply conditions. (ii) The carbon footprint assessment encompasses processes from cultivation through the conversion of CPO into biofuel. (iii) GHG emissions from transport and conversion processes are attributed to using electricity, thermal energy, and chemical products derived from fossil sources. (iv) The produced SAF is allocated emissions based on an energy-based approach.

Consistent with international standards, the CORSIA program’s Equation (1) is used for calculating SAF emissions [31].

$${\mathrm{L}\mathrm{S}}_{\mathrm{f}}=\mathrm{C}\mathrm{O}\mathrm{R}\mathrm{E} \mathrm{L}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{A}+\mathrm{I}\mathrm{L}\mathrm{U}\mathrm{C} \mathrm{L}\mathrm{C}\mathrm{A}$$

(1)

LS_f = GHG emissions from SAF production (g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹); CORE LCA = data on CPO production as feedstock (FFB cultivation, FFB harvesting and collection, CPO extraction), feedstock transportation to processing and fuel production facilities, feedstock to fuel conversion processes, fuel transportation, and distribution to the blending point, fuel combustion in an aircraft engine = 0; ILUC LCA = induced land-use change due to raw material production.

According to Equation (1), a key component of CORSIA involves the treatment of Induced Land Use Change (ILUC), which refers to GHG emissions resulting from indirect land-use changes [31]. CORSIA adopts a consequential approach for ILUC emissions, which are then added to the core lifecycle GHG emissions (calculated using an attributional approach) to derive the total lifecycle GHG emissions (LSf) for a given SAF pathway. ILUC values for an eligible raw material are not measured directly by the operator/supplier; instead, they are derived from two distinct global economic models: GTAP-BIO and GLOBIOM. These models simulate the indirect land-use effects caused by increased demand for biofuel feedstocks. When calculating ILUC values for new pathways, if the results from these two models differ by 8.9 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ or less, the average value is used. If the difference is greater, the lower value plus an adjustment factor of 4.45 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ is applied [31].

CORSIA provides a default CORE LCA value for palm oil HEFA with methane capture set at 37.4 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹, while without methane capture, it is 60.0 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ [31]. Additionally, the CORSIA default ILUC LCA value for eligible fuels produced via the HEFA conversion process is 39.1 CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ [42]. Aircraft operators seeking to claim emission reductions from using CORSIA-eligible fuels can use either actual life cycle emissions or these default values for their calculations. It is crucial to note that both the default CORE LCA and ILUC values for palm oil HEFA have been established by CORSIA mainly for leading biofuel-producing and aviation fuel-consuming regions, including the USA, EU, Brazil, and Malaysia/Indonesia. As a result, other countries do not fall within this framework and lack CORSIA-specific default values, which affects their classification as eligible SAF feedstock producers [31]. Therefore, they cannot apply Equation (1) to determine GHG emissions from SAF production (LS_f).

According to CORSIA’s regulations, biofuel feedstock and its associated land use type are classified as ineligible if the combined emissions from direct land use change (DLUC) and the core life cycle analysis (CORE LCA) fail to meet the established sustainability threshold (DLUC + CORE LCA) [9]. This criterion ensures that the total GHG impact of a fuel source is below a predetermined limit (10% reduction) to be considered viable for the CORSIA program. It is also important to note that under CORSIA guidelines, and independent of the ILUC value established by ICAO for SAF feedstocks, the DLUC of these feedstocks is a mandatory component of the assessment.

Since Colombia’s palm oil lacks an established ILUC value; we estimated the DLUC according to CORSIA’s methodology, as it was shown in CPO Production Chain Data Section. This step is crucial for establishing a carbon footprint value for Colombian palm oil, which can then be used to benchmark against data from other producing countries. In the sensitivity analysis section, we present several scenarios to account for the uncertainty surrounding the ILUC value for Colombian palm oil. These scenarios are based on a range of assumptions to provide a more robust analysis.

Sensitivity Analysis

To assess the robustness of the calculated carbon footprint of SAF production and evaluate the influence of critical parameters, a sensitivity analysis was performed. This analysis specifically examined the impact of GHG emissions across the entire palm oil production chain under several distinct scenarios, focusing on (i) LUC impact, comparing scenarios that either incorporate or exclude the direct LUC impact associated with oil palm cultivation. (ii) ILUC impact of Colombian palm oil by comparing three scenarios. The first scenario assumes the same ILUC value as Malaysian palm oil, while the other two consider a lower ILUC value for Colombian palm oil, set at 20% and 30% of the Malaysian value, respectively. (iii) Closed pond treatment to meet the required emission savings by the CORSIA methodology. This comprehensive comparison allowed for a clear understanding of the individual and combined contributions of these factors to the overall environmental performance.

