EU Bioenergy—Status and Potential

Abstract

In the interest of climate protection and the promotion of a sustainable economy, the European Union (EU) is pursuing a policy of transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energies. The objective of this initiative is twofold: first, to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and second, to decrease the reliance on energy imports. This article utilizes publicly accessible databases and studies to assess the extent to which bioenergy (including fuels, heat, and electricity) contributes to these objectives and its long-term potential. Presently, bioenergy constitutes approximately 14% of Europe’s energy supply, with a share of 60% ranking as the foremost source of renewable energy. The evaluation of bioenergy-related GHG is hindered by the fact that the official databases do not satisfy the criteria necessary for scientific analysis. Further expansion of bioenergy should be based on European non-food biomass, as required by the current Renewable Energy Directive REDIII. Taking competing non-energy uses into account, the potential for further growth, contribution to total energy supply, and independence from imports is likely to be limited. As part of the strategic development of bioenergy, there is a considerable need for research into the use of biomass for competing energy and material use pathways, taking into account the different economic potential. To this end, the introduction of a new economic indicator of value creation intensity is proposed.

1. Introduction

The increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting climate change are issues of global importance. A priority countermeasure is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, the EU has established the objective of attaining climate neutrality by the year 2050, a commitment that aligns with the provisions of the Paris Climate Agreement [1]. Of particular concern is the reduction in energy-related emissions, as the energy sector is the leading contributor to CO₂ emissions [2]. With regard to the climate impact of the greenhouse gas CO₂, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) distinguishes between two carbon cycles of different durations: the cycle of fossil fuels, which lasts for thousands of years, and the cycle of natural photosynthesis and natural geological and aquatic sinks, which lasts from a few to several hundred years [3]. In terms of climate protection, the use of fossil fuels, which originate from the fossil carbon cycle, must be replaced by energy sources from the carbon cycle of biological systems and, preferably, by carbon-free energies. The latter are grouped under the umbrella term renewable energies. The EU has established ambitious targets for the introduction and growth of these measures, which member states are obligated to pursue [4]. An integral component of comprehensive renewable energy strategies pertains to the utilization of biomass for energy generation. This initiative is designed to contribute to two primary objectives: the reduction in greenhouse gases from fossil energy sources and the reduction in dependence on energy imports [5]. This article examines publicly available official databases (Eurostat), academic studies, and industry publications on the status and potential of bioenergy in the EU, including the raw material base and competing uses. It aims to analyze the quality of data on bioenergy, the current contribution of bioenergy to Europe’s energy supply, bioenergy resources, and the future role of bioenergy, including the need for further research.

2. Materials and Methods

This review examines the status of bioenergy in Europe and the question of what quantities of biomass and bioenergy from European sources are sustainably available. The criteria for identifying, screening, and including databases and studies in the review are provided in

Table 1. Criteria for systematic review of databases and studies.

Records	Criteria
Identification	Focus on energy, including bioenergy
Screening	Geographical scope on Europe Scope on all types of energy (fuel, power, and heat) Scope on all types of energy sources (fossil, nuclear, and renewable energy) Quantitative data on bioenergy (status and future potential) Scope on all types of bio-resources, including biogenic CO2 Quantitative data on bio-resources, including biogenic CO2 Time horizon up to 2050 Official, academic, and other professional sources Available in English Available online Published after 2010
Included	Geographical scope on Europe (EU with the current number of member states) Scope on all types of energy (fuel, power, and heat) Scope on bioenergy Quantitative data on bioenergy (status and future potential) Scope on all types of bio-resources Quantitative data on bio-resources

.

Included databases and studies can only be compared with reservations (Box 1).

In this review, data from different sources were neither normalized (e.g., aligned to the same year and system boundaries) nor subjected to an uncertainty assessment. If there are conflicting figures, this is pointed out but not analyzed in detail.

Energy data is given in peta joules (PJ). References to other units have been converted to PJ (1 ton of oil equivalent (toe) = 4.287 × 10⁻⁵ PJ; 1 ton of aviation fuel = 4.3 × 10⁻⁵ PJ). Emission intensity is given in gCO₂e/MJ.

Box 1. Comparability caveats.

Included data bases and studies differ in

• Methodology of data collection and analysis;
• Categorization of resource potential (e.g., theoretical, technical, economical, and sustainable);
• Geographical scope (e.g., the number of EU member states varies during the period under review;
• Regulatory framework (e.g., EU directives have changed during the period under review);
• Inclusion of future technical progress (crop yield, processing yield, etc.);
• Inclusion of competing raw material utilization pathways (energy and non-energy use);
• Inclusion of synthetic biofuels (based on CO₂ and synthesis gas);
• Inclusion of crop land availability;
• Inclusion of imported raw materials;
• Evaluation of lower/higher heating value.

This review distinguishes between biomass (from agricultural and forestry production and marine sources), biogenic residues, and bio-waste. Biogenic residues (solid, liquid, and gaseous) result from the processing of biomass. Bio-waste includes garden and park waste; food and kitchen waste from households, restaurants, caterers, and retail premises; and comparable waste from food processing plants [6].