2.3. Analysis of Economic Aspects

A technical and economic analysis was conducted to evaluate the feasibility of producing SAF from palm oil in Colombia. The study examined two different scenarios, each with a capacity of 400,000 tons per year. The first scenario considers building a new, standalone plant, while the second involves converting an existing refinery. The financial assessment for both scenarios included capital expenditure (CAPEX), operating expenses (OPEX), the Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and the Net Present Value (NPV). Additionally, an analysis was carried out to measure how changes in sale prices, feedstock costs, and energy prices could affect the project’s overall profitability.

2.4. Regulation for Renewable Fuels in Line with CO₂ Emissions

A systematic bibliographic review was conducted to identify and analyze current regulatory frameworks to evaluate renewable fuels. This review encompassed European, U.S., and Colombian regulations, alongside relevant international standards applicable to the aviation sector.

2.5. Opportunities to Access Markets for CO₂ Emission Reductions

To assess market access opportunities related to CO₂ emission reductions, this study analyzes the business potential for SAF production from Colombian palm oil.

3. Results

Building upon the CPO carbon footprint data established in a previous study by the authors [22], the novel findings of the present work are detailed as follows: (i) the GHG balance associated with palm oil-derived SAF production; (ii) a general overview of the economic aspects of SAF production; (iii) an analysis of relevant renewable fuel regulatory frameworks; and (vi) an evaluation of market access potential for fuels that contribute to GHG emission reduction.

3.1. Emissions Balance

3.1.1. Balance of Colombian CPO Emissions

The carbon footprint of CPO is reported to be 4.81 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹. This value is determined through emission allocation based on the energy content of the co-products: CPO, palm kernel oil, and palm kernel meal. Figure 5 shows the carbon footprint and GHG emissions in the CPO production chain for 2021. This information is adapted from a prior study by the authors [22] in which the carbon footprint was calculated using economic allocation of the co-products 182 kg CO₂eq t⁻¹ CPO.

The primary contributors to these GHG emissions were methane (CH₄) from POME treatment and the application of chemical fertilizers. A significant finding from the previous study was that direct LUC related to national oil palm cultivation between 2007 and 2020 primarily involved transitions from existing agricultural lands, specifically palm-to-palm (55.3%), pasture-to-palm (18.5%), and grassland-to-palm (11.3%). While 7.2% of LUC during this period involved fragmented forest conversion, this represented a negligible 0.7% of Colombia’s total deforestation attributed to oil palm, as reported by Satelligence [36]. This finding is corroborated by the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM), which indicates that approximately 99% of oil palm plantations in Colombia are deforestation-free [43]. The Colombian palm oil sector has adopted Zero Deforestation and Non-Replacement of High Conservation Value (HCV) Areas as one of the ten Principles of Sustainable Palm Oil in Colombia, as outlined in the Colombian Palm Oil Sector Sustainability Strategy [20].

Some additional findings that stand out from the previous study [22] are (i) the Southwestern region reported the highest GHG emissions due to the LUC was primarily palm-to-palm, maintaining a carbon sequestration ratio of 113 t C ha⁻¹ between 2007 and 2021. It is important to note that the Southwestern region represented only 4.4% of Colombia’s total CPO output in 2021. (ii) The Eastern region exhibited lower emissions associated with FFB and CPO production, accompanied by a substantial increase in carbon sequestration within its plantations. Also, this region showed a low footprint attributed to a higher adoption rate of biogas capture in POME treatment systems, effectively reducing methane emissions. (iii) Biogas capture in POME treatment is a critical factor in reducing emissions. For 2021, seven of the 53 analyzed mills had reduced CH₄ emissions through biogas capture and flaring (five using it for electricity). Demonstrating a strong commitment to environmental performance, the Colombian palm oil sector is projected to achieve a substantial 25% reduction in CH₄ emissions from its 2021 baseline, as methane capture systems are implemented in twelve more processing plants between 2021 and 2024.

3.1.2. Emissions Balance of SAF Produced from Colombian CPO

The HEFA process inventories are based on information from technical and scientific literature; consequently, they may not accurately reflect industrial performance.

Figure 6 shows the emission balance of the palm oil-derived SAF production plant using HEFA technology, including bio-naphtha, and renewable diesel (RD) as byproducts of the process. The process is described in two main stages, each with a distinct impact on carbon emissions. This assessment utilizes carbon footprint data for Colombian CPO as reported by Ramírez-contreras et al. (2024) [22] described in Section 3.1.1. and accounts for an average transport distance of 50 km to the HEFA conversion facility. For the HEFA process, the primary emission contributors are the consumption of natural gas and hydrogen, which are required for both process operations and chemical transformations.

Emission allocation among the resulting biofuels was performed using the following key parameters: a feedstock factor of 0.71 t SAF t⁻¹ CPO (own calculations), a lower calorific value of SAF at 43 MJ kg⁻¹ [13], and an energy allocation factor of 0.8 MJ SAF MJ⁻¹ CPO (own calculation). The first stage, the HEFA conversion unit, integrates several inputs. The most significant of these, in terms of emissions, are natural gas (12.23 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ SAF) and CPO (5.79 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ SAF). These raw materials, along with hydrogen, energy, and transportation, are processed to generate a load of 20.01 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ SAF before moving to the next phase. The second stage is the fractionation unit, where the output stream from the HEFA unit is processed and emissions are assigned. As a result, the palm oil-derived SAF produced exhibited a carbon footprint of 16.11 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ SAF. This value thoroughly includes the direct LUC emissions associated with Colombian palm cultivation. This value is markedly lower than that of fossil aviation fuel (89.2 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹) and also significantly lower than the SAF footprints reported by Prussi et al. (2021) [4] for Malaysian and Indonesian CPO-derived SAF (37.4 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ with biogas capture and 60.0 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ without biogas capture). This analysis illustrates that the selection of raw materials and energy sources is crucial for determining the final product’s emission profile, highlighting the importance of natural gas and CPO in the overall carbon footprint of the process. While hydrogen is a key input in the HEFA route for producing hydrocarbons [13], the variability of its impact on the total SAF emissions directly depends on the hydrogen source, the technology used for its production, and its transportation [44,45]. This reinforces the idea that to achieve truly sustainable SAF production, it is essential to use hydrogen from low or zero-carbon emission sources.

3.1.3. Sensitivity Analysis

To achieve the objectives of the sensitivity analysis, three scenarios were assessed against a defined reference scenario. The reference scenario represents the carbon footprint of SAF produced from Colombian palm oil. This scenario is based on primary data from the Colombian palm oil sector in 2021, collected by the authors during field visits for a previous study [22]. Notably, in 2021, among the 53 surveyed palm oil mills (POM), only 6 reported methane capture through closed lagoons. Scenario 1 enhances the reference scenario’s data by assuming that methane capture is implemented across all surveyed POM. Scenario 2 is based on the reference scenario’s data but excludes all direct LUC emissions. Scenario 3 combines the conditions of Scenario 2 (i.e., without direct LUC emissions) with the inclusion of methane capture from all surveyed POM.

Figure 7 illustrates the combined results for the three HEFA-derived products—SAF, renewable diesel, and bionaphtha—across the reference scenario and the three assessed scenarios. Notably, for the reference scenario, 16.11 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ is the reported carbon footprint values for the HEFA process products This value is assigned to SAF and its co-products, such as bio-naphtha and renewable diesel. These values incorporate the DLUC associated with Colombian crude palm oil production and methane emissions reported by the surveyed palm oil mills (POMs) (6 POMs with closed ponds and 47 POMs with open ponds). Assuming methane capture for all POMs, as reported in Scenario 1, results in a carbon footprint −4.58 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ for HEFA products. This outcome is crucial as it highlights that the DLUC emissions from palm oil cultivation in Colombia are favorable, supporting CPO’s potential eligibility as a feedstock for sustainable fuel production.

Conversely, when evaluating the results without considering the DLUC from palm cultivation, the HEFA products exhibit GHG emission values 47.46 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹. Comparing this data with that reported in the reference scenario confirms the significant contribution of DLUC to the carbon footprint. Emissions values in Scenario 3 demonstrate a decrease compared to Scenario 2, indicating that methane capture is also a key low-carbon practice for mitigating the environmental impact of sustainable fuel production, as specified by the CORSIA methodology [31].

According to CORSIA methodologies [9], when a calculation for DLUC yields a negative value—indicating an enhancement in carbon stocks such as soil organic carbon sequestration or biomass sequestration in agricultural plantations, this contribution is subject to verification under the same criteria as CORSIA Emissions Units. Methodologies for accounting for these negative DLUC sources must be submitted to and approved by the CORSIA Sustainability Certification Scheme Evaluation Group. The calculation is performed using only these approved methodologies, even if the negative DLUC value is ultimately lower than the ILUC value assigned by CORSIA.