A comprehensive search was conducted on the MDPI, ScienceDirect, and Scopus databases for document types including “article,” “review article,” “book chapter,” and “book,” spanning the period from 2010 to 2025.

Moreover, a comprehensive search was conducted using the following search terms: EU, Europe, energy, bioenergy, Joule, toe, Wh, biofuel, bioenergy, e-fuel, heat, electricity, energy, transport, agriculture, forestry, wood, woody biomass, primary biomass, biomass, waste, renewable, ethanol, biodiesel, biogas, natural gas, greenhouse gas, CO₂, emissions, carbon footprint, RED, REDII, REDIII regulations, directive, clean, sustainable, sustainability, land, use, share, and energy return ratio.

A review of information from the non-scientific literature was conducted to ensure that it does not contradict information from scientific literature. When information from non-scientific literature is used in this review, the text indicates this by citing the source.

3. Results

3.1. Europe’s Energy Mix

3.1.1. Primary Energy

In 2023, the primary energy output in the EU amounted to 23,159 petajoules (PJ). Since 1990, primary energy production in the EU has decreased by approximately 25% [7]. Concurrently, the proportion of imported energy sources has increased from 50% in 1990 to 58.4% in 2023. Oil and petroleum products account for the highest share of imports at 95%, followed by natural gas (90%) and solid fossil fuels (41%) [8]. The import share for bioenergy (i.e., biomass and renewable waste) is less than 5% [9]. The total importation of primary energy amounted to 45,452 PJ, while the exportation of primary energy reached 12,537 PJ [10].

3.1.2. Gross Available Energy

Accordingly, in 2023, the EU’s total gross available energy amounted to 56,074 PJ. This encompasses consumption for energy production (generation of electricity, heat, and fuels), transport and distribution losses, final energy consumption by end users, and consumption for non-energy purposes (e.g., fertilizers, chemical products, and road construction materials). Fossil fuels, which include solid fossil fuels, oil, and petroleum products, as well as natural gas, account for the largest share at 67%. Renewable energies constitute 19% of gross available energy. The EU has delineated a comprehensive categorization of renewable energies, encompassing wind, solar (including solar thermal and photovoltaic), aerothermal, geothermal, and hydrothermal energy sources, along with ambient energy, tidal energy, wave energy, and other marine energy, hydropower, and energy derived from biomass, landfill gas, sewage gas, and biogas. A substantial proportion of 14% is derived from nuclear heat, non-renewable waste, and peat [11]. Since 1990, there has been a marked increase in the share of renewable energies in primary energy, while the share of other energy sources has been declining. Between 1990 and 2023, a 10% decline in total gross available energy was observed (Figure 1), while during the same period the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP) exhibited an average annual growth of approximately 2% [12]. In all member states, there has been a significant decrease in the energy intensity of the economy over the last decade, with an average reduction to 4.2 × 10⁻⁵ PJ per EUR 1 million GDP (2023) [8].

3.1.3. Final Energy Consumption

The final energy consumption in 2023 was 36,566 PJ [13], indicating that 65% of the total available energy was consumed by end consumers. Petroleum products, including heating oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel, account for the largest share of this sector, constituting 37% of the total. Electricity accounts for 23% of the total energy consumption. The contribution of natural gas and synthetic gas is 20%, while direct use of renewable energies, derived heat, and solid fuels account for 13%, 5%, and 2%, respectively. Renewable energies contributed 8960 PJ, or 24.5% (2023), to final energy consumption [14]. End users consume these energies in the form of heat generated from them (45%), transport energy (29%), and electricity (26%) [13].

Eurostat’s data is contradictory when it comes to allocating non-energy consumption of 3022 PJ (2023) to final energy consumption or to the loss share of gross available energy (Box 2). According to Eurostat [15], non-energy consumption is included in the definition of final energy consumption. This would correspond to a share of 8.2%. However, according to Eurostat [14,16], non-energy consumption should be attributed to the loss of gross available energy.

Box 2. Data caveat.

For all totals in this paper, we follow the definition given in reference [15].

According to Eurostat statistics, the utilization of fossil fuels as energy sources for non-energy applications is predominantly oil and petroleum products (84.6%), followed by natural gas (13.4%) and solid fossil fuels (1.9%). Eurostat statistics do not encompass bioenergy sources that can be utilized for both energy and material purposes. A notable example from the United States illustrates this point. In 2022, the USA exported 1.9 billion liters of bioethanol for non-energy purposes, amounting to 0.064 PJ. This statistic underscores the necessity of considering the non-energy consumption of bioenergy sources [17].

Table 2. Final energy consumption by sector (EU, 2023).

Transport	Households	Industry	Services	Other
32%	26%	25%	14%	4%

presents a comprehensive overview of the consumption sectors. The primary sectors responsible for significant energy consumption are transport, households, and industry, which collectively account for 83% of total energy usage [18].