For the palm oil sector, CORSIA’s methodology addresses the treatment of Palm Oil Mill Effluent (POME) lagoons and their associated impact on GHG emissions [31]. Specifically, methane (CH₄) emissions arising from the anaerobic degradation of organic matter in POME ponds are a key consideration. The default methane emission factor for open POME ponds is established at 155 gCH₄ m³ of POME [31]. CORSIA emphasizes that for palm oil production, implementing methane capture and utilization systems (e.g., covered lagoons or digesters) can lead to a significant reduction in these emissions. This distinction is reflected in CORSIA’s default LCA values for palm oil HEFA; (i) HEFA with methane capture has an average value of 37.4 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹, whereas (ii) HEFA without methane capture has an average value of 60.0 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ [31]. Therefore, the CORSIA methodology formally recognizes closed lagoons as a technology that effectively reduces methane emissions from POME, directly influencing the carbon footprint calculation (as part of the core LCA) associated with palm oil production.

3.2. Analysis of Economic Aspects

This study compares two main business models for SAF production in Colombia, each with a distinct investment and profitability profile. For the raw material, a distribution was considered in which CPO constitutes 80% of the total. UCO accounts for 5%, while POME-oil and other fats make up the remaining 15%. The associated prices for these raw materials were established as follows: CPO: $1066 USD/ton, UCO: $1115 USD/ton, and POME-oil and other fats: $1018 USD/ton. It is important to note that the CPO price corresponds to the 2021 average national price. For their part, the prices of UCO and POME-oil were based on a reference price from October 2021, from which $180 USD/ton was deducted for freight and export costs. For the calculation model, it was assumed that all these prices would remain fixed throughout all years of the analysis.

The first scenario, building a new, independent plant, requires a total CAPEX estimated at $431.3 million USD. Despite the substantial investment, the economic projection is favorable, with an IRR of 16.9% and an NPV of $90.3 million USD. The investment payback period is projected to be 4 years. In contrast, the conversion of an existing refinery proves to be a more capital-efficient model. The required CAPEX is only $223.1 million USD, which is nearly half the cost of a new plant. This scenario’s profitability is significantly higher, with an IRR of 35.7% and an NPV of $276.2 million USD. The payback period is reduced to 3 years, making it the most attractive financial option.

The project’s profitability is highly sensitive to fluctuations in SAF sale prices and the costs of raw materials and energy. The study focuses on analyzing the impact of these variables on the IRR for the new plant scenario. For SAF prices, a ±2% variation in the sale prices of palm SAF and Class II fuels has a direct impact on the IRR. For instance, a 2% increase in prices could raise the IRR to 17.9%, while a 2% decrease could reduce it to 14.5%. The cost of raw materials constitutes a significant portion (70%) of total costs. The prices of CPO and used cooking oil (UCO) have a critical influence. A −2% decrease in these prices could increase the IRR to 21.8%, whereas a +5% increase in UCO prices could reduce it to 13.3%. Although natural gas and electricity costs represent smaller percentages of total costs (4% and 3%, respectively), they also affect the project’s viability. A 100% increase in natural gas or electricity costs could reduce the IRR to 16.1% and 17.8%, respectively. This economic analysis demonstrates that investing in SAF production from palm oil in Colombia is a sound decision, especially under the refinery conversion scenario. However, the project’s profitability is intrinsically linked to market price volatility, highlighting the need for careful risk management.

Our findings align with the study by Gómez et al. (2023) [46], which indicated that implementing SAF production in Colombia is feasible, though it involves some challenges that need to be addressed. The study used the PESTEL framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) to assess the country’s SAF development. It showed that although SAF is currently more costly than fossil fuels, its transaction cost depends on key factors such as the availability and price of raw materials, logistics, technology maturity, and regulatory environment. The study identified several viable technologies with production costs below $1 USD per liter, including HEFA, gasification with Fischer-Tropsch (FT), alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) conversion, and co-hydroprocessing in conventional refineries. Co-processing was highlighted as an appealing short-term option, given that Ecopetrol’s Cartagena refinery already has the necessary infrastructure for efficient production. Furthermore, Colombia’s lower carbon tax on aviation fuel (around $5 USD per ton) compared to countries like the Netherlands ($45 USD per ton) could offer a significant competitive advantage in SAF deployment. The report emphasizes that an initial phase with unregulated prices could motivate market supply [46].