In 2021, bioenergy constituted 5132 PJ or 60% of renewable energies in the EU [9] (younger data are not available). The shares of bioenergy sources are shown in Figure 2 [19].

Figure 3 illustrates the share of bioenergy in renewable energies and final energy consumption for the year 2021 [9]. The chart distinguishes between bio- and non-carbon renewable energies. Biomass and energy sources derived from it, such as biogas, contain carbon and release CO₂ when burned. In contrast, renewable energies such as solar, wind, and hydropower energy are non-carbon energy sources that do not result in CO₂ emissions. Bioenergy accounts for 22% of the total energy consumption in the heating sector and 6% each in the fuel and electricity sectors. If we consider renewable energies alone, the importance of bioenergy in this sector becomes clear. Bioenergy provides 15.4% of renewable electricity, 88.4% of renewable fuels for transport, and 99.6% of renewable heat (2022) [20].

3.2. Biomass Resources

The EU possesses approximately 1 billion tons of biomass (dry weight). A share of 89% is produced in Europe, while the remaining 11% is sourced from imports and other external sources. According to a 2022 study, 51% of biomass is utilized for food production, with 42% allocated for animal feed and bedding and 9% food for human consumption. The remaining 12.5% is allocated for material production. Bioenergy accounts for 20% of total biomass consumption, while the remaining 16.5% is categorized as waste or lacks statistical documentation [21]. The products derived from usable biomass (830 million tons) generate a turnover of EUR 1830 billion (excluding primary production in agriculture and forestry). Figure 4 delineates the proportion of biomass consumption and the value-added material generated by these sectors (EU27, 2021) [22]. The food (including beverages) and material (paper, textiles, chemicals, plastics, and pharmaceuticals) sectors achieve significantly higher revenues than their share of biomass use, while the energy sector achieves less.

This distribution of use is undergoing dynamic development. Since 2015, the food sector has been growing at an annual rate of 2.9%. Material non-energy use has exhibited a 5.6% increase since 2015 [23]. The bioenergy sector has demonstrated the most significant growth, with a reported increase of 32% since 2010 [14]. The energy content of the total biomass in the EU can be estimated at 17,000–19,000 PJ, with an average energy content of 1.7 × 10⁻⁵–1.9 × 10⁻⁵ PJ/t biomass (dry weight) [24]. The production of bioenergy amounting to around 5400 PJ in 2023 already accounts for 28–32% of biomass. However, in 2016 the energy consumption of biomass in the EU was already documented with an energy content of 5835 PJ, which is equivalent to the current level of energy production. Different bioenergy sources or consumption sectors may have been included in the various analyses.

In 2022, 95% of the raw materials utilized for bioenergy were sourced from European regions (EU 27) [9]. It has been determined that 70% of the biomass used for energy production is supplied by forestry in the form of solid biomass, with the primary application of this biomass being heat generation. According to the most recent data, 18% of the total biomass is derived from agricultural sources. This biomass delivers sugars and starches, which are utilized in the production of bioethanol. Vegetable oils are employed in the production of biodiesel. Biogas is generated from energy corn, agricultural residues, and bio-waste. Straw is an agricultural byproduct that is utilized in the production of advanced fuels and of heat. Agricultural and forestry products are thus by far the most important sources of bioenergy, accounting for 88% of the total. Bio-waste contributes a share of 12% [20]. Marine resources account for less than 1% [25].

The main resource for biomass is, therefore, land. However, the collection of data on land use for bioenergy is complicated by the fact that biomass for bioenergy is only partially cultivated on land used exclusively for this purpose. When multiple cropping systems are integrated for the purpose of producing biomass for both food and bioenergy, the allocation of land in published statistics is unclear. An illustration of this phenomenon is the cultivation of wheat for food production and the subsequent utilization of wheat straw for energy purposes.

According to Strapasson et al. (2020) [26], 56.8% of the EU-28 area is dedicated to commercial biomass cultivation (2017), 40.8% of the total area is covered by wild biomass, and 2.4% is allocated for urban biomass cultivation. It can be posited that biomass productivity exhibits variation across these regions, thereby precluding a direct comparison of their bioenergy potential. Consequently, reliable data concerning land use for bioenergy in the EU could not be identified.

The assessment of land as a resource must also encompass an evaluation of the utilization of its biomass products. In 2014, for instance, the EU Commission issued a set of regulations for biofuels in the transport sector, with the objective of mitigating competition for land use with the food sector [27]. Another aspect to consider when assessing land use for bioenergy is indirect land use change (ILUC). ILUC leads to increased GHG emissions and negative effects on biodiversity as a result of the expansion of cultivated areas [28]. In order to protect biodiversity, the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 was adopted in 2020. The strategy’s overarching goal is to transform 30% of Europe’s lands and seas into effectively managed protected areas. The limited area available for biomass cultivation within the EU, not only for energy purposes, suggests that the expansion of bioenergy will lead to increased imports of biomass. This would result in the utilization of land outside the EU and the establishment of dependencies on raw materials, despite the EU Commission’s initial promotion of bioenergy with the objective of reducing energy import dependencies [29].