3.3. Analysis of Regulations for Renewable Fuels

ICAO’s role and the CORSIA scheme

Under the guidance of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the aviation industry has prioritized the adoption of SAF to mitigate its environmental impact. To this end, ICAO has established the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), implemented as a key regulatory mechanism to reduce carbon emissions from international flights and contribute to global climate change mitigation efforts [47]. It is anticipated that the CORSIA scheme, in conjunction with SAF utilization, could facilitate a 65% reduction in GHG emissions within the aviation industry. However, the successful adoption of CORSIA by ICAO member airlines is a priority for meeting market expectations and requires robust national-level initiatives that foster SAF production and adoption within individual member states’ air operations. This is particularly critical given the rapid growth in the sector; in 2022, the aviation industry’s emissions were estimated at 800 megatons (Mt) CO₂, encompassing domestic and international flights, with a projected increase to over 1000 Mt CO₂ annually by 2025 [48].

Global policy frameworks and mandates

The overarching policy initiatives align with respective jurisdictional frameworks, such as the RED II for the EU and the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for the United States (U.S.). The “ReFuelEU Aviation” agreement, published by the European Union in 2023, establishes a significant, phased mandate for SAF incorporation into aviation operations. This mandate targets a progression from 2% SAF supply in 2025 to 70% by 2050, complemented by synthetic fuel blends [49]. In parallel, the U.S. has launched a fiscal policy and subsidy program specifically aimed at scaling up SAF production to 3 billion gallons by 2030, operating within the federal incentive framework [50]. Furthermore, state-level initiatives in the U.S. provide further incentives for SAF and drop-in renewable diesel fuel development. In Asia, Japan has notably proposed a 10% SAF mandate for aircraft operations by 2030 [51], while the Civil Aviation Administration of China has initiated a pilot program for SAF supply in aircraft operated by three national airlines [52].

In an analysis of regulatory frameworks for biofuel production, the USA. Clean Fuels Production Tax Credit (45Z), enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act, represents a significant policy shift [53]. Unlike previous programs that targeted fuel blenders, this credit directly incentivizes producers of low-carbon intensity (CI) transportation fuels, including biodiesel, renewable diesel, and SAF. The amount of the credit is tied to the fuel’s lifecycle GHG emissions, as determined by a CI score. To calculate this score, producers are mandated to use the 45ZCF-GREET model, with CORSIA methodologies also permissible for SAF [53]. This credit not only promotes decarbonization in the transport sector but also signals a strategic alignment with agricultural policy. The guidance from the U.S. Treasury proposes incorporating the benefits of climate-smart agricultural practices into the CI calculation, which could further lower a fuel’s score and financially reward farmers adopting these sustainable methods. Overall, the 45Z credit is a key mechanism for the U.S. to drive a cleaner energy transition while fostering domestic agricultural innovation.

Sustainability criteria and certification

The European Commission has formally acknowledged 15 biofuel certification schemes, including the International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC-EU) and the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB RED EU). Furthermore, the CORSIA program explicitly recognizes these two entities as authorized agents for certifying SAF under the ISCC CORSIA and RSB ICAO CORSIA schemes. This dual recognition across different regulatory frameworks underscores their critical role in ensuring the sustainability and traceability of biofuels in the global market.

Both CORSIA and REDII stipulate that only direct LUC occurring post-1 January 2008, are considered [9,54]. Furthermore, they mandate that feedstocks must be derived from land not designated as high-carbon stock, protected, or of high biodiversity value. Accurate calculations of LUC emissions are also a prerequisite for compliance. In the context of biofuel regulations, the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) initially classified palm oil as a feedstock with a high risk of direct LUC, linking its production to the conversion of carbon-rich lands, such as forests and peatlands [54,55]. Consequently, the directive mandated a progressive phase-out of biofuels derived from high-LUC-risk feedstocks, with a complete cessation planned by 2030 [56]. This policy has been further reinforced by RED III, which consolidates the disincentive framework for crop-based biofuels [57]. In line with the ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, RED III explicitly prohibits the use of crop-based oils, including palm oil and soy, for SAF production while prioritizing advanced and low-risk biofuels, such as used cooking oil and animal fats [49].

With the recent implementation of RED III, which entered into force in 2023, the European Union has significantly raised its renewable energy ambitions, increasing the binding overall target from RED II’s 32% to at least 42.5% by 2030 [57]. This heightened ambition in RED III translates to even stricter sustainability criteria and a greater push for genuinely low-carbon biofuels. While the core principles of DLUC assessment and productivity enhancement remain, RED III emphasizes preventing deforestation and peatland conversion.

CORSIA includes an exemption for feedstocks designated as low-risk for land-use change (Low-risk-LUC), provided they originate from cultivation practices that demonstrate enhanced productivity. Examples of these practices include improved irrigation techniques, intercropping, and mechanical enhancements. When this type of certification is obtained, the ILUC factor is assigned a null value (0), thereby reflecting its non-competitive stance against food crop cultivation [9]. It is imperative to note that the eligibility cut-off date for this modality is 1 January 2016, which makes practices implemented before this date ineligible for certification. The ILUC LCA value is established by ICAO on a country-by-country basis, corresponding to the feedstock’s country of origin. For instance, while the ILUC LCA value for Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil is 39.1 [9], ICAO has not yet defined this value for Colombian palm oil.

The CORSIA methodology for SAF production assesses a raw material’s sustainability based on its environmental performance rather than on its inherent classification as “good” or “bad” [9]. The methodology includes detailed procedures to calculate the life cycle emissions of any eligible feedstock, including those with low LUC risk, such as waste, residues, and by-products, and those from yield-increasing approaches. Consequently, the key determinant of sustainability is the environmental performance of the entire supply chain and its contribution to reducing GHG emissions from global aviation, not the raw material itself. This approach provides a neutral, science-based method for evaluating the sustainability of any eligible feedstock, regardless of its origin.

Colombia’s role in sustainable palm oil certification

It is important to recognize that within Colombia’s distinctive agricultural landscape, a raw material might be considered low-risk for direct LUC if its cultivation employed productivity-boosting methods different from conventional practices or if it was grown on previously degraded or underused land. So far, the Colombian palm oil industry has shown a strong commitment to sustainability schemes, with 26.3% of its CPO production certified by recognized programs like ISCC, RSPO, and the Rainforest Alliance in 2021 [20]. This dedication has opened new opportunities, such as certifying raw material production under the ISCC CORSIA scheme using the “yield increase approach”. This method is described as a land management practice that allows feedstock producers to boost the amount of crops they grow within a fixed land area, without expanding the cultivated land [9]. It is achieved through better agricultural practices, intercropping, sequential cropping, or reducing post-harvest losses. In this context, it is remarkable that two Colombian companies, Gremca S.A. and Alianza del Humea S.A.S., have already obtained this certification. Gremca S.A. became the first palm oil company worldwide to do so, proving its ability to produce palm oil that meets the strict international standards for SAF manufacturing, as guided by the ICAO’s CORSIA program [58]. Later, Alianza del Humea S.A.S. became the second palm oil company globally to receive the same certification [59].

Beyond its attainment of CORSIA certification, the Colombian company Gremca S.A. has become the first palm oil producer in the world to achieve “deforestation-free” certification under the ISCC-EUDR standard [60]. This achievement marks a milestone for the palm oil industry, demonstrating the viability of sustainable production practices and positioning Colombia as a leader in responsible agriculture [60,61]. The ISCC-EUDR certification is especially important for accessing the European market, as it meets the requirements of the EU’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which aims to ensure that products imported into the EU are not linked to recent deforestation.

Based on the sustainability certifications achieved by Colombian palm oil companies, the possibility is strengthened that palm oil can be used as a sustainable raw material not only for SAF production but also for any other product that requires demonstrating the sustainable sourcing of its raw materials. Oil palm in Colombia has the potential to gain access to regulated markets due to efforts to expand oil palm cultivation in available areas, areas without high carbon stocks or high biodiversity [25,62,63]. Furthermore, renewal is moving towards oil palm interspecific O × G hybrids, which have proven to have higher productivity compared to the commercial Elaeis guineensis cultivar.

3.4. Analysis of Market Access Opportunities

Worldwide, air travel and tourism contributed 10.3% to the 2019 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In the Latin America and Caribbean region, this contribution was significantly higher, at approximately 22.1%, highlighting the indispensable role of air transport in fostering regional and international connectivity [12]. In Colombia, air tourism accounts for over 85% of domestic travel [12], suggesting a substantial market opportunity for SAF adoption by airlines. While airlines are actively pursuing increased SAF integration to achieve carbon emission reduction and sustainability objectives, current market dynamics are characterized by limited production volumes and the cost-competitiveness of traditional fossil fuels [11].