3.3. Bioenergy Potential Studies

Numerous studies on bioenergy in the EU have been published in recent years. The forecasts vary considerably, as the geographical scope (number of member states, inclusion of non-members) and scenario models differ. For example, a distinction is made between the theoretically available, technically usable, economically viable, and sustainably realizable potential of bioenergy [30]. Some scenarios include assumptions about land use, the mobilization of biomass, technical progress, bioenergy imports, and conflicts of use (food, feed, and non-energy uses) [31,32,33]. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, other models include carbon capture and storage (CCS) for fossil emissions, thereby reducing the need for CO₂-neutral bioenergy [31,34]. Furthermore, the studies differ in the extent to which the demand and development of other renewable energies is assessed and integrated [32]. Because of these differences, the studies cannot be compared directly. However, normalizing the study results is beyond the scope of this review and would be the subject of a separate research project. To give an impression of the range of study approaches and the resulting potential estimates, the data are therefore presented here as published in the studies. Key assumptions and results of five studies are listed in Supplement S1.

Figure 5 shows the range of results from five references. In an early study, Bentsen and Felby (2012) published estimates according to which bioenergy may even reach 56,000 PJ in 2050 from energy crops only [35], but none of the later studies follow this assessment. Panoutsou and Maniatis (2021) estimated the future annual potential of bioenergy in three scenarios for 2030 at up to 14,400 PJ and for 2050 at up to 15,300 PJ: 46% should come from agriculture, 44% from forestry, and 10% from waste [32]. This estimate was developed in consideration of the increasing demand for biomass in industrial applications and the expansion of protected areas designated for the conservation of biodiversity. The majority of studies expect from European feedstock up to 12,000 PJ of bioenergy in both 2030 and 2050, which could be expanded to up to 19,000 PJ including imports [31,32,33,34,35]. The share of imports, which stood at 4% in 2021, would need to rise to 60% by 2050 to reach 18,000 PJ or to 76% to deliver 19,000 PJ [32,33].

3.4. Greenhouse Gas Emission and Reporting

The emissions balance of bioenergy encompasses upstream emissions originating from the production chain, encompassing biomass cultivation, processing, transport, and distribution [36].

Table 3. Upstream and downstream greenhouse gas emissions from bioethanol as a biofuel.

Biofuel Production Pathway	Greenhouse Gas Emissions (gCO2e/MJ)
	Upstream		Downstream
	Crop-Cultivation	Processing	Transport and Distribution	Combustion
Sugar beet ethanol	12	26	2	64
Wheat ethanol	23	45	2	64
Corn ethanol	20	21	2	64
Sugar cane ethanol	14	1	9	64

illustrates the example of ethanol up- and downstream emissions of different production pathways starting from sugar beet, wheat, corn, and sugar cane [37]. Downstream emissions are directly proportional to the mass of carbon present in the fuel that is oxidized to CO₂. In contrast to the actual emission intensity of biofuels, which is, in the case of bioethanol, 64 gCO₂e/MJ for the alcohol alone, upstream and downstream emissions are variable and depend on local conditions. Due to the varying conditions for upstream and downstream emissions, different emission data are reported depending on the region. The environmental impact of biofuels for transport has been reported to be 12.1 gCO₂e/MJ in Sweden, while in Poland, it has been documented to be 81 gCO₂e/MJ, which is only slightly below the value for fossil diesel (95.1 gCO₂e/MJ) [38].

The most recent analysis of upstream and downstream GHG has been published by the EU Joint Research Center (JRC) for solid and gaseous biofuels in 2017 [39] and for transport biofuels in 2018 [40]. Like biofuels, bio-based heat and electricity encompass upstream and downstream emissions as well.

Given that the downstream emissions are of biogenic origin and are bound back into biomass through the natural carbon cycle, thereby not contributing to increasing the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere, the European Commission employs a standard emission factor of 0 gCO₂e/MJ of fuel for the statistical recording of CO₂ emissions from the stationary combustion of biomass fuels [41]. Neither emissions from the upstream chain nor resulting from ILUC are considered in this analysis. Furthermore, the flat-rate assumption of 0 gCO₂e/MJ does not take into account the time required for the complete binding of the released CO₂ in biomass (carbon payback time), which depends on the type of biomass cultivation, nor does it take into account the biogenic emissions from the soil associated with cultivation and fossil emissions from processing and transportation activities [42]. If CO₂ emissions into the atmosphere are reduced through CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) or CO₂ capture and utilization (CCU), this should be taken into account in the GHG balance [43,44].

Another salient factor that must be considered is the differential weighting of bioenergies, which is contingent upon the type of report in question. The multiple counting for quotas is an accounting weight, not a physical energy multiplier. For instance, advanced biofuels are given a weight of twice that of conventional biofuels in the calculation of fuel quota compliance, while renewable electricity is given a weight of five times that of conventional fuels [45]. This is not explicitly specified in the documentation.

3.5. Legal Framework

3.5.1. EU

According to the European Commission, bioenergy encompasses heat, electricity, and fuels derived from biomass. Biomass is defined as organic matter including trees, plants, and agricultural and (organic) municipal waste [46,47]. The legal framework presented below is intended to increase the share of bioenergy, improve its sustainability, manage competition for its raw materials, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

With regard to biofuels, the revised Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) establishes sustainability criteria, quality standards, and reporting requirements for emissions [48]. By the year 2030, member states are obligated to ensure that the share of renewable energies in final energy consumption for road transport is a minimum of 29%. Emissions intensity is to be reduced by 14.5% compared to 2010. Advanced biofuels and hydrogen-based fuels combined have to achieve a share of at least 3.5%. The EU Commission has called for bioenergy to be produced primarily from non-recyclable bio-waste and residues, including CO₂, as well as other alternative renewable fuels, with explicit reference to the principle of cascade use of biomass and the established waste hierarchy [48,49]. In addition to the EU targets, national biofuel policies that set national targets for the share of biofuels and the reduction in greenhouse gas intensity of fuels must be taken into account [50].

In 2023, regulations on sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) were enacted for the first time. These include biofuels derived from oils and fats, advanced biofuels, and synthetic and recycled carbon fuels. According to the sustainability criteria established by REDIII, the production of biofuels derived from food and feed crops is not permitted. The share of SAF at European airports is projected to increase from 2% in 2025 to 6% in 2030 and 70% in 2050. According to forecasts, demand for SAF will reach 2.3 million tons of SAF delivered to EU airports by 2030, equivalent to 99 PJ [51,52,53].

In 2023, the FuelEU Maritime initiative was established to address the challenges associated with maritime transportation. Maximum values were established for the yearly average greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of the energy utilized by ships with a gross tonnage exceeding 5000 calling for European ports. It should be noted that this directive does not contain any specific regulations on biofuels. To monitor greenhouse gas intensity targets, the fuels consumed on board are reported, regardless of whether they are bio-based or not [54,55].

The framework conditions for bioelectricity and bioheat are delineated in REDIII. The establishment of quotas has not yet been finalized.

The reporting of greenhouse gas emissions is subject to regulation. In accordance with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), EU Member States are required to submit national reports on the development of greenhouse gas emissions to the United Nations every two years. On this basis, the EU Commission therefore produces annual reports on progress toward achieving the Kyoto and EU emission targets. Since 2021, these reports have been incorporated into the integrated reporting system of the Regulation on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action [56].

The EU has established specific measures to support bioenergy. First, quotas for bioenergy are set that directly target the use of bioenergy. Indirectly, bioenergy sources classified as emission-free are supported by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), which puts a price on greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels [57]. Another indirect driver is the requirement for sustainability reporting (CSRD), which requires companies to disclose their ecological footprint [58].

3.5.2. Brazil

Based on its significant production of cane sugar, Brazil has supported the biofuel market since the early 2000s through tax incentives and blending quotas for ethanol and biodiesel. Since 2022, reduced taxation compared to fossil fuels has been enshrined in an amendment to the Brazilian Constitution. The drivers are the promotion of agriculture and climate protection [59]. Brazil exports a small proportion of biofuel (1% of ethanol produced, <1% of biodiesel) [60].

3.5.3. USA

The USA bioenergy policy aims to contribute to energy security and to the agricultural sector. Supporting measures include federal mandates and tax incentives. Another strong driver has been climate protection to date. However, this driver could lose momentum under the current administration [61]. Among bioenergy sources, biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel, lignocellulosic biofuels, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)) are prioritized [62]. Since 2023, the USA has been a net exporter of bioenergy, in particular ethanol and wood pellets [63,64,65].

3.5.4. China

China’s first energy law came into force on 1 January 2025. It incorporates CO₂ emissions into energy policy and regulates, among other things, the implementation of biofuels for transport and biogas. The drivers are energy security, including the reduction in energy imports, and climate protection. The law addresses the entire portfolio of bioenergy (biogas, biofuel, and biomass-generated power). Support is provided through subsidies and a quota system for renewable energy [66,67]. China is a net exporter of biodiesel [68].

Table 4. Bioenergy drivers, policies, feedstock, bioenergy share, and bioenergy exports in global regions.

	Driver	Policies	Domestic Feedstock	Bioenergy Share	Bioenergy Net-Export
EU	Climate protection Energy security	Blending quotas ETS CSRD	Rape seed Sugar beet Corn Wood	13% of total energy supply (2021)	No net export (2024)
Brazil	Climate protection Promotion of agricultural sector	Tax incentives Blending quotas	Sugar cane Soy	31% of total consumption (2023) [69]	<1% ethanol (2022)
China	Energy security Climate protection Reduction in energy imports	Blending quotas Subsidies	Rape seed Corn Soy Used cooking oil (UCO)	5% of total consumption (2019) [70]	>80% biodiesel (2023)
USA	Climate protection Promotion of agricultural sector	Tax incentives	Corn Soy	5% of total consumption (2023) [71]	12% bioethanol (2024) 93% of wood pellets (2023)

summarizes bioenergy drivers, policies, and results in different global regions.