Colombia faces a critical challenge: boosting SAF and renewable diesel production. This is essential to meet domestic biofuel demand, lessen reliance on imports, and strengthen the national economy. Developing SAF would contribute to strengthening the agriculture sector, create jobs, and support an economy centered on environmental services [64]. Colombia has a strong potential for SAF production, with an estimated production of at least 100 million gallons by 2035 and 450 million gallons by 2050 [64]. In the country, the palm oil sector has significant potential as a raw material supplier for SAF and RD production, due to its competitive advantages, namely: (i) a demonstrated commitment to sustainability, evidenced by the sector’s adoption of sustainable agricultural methodologies and dedication to forest conservation; (ii) a strategic geographic positioning within Latin America, facilitating regional SAF distribution; (iii) a low carbon footprint, with Colombian palm oil production exhibiting a significantly reduced carbon intensity (182 kg CO₂eq t⁻¹ CPO) compared to international counterparts (5 t CO₂eq t⁻¹ CPO); (iv) ample land resources suitable for oil palm cultivation; and (v) superior per-hectare productivity relative to alternative oilseed crops [20]. Furthermore, the sector’s adherence to a non-deforestation policy, corroborated by recent satellite monitoring data indicating 99% deforestation-free palm oil cultivation [36], is pivotal for biofuel sustainability certification, particularly concerning feedstock origin.

While the domestic utilization of SAF and renewable diesel offers potential for national economic enhancement, the export of SAF to European and United States markets represents a particularly significant strategic opportunity. In Europe, the incorporation of biofuel blends into conventional fossil fuels constitutes a central regulatory strategy for reducing GHG emissions and promoting renewable energy adoption. Specifically, Directive (EU) 2018/2001 mandates that Member States ensure a minimum 14% share of renewable energy across all transport modalities by 2030 [55].

In the United States, a memorandum of understanding among federal agencies, including the Department of Energy (DOE), the Department of Transportation (DOT), and the Department of Agriculture (USDA), has been established to formulate a holistic strategy. This strategy aims at cost reduction, sustainability enhancement, and the expansion of SAF production and deployment. This framework sets targets, including a minimum 50% reduction in life-cycle GHG emissions compared to conventional fuels, a domestic SAF production goal of 3 billion gallons per annum by 2030, and 35 billion gallons to satisfy 100% domestic demand by 2050 [50]. Consequently, a projected increase in global SAF demand is anticipated. Furthermore, CORSIA, implemented by IATA to promote SAF utilization in global aviation operations, plays a crucial role in incentivizing the production and adoption of these biofuels for GHG emission reduction within the aviation sector [9].

4. Discussion

The results of this study demonstrate the sustainability of the national crude palm oil (CPO) production chain. To further improve the CPO’s carbon footprint, it is essential to implement low-carbon practices tailored to each crop and each POM around the country. However, a holistic approach to decarbonizing SAF production transcends mere feedstock considerations; it demands integrating strategies based on the circular bioeconomy models across the entire lifecycle value chain.

For instance, in the HEFA process, natural gas and hydrogen utilization represent significant sources of GHG emissions. A potential mitigation strategy involves the robust integration of biorefinery systems within the palm oil sector. This could entail replacing natural gas with biogas obtained directly from POME treatment systems. Moreover, green hydrogen could be produced using surplus energy or biomass generated during CPO extraction. These strategies would not only enhance the GHG emissions performance of SAF produced from Colombian palm oil but would also reinforce the sustainability of the palm oil sector within the framework of the global energy transition.

To enable the advancement of SAF within Colombia and secure its access to international markets, the adoption of rigorous sustainability certification standards across the CPO supply chain is indispensable. Regulatory frameworks such as CORSIA and RED II, and increasingly RED III, serve as crucial instruments for validating economic, social, and environmental sustainability, thereby substantiating the legitimacy of raw material sourcing. Nevertheless, the commercial viability of biofuels derived from vegetable oils or biomass necessitate enhanced public engagement, technological innovation, strategic policy interventions, and infrastructural development to bolster production capacities effectively.

Beyond sustainability and policy considerations, the identification and evaluation of technologies for transforming raw materials into SAF are crucial for achieving demonstrable GHG emission reductions, as evidenced by carbon savings relative to reference fossil fuels [65]. The demonstrated sustainability in the Colombian CPO production chain, supported by certification mechanisms and the availability of suitable land (over 3 million hectares) for palm cultivation [66], strategically positions the country for developing a biofuel production strategy.