3.6. Future Technologies and Infrastructure

3.6.1. Technologies

Numerous technologies for bioenergy (fuel, heat, and electricity) have already been established. The progress of their development determines, among other things, the energy yield that can be obtained from the raw materials. A comparative review of this aspect of bioenergy could not be researched within the scope of this paper. Further research is needed in this area. The following technologies are poised to make significant advancements: biomethane derived from biogas processing, fast pyrolysis, and thermocatalytic reforming of drop-in fuels, lignocellulosic fuels, and aquatic biomass to fuels [72,73,74]. Chaudhary et al. (2025) provide a current overview of research into biomass pretreatment and conversion technologies, including upscaling and plant optimization using artificial intelligence [75]. The methanization of bio-based synthesis gas (CO) and carbon capture and utilization (CCU) processes also lead to energy carriers. CCU has the potential to employ biogenic CO₂ emissions from biotechnological production processes (e.g., bioethanol) or from combustion (e.g., wood-fired power plants). One such reaction is the methanization of CO₂ according to the Sabatier reaction [76]. The use of CO or CO₂ requires the provision of reduction equivalents, i.e., energy. In these cases, more energy is used to produce the energy carrier than is contained in the final product. The energy return ratio (ERR), therefore, is less than 1. However, an ERR < 1 should not be considered an exclusion criterion, as such energy sources can function as storage for surpluses, e.g., from solar or wind power peaks.

An important driver for bioenergy is the reduction in CO₂ emissions from fossil sources, initially with the aim of halting the further increase in GHG in the atmosphere by 2050. After 2050, GHG concentrations in the atmosphere are to be reduced to pre-industrial levels. It is expected that the reduction in biogenic emissions, e.g., from industrial point sources (bio-CHP, fermentation plants, etc.), will also be targeted in order to achieve this goal. Accordingly, Mandley et al. (2020) conclude that 55% of total bioenergy consumption in the EU must be coupled with carbon capture and storage (CCS) [33]. A legal framework for the safe geological storage of carbon dioxide has been adopted by the European Commission [77]. In practice, however, only CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels have been treated with CCS processes in Europe to date. The most recent example is the planned capture and geological storage of CO₂ emissions from power plants in Copenhagen, Denmark [78]. Unlike fossil-fuel-fired power plants, however, bioenergy plants are generally relatively small and decentralized. How CCS methods and the necessary infrastructure need to be adapted to such plants has not yet been investigated.

Biorefineries and bioenergy plants generally have lower capacity than fossil fuel plants (refineries for fuels; power plants for electricity and heat). This is a significant competitive disadvantage, as it reduces economies of scale in investment and operating costs. The lower energy density and more complex logistics of bioenergy raw materials also have a negative impact on competitiveness with fossil fuels. The locations of biorefineries and bioenergy plants therefore tend to be decentralized in a catchment area around biomass cultivation areas or, in the case of municipal bio-waste, around residential areas. In order to link raw material extraction, processing, and bioenergy use, technical process chains must therefore be developed that optimize step-by-step processing in an economical and ecological manner. Such analyses are carried out by companies before investment decisions are made but are not usually publicly available. An exemplary scientific analysis of lignocellulose biorefineries that produce biofuels and biochemicals was presented by Zetterholm et al. (2020) [79].

3.6.2. Infrastructure

Compared to fossil raw materials, bio-based raw materials are characterized by lower energy density, seasonality, and greater susceptibility to perishable conditions. Consequently, the logistics and storage infrastructure for raw materials utilized in bioenergy production must be adapted to meet the specific requirements of these materials. Apart from local examples, there are no known plans or even preliminary studies at the national level of the Member States or at the EU level. An exemplary case study is Kalundborg (Denmark), where since 1972, nine private and public companies have strategically leveraged the synergies inherent in their material flows for a variety of purposes, including bioenergy production. Concurrently, these entities have developed a corresponding infrastructure [80].

The production of e-fuels derived from biogenic CO₂ necessitates the provision of hydrogen or electricity. Presently, 96% of hydrogen is produced from natural gas, primarily for the manufacture of chemical products and fertilizers, and accounts for close to 2% of the EU’s energy consumption. According to estimates by the European Commission, the demand for hydrogen is projected to reach 20 million tons (2400 PJ) by the year 2030, with 50% of this demand to be met through imports. According to the EU Hydrogen Strategy (COM/2020/301), which was adopted in 2020, hydrogen is to be produced from renewable energies [81]. In this regard, the European Union is committed to increasing its electricity generation from today to 14,860 PJ in 2030 (+48%) and 17,377 PJ in 2050 (+74%). According to ETIP (2021), the anticipated capacity in 2050 is 24,480 PJ (+145%) [82].

4. Discussion

This section discusses the issues that prompted this paper, namely the quality of data on bioenergy, the current contribution of bioenergy to Europe’s energy supply, bioenergy resources, and the future role of bioenergy, including the need for further research.

4.1. Bioenergy Database

Official databases (Eurostat) and comprehensive studies are available on renewable energy, bioenergy, biomass, and bio-waste. The latest data for bioenergy is reported for 2021, meaning there is a data gap for the more recent period. The database for bio-waste is particularly incomplete because bio-waste is not collected and reported in the same way in all Member States [83]. When it comes to GHG emissions from the production and use of bioenergy, it is worth noting that the EU’s reporting regulation focuses on fossil CO₂ emissions. Biogenic CO₂ at combustion is counted as 0 gCO₂e/MJ for stationary biomass in EU statistics, but upstream, downstream, and ILUC emissions are handled in LCA/RED accounting rather than national stationary combustion inventories. This makes it difficult to research data for scientifically sound life cycle assessments (LCAs). If greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are to be reduced to pre-industrial levels after 2050 in accordance with the Paris Climate Agreement, biogenic greenhouse gases must be included in monitoring. It is imperative that decision-makers in politics and business, as well as the general public, are made aware of this issue through scientifically accurate, transparent, and comprehensive reporting on biogenic emissions. There is still a considerable need for research on the accounting of biogenic greenhouse gases, including those mixed with fossil emissions, and on the statistical recording of non-energy use of biomass from industrial point sources.

4.2. Bioenergy Resources

The production capacities for biomass are constrained on both the EU and global levels. Three options have been identified for mitigating the adverse environmental impacts of land use for bioenergy in the European Union. Firstly, in theory, the volume of biomass available for bioenergy could be increased by reducing the large proportion of biomass used for animal feed. However, the European Commission (2024) estimates that feed requirements will remain stable over the coming years [84]. Another potential approach involves the importation of biomass or biofuels derived from it [85]. As shown in Table 4, the USA and China have already positioned themselves in the global bioenergy markets. Brazil may be ready to expand its production capacity to promote its agricultural sector. As potential bioenergy suppliers, they would have to comply with the EU’s comprehensive criteria for sustainable biomass. Another hurdle could be the EU’s stated goal of reducing its dependence on energy imports. The third option emphasizes the utilization of biogenic residues from agriculture, forestry, and the marine sector, in addition to industrial and municipal bio-waste. According to Mahro and Timm (2007), bio-waste and -residuals account for approximately 25% of the total biomass harvested worldwide [86]. Only a portion of this is already being utilized for energy production and material recycling. Considerable research is needed to quantitatively assess these three options, including the evaluation and development of processing technologies. It would be advisable to include the contribution of other (non-carbon) renewable energies to meet the net-zero target in 2050 in a scenario model. Byproducts resulting from the processing of biomass into biofuels and bioenergy also include CO₂, which is produced, for instance, in the production of biogas, bioethanol, and bioheat. Although CO₂ is not an energy source, it can serve as a carbon source for carbon-containing fuels and organic chemical products. Carbon capture and utilization (CCU) processes have the potential to convert CO₂ from biogenic sources into e-fuels. The utilization of CO₂-based e-fuels has been the subject of extensive research and successful testing over an extended period, particularly within the aviation sector. This sector is expected to maintain its reliance on carbon-based fuels with high energy density in the foreseeable future [87]. However, CCU for fuel or chemical products depends in every case on whether sufficient electricity is available to generate the reduction equivalent. In this context, the call to produce the required hydrogen exclusively from renewable energies must be critically examined, because as long as the necessary electricity capacities are not available, the learning curve with new technologies and the upscaling of production facilities will be delayed.

4.3. Energy- and Non-Energy Use of Biomass

Concerning biomass use, there is a general consensus among political, economic, and social actors that priority must be given to the food sector [88]. The two sectors undergoing a transition from fossil to biogenic raw materials are materials and energy. The energy sector has the potential to become entirely reliant on carbon-free energies, such as solar, wind, hydropower, and more, thereby eliminating the need for carbon-based raw materials. This strategy of decarbonization is not universally applicable, particularly in the context of organic chemicals, encompassing plastics and pharmaceuticals. These materials will remain contingent on the long-term availability of carbon. In the contemporary era, the European chemical industry has demonstrated a capacity to bind 124 million tons of carbon in its products, which would correspond to a biomass requirement of approximately 250 million tons. However, the chemical sector itself only anticipates a long-term biomass share of 20% in its carbon raw material portfolio [89,90], which corresponds to approximately 5000 PJ. That is the scale of today’s bioenergy. The question of whether biomass demand for the chemical industry on this scale can be met sustainably from European production, in addition to the demand for bioenergy, has not yet been conclusively answered. From an economic perspective, it should be noted that products derived from the biochemical functionalities provided by biomass generate higher added value than if only the energy content of biomass is utilized or energy carriers are derived. Figure 6 illustrates this using the example of value chains starting from sugar beet cultivation.