Water use is a key element for the sustainability of the palm oil sector. In Colombia, with its diverse climate and topography and facing an increase in intense drought and rainfall due to climate change, the palm oil sector has adopted and innovated efficient irrigation systems [20]. These systems are designed to adapt to the particular conditions of different palm-growing regions, aiming to mitigate adverse effects on crops. The sector, in collaboration with Cenipalma, supports key projects like the Palm Water Security Project and the Strategy for Sector Involvement in Watershed Management to improve water governance [20]. This management is based on Colombia’s hierarchical hydrographic structure, which facilitates coordinated planning for water conservation.

The Colombian palm oil sector’s sustainability strategy is built upon three key pillars. First, the “Sustainable Origin Colombia” pillar highlights the country’s unique attributes, with 32% of its crude palm oil production and cultivated area already certified under sustainability standards, including its own APSColombia certification. Second, the Environmental Performance pillar underscores a strong commitment to zero deforestation, confirmed by real-time satellite monitoring showing 99% of crops are deforestation-free. The sector is also implementing low-carbon practices, such as leveraging biomass for composting and biogas capture, which presents significant potential for advanced biofuel markets. Finally, the Social Performance pillar focuses on community development, evidenced by an 86% formal employment rate, fair wages, and a gender equity policy that has increased direct female employment by 17.5% [20,30].

This unique standing allows Colombia to distinguish itself from other prominent producers such as Indonesia and Malaysia. Furthermore, Colombia benefits from a strong national network of universities and specialized research centers that actively foster the generation of innovative solutions and facilitate the crucial technical-economic feasibility assessment of advanced biofuel production.

5. Conclusions

This research comprehensively evaluated Colombia’s crude palm oil (CPO)-based Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production chain. Our analysis focused on a detailed carbon footprint assessment, a review of renewable fuel regulations concerning carbon intensity, economic aspects and an exploration of market access opportunities for low-CO₂ emission raw materials.

Carbon footprint assessment

Extending the carbon footprint analysis to fuel production, SAF processed via the HEFA pathway from Colombian CPO yielded a value of 16.11 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ SAF, which includes direct LUC emissions. This value represents a substantial reduction compared to the fossil aviation fuel reference standard of 89.2 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹. Furthermore, it demonstrates a lower carbon intensity than SAF produced from CPO in Malaysia and Indonesia (37.4 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ SAF with biogas capture and 60.0 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹ SAF without biogas capture). A sensitivity analysis underscored the critical drivers of this low carbon intensity. While the baseline SAF carbon footprint is 16.11 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹, reflecting current DLUC emissions and existing methane capture practices, comprehensive methane capture across all surveyed mills could reduce the values to negative −4.58 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹.

Conversely, excluding DLUC emissions from the assessment significantly increased the carbon footprint to 474.6 g CO₂eq MJ⁻¹, thereby highlighting Colombia’s favorable DLUC profile as a major factor in its remarkably low overall CPO carbon footprint. This analysis confirms that both effective direct LUC management and robust methane capture are paramount for achieving exceptionally low carbon intensities in Colombian CPO-derived SAF, a practice critical for reducing the environmental impact of sustainable fuel production as outlined by the CORSIA methodology.

Market opportunities and strategic leadership

The presented research demonstrates that Colombia has a significant and promising role to play in the global market for SAF. By leveraging its abundant agricultural resources, particularly oil palm, and its commitment to robust sustainability certification schemes like ISCC and RSB, the country is well-positioned to become a key player in the decarbonization of the aviation industry. The successful certifications of Colombian companies, such as Gremca S.A. and Alianza del Humea S.A.S., under both CORSIA and the new ISCC-EUDR deforestation-free standard, underscore the viability of a sustainable and traceable supply chain. Colombia’s proactive approach to sustainability and its demonstrated capacity to meet stringent international standards position it as a vital contributor to a cleaner energy transition in aviation.

Currently, as an initial option, the conversion of an existing refinery is the most financially viable short-term option for producing SAF from palm oil in Colombia, with a 35.7% IRR and a 3-year investment payback period. This model outperforms building a new plant, which highlights the importance of capital efficiency and market volatility management. However, to fully realize this potential, a broader strategic vision is needed. Future research should explore a number of critical areas to strengthen the understanding of SAF production in Colombia. This could include economic optimization studies, expansion of feedstock analysis, and assessment of alternative technologies.

Challenges and outlook

The overarching challenge for Colombia now lies in scaling up SAF and renewable diesel production to meet domestic biofuel demand, reduce import dependence, and strengthen the national economy. However, it is vital to recognize that achieving economic viability for biofuels derived from vegetable oils and biomass requires broader public adoption, continuous innovation, supportive policy incentives, and substantial infrastructure development to augment production capacity.