Sugar is refined from sugar beets and can be processed into energy carriers, polymers of varying quality, food additives, pharmaceutical products, and more. For ethanol, as an example of a biofuel, the added value remains lower than, for example, L-glutamic acid as a food additive, and much lower than insulin as a pharmaceutical. Ethanol itself can be dehydrated to ethylene and further processed into higher value-added polymers. However, this involves considerable effort in terms of production, quality assurance, market access, commercialization, and, in the case of pharmaceutical products, registration and approval (see Supplement S2). At the business level, there are therefore good reasons why companies focus their business on distinctive value-added stages, such as sugar refining or ethanol fermentation. Similar considerations apply at the macroeconomic level for regions or countries in terms of how to exploit biomass resources economically while satisfying the demand for raw materials for food, energy, and material use, and without overburdening natural resources.

There is a considerable need for research into macroeconomic strategies for regions to make optimal economic use of their biomass potential relating to biomass resources, carbon dependency, value creation, and energy alternatives [23]. Monitoring the implementation of the strategy requires an indicator or set of indicators that shows the extent to which the potential of biomass is being exploited under the conditions prevailing in the region in terms of biomass availability and industrial and commercial utilization options. The regulatory framework as well as social factors such as acceptance also need to be taken into account. The potential should at least take into account value creation, employment, and environmental factors such as GHG. Biomass should consider agricultural, forestry, marine resources, biogenic residues, and bio-waste. Utilization should analyze all technically and commercially accessible options. The total potential determined in this way is compared with the utilization achieved, thus determining an indicator of biomass valorization intensity. In simple terms, the indicator is calculated according to formula 1. The unit of biomass utilization depends on the subject of the study, e.g., EUR in the case of the economy, full-time employees (FTEs) in the case of employment, gCO₂/MWh in the case of energy utilization, etc. Due to these diverse aspects, cooperation between the relevant scientific disciplines is required in order to develop a corresponding set of economic, sociological, and ecological indicators.

Formula (1): Biomass valorization intensity

$$\mathrm{Biomass} \mathrm{valorisation} \mathrm{intensity}={\displaystyle \frac{\mathrm{Biomass} \mathrm{valorization} \mathrm{achieved}}{\mathrm{Biomass} \mathrm{valorization} \mathrm{potential}}}$$

(1)

The implementation of such an indicator would contribute to the balanced economic steering of biomass into material and energy use pathways.

4.4. Future Role of EU Bioenergy

An average annual value of up to 12,000 PJ is estimated for 2030, with potential growth to up to 19,000 PJ by 2050 if a significant proportion of imports are used. According to the IEA roadmap “Net Zero Emissions by 2050” [91] and Mandley (2020) [33], given the projected increase in overall energy demand in 2050, the share of bioenergy is projected to reach 18%. Non-energy uses of biomass are not taken into account. On the one hand, the REDIII guidelines on specific raw materials increase the uncertainty on future bioenergy availability, but quotas for defined biofuels, on the other hand, will contribute to a more accurate analysis. Overall, an increase can be expected in comparison with the current bioenergy share of approximately 14%, but it is rather improbable that bioenergy will assume a predominant role. It cannot be ruled out that the growing demand for biomass for non-energy use, together with the expansion of carbon-free renewable energies, will lead to a decline in bioenergy.

4.5. EU and International Bioenergy Policies

The bioenergy policies of the EU, the USA, China, and Brazil share the goal of strengthening energy security, including independence from energy imports, based on domestic sources. Climate protection, on the other hand, is a very strong driver in the EU but appears to be losing ground in other regions. Overall, growing markets for bioenergy are expected, which is likely to intensify international competition for the relevant raw materials. This creates export potential for regions rich in biomass. In the long term, the EU is more likely to import bioenergy, whether in the form of raw materials or commercial biofuels.

5. Conclusions

Presently, bioenergy constitutes 14% of the total final energy consumption of 36,566 PJ. The share in the heat generation sector is 22% and in electricity generation and transport fuels is 6% each. Within the domain of renewable energy, bioenergy holds the predominant share of 60%. While further increases are theoretically possible, they are limited due to concerns regarding sustainable land use and competing utilization pathways. In the short-term (2030), there is particular potential in the more intensive use of biogenic residues and waste, as well as in the importation of biomass. All these aspects must be explored against the background of land use competition. Furthermore, the development of bioenergy potentials must be analyzed in the context of other renewable energies, which, due to technical progress, are also developing dynamically. In addition, the non-energy uses of biomass, such as in construction and organic chemicals, must be considered. These uses have received comparatively less attention in the extant literature. In the long term (until 2050), these sectors are expected to gain importance as consumers of biomass and raw materials derived from it, thereby intensifying competition with energy use. In view of the rising demand for raw materials for industrial purposes, the trade-off between low-value energy recovery and higher value-added material recovery is becoming increasingly urgent. This foreseeable conflict of use, with its economic, ecological, and social implications, deserves close scientific investigation